[SMM Data: Complete Summary of SMM March 2026 Import and Export Data] SMM March 2026 import and export data showed: copper cathode net imports were lower YoY; primary aluminum imports reached 255,000 mt, up 14.8% YoY; refined lead imports surged significantly; zinc ingot imports were up 220% MoM; tin ore imports were up 122% YoY; silver imports were up 93% MoM; steel exports rebounded MoM; PV module export value was up 122.7% MoM; silicon metal exports were up 43% MoM, and magnesium exports hit a multi-year high. Among new energy materials, exports of LiPF6 and artificial graphite surged significantly.

[SMM Platinum & Palladium Weekly Review] This week (April 20 – April 24), on China's Guangzhou Futures Exchange, the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 opened at 524.15 yuan/gram and closed at 498.3 yuan/gram, down 28.2 yuan/gram or 5.36% from last week's settlement price, with a weekly highest price of 532.35 yuan/gram and a weekly lowest price of 494.65 yuan/gram; the most-traded palladium contract PD2606 opened at 383.95 yuan/gram and closed at 359.65 yuan/gram, down 25.1 yuan/gram or 6.52% from last week's settlement price, with a weekly highest price of 390 yuan/gram and a weekly lowest price of 356.8 yuan/gram. Futures trading: the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 14,536 lots with a total turnover of 7.509 billion yuan and open interest of 15,520 lots, an increase of 98 lots WoW. The most-traded palladium contract PD2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 9,748 lots with a total turnover of 3.647 billion yuan and open interest of 7,843 lots, an increase of 428 lots WoW. [Key News] US-Iran conflict: geopolitical concerns resurfaced as the second round of US-Iran negotiations remained unresolved. Trump stated he had ordered the sinking of any vessel laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, announced a three-week extension of the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire, invited Lebanese and Israeli leaders to visit the US, and warned Iran that the US would resort to military means if Iran refused to negotiate. Iran stated the focus of negotiations had shifted from nuclear issues to a comprehensive ceasefire. US Fed monetary policy: Warsh expressed his policy stance favoring interest rate cuts at a Senate Banking Committee hearing and advocated a return of monetary policy to its fundamentals. This shift implies that the narrative of persistently excessive US dollar liquidity will face correction. Trade and tariffs: after the reciprocal tariffs were overturned, Trump continued to push high tariffs via Sections 122, 232, and 301. The final anti-dumping and countervailing duty ruling on Russian palladium at month-end may raise tariffs, leading to NYMEX palladium inventory buildup. South Africa's president accepted US credentials, marking a key step in rebuilding South Africa-US relations. If high tariffs on Russian palladium are officially implemented at month-end, the US may leverage the South African market to buffer the gap caused by the sharp decline in Russian palladium supply. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced that, effective from the trading session on April 27, the trading commission and intraday close-today commission for the platinum and palladium June contracts would be reduced from 0.025% to 0.01%. Events to watch: continue to focus on geopolitical developments in the Middle East and speeches by US Fed officials. Monitor the trial results of palladium in the fiberglass sector. Watch for the final anti-dumping and countervailing duty ruling on Russian palladium at month-end. Precious metals benefited from US midterm election dynamics. Strategically, maintain a bullish stance on platinum and palladium, with pullbacks as opportunities to go long. Watch for regional palladium premiums in the US market. In the short to medium term, the Middle East situation and the Russian palladium tariff ruling are key variables. Risk-wise, be alert to fluctuations in the Middle East situation and delayed expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts.

Today, the most-traded BC copper contract 2605 opened at 91,330 yuan/mt, fluctuated upward to probe 91,860 yuan/mt in early trading, then the copper price center gradually shifted downward to touch 90,650 yuan/mt after the daytime session opened, followed by wild swings, and finally closed at 90,860 yuan/mt, down 0.65%. Open interest stood at 4,313 lots, down 1,377 lots from the previous trading day, with trading volume at 5,290 lots, indicating bulls reducing positions. Macro perspective, US-Iran negotiations reached a deadlock and regional confrontation intensified, with Middle East geopolitical disruptions continuing to escalate; meanwhile, the US dollar index strengthened, exerting notable downward pressure on copper prices. However, Iran's exemption of Strait of Hormuz transit fees for friendly nations such as Russia eased market risk-averse sentiment to some extent. Demand side, copper prices fluctuated at high levels, and downstream enterprises adopted a cautious purchasing stance, mainly restocking on rigid demand with weak stockpiling willingness. Inventory side, as of Thursday, April 23, SMM copper inventories in mainstream regions nationwide decreased by 4,300 mt WoW from Thursday to 258,900 mt, with total inventory up 77,200 mt compared to the same period last year at 181,700 mt. SHFE copper 2606 contract closed at 102,460 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2605 contract at 90,860 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 102,671 yuan/mt, and the price spread between SHFE copper 2606 contract and BC copper was -211, with the inverted spread maintained and widened from the previous day.

Nickel prices trended higher in a volatile manner this week, with supply-side news serving as the core driver of price movements. At the beginning of the week, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract opened low near 140,010 yuan/mt. Mid-week, news that Indonesia's Weda Bay planned to halt production in May, combined with cost-side factors such as the implementation of Indonesia's new HPM tax policy and surging sulfur prices, pushed nickel prices higher for three consecutive days. On Friday, prices briefly broke through 146,000 yuan/mt, with a weekly gain of 0.99%. LME nickel strengthened in tandem, reaching a high of $18,850/mt, with a weekly gain of 4.11%. Spot market, the weekly average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 142,770 yuan/mt, up 2,000 yuan/mt WoW. Jinchuan nickel premium declined to 1,900 yuan/mt, and mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel remained at a discount. Rising futures prices this week suppressed downstream pricing willingness, and overall trading was mediocre. Macro and market news, SHFE added two Indonesian refined nickel delivery brands "Yongheng" and "Dingxing" this week, further expanding the channel for low-cost Indonesian electrodeposited nickel to register for delivery in the Chinese market, which will exert sustained restocking pressure on SHFE warrants and domestic refined nickel social inventory. Starting from the evening of April 21, overseas investors were officially permitted to participate in SHFE nickel futures and options trading, further enhancing the openness of the nickel product. On the macro front, Trump extended the US-Iran ceasefire deadline last week, but substantial progress in US-Iran negotiations was severely lacking this week. Iran stated it had "no plan to engage in negotiations in the near term," and both sides continued to blockade the Strait of Hormuz as a bargaining chip, with tensions re-escalating. Fed Chairman nominee Kevin Warsh explicitly refused to commit to interest rate cuts at a confirmation hearing held by the Senate Banking Committee this week, stating he would focus on "underlying inflation." Inventory, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was approximately 1,700 mt this week, flat WoW. Domestic social inventory was approximately 97,000 mt, an inventory buildup of about 3,300 mt WoW. Looking ahead, Indonesia's quota tightening policy continued to strengthen, the sulfur supply crisis intensified, MHP production was hampered, and sulfur prices continued to rise amid tight supply, providing strong cost support. Combined with recent news of production halts and cuts at Indonesian smelters, nickel prices are expected to hold up well. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 140,000-150,000 yuan/mt next week.

[Tug-of-War Between Longs and Shorts Continued, SHFE and LME Prices Fluctuated Upward] At the beginning of the week, boosted by optimistic sentiment over the easing of earlier geopolitical tensions, LME zinc edged up. Subsequently, as expectations for U.S.-Iran peace talks wavered and the Strait of Hormuz faced renewed restrictions, market concerns intensified, and LME zinc struggled to rise and continued to pull back.

At the start of this week, the market continued to trade on shifting sentiment around US-Iran negotiations and passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran initially indicated that merchant vessels could transit the Strait of Hormuz, which marginally improved risk appetite and kept copper prices fluctuating at highs. However, Trump subsequently stated that extending the ceasefire agreement was highly unlikely, Iran denied restarting a second round of negotiations in the near term, and renewed uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz situation pushed risk-off sentiment higher. By mid-week, Trump signaled an extension of the ceasefire with Iran without setting a clear deadline, and indicated that a new round of talks could resume as early as Friday, boosting risk appetite and sending copper prices higher again. On Thursday, however, renewed obstacles in US-Iran negotiations and escalating regional tensions strengthened the US dollar index, capping copper prices on the upside. Overall, the macro theme this week remained the repeated swings in risk appetite driven by shifting US-Iran negotiation expectations, keeping copper prices hovering at highs. On the fundamentals side, supply side, arrivals of imported copper increased marginally, but domestic copper supply remained tight due to smelter maintenance and relatively tight copper scrap supply. Demand side, with copper prices persistently elevated, downstream purchasing sentiment was generally cautious, with just-in-time procurement dominating for most of the week, and acceptance improving only marginally after price pullbacks. Inventory side, as of Thursday, April 23, SMM's nationwide copper inventories in major regions fell to 258,900 mt, with destocking continuing but the pace narrowing noticeably. Overall, the supply-demand imbalance this week was relatively small, with low inventories and tight domestic arrivals continuing to support prices, while high copper prices continued to weigh on downstream purchase willingness. Looking ahead to next week, the macro narrative is expected to remain largely unchanged for now. If US-Iran talks continue to progress, there is still room for risk appetite to recover, but given the repeated setbacks in negotiations and unresolved Strait of Hormuz disruptions, copper prices are likely to continue hovering at highs. Fundamentals side, increased import arrivals will provide some supply supplement, but tight domestic supply and continued inventory drawdowns should continue to support prices on the downside. LME copper is expected to fluctuate in the range of $13,100–$13,550/mt, and SHFE copper in the range of 101,500–104,500 yuan/mt. Spot side, against a backdrop of elevated absolute prices, downstream demand is expected to remain driven by just-in-time procurement, with spot prices against the SHFE copper front-month contract expected to range from a discount of 30 yuan/mt to a premium of 150 yuan/mt.

Teck Resources warned that rising diesel and freight costs could increase spending at its Chilean copper mining operations during Q2, as global supply tightened. The Canadian mining company said its Chilean operations relied on imported diesel and faced higher fuel and transportation costs due to supply disruptions related to the Strait of Hormuz, although no severe shortages were expected. "We expect freight costs to continue rising in Q2 2026, with explosives costs also increasing accordingly. We will continue to closely monitor developments, such as potential product export bans by major supplying countries, which could further disrupt the market," the company said. The warning highlighted broader supply chain pressures and the risk that government intervention could tighten metals markets, potentially prompting enterprises and strategic stockpiling of copper and zinc as demand strengthened. Alongside the cost warning, the company reported strong Q1 results that exceeded analyst expectations. This was primarily driven by higher copper prices, record sales, and increased production at its flagship mine, Quebrada Blanca (QB), in northern Chile. Production at the newly expanded mine grew 31.2% to 55,500 mt, compared with just 42,300 mt a year earlier when output was constrained by prolonged shutdowns. Despite a maintenance shutdown at the start of the year, performance remained on par with the previous quarter. Total copper production in Q1 reached 140,000 mt, compared with 106,100 mt in the same period last year. The company still plans to produce 455,000 to 530,000 mt in 2026 and 505,000 to 580,000 mt in 2027, while 2025 production is expected to be 453,500 mt, with the QB project expected to contribute 200,000 to 235,000 mt next year. Driven by growing power demand from data centers, artificial intelligence, and national defense, as well as expanding investment in power grid and electronic infrastructure, global copper demand is expected to surge 50% by 2040, benefiting Teck and its peers. Concentrates zinc production fell to 120,300 mt, a decrease of 17,000 mt from the same period last year. (Wenhua Consolidated)

The gold price edged lower at the start of trading on Tuesday, slipping below the $4,800 mark. Despite the recent decline in oil prices, the precious metal’s upside potential remains limited by persistent inflationary pressure, which continues to support the US dollar and keep US Treasury yields elevated.

[Inventory Trends Diverge Significantly in and outside China; Aluminum Prices Continue LME-Outperforms-SHFE Pattern] Negotiations in the Middle East experienced repeated twists and turns, and geopolitical risks had not yet fully been cleared. However, the widening supply gap outside China and the steady drawdown of LME inventory jointly supported LME aluminum prices in holding up well. In China, social inventory of aluminum ingots remained at elevated levels, with the strength of demand recovery and the pace of inventory drawdown becoming the core variables influencing SHFE price trends.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Increasing Maintenance at China's Secondary Lead Enterprises VS Easing Spot Premiums in Southeast Asia, Lead Prices May Remain in the Doldrums] US President Trump ordered the sinking of any vessels laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, claiming the strait had been "completely blockaded." Recently, the off-season trend in the lead-acid battery market intensified, with some downstream enterprises expanding production cuts, and enthusiasm for lead ingot procurement declined...