【SMM Copper News Flash】According to SHFE data, a total of 6,258 mt of copper futures warrants flowed out today, of which the Shanghai region saw the largest outflow of 4,398 mt. It is worth noting that the Shanghai region has shifted from spot discounts to spot premiums.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper was closed due to Easter. On the last trading day before the holiday, it closed at $12,348.5/mt, down 0.99%; overnight, SHFE copper was closed due to the Qingming Festival. On the last trading day before the holiday, it closed at 96,250 yuan/mt, up 0.39%.

Next Monday, markets outside China will be closed for one day on April 6 for the Easter holiday, including the LME and other exchanges. Meanwhile, China will also be in the Qingming Festival holiday, with the SHFE and other exchanges likewise closed. In terms of macroeconomic data, key releases include China’s March CPI YoY and the US March non-seasonally adjusted CPI YoY, while the US Fed will also release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting. LME lead, geopolitical tensions outside China have repeatedly resurfaced and the situation remained relatively severe, with the impact on energy, shipping, and other areas continuing. China’s lead ingot import window had remained open for a long time, attracting overseas lead ingot inflows into the Chinese market and reducing spot lead circulation in Southeast Asia and other markets. Especially during periods of rising LME lead, LME Cash-3M contango further narrowed WoW to -$20.77/mt, which will support lead prices to hold up well. LME lead is expected to trade at $1,890-1,965/mt next week. SHFE lead, lead ingot supply is expected to increase in April, but the consumption side is facing the traditional off-season. Coupled with the Qingming Festival holiday, when downstream enterprises will be on holiday, the risk of post-holiday lead ingot inventory buildup will rise, which will weigh on the upward momentum of lead prices. In addition, delivery of the SHFE lead 2604 contract will come onto the agenda after the holiday, and attention should be paid to changes in plant warehouse lead ingot inventory into visible inventory, with caution against lead prices retreating after rapid rise. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade at 16,500-16,900 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,350-16,700 yuan/mt. During the Qingming Festival holiday, many downstream enterprises plan to take time off, leading to a temporary absence of lead consumption. Together with the approaching traditional off-season, downstream enterprises will maintain purchase as needed. On the supply side, production at primary lead and secondary lead enterprises will rise steadily, while imported lead continues to flow into China, making it possible for spot discounts for lead to widen.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to remain under pressure. Supply side, smelters will maintain normal operations during the Qingming Festival holiday, and domestic spot copper output will continue, while imported copper will arrive successively, making spot cargo in circulation in the post-holiday market more ample. In addition, although some suppliers sold off cargo slightly during the day, with Honglu quoted at a discount of 80 yuan/mt, this did not drive overall spot discounts lower, reflecting that suppliers still have the willingness to hold prices firm at current price levels, with spot discounts receiving some support on the downside. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between expectations of ample supply and suppliers' willingness to hold prices firm, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2604 contract are expected to remain at a discount after the holiday.

Platinum prices held up well today, with the most-traded platinum contract on Guangzhou Futures Exchange, PT2606, closing the morning session at 502.55 yuan/gram, up 1.84. In the spot market, mainstream quotations for spot platinum in the morning session were at a discount of 5-9 yuan/gram to PT2606, or quoted at 5-9 yuan/gram against the SGE sell-1 price. Spot quotations were still basically flat in terms of discount versus the previous trading day. As for spot transactions, SMM learned that suppliers held prices firm in sales due to costs, delivery intentions, and the closure of overseas markets. In the morning session, spot quotations at a discount of 5-6 yuan/gram to the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were difficult to conclude. Some trading firms engaging in both spot and futures market inquired for spot-futures price spread opportunities, but reported that market quotations were relatively high and that there was limited availability of spot cargo at large discounts. Downstream buyers still mainly stayed on the sidelines, while some just-in-time procurement was concluded after negotiated lower premiums. Overall transactions in the spot market remained sluggish.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,286.5/mt and fluctuated downward in early trading to a low of $12,212/mt. Copper prices then fluctuated upward, with the center moving up to $12,408/mt, before falling back again to finally close at $12,348.5/mt, down 0.99%. Trading volume reached 20,000 lots, and open interest stood at 295,000 lots, an increase of 3,702 lots from the previous trading day. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 95,660 yuan/mt and dipped to 95,300 yuan/mt in early trading. Copper prices then fluctuated upward, with the center moving up to a high of 96,680 yuan/mt, before fluctuating downward to finally close at 96,150 yuan/mt, down 0.08%. Trading volume reached 36,500 lots, and open interest stood at 181,000 lots, a decrease of 1,608 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bulls reducing positions.

[SMM Copper Flash News] During the day, copper futures warrants continued to flow out by 7,475 mt, including 2,745 mt from Shanghai, 4,129 mt from Guangdong, and 601 mt from Jiangsu. At present, spot discounts for copper cathode in Shanghai and Jiangsu have narrowed, while in Guangdong, quotes were firmer due to continued destocking.

Platinum prices continued to hold up well today. The most-traded platinum contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, PT2606, closed the morning session at 493.8 yuan/g, down 2.84%. In the spot market, mainstream quotations for spot platinum in the morning session were at discounts of 7-9 yuan/g to PT2606, or quoted at 5-7 yuan/g against the Shanghai Gold Exchange's sell-1 price. Spot discounts were unchanged from the previous trading day. As for spot transactions, SMM learned that cargo-holding traders reported that market orders remained limited and consumption was average. In the morning session, spot platinum quoted at around an 8 yuan/g discount to the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was difficult to transact. Some trading firms engaging in both spot and futures market actively offered quotations in search of spot-futures price spread opportunities, while downstream players still mainly stayed on the sidelines. Some enterprises reported relatively sufficient stockpiling and low purchase willingness. Overall transactions in the spot market remained sluggish.

Shanghai copper spot to remain weak tomorrow. On the supply side, the import window is open, raising expectations of further inflows. Some imported cargoes are circulating, keeping spot discounts under pressure. Meanwhile, some smelters are accelerating shipments to reduce inventories before the holiday, adding to supply pressure. On the demand side, downstream buyers remain cautious, mostly purchasing on rigid needs with limited appetite for higher prices. Some pre-holiday restocking ahead of the Qingming festival may offer modest support, but it is unlikely to reverse the overall weak supply-demand balance. In summary, spot quotes against the 2604 contract are expected to hold at current levels.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to remain in the doldrums. Supply side, as the import window has opened, expectations for subsequent inflows of cargo from outside China have strengthened, and some imported cargo circulated in the market during the day, continuously pressuring spot discounts. Meanwhile, according to SMM, some smelters had a need to reduce inventory ahead of the holiday and intended to accelerate the pace of shipments, further increasing circulation pressure in the spot market. Demand side, downstream enterprises still showed limited acceptance of current price levels, with overall procurement still dominated by just-in-time procurement and insufficient willingness to chase higher prices. However, as the Qingming Festival approaches, some downstream enterprises may have pre-holiday stockpiling demand, which could provide some support to the spot market, but is expected to be insufficient to reverse the overall weak supply-demand pattern. Overall, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2604 contract are expected to remain at the current level tomorrow.