[Guangdong Premiums Rose This Week, Expected to Maintain a Fluctuating Trend Next Week] Guangdong premiums rose 45 yuan/mt WoW this week. As of this Friday, mainstream 0# zinc in Guangdong was quoted at discounts of 20~0 yuan/mt against market quotations, and the Shanghai-Guangdong price spread narrowed.......

[Traders' Offers Remained Firm, Spot Premiums Rose WoW]: Spot premiums in Shanghai increased this week, with the weekly average price up 35 yuan/mt WoW. As of this Friday, ordinary domestic brands were quoted at a discount of 10 yuan/mt to a premium of 10 yuan/mt against the 2604 contract, while the high-priced brand Shuangyan was quoted at a premium of 50 yuan/mt against the 2605 contract..

[Traders Raised Spot Quotes, and Downstream Buyers Made Purchases Based on Demand]: Ningbo spot premiums continued to rise this week, with the weekly average price up 50 yuan/mt WoW. As of this Friday, Ningbo spot prices against the 2604 contract were quoted at parity, with a premium of 60 yuan/mt against Shanghai, and the premium against Shanghai widened during the week..

This week, the macro market still repeatedly traded around the Middle East situation and expectations for the US Fed. At the beginning of the week, tensions among the US, Israel, and Iran eased slightly, the US dollar pulled back, and risk appetite recovered temporarily, allowing copper prices to stop falling and rebound at one point. However, Iran later denied progress in the relevant negotiations, geopolitical tensions tightened again, international oil prices rose sharply, and market concerns over supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz resurfaced, with safe-haven sentiment rebounding accordingly and weighing on copper prices. Market bets on major central banks cutting interest rates this year were pushed back significantly, and expectations for macro liquidity weakened at the margin. Overall, this week’s copper price logic still centered on the repeated tug-of-war among geopolitical risks, oil prices, the US dollar, and interest rate cut expectations. Before macro uncertainty eases materially, copper prices will likely remain in the doldrums with rangebound fluctuations in the short term. Fundamentally, the logic of ore supply tightness continued. On March 25, Mitsubishi Materials announced that it will cease part of the copper concentrates processing business at the Onahama smelter in 2027, and explicitly mentioned the sharp deterioration in TC/RCs and pressure on smelting profits, further confirming the current reality of tight copper concentrates supply and continued damage to profitability on the smelting side. Global exchange copper inventories remained high, but demand in China had already started, and the pace of destocking in China’s social inventory exceeded market expectations. Supported by the opening of the import window and domestic demand, inventories outside China showed signs of flowing back into China. Looking ahead to next week, the macro theme is expected to remain largely unchanged. If the Middle East situation does not ease substantially, elevated oil prices and a relatively strong US dollar will likely continue to weigh on copper prices, and short-term resistance will remain; however, ore supply tightness, worsening smelting profits, and domestic demand will still provide some support for copper prices. Therefore, copper prices are expected to continue to fluctuate rangebound within a narrow range next week, with LME copper expected at $12,000-12,500/mt and SHFE copper expected at 93,000-96,500 yuan/mt. In the spot market, as imported cargoes arrive one after another, the pace of domestic inventory destocking may slow down. Although inventories are still being drawn down, spot premiums are expected to find it difficult to rise sharply due to the relatively high inventory base. Spot prices against the SHFE copper front-month contract are expected at a discount of 120 yuan/mt to a discount of 20 yuan/mt.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Geopolitical Disruptions Coupled With Cost Support Kept Spot Stainless Steel Stable SMM News on March 27: SS futures stopped falling and rebounded. Uncertainty remained high around news related to geopolitical conflicts, and futures were still likely to maintain a fluctuating trend. As of the midday close, the quote stood at 14,395 yuan/mt. In the spot market, affected by fluctuations in SS futures, downstream transaction demand for rigid needs had been largely released at the beginning of the week. At present, the arbitrage window in futures had closed, and spot stainless steel transactions pulled back accordingly. Stainless steel mills were currently operating at losses, and with cost support, mills still showed a strong willingness to hold prices firm, while spot prices mostly remained stable. The most-traded SS futures contract stopped falling and rebounded. At 10:15 a.m., SS2605 was quoted at 14,355 yuan/mt, down 85 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 165-365 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was unchanged; for cold-rolled trim-edge 304/2B coil, the average price in Wuxi fell by 50 yuan/mt, and the average price in Foshan also fell by 50 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi was unchanged; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, the Wuxi quote was unchanged; cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan remained stable. The stainless steel market had now entered the traditional peak consumption season. Downstream end-user transactions remained steady, but market sentiment turned cautious. End-users lacked willingness to stockpile, and procurement was still mainly driven by restocking based on immediate needs. The brisk trading pattern typical of the peak season had not emerged, and overall demand remained stable and neutral. Futures...

[Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to remain in a tug-of-war. Supply side, some suppliers had already sold part of their imported cargoes during the day, such as Onsan, SR-P, and Polish large plates, while a large volume of imported copper is still set to arrive next week, and whether actual supply will increase significantly remains to be seen. If copper prices continue to fluctuate rangebound within the current range, the increase in supply will weigh on spot premiums. Demand side, next week will usher in a stockpiling window ahead of the Qingming Festival, and downstream enterprises may have demand to restock in advance. Spot transactions are expected to improve, which may provide temporary support to premiums. In addition, from the perspective of market structure, the price spread between high-quality copper and standard-quality copper has remained at a relatively narrow level, reflecting that current market trading is mainly driven by actual consumption demand, with brand premiums weakening and buyers paying more attention to price itself rather than brand differences. Overall, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2604 contract are expected to remain at the current level next Monday.

[SMM Tin Midday Commentary: Technical Recovery Coupled with Expectations of a Temporary Easing in Geopolitical Tensions Drives a Rebound in Tin Prices]

SMM Nickel, March 27: Macro and Market News: (1) On March 26 local time, multiple US officials and informed sources revealed that the US Department of Defense was formulating a so-called "final blow" military option against Iran, and the relevant plans may include the deployment of ground forces and large-scale airstrike operations. (2) In response to US President Trump saying that he would visit China in mid-May, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said at a regular press conference on March 26 that head-of-state diplomacy plays an irreplaceable strategic guiding role in China-US relations, and the two sides have remained in communication regarding President Trump's visit to China. Spot Market: On March 27, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel fell by 350 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average price premium of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 4,900 yuan/mt, down 500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; spot premiums for mainstream electrodeposited nickel brands in China were -600-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) maintained rangebound fluctuations and closed the morning session at 137,010 yuan/mt today, up 0.01%. Policy expectations that Indonesia may impose a nickel export tax, together with firm ore prices on the raw material side and easing macro sentiment, jointly drove nickel prices higher. Nickel prices are expected to hold up well in the short term, with the core trading range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract at 133,000-143,000 yuan/mt.

SMM News, March 27: Today, in Guangdong, spot premiums for #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract were quoted at 150 yuan/mt for high-quality copper, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; 50 yuan/mt for standard-quality copper, up 30 yuan/mt from yesterday; and a discount of 20 yuan/mt for SX-EW copper, up 20 yuan/mt from yesterday. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 95,495 yuan/mt, down 130 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 95,375 yuan/mt, down 140 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory declined for nine consecutive days and has now fallen by more than 40,000 mt from the high seen earlier this year. As inventory kept falling, suppliers showed stronger willingness to hold prices firm. In early trading, standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 60 yuan/mt, but some downstream enterprises were unwilling to purchase at high prices, prompting some suppliers to slightly lower premiums for shipments. Today, copper cathode purchasing sentiment in Guangdong stood at 2.62, up 0.09 from the previous trading day, while shipment sentiment was 3.59, up 0.1 from the previous trading day (historical data is available in the database). Overall, inventory fell sharply, suppliers actively held prices firm, and spot premiums kept rising, with overall trading remaining moderate.

Spot #1 copper cathode in North China was quoted at a discount of 100 yuan/mt to a discount of 40 yuan/mt against the front-month contract today. The average price remained unchanged from the previous trading day, and the average transaction price fell by 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day to 95,345 yuan/mt.