[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Prices Halted Their Decline, but Wait-and-See Sentiment Remained Unchanged; Rangebound Movement May Continue in the Short Term] Spot market, yesterday the overall ADC12 market continued to hold prices steady. Aluminum prices showed signs of halting their decline, but market sentiment recovered only limitedly, and enterprises generally chose to postpone price adjustments and mainly adopt a wait-and-see stance. Demand side, downstream orders did not improve significantly, and just-in-time procurement remained the main approach, with mediocre transaction performance. Against the backdrop of easing cost-side fluctuations and insufficient demand support, ADC12 prices may continue to fluctuate within a range and remain relatively stable in the short term, with relatively limited momentum for price adjustments. Further attention should still be paid to aluminum price trends and the recovery of end-use demand.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary] Silicon Metal: Spot silicon metal prices remained in a stalemate consolidation. Yesterday, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was at 9,100-9,300 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon at 9,300-9,500 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous day. The quote center of some silicon enterprises was slightly lower than that of trading firms engaging in both spot and futures market, while downstream users mainly transacted at lower prices, and overall market trading activity was subdued. Polysilicon: N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 38-47 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices continued to decline somewhat recently, mainly affected by market sentiment and inventory clearance by some leading enterprises. At present, low-priced polysilicon has already fallen below the cost line of some manufacturers, and the sentiment to hold quotes firm has strengthened somewhat. The upstream market was also still watching wafer price movements.

According to the latest customs data, in January 2026, China’s imports of copper-zinc alloy (brass) bars and rods were 2,050.01 mt in physical content, down 8.37% MoM and up 24.53% YoY. In February, China’s imports of copper-zinc alloy (brass) bars and rods were 1,344.87 mt in physical content, down 34.4% MoM and down 36.67% YoY, showing an overall sharp decline. Cumulative imports in January-February 2026 were 3,394.87, down 9.94% YoY cumulatively. (HS codes 74072111, 74072119, 74072190).

[Overnight, LME Aluminum and SHFE Aluminum Edged Up Slightly, but Aluminum Prices Faced Short-Term Pressure at High Levels] Continued destocking in LME inventory provided bottom support for LME aluminum, but amid tightening fund liquidity and profit-taking by bulls, upward momentum remained insufficient, and the backwardation structure weakened somewhat. China’s social inventory rose to a high for the same period in nearly five years, and the inventory buildup cycle had yet to end, with high inventory and weak spot fundamentals jointly weighing on upward momentum. The divergence between domestic and overseas drivers continued, the SHFE/LME price ratio kept weakening, and prices were mainly under pressure in the short term.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Futures Extended Losses, While Trading Sentiment Recovered Slightly] Market quotes generally moved lower last Friday, with the SMM ADC12 price down 300 yuan/mt to 25,000 yuan/mt. Driven by the price pullback and weekend restocking demand, market trading sentiment recovered somewhat from the previous period, and downstream purchase willingness to buy the dip strengthened, improving transactions for some enterprises. However, overall demand still mainly reflected rigid demand, end-users remained sensitive to price fluctuations, and the pace of restocking stayed cautious. In the short term, ADC12 prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. The pattern of demand being under pressure is unlikely to change in the short term; downstream acceptance of high prices is limited, and coupled with the weak trend in primary aluminum weighing on market sentiment, prices struggled to rise. But with cost support, downside room is also limited. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the trend in primary aluminum and the pace of downstream consumption release.

Jan-Feb 2026 China magnesium exports reached 72.7kt, up 3.4kt YoY. Magnesium alloy led with +33.1% YoY, orders booked through April. Magnesium ingot fell 6.8% due to weak European demand, while powder grew 10.3%. However, US-Israel conflict disrupted Middle East aluminum plants, halting regional magnesium orders and pressuring Q2 outlook despite the strong start.

According to SMM data, the operating rate of copper pipe & tube enterprises was 58.74% in February, down 14.13 percentage points MoM and down 11.54 percentage points YoY. February was affected by the Chinese New Year holiday. Leading enterprises maintained stable production and supply, with production showing strong resilience, basically sustaining “no holiday shutdowns” or only 0–3 days , and ensuring normal operations during the Chinese New Year period through shift rotations on production lines. Although orders saw slight fluctuations of 2%–10%, they remained overall under control. However, small and medium-sized enterprises performed poorly in February, dragging down the overall operating rate. Looking ahead to March, the operating rate of copper pipe & tube enterprises is expected to be 77.88%, up 19.14 percentage points MoM and down 7.35 percentage points YoY. The March production schedule of key air-conditioner enterprises fell 9.3% YoY from last year, in line with the YoY decline trend in copper pipe & tube operating rates. However, most copper pipe & tube enterprises said March production is expected to be better than expectations, and there are concerns over advance production and stockpiling. Worth noting is that R&D on high-performance alloy copper tubes by China’s leading enterprises will further reduce copper consumption in air conditioners, and most other enterprises are currently developing this type of technology as well. This has also increased orders for those domestic copper pipe & tube enterprises that already possess such technology, diluting the market share of other enterprises. In addition, the conflict in the Middle East reduced some home appliance export orders to the region, and the April production schedules of some domestic air-conditioner enterprises with relatively high market share exposure there are expected to decline.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary: Polysilicon Prices Remained Slightly Weak, While Module Prices Were Overtly Stable but Softened in Practice] Over the weekend, N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 39.5-47.5 yuan/kg, the N-type polysilicon price index stood at 43.64 yuan/kg, and granular polysilicon was quoted at 40-43 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices still appeared slightly weak over the weekend, with reports of some transactions concluded at low prices. Bearish sentiment among upstream and downstream enterprises persisted, and prices were expected to remain weak.

[SMM Tungsten Daily Review: Slight Price Collapse in the Scrap Tungsten Market, Ore and Upstream Smelting Products Consolidated Sideways] SMM News, March 23 In the short term, prices across the tungsten industry chain still showed divergence between primary and recycled materials. China was currently in a transition period marked by tightening supply on the raw ore side and a rising utilization rate of recycled materials. Smelters still needed some time to adjust their restocking practices and complete the adaptation and transition from a long-term contract pricing model led by the ore side to a scrap tungsten market procurement model featuring higher-frequency transactions and greater sensitivity to sentiment.

[SMM Analysis]Analysis of Import and Export Data for Unwrought Aluminum Alloy, January-February 2026