On June 26, the average warrant price was unchanged from the previous trading day, quoted at $67/mt (price range $62-72/mt); the average B/L price was unchanged from the previous trading day, quoted at $69/mt (price range $64-74/mt); the average price of EQ copper (CIF B/L) was unchanged from the previous trading day, quoted at $38/mt (price range $35-41/mt), offerings based on arrivals in early July. Intraday, the SHFE/LME price ratio pulled back, the market returned to sluggishness, with only a few spot cargo offers. Heard that EQ B/L for early July arrival traded at around $40/mt, and a small number of EQ physical transactions for late June arrival closed above $38/mt. Heard that registered B/L for early July arrival were quoted at $70-75/mt, and registered warrants for delivery in early July traded at $70/mt.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, the market supply-demand structure may undergo marginal changes. On one hand, during the day, some traders will have replenishment needs due to prior overselling, and with the concentrated release of demand to replenish cargoes with invoices dated this month, available low-priced supplies will be quickly absorbed. Subsequently, the available spot copper in the market is expected to remain tight. On the other hand, from a market sentiment perspective, copper prices are currently at relatively low levels, and suppliers generally hold an optimistic outlook on future spot premiums, showing weak willingness to sell at low prices, which provides support to spot premiums. Overall, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2607 contract are expected to remain at a discount next week, and the discount may narrow slightly.

In North China, spot #1 copper cathode was quoted at an average discount of 170 yuan/mt to 110 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with an average discount of 140 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 101,435 yuan/mt, up 495 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

On June 25, the average warrant price rose by $2/mt from the previous trading day to $67/mt (price range: $62-72/mt); the average B/L price rose by $2/mt to $69/mt (price range: $64-74/mt); the average price for EQ copper (CIF B/L) rose by $3/mt to $38/mt (price range: $35-41/mt), with offers based on arrivals in early July. Overnight, the SHFE/LME price ratio surged sharply. In the morning market, conditions were similar to yesterday, with demand more robust. Registered warrants and B/Ls for early July arrival were swept clean, and EQ also saw significant transactions. It was heard that EQ B/Ls arriving in early July traded around $40/mt, while a small number of physical EQ cargoes arriving in late June traded above $38/mt. Offers for registered B/Ls arriving in early July were reportedly quoted at $70-75/mt, and registered warrants for delivery in early July were traded at $70/mt.

In North China, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were reported at discounts ranging from 210 yuan/mt to 130 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 170 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 100,940 yuan/mt, down 2,050 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, copper prices pulled back in the night session yesterday, prompting some downstream enterprises to actively buy the dip. Intraday purchasing demand increased significantly. After low-priced cargoes were quickly absorbed, suppliers began to show a willingness to hold prices firm, and subsequently, the momentum for selling at low prices weakened. Regarding market structure, the inter-month price spread has shifted into a backwardation structure, reducing the willingness to sell at low prices and providing support for spot discounts. On the supply side, the import window briefly opened during the night session, and additional supply from outside China may follow. Overall, with support from the backwardation structure and downstream dip-buying, Shanghai spot copper quotes against the SHFE copper 2607 contract are expected to remain at discounts tomorrow, with the discount possibly narrowing slightly.

[SMM Shanghai spot copper] Tomorrow, following a pullback in copper prices during last night’s night session, some downstream enterprises actively bought the dip, driving a notable increase in intraday procurement demand. After low-priced cargo was quickly absorbed, suppliers showed signs of holding prices firm, weakening the momentum for subsequent low-price selling. Market structure, the inter-month spread has shifted to a backwardation structure, reducing the willingness to sell at low prices and supporting spot discounts. Supply side, during the night session, the import window briefly opened, potentially bringing in some overseas supply replenishment later. Overall, with combined support from the backwardation structure and downstream dip-buying, spot SHFE copper prices against the 2607 contract are expected to maintain discounts tomorrow, with the discount magnitude possibly narrowing slightly.

SMM June 25: Spot Guangdong #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract today: high-quality copper was quoted at 90 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 20 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 40 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 101,140 yuan/mt, down 2,170 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 101,045 yuan/mt, down 2,155 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory increased for five consecutive trading days, with rising arrivals and weak consumption being the main reasons. Although copper prices pulled back notably, downstream players worried about further declines, and with month-end approaching, downstream enterprises’ restocking willingness only improved slightly from yesterday. As a result, suppliers failed to continue holding prices firm and had to sell at premiums unchanged from yesterday. The purchasing sentiment index for copper cathode in Guangdong today was 2.79, up 0.13 from the previous trading day, and the selling sentiment index was 2.89, up 0.04 (historical data can be accessed via the database). Overall, although copper prices continued to decline, end-use demand was moderate, and spot premiums were merely flat from yesterday.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, in terms of regional structure, available supply in Changzhou has become significantly looser than before, with the previous tightness effectively alleviated, weakening the support for local spot premiums. From the perspective of supplier behavior, as the month-end cash collection period approaches, sentiment to offload cargo remains high, and suppliers have a strong willingness to continuously lower offer prices. During the day, discounts for some brands have widened to around 100 yuan/mt, and this trend is expected to continue tomorrow. On the demand side, following the decline in copper prices, some copper semis processing enterprises reported an increase in order volume; according to SMM, some end-user transactions were concentrated in the 102,500–103,000 yuan/mt range, indicating that current price levels are moderately attractive to downstream, with dip-buying willingness improving. However, due to aggressive price cuts by suppliers, downstream buyers still mainly push for lower prices in procurement, with limited willingness to chase higher prices. The import loss narrowed sharply to 80–30 yuan/mt, approaching the import breakeven point. Going forward, it is necessary to monitor the inflow of ex-China supplies. Overall, under the combined effect of selling pressure and downstream dip-buying, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2607 contract are expected to remain at a discount, or to widen slightly, tomorrow.

On June 24, the average warrant price rose by $3/mt from the previous trading day to $63/mt (price range: $60-70/mt); the average B/L price increased by $4/mt to $67/mt (price range: $62-72/mt); the average price for EQ copper (CIF B/L) gained $3/mt to $35/mt (price range: $32-38/mt), with offers referencing cargo arriving in early July. Overnight, the SHFE/LME price ratio recovered, boosting buyer pricing demand. Morning market demand was relatively strong, with spot premiums showing an uptrend. Early-July-arrival EQ B/Ls were heard offered around $45/mt, while a small volume of late-June-arrival EQ cargoes was reported traded above $35/mt. Registered B/Ls for early-July arrival were heard quoted at $70-75/mt, and registered warrants for early-July delivery were reported traded at $70/mt.