This week, ferrous metals edged higher before extending their pullback, with coking coal posting the largest decline. At the beginning of the week, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and other departments issued a notice on launching a three-year campaign for energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industries, and news that the U.S. and Iran were to sign a memorandum of understanding on the 19th improved market sentiment, lifting all ferrous metals. In the latter half of the week, expectations for an eighth round of coke price hikes materialized in the futures market. However, as steel mill profits narrowed further and spot coke had largely priced in the eighth increase, further upside room was limited. Combined with emerging expectations of peak hot metal output, futures began to correct and cost support weakened. Meanwhile, May macro data came in below expectations, dragging the entire ferrous metals complex lower...

[SMM Analysis] Stainless Steel Prices and Costs Rise in Tandem, Steel Mill Profits Slightly Recover but Struggle to Rise This week, stainless steel prices and production costs moved up together, slightly expanding steel mill profit margins. Taking 304 cold-rolled as the calculation benchmark, the profit margin based on current raw material costs stood at 2.31%, while that based on inventory raw material costs was 2.59%. Nickel-based raw material cost side, high-grade NPI prices rose sharply this week. Driven by both the sharp rise in SS futures and the gradual release of downstream procurement demand during the week, high-grade NPI prices moved up accordingly. Market expectations for further price increases remain relatively strong, with a notable willingness to hold prices firm. In the near term, high-grade NPI prices are expected to continue fluctuating upward. As of this Friday, mainstream 10%-12% grade high-grade NPI rose by 9 yuan per nickel unit, closing at 1,149.5 yuan/nickel unit. In the stainless steel scrap market, scrap prices edged up this week, bolstered by the combined boost from stronger futures, rising finished steel prices, and the recovery of high-grade NPI, with evident cost support. However, the market has entered the traditional off-season, with frequent production cuts at steel mills weakening demand expectations. Additionally, tax invoice issues have constrained trading activity. While short-term positives have supported firmer prices, under the dual pressures of weak off-season demand and industry pain points, further upside will struggle, and there is a risk of a pullback. As of this Friday, prices of mainstream 304 off-cuts in Shanghai rose by 100 yuan/mt, with latest quotations at around 10,550 yuan/mt. Chromium-based raw material cost side, high-carbon ferrochrome prices continued to edge down this week. Despite recent news of power supply tightness in the Mengxi region of Inner Mongolia, the impact on local high-carbon ferrochrome production...

[SMM Stainless Steel Scrap Market Weekly Review] Futures and Raw Material Linkage Boost Stainless Steel Scrap Market, Off-Season Pressure Limits Gains This week, the price of 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts in east China edged up, with a quotation range of 10,500-10,600 yuan/mt; in Foshan, the price of the same specification stainless steel scrap also edged up, with a price range of 10,400-10,700 yuan/mt. From a raw material production cost analysis, the cost of producing stainless steel using only stainless steel scrap was approximately 14,701.1 yuan/mt, while the cost using only high-grade NPI reached 15,168.67 yuan/mt, maintaining a considerable cost price spread. Stainless steel scrap prices edged up this week. Recovering macro sentiment during the week drove SS futures higher, with the positive momentum in futures transmitting to the spot market and driving spot prices for stainless steel products higher. Meanwhile, purchasing activity in the high-grade NPI market picked up, lifting raw material prices. Futures, steel products, and alternative raw materials formed a linked boost, pushing stainless steel scrap prices higher this week. Although the rise in high-grade NPI prices this week narrowed the economic cost advantages of stainlessless steel scrap, the overall cost advantages remained prominent, continuing to provide bottom support for stainless steel scrap prices and ensuring the market held up well. Overall, short-term positive factors drove scrap prices moderately higher, but bearish constraints remain in the market. The market has officially entered the traditional consumption off-season for stainless steel, with frequent news of production cuts and maintenance at stainless steel mills within the industry. Market expectations for stainless steel scrap demand are gradually weakening. Meanwhile, issues such as tight industry tax invoices...

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Macro Headwinds Drove SS Futures to Swing Wildly, Spot Stainless Steel Transactions Weakened but Prices Remained Firm According to SMM on June 18, SS futures were in the doldrums. Despite a pullback, the decline was limited, and the contract moved sideways during the day. As of market close, the most-traded SS futures contract settled at 15,150 yuan/mt. In the spot market, influenced by the sideways movement of futures and the approaching Dragon Boat Festival holiday, trading activity was mediocre under the combined effect of cautious wait-and-see sentiment and the holiday mood. Quotations remained firm, supported by steel mill guidance prices. SS futures, the most-traded contract: At 10:15 AM, SS2607 was reported at 15,060 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in the Wuxi area were in the 160-560 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, the average price for cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was flat. For cold-rolled 304/2B coil with raw edges, the average price in Wuxi was flat, and the average price in Foshan was flat. The price of cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in the Wuxi area was flat. For hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, the quotation in Wuxi increased by 70 yuan/mt. Cold-rolled 430/2B coil prices in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. This week, stainless steel futures and spot cargo experienced wild swings. Outside China, fluctuating macro expectations repeatedly disturbed the futures market, intensifying the tug-of-war between longs and shorts. The overall pattern was one of macro factors dominating futures trends, transactions fluctuating with sentiment, tightening supply supporting spot cargo, stable inventory, and slightly recovering margins. At the start of the week, macro tailwinds lifted market sentiment, and a futures rebound drove a recovery in spot transactions. Mid-week, hawkish expectations for the US Fed intensified, futures weakened again, and end-user …

In H1 2026, the Indonesian 10-12% high-grade NPI (delivered to port, tax inclusive) market trended steadily upward, with the SMM average price rising 12% compared to the same period in 2025. Price movements were characterized by “stepwise increases and fluctuations at highs.” Each round of supply-demand imbalance and policy disruption pushed prices onto a higher level.

[Molybdenum Express] SMM, June 18 – Tiangong International issued a June price adjustment letter for high-speed steel: Affected by the continuous rise in prices of alloy raw materials such as ferrotungsten and ferromolybdenum, as well as steel scrap, the enterprise issued a price adjustment notice: Effective from 00:00 on June 17, 2026, prices for all newly signed spot and contract orders would be uniformly raised. For all specifications, the base price of high-speed steel grades containing 1% molybdenum (Mo) would be raised by 500 yuan per mt. This price adjustment aims to stabilize raw material supply.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Stainless Steel Futures Stop Rising and Pull Back, Spot Trading Weakens but Prices Hold Steady According to SMM on June 17, SS futures showed a stop-rise and pullback trend. Although the overall nonferrous metals futures market strengthened today, SHFE nickel remained in the doldrums. Additionally, after a rapid successive run-up earlier, stainless steel lacked sufficient momentum for further gains, leading to a slight pullback in futures today. As of the midday close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 15,190 yuan/mt. In the spot market, SS futures continued to climb during the week, lifting spot offers in tandem and strengthening them, while purchasing demand was largely released early in the week. After SS futures declined today, inquiries and transactions weakened somewhat, but spot offers remained firm. The most-traded SS futures contract. At 10:15 a.m., SS2607 was quoted at 15,210 yuan/mt, up 115 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi ranged 10-410 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi was flat; for cold-rolled 304/2B coils with mill edge, average prices were flat in Wuxi and Foshan; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil prices in Wuxi rose 150 yuan/mt; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil offers in Wuxi increased 50 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. This week, stainless steel futures and spot markets both came under pressure and declined, with ex-China macro headwinds dominating the market and bearish sentiment spreading rapidly in the off-season. Industry expectations for the outlook weakened, end-users turned cautious, rigid demand remained sluggish, and traders concentrated on offering discounts to sell and destock. On the futures side, this week ex-China macro became...

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Extend Gains, Off-Season Stainless Steel Market Sentiment Warms Up According to SMM on June 16, SS futures showed a further strong upward momentum. Although SHFE nickel trended somewhat weaker, SS continued to hold up well. As of the midday close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 15,180 yuan/mt. In the spot market, driven by the sustained gains in SS futures, trading and inquiry activity for stainless steel picked up. At the same time, coupled with the news of delayed production resumptions at steel mills, although the off-season has already set in and macro uncertainties remain high, market quotes edged up to some extent on improved sentiment. The most-traded SS futures contract. At 10:15 a.m., SS2607 was quoted at 15,095 yuan/mt, up 240 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 125-525 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price for Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coil was flat; for cold-rolled mill edge 304/2B coil, the average price in Wuxi rose 75 yuan/mt, and in Foshan rose 50 yuan/mt; the price of cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi rose 100 yuan/mt; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, Wuxi quotes rose 50 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. This week, stainless steel futures and spot prices both came under pressure and weakened, as macro headwinds from outside China dominated trading and pessimistic sentiment spread rapidly during the off-season. Industry expectations for the near-term outlook turned weaker, end-users remained heavily on the sidelines, rigid demand stayed sluggish, and traders concentrated on cutting prices to sell and destock...

SMM News Flash: [Rebar] Today, export FOB prices for rebar rose slightly by about USD 2/tonne. According to market traders, inquiry activity was relatively decent, but actual transactions remained average. Some participants also noted that long steel demand in South America has been relatively stable recently, while demand in the Middle East remains weak. Regarding the US–Iran peace agreement, there has been no significant change in order flow so far, and overall market sentiment remains cautious and wait-and-see. [Billet] Today, export billet offers increased slightly by around USD 2/tonne, with prices at approximately USD 473–476/tonne FOB. Market feedback indicates that countries such as Indonesia and India are actively exporting billets, leading to intensified competition. However, domestic export price advantages are not obvious, as rising production costs are limiting steel mills’ willingness to discount, while traders are also more cautious in taking short positions. As a result, overall transaction activity remained moderate. [HRC] Today, export prices for flat steel products rose by USD 2/tonne day-on-day. Hot-rolled coil transaction prices were in the range of USD 497–506/tonne. Market inquiry activity was moderate, with no significant release of concluded deals. Recently, there have been some new inquiries for medium and heavy plate in the Middle East, with a portion of them resulting in transactions. [India] Ship-breaking scrap prices in the Alang (Gujarat) market increased by around 3 USD/tonne, with HMS (80:20) assessed at approximately 373 USD/tonne EXW. Semi-finished steel prices remained broadly stable, while finished steel saw a mild correction in the previous trading session. Market sentiment in Alang stayed subdued, as vessel arrivals remained at historically low levels. Strong freight economics continued to incentivize shipowners to extend the operating life of older vessels, limiting scrap inflows. In the near term, Alang scrap prices are expected to remain supported but constrained by tight supply conditions, with further movement largely dependent on vessel arrivals and downstream steel demand. [Thailand] Galvanizing quotes in the Thai market remained stable in the short term, with import offers still around 710 USD/tonne; however, for large-volume firm orders, the market could consider offering a discount of 5-10 USD/tonne. Wire rod quotes were also relatively stable, but some traders had to push up prices by 20 USD/tonne to 570 USD/tonne due to rising costs. In terms of local market transactions, downstream end-use demand was weak, and actual deals mostly shifted to a "negotiate deal by deal" model. It is expected that in the short term, Thai wire rod and galvanizing prices will hover at highs. Whether prices can subsequently stabilize on a solid footing will mainly depend on the release of downstream firm orders and the final bargaining and concession room offered by sellers under shipment pressure. [South Korea] Facing the approaching rainy season, South Korean builders are racing against time to push forward the final “intensive rush to meet deadlines” for foundation and main structure works, and the upward momentum of finished steel prices has slowed significantly. Today, POSCO’s two core steelworks (Pohang and Gwangyang) simultaneously raised the purchase price of high-quality pig iron scraps/premium steel scrap by 15,000 won/tonne (approximately 9.93 USD/tonne), and medium and light scrap by 10,000 won/tonne (approximately 6.62 USD/tonne), mainly to prevent domestic supply from being snapped up by other EAF steel mills before the off-season arrives. POSCO had no choice but to raise buying prices against the trend to “lock in” domestic spot cargo flows.

US iron and steel scrap exports totaled 1 million tonnes in April 2026, down 27.1% month-on-month and 4.7% year-on-year, per the US International Trade Commission. Canada was the top destination at 185,406 tonnes (+187.9% MoM), followed by Mexico (144,175 tonnes), Turkey (136,066 tonnes), and Thailand (79,886 tonnes). Export value reached 480.82 million USD, down from 669.24 million USD in March and 464.46 million USD in April 2025.