[8.17 Morning Meeting Minutes] The overall increase in the US Producer Price Index (PPI) in July remained mild, indicating a further easing of inflationary pressures, and expectations for a US Fed interest rate hike in September cooled further. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract plunged sharply in early trading, closing the morning session at 127,300 yuan/mt, down 1.12%. The Indonesia Nickel Miners Association (APNI) recommended keeping the 2026 nickel ore RKAB at 270 million wmt and additionally setting a 30 million wmt strategic buffer, bringing the potential total quota to 300 million wmt. With expectations for looser RKAB quotas, nickel prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term, and the trading range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is 125,000-130,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Analysis] Futures Drag Down Stainless Steel Prices, Steel Mill Profits Narrow Significantly This week, finished stainless steel product prices and production costs pulled back slightly in tandem. Driven by a sharp decline in SS futures, the drop in stainless steel prices widened noticeably, and steel mills’ overall smelting profits narrowed significantly. Based on 304 cold-rolled calculations, this week’s profit margin was 0.24% based on current raw materials and 0.68% based on inventory raw materials. On the nickel-based raw material side, high-grade NPI ended its previous streak of gains this week and entered a pullback after the rally stalled. During the week, high-grade NPI prices fell under pressure as SHFE nickel futures declined and market sentiment was disrupted by news that Indonesian nickel ore approval quotas may increase. Dragged down by the continued build-up of market pessimism and narrowing profit margins at stainless steel mills, high-grade NPI purchasing activity remained weak and sluggish. As of Friday this week, the delivered duty-paid price in China for 10-12% grade Indonesian high-grade NPI fell by 2 yuan/nickel unit to 1,136 yuan/nickel unit. This week, stainless steel scrap prices held steady for the time being, but the market already showed clear signs of pressure. Affected by falling futures and lower finished steel prices, market pessimism continued to intensify. The weak downward trend in high-grade NPI kept narrowing the economic advantage of stainless steel scrap, and cost support continued to weaken. Although higher production schedules fueled expectations of a recovery in rigid demand, steel mills’ limited profit margins and cautious restocking attitudes provided insufficient support for the market. Against a backdrop of multiple bearish factors resonating, stainless steel scrap will weaken in tandem with futures in the short term and remain in the doldrums overall. As of Friday this week, mainstream 304 off-cuts prices in Shanghai were flat, quoted at 10,450 yuan/mt...

[SMM Analysis] Cost Fluctuations Under News-Driven Disturbances, Stainless Steel Profits Narrowed Stainless steel product prices and production costs pulled back slightly in tandem this week, leading to narrowed overall smelting profits at steel mills. Based on 304 cold-rolling calculations, the profit margin for the week stood at 1.7% when calculated with current raw materials, and 1.84% with inventory raw materials. Stainless steel mills still retained some smelting profits. For nickel-based raw materials, high-grade NPI prices consolidated on a strong note this week. During the week, SHFE nickel and SS futures experienced wild swings amid news of Indonesia’s RKAB supplementary quota, which led to fluctuations in NPI prices. Downstream steel mills are currently in the off-season for consumption and showed limited acceptance of high-priced raw materials. Moreover, the price swings further amplified the cautious wait-and-see sentiment, keeping overall purchasing activity subdued. As of Friday, the price of Indonesia-origin high-grade NPI with 10-12% grade in China rose 1.5 yuan/mt per nickel unit, to 1,138 yuan/mt per nickel unit on a cif basis including tax. Stainless steel scrap prices remained largely stable this week. Affected by the Indonesian news, SS futures saw wild swings, while spot products pulled back slightly but showed notable resilience. High-grade NPI prices held up well, and with the tug-of-war between longs and shorts, stainless steel scrap held steady, supported by its cost advantages. While expectations improved for better rigid demand amid the higher August production schedule, end-use demand in the off-season remained sluggish, steel mill profits were constrained, and the desire to bargain down prices persisted, limiting overall upside room. In the short term, prices are expected to maintain a broadly steady, consolidating pattern. As of Friday, mainstream 304 off-cuts in Shanghai were unchanged at 10,450 yuan/mt. For chrome-based raw materials, high-carbon ferrochrome prices pulled back slightly this week. Although the market expects stainless steel output to increase in August...

[SMM Stainless Steel Scrap Weekly Review] Cost Advantages Underpin Stainless Steel Scrap Holding Steady; Weak Off-Season Demand Caps Upside Room This week, the price of 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts in east China remained unchanged, with a quotation range of 10,400-10,500 yuan/mt; prices in Foshan pulled back slightly, within a range of 10,200-10,500 yuan/mt. An analysis of raw material production costs shows that the cost of producing stainless steel using only stainless steel scrap is about 14,607.48 yuan/mt, while using only high-grade NPI reaches 14,968.22 yuan/mt, with the two maintaining a stable cost spread. Stainless steel scrap prices were broadly stable this week. Indonesian news disrupted market sentiment during the week, and SS futures swung wildly. The futures fluctuations transmitted to the spot market, driving concurrent swings in spot stainless steel products, but overall prices only pulled back slightly, highlighting the resilience of spot prices. The price of the alternative raw material high-grade NPI continued to consolidate on a strong note, and the overall tone on the raw material side was relatively steady. Caught in a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish factors, stainless steel scrap prices remained stable during the week. Overall, cost advantages and production resumption expectations provided support, but end-user off-season fundamentals continued to suppress price increases. The market is still in the traditional stainless steel consumption off-season, and downstream end-user demand for finished steel products is generally weak, leaving the market without a sustained upward driver from end-user demand. Although the market expects stainless steel production schedules to improve in August, which may lift rigid demand for stainless steel scrap, and the current economic advantages of stainless steel scrap remain in place, providing potential bullish support for the market…

[SMM Analysis] Off-season Stainless Steel Prices and Costs Fluctuate Limitedly, Steel Mill Profits Basically Stable This week, stainless steel finished product prices remained stable, while production costs edged up slightly but with limited gains, resulting in basically stable overall smelting profits at steel mills. Based on 304 cold-rolling calculations, this week’s profit margins stood at 2.01% when using current raw materials and 2.15% when using inventory raw materials, indicating that stainless steel mills still retained certain smelting profits. On the nickel raw material side, high-grade NPI prices rose and strengthened this week. Shipment disruptions of Indonesian high-grade NPI, combined with month-end restocking purchases by some stainless steel mills and relatively optimistic market expectations for forward NPI prices, drove the price increase. Although mainstream stainless steel mills currently hold sufficient nickel pig iron raw material inventories and spot purchases remained weak, forward order transactions recovered significantly, pushing prices higher. As of this Friday, the delivered duty-paid price of Indonesia-origin high-grade NPI with 10-12% nickel content in China rose by 4 yuan/nickel unit to 1,136.5 yuan/nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap prices remained stable this week, with limited impact from futures consolidation and a slight recovery in NPI. Compared to nickel pig iron, the economic advantage of stainless steel scrap became more apparent, providing solid bottom support for prices; expectations of steel mill production resumptions in August also lent positive support. However, narrow profit margins at steel mills and weak end-use demand made cost pass-through difficult, significantly capping the upside room for prices. Overall, in the short term, stainless steel scrap will maintain a consolidating pattern supported by cost advantages and production resumption expectations, with limited overall upside room. As of this Friday, mainstream 304 off-cuts in the Shanghai area rose by 200 yuan/mt to 10,450 yuan/mt. Chromium-based raw materials…

[SMM Stainless Steel Scrap Market Weekly Review] Cost Advantages Underpin Stainless Steel Scrap Market, End-Use Demand Weakness Restrains Short-Term Upside Room This week, 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts prices in east China were flat, with a quotation range of 10,400-10,500 yuan/mt; in the Foshan area, 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts prices remained stable in tandem, within a price range of 10,300-10,600 yuan/mt. From a raw material cost analysis perspective, the current cost of producing stainless steel entirely with stainless steel scrap is about 14,607.48 yuan/mt, while that with high-grade NPI is as high as 14,995.22 yuan/mt, with the two maintaining a stable cost price spread. This week, stainless steel scrap prices remained generally stable. During the week, SS futures showed a consolidation pattern of first declining and then rising, and the fluctuations in futures did not provide clear guidance for the spot market. Stainless steel product spot prices consolidated in tandem, with overall prices basically flat compared to last week. At month-end, stainless steel mills initiated a tender for high-grade NPI procurement, driving NPI prices to rebound slightly, but the extent of the increase was relatively limited, and the upward support from the raw material side was weak, keeping the overall stainless steel scrap market stable. Along with the slight recovery in high-grade NPI prices, the cost advantage of stainless steel scrap relative to it has increased, further highlighting its cost substitution competitiveness and forming solid bottom support for scrap prices. Overall, costs and expectations provided support, but end-use fundamentals continued to suppress the market's upward trend. As some stainless steel mills gradually wrap up previous production cuts and maintenance, the market expects stainless steel production to rebound in August, corresponding rigid demand for stainless steel scrap is expected to increase, combined with the current scrap...

[SMM Analysis] Stainless Steel Products and Costs Edge Up in Tandem, Steel Mill Profits Stable This week, stainless steel product prices and production costs edged up in tandem, while steel mill smelting profits remained basically stable overall. Based on calculations for 304 cold-rolling, the profit margin this week was 2.15% when accounting for raw materials at current prices and 1.11% when accounting for inventory raw materials, indicating that stainless steel mills still maintain certain smelting profits. Nickel-based raw materials side, high-grade NPI prices were largely stable this week. Although SHFE nickel and SS futures held up well overall during the week, the current traditional consumption off-season for stainless steel meant steel mills' purchase demand for NPI remained persistently weak, with very few actual transactions concluded recently. Amid the tug-of-war between longs and shorts, NPI prices remained steady this week. As of this Friday, the delivered duty-paid price for China's 10-12% grade Indonesian high-grade NPI remained stable at 1,132.5 yuan per nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap prices edged up this week, lifted by stronger SS futures driving spot prices higher. However, the temporarily stable high-grade NPI prices narrowed scrap's economic advantage. The current traditional consumption off-season persists, downstream demand is sluggish, and steel mills are cautious in purchasing, mainly transacting on a need-to basis. Under the dual constraints of weak demand and diminishing substitution benefits, upward momentum for stainless steel scrap was insufficient. In the short term, it will maintain largely stable consolidation supported by futures resilience, with limited upside room. As of this Friday, mainstream 304 off-cuts prices in Shanghai rose by 200 yuan/mt, quoted at 10,450 yuan/mt. Chrome-based raw materials side, high-carbon ferrochrome prices operated stably this week. Although ferrochrome supply remains relatively ample currently, coupled with demand pulling back amid off-season production cuts for stainless steel, recent high-cost ferrochrome...

[SMM Stainless Steel Scrap Market Weekly Review] SS Futures Strength Drives Slight Uptick in Stainless Steel Scrap, Off-Season Demand Weakness Caps Price Gains This week, prices for 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts in east China edged up, with quotations ranging between 10,400-10,500 yuan/mt. Prices in Foshan rose in tandem, with a price range of 10,300-10,600 yuan/mt. An analysis of raw material production costs shows that the cost of producing stainless steel entirely from stainless steel scrap is approximately 14,607.48 yuan/mt, while the cost using high-grade NPI reaches 14,962.08 yuan/mt, with a cost spread persisting between the two. Stainless steel scrap prices edged up this week. SS futures strengthened overall during the week, and the positive sentiment from the futures side was smoothly transmitted to the spot market, driving a slight concurrent rise in spot prices for finished stainless steel. However, stainless steel mills continued to push for lower prices for high-grade NPI, and amid the tug-of-war between upstream and downstream, high-grade NPI prices held steady for the time being. Overall momentum from the raw material side remained weak, but stainless steel scrap rose in tandem with the strengthening pace of finished product spot cargoes, holding up well overall. With high-grade NPI prices remaining stable this week, the economic advantage of stainless steel scrap narrowed notably, and the cost substitution benefit weakened. In summary, futures provided support for market prices, but off-season fundamentals continued to cap price upside. The market is currently in the traditional consumption off-season for stainless steel, downstream end-use demand remains sluggish, overall industry production pulled back, and the rigid demand for stainless steel scrap weakened accordingly. The purchasing sentiment among steel mills turned cautious, and raw material procurement overall this week...

[SMM Analysis] Futures Recovery Lifts Finished Steel, Raw Materials Drift Lower, Expanding Steel Mill Profits This week, stainless steel finished product prices and production costs drifted higher in tandem, with finished steel gains outpacing the overall performance of raw materials, driving a WoW expansion in steel mill smelting profits. Based on 304 cold rolling calculations, the profit margin stood at 2.39% using current raw material costs and 1.07% using inventory costs this week, with spot profitability resilience having achieved a clear recovery. Nickel-based raw materials: High-grade NPI prices generally grinded lower and pulled back this week, as a futures rebound and spot purchases formed a pronounced tug-of-war. During the week, SHFE nickel and SS futures both consolidated higher in tandem. Upstream smelters and traders showed relatively ample willingness to hold prices firm, but downstream stainless steel mills held relatively cautious expectations for the off-season outlook, with weak sentiment in raw material procurement and the strategy of pushing for lower prices continuing to be implemented. No concentrated restocking demand was released in the market, and the NPI price center shifted lower amid the tug-of-war between longs and shorts. As of this Friday, the domestic arrival tax-inclusive price of Indonesian high-grade NPI with 10-12% Ni content fell 4.5 yuan per nickel unit to 1,132.5 yuan per nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap prices rose with relative strength this week, supported by the futures recovery, displaying characteristics of strong resilience but limited gains. Driven by stronger SS futures, market sentiment for scrap recovered somewhat. Moreover, stainless steel scrap still held a stable cost-competitive substitution advantage over the weaker NPI, providing bottom support for prices. However, the market is currently in the traditional consumption off-season, with weak end-user rigid demand curbing overall demand for finished steel. Coupled with tight availability of tax invoices for stainless steel scrap and steel mills continuously pushing for lower purchase prices, market trading activity was restrained, making it difficult for prices to open upside room...

[SMM Stainless Steel Scrap Weekly Review] Futures Strength Drives Scrap Uptick; Off-Season Demand Keeps Gains in Check This week, 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts prices in east China rose, with a quotation range of 10,200-10,300 yuan/mt; in Foshan, 304 scrap off-cuts prices also moved up, in the range of 10,100-10,400 yuan/mt. From the raw material cost side, producing stainless steel entirely from stainless steel scrap currently costs about 14,351.25 yuan/mt, while using high-grade NPI would cost as much as 14,947.08 yuan/mt—the two still maintain a sizable cost spread. Stainless steel scrap prices edged up this week. During the week, SS futures strengthened overall, and bullish sentiment from futures flowed through to the spot market, nudging up spot prices for stainless steel finished products in tandem. Although steel mills still retained a desire to bargain down prices for raw material procurement, and the substitute raw material high-grade NPI prices continued to be in the doldrums, leaving overall raw material support moderate, stainless steel scrap followed the pace of the spot strength in finished products, moving up in sync and generally holding up well. This week high-grade NPI prices were in the doldrums, which narrowed the economic advantage of stainless steel scrap over it, but the scrap still maintained a significant edge, effectively supporting scrap prices and leaving little room for a steep decline. However, the market is currently in the traditional stainless steel consumption off-season, with downstream end-use demand staying weak. Coupled with the not-yet-resolved issue of tight tax invoices in the industry, these two bearish factors continue to suppress market trading activity. Overall demand growth for stainless steel scrap was limited, and the upside momentum in the market was capped. In summary, ...