[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Retreat after Rapid Rise; Spot Stainless Steel Trades Cool Down According to SMM on August 5, SS futures generally pulled back, ending yesterday's shot up, and followed SHFE nickel to slump sharply. As of close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,475 yuan/mt. In the spot market, dragged by the renewed decline in SS futures, trading sentiment weakened notably, and traders lowered their quotes. Under the sentiment of rushing to buy amid continuous price rise and holding back amid price downturn, transactions turned visibly quiet. The most-traded SS futures contract: at 10:15 am, SS2609 was at 14,480 yuan/mt, down 390 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 490-890 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price for cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi held steady; for cold-rolled 304/2B coil with raw edges, the average price in Wuxi fell by 75 yuan/mt, and in Foshan also fell by 75 yuan/mt; the price for cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi was flat; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, quotes in Wuxi were unchanged; and cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan remained flat. This week, macro sentiment turned bearish, dominating metals market trends, and stainless steel futures consolidated on a subdued note under overall pressure. The US Fed's interest rate meeting this week kept rates unchanged as expected, but the overall stance was hawkish, weighing on commodity valuations broadly, and the nonferrous metals sector weakened collectively. Affected by the transmission of macro headwinds, SS futures consolidated on a subdued note in tandem, with the center of futures moving lower and overall market trading sentiment cautious. Spot and inventory side, futures...

[India] Alang HMS 80:20 ship-breaking scrap prices rose by USD 2/tonne day on day to USD 347/tonne ex-yard. Rolling mills increased procurement and replenished inventories after bookings for semi-finished and finished steel products improved. Regional steel prices also strengthened, with Bhavnagar billet rising to USD 436/tonne DAP and Ahmedabad rebar reaching USD 482/tonne ex-works. Scrap prices are expected to remain firm in the near term amid constrained supply and steady mill buying.

As of August 4, the operating rate of 50 EAF steel mills in China primarily producing construction steel stood at 33.58%, down 1.96% WoW; capacity utilization rate was 33.67%, down 1.64% WoW; and daily average production of construction steel was 75,000 mt, down 3,600 mt WoW.

Prices for AISI 304 stainless steel cold-rolled coils edged higher across Asian markets, supported by upstream mill price hikes and increased spot market activity, with cost factors underpinning prices despite sluggish end-buyer demand. Chinese export offers rose approximately US$30/ton week-on-week, driven primarily by climbing raw material costs and improved procurement from Southeast Asia. However, elevated domestic inventory in China continued to exert downward pressure on spot prices. On the raw materials front, Indonesian NPI prices edged up largely due to new export inspection regulations implemented by Indonesian customs, which have disrupted the flow of nickel product exports.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Center Moves Up, Spot Stainless Steel Market Sentiment Recovers According to SMM news on August 4, SS futures shot up and probed higher overall. Near the close of the night session, driven by fund operations, SHFE nickel and SS futures shot up quickly. Although SS pulled back briefly at the morning open, it had risen significantly overall. At the close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,470 yuan/mt. Spot market, buoyed by the rally in SS futures, traders for stainless steel agents raised their quotes even as steel mill spot guidance prices held steady. Market activity picked up and inquiry and transaction performance was moderate. The most-traded SS futures contract: at 10:15 AM, SS2609 was at 14,870 yuan/mt, up 345 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the 200–550 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, average prices: Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coil stable; cold-rolled raw edge 304/2B coil (Wuxi up 50 yuan/mt, Foshan up 75 yuan/mt); Wuxi cold-rolled 316L/2B coil flat; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil quote flat in Wuxi; cold-rolled 430/2B coil flat in both Wuxi and Foshan. This week, macro sentiment turned bearish and dominated metals market trends, and stainless steel futures consolidated on a subdued note under overall pressure. The US Fed left interest rates unchanged at its meeting this week as expected, but its overall tone was hawkish. Commodity valuations came under broad pressure, and the nonferrous metals sector weakened across the board. Dragged down by the contagion of macro headwinds, SS futures...

[8.4 Morning Briefing] Trump stated that an agreement has been reached regarding the Strait of Hormuz, and an agreement on denuclearization will also be reached, with negotiations scheduled to begin on Monday afternoon; Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei stated that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will not return to the pre-conflict state, and the new shipping lane agreed with Oman will be determined through mutual consultations. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract plunged below 130,000 yuan in the morning session, closing at 129,520 yuan/mt at the end of the morning session, down 1.91%. As U.S.-Iran negotiations begin, the Strait of Hormuz is expected to resume navigation, sulfur cost support has weakened, and nickel prices have fallen sharply. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 128,000-135,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Brief] Coking Coal Market: Linfen low-sulphur coking coal is quoted at 2,020 yuan/mt. On the coking coal side, the pace of production resumptions at mines is slow, with structural shortages of some skeleton coal types. However, demand is weak, some high-priced coal types remain under pressure, and traders and washing plants are increasingly willing to sell at discounts. In the short term, the coking coal market may continue to be in the doldrums. Coke Market: The nationwide average price of quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke (dry quenching) is 1,980 yuan/mt. Supply side, after two rounds of price declines, most coke producers are operating at a loss, leading to tighter coke supply. However, downstream steel mills are controlling coke arrivals, causing coke inventories at producers to accumulate continuously. Demand side, hot metal output at steel mills is unlikely to increase significantly, and finished steel prices continue to fall, making steel mills cautious in their coke procurement. Overall, market sentiment is negative, and there is still room for a pullback in coke prices. In the short term, the coke market may remain in the doldrums. [SMM Steel]

[SMM Analysis] SS Futures Pull Back, Stainless Steel Spot Trades Remain Sluggish According to SMM on August 1, SS futures showed an overall decline and pullback trend. Dragged down by the pullback in SHFE nickel, SS fell in tandem. At the close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,470 yuan/mt. In the spot market, SS futures retreated notably. Although NPI prices have been holding up well recently, lending cost support to stainless steel spot prices which fluctuated only slightly, market inquiries and transactions weakened further, and some agents lowered prices to take orders. SS most-traded contract. At 10:15 a.m., SS2609 was at 14,525 yuan/mt, down 185 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the 445-895 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi held steady; for cold-rolled 304/2B coil with mill edge, the average price in Wuxi dropped 25 yuan/mt, and in Foshan dropped 25 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi fell 100 yuan/mt; the quote for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil in Wuxi was unchanged; cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan was flat. This week, macro sentiment turned bearish and dominated the metals market, leaving stainless steel futures under pressure and consolidating on a subdued note. The US Fed kept rates unchanged this week as expected, but its overall tone was hawkish, broadly weighing on commodity valuations, and the nonferrous metals sector weakened across the board. Dragged down by the transmission of macro headwinds, SS futures followed suit and consolidated on a subdued note, with the center of futures trading shifting lower and overall market sentiment turning cautious. ……

[India] The latest market update reported that HMS 80:20 ship-breaking melting scrap in Alang fell by 3 USD/tonne to 342 USD/tonne ex-yard. Weak downstream steel demand and continued pressure on finished steel prices reduced buying interest, with purchasers limiting procurement to immediate needs. Although monsoon disruptions have constrained ship-breaking activity and tightened processed scrap supply, the shortage has not been sufficient to reverse bearish sentiment, likely limiting near-term price gains.

ArcelorMittal, the world's second-largest steelmaker, reported second-quarter core EBITDA of US$2.06 billion, beating the market consensus of US$2.01 billion by approximately US$50 million (+2.5%). The company expects European steel shipments to remain stable or edge higher in the third quarter, defying the usual seasonal slowdown. Supported by tighter EU import measures and rising steel prices, ArcelorMittal has restarted three blast furnaces and said it has further production flexibility if demand continues to improve. European crude steel production also increased by around 11% from the first quarter. Firmer steel prices and blast furnace restarts indicate continued improvement in European steelmaking activity, providing near-term support for seaborne metallurgical coal and coke demand. While the current recovery is not yet sufficient to shift the global supply-demand balance, further production restarts across Europe could strengthen support for international metallurgical coal prices.