The global stainless steel market navigated a series of sharp sentiment. The opening weeks saw Indonesia's mill closures and price hikes push the cost narrative to its highest point of the year, before a combination of easing geopolitical tensions triggered the first price reduction since December 2025. The month's defining characteristic was similar to April's. What differentiated May was the sharply higher amplitude of both the policy signals and the emotional swings that accompanied them.

At 4:15 PM on June 8, 2026, a ladle explosion at the SMS-1 steelmaking shop of Visakhapatnam Steel Plant (VSP) — operated by Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited (RINL) — unleashed molten metal at over 1,500°C onto the working platform below Caster-2. According to a preliminary report by India's Chief Inspector of Factories, the cause was a sudden release of gas entrapped within the liquid steel, which ruptured the ladle seal before the sliding gate was opened, triggering a catastrophic spill.

[SMM Steel] Australia's Anti-Dumping Commission has launched an anti-dumping investigation into imports of zinc-coated (galvanized) steel from South Korea and Vietnam following a complaint filed by domestic producer BlueScope Steel. The investigation covers imports during January-December 2025, with allegations that the products were sold below normal value and caused material injury to Australia's domestic steel industry. The case adds to the growing number of trade remedy measures affecting global steel trade flows.

【SMM Steel】On Apr 10, 2026, the Guixin Steel Indonesia project, a JV between Guangxi Guixin Steel Group and Tsingshan Holding Group, was fully commissioned at the Tsingshan Industrial Park in Central Sulawesi. The project involved converting a former nickel-iron BF into a 1,216m³ carbon steel BF. The facility includes a 210㎡ sinter plant, two 12㎡ shaft furnace pelletizing units, a 100T BOF, and full-process CC & HR lines. It will produce >1.8 Mt/y of quality steel billets/products. SMM understands it currently mainly produces slabs, with billets expected in August and HRC later. The capacity will fill regional carbon steel gaps and impact semi-finished/flat steel trade flows in SE Asia.

War damage to Iran’s key steel mills threatens ~14 Mt of capacity, sharply reducing crude steel output and exportable supply. While domestic demand remains relatively stable, energy shortages and logistics disruptions amplify losses, tightening regional supply, supporting semi-finished steel prices, and reshaping trade flows.

Recently, the Malaysian stainless steel market has been roiled by supply chain disruptions as multiple shipments of cold-rolled stainless steel from Indonesian Tsingshan faced severe customs clearance hurdles. This abrupt "stuck at customs" situation triggered strong concerns among local downstream processors regarding supply stability and spot price volatility. However, a recent gazette issued by the Malaysian Federal Government has finally turned the tide, though the underlying policy chess game is far from over. The Resolution: Official Exemption for Specific Indonesian Entity On March 6, 2026, the Attorney General's Chambers of Malaysia officially published the Customs (Anti-Dumping Duties) Order 2026 (Amendment) Order 2026 under gazette P.U. (A) 120. This document provides a crucial correction to the anti-dumping policy regarding Indonesia. Under the amended schedule for "The Republic of Indonesia," the broad category of "Other producer or exporter" has been redefined to explicitly exclude PT Indonesia Ruipu Nickel and Chrome Alloy (a subsidiary of Tsingshan Holding Group) . Effective Period and Retroactivity: The amendment is backdated, officially effective from January 15, 2026, to April 23, 2026 . Affected Products and HS Codes: The policy applies to cold-rolled stainless steel in coils, sheets, or any other form with a thickness of not more than 6.5 millimeters. The specific Malaysian Harmonized System (HS) Codes are: 7219.31.00 00 7219.32.00 00 7219.33.00 00 7219.34.00 00 7219.35.00 00 7220.20.10 00 7220.20.90 00 (Note: Excludes cold-rolled stainless steel with bright annealed (BA), No. 8 mirror finish, embossed, rigidised, etched, or coloured finishes, or those with a hardness value exceeding 250HV). Historical Trace: Was the "Customs Hold-Up" an Administrative Glitch? SMM's review of historical gazettes reveals that Indonesian Tsingshan had long held a "tax-free shield." Back on April 26, 2021, when Malaysia enacted the Customs (Anti-Dumping Duties) Order 2021 [P.U. (A) 197], which imposed a 5-year anti-dumping duty on cold-rolled stainless steel from Indonesia and Vietnam, PT Indonesia Ruipu Nickel and Chrome Alloy was explicitly exempted from the onset. However, as the policy entered a renewal/transition phase in early 2026 (post-January 15), it appears an administrative oversight occurred. The exemption clause was not automatically carried over, causing incoming shipments to be slapped with the maximum 34.82% duty designated for "Other Indonesian producers," leading to the customs blockage. The retroactive amendment published on March 6 essentially rectifies this glitch, reinstating the company's exemption status and allowing the stranded cargoes to clear customs rapidly. The Ultimate Suspense: The "April 23" Sunset Countdown While the immediate clearance crisis is resolved, SMM notes that a much larger policy countdown is looming. The "April 23" deadline set in the latest gazette is not arbitrary. According to the original 2021 directive, Malaysia's 5-year anti-dumping measure against Indonesian stainless steel has a statutory expiration date of April 23, 2026 . This means the entire Southeast Asian stainless steel trade network will face a critical Sunset Review node in just over a month: Import Rush: With only a month left in this guaranteed "tax-free window," Indonesian exporters will likely expedite shipments. This could result in a short-term flood of Indonesian spot materials into the Malaysian market, pressuring local prices. Policy Reshuffle: Post-April 23, if the Ministry of Investment, Trade and Industry (MITI) does not extend the anti-dumping duties, other Indonesian mills will regain low-cost access to Malaysia. Conversely, given Malaysia's strong protectionist stance—evidenced by the 2023 administrative review [P.U. (A) 225] which levied duties against China, Korea, and Thailand—if MITI extends the measures, can Tsingshan maintain its exclusive exemption in the new cycle? This decision will dictate ASEAN stainless steel pricing dynamics in the second half of the year. SMM will continue to track MITI's upcoming sunset review announcements and customs data to monitor shifts in Southeast Asian stainless steel trade flows.

In January 2026, the European Union and India reached a historic Free Trade Agreement (FTA), with the elimination of steel tariffs of up to 22% becoming a major market focus. However, clearing the policy fog of "bilateral exemptions" and analyzing actual export and carbon emission data reveals that the steel industry faces a highly asymmetric trade reshaping. This seemingly fair reduction is actually Europe trading a "capped" ticket for India's "uncapped" massive incremental market.

February 2026 proved to be a pivotal month of challenge and adjustment for the global stainless steel market. Driven by the compounding pressures of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), intensifying geopolitical trade friction, significantly tightened raw material quotas, and sudden supply chain disruptions, the market navigated a complex landscape.

Reports from January 21, 2026, indicate that the European Union is preparing a potential €93 billion retaliatory package in response to the US administration's recent Section 232 proclamation on critical minerals and steel derivatives. This escalation in trade tensions threatens to disrupt transatlantic steel trade flows just as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) enters its tax-collection phase in 2026.

According to SMM assessment, the 300 million tonnes crude steel capacity target set by India's "National Steel Policy (2017)" is expected to be only about 80% achieved, resulting in actual capacity of approximately 240 million tonnes by 2030. Against this backdrop, if India's steel consumption maintains a 7% average annual growth rate, while crude steel production, constrained by the pace of capacity realization, achieves only about a 5% growth rate, and considering an 85% capacity utilization rate, India's supply-demand gap will continue to widen, with the net import volume projected to reach 25.5 million tonnes by 2030. This trend indicates that the pace of India's steel capacity expansion will consistently struggle to match the robust growth of its domestic demand. Even during the period of concentrated capacity commissioning, its vast domestic market will still need to rely on imports to bridge the supply gap. Simultaneously, in the high-end steel sector, due to gaps in technological accumulation and process levels, India's structural dependence on high-value-added steel will persist long-term, forming a "new normal" of "continuously expanding total gap and difficult-to-improve high-end dependence."