2. On February 6, the SM2605 contract opened at 5,880 yuan/mt and closed at 5,856 yuan/mt, down 0.48%. The daily highest price was 5,930 yuan/mt, and the lowest price was 5,850 yuan/mt. Trading volume reached 206,300 lots, and open interest stood at 359,017 lots. Today, SiMn futures fluctuated downward under pressure. Cost side, overall manganese ore transaction prices remained high and the market was temporarily stable, providing strong cost support for SiMn alloy prices. In 2026, electricity prices in Inner Mongolia and south China were expected to likely increase alloy costs. This week, SiMn alloy cost support remained steady. Supply side, newly added SiMn furnaces in the main northern production areas gradually started producing iron, increasing supply pressure for standard SiMn. With the Chinese New Year approaching, operating rates at southern alloy plants remained stably low, as manufacturers opted for temporary shutdowns and adopted a strong wait-and-see attitude, pending post-holiday electricity settlement prices. Currently, loose SiMn supply pressure persisted. Demand side, HBIS Group's SiMn procurement for February 2026 awaited confirmation. The current SiMn market continued to be dominated by fluctuating movements.

2.4 News: The SM2605 contract opened at 5,842 yuan/mt and finally closed at 5,868 yuan/mt, up 0.31%. The daily highest price was 5,880 yuan/mt and the lowest price was 5,826 yuan/mt. Trading volume was 118,900 lots, and open interest was 354,221 lots. Today, SiMn futures edged up under pressure. Cost side, overall manganese ore transaction prices remained high and the market temporarily stabilized, providing strong cost support for SiMn alloy prices. In 2026, the cost support from local electricity prices in Inner Mongolia and electricity prices in south China for alloy costs was under verification, but a rise was likely. At the start of the week, SiMn alloy cost support temporarily stabilized. Supply side, newly added SiMn furnaces in the main northern production areas gradually started producing iron, increasing supply pressure for standard SiMn. Operating rates at alloy plants in south China remained stably low. In 2026, the intensity of electricity fee policies in Guangxi and Guizhou awaited verification; most plants maintained off-peak production. With the Chinese New Year approaching, manufacturers chose temporary shutdowns, adopting a strong wait-and-see attitude, pending post-holiday electricity settlement prices. Currently, loose supply pressure for SiMn persisted. Demand side, HBIS Group's SiMn procurement for February 2026 awaited verification. The current SiMn market continued to be dominated by volatile movements.

February 2 — SM2605 contract opened at 5,880 yuan/mt and closed at 5,834 yuan/mt, down 0.88%. The daily highest price was 5,916 yuan/mt, and the lowest price was 5,816 yuan/mt. Trading volume reached 186,200 lots, and open interest stood at 360,081 lots. SiMn futures came under pressure and declined today. Cost side, overall manganese ore transaction prices remained high and the market was temporarily stable, providing strong cost support for SiMn alloy prices. The cost support from Inner Mongolia regional electricity prices and south China electricity prices for alloy production in 2026 is still under verification, with a high likelihood of increase expected. SiMn alloy cost support remained steady at the beginning of the week. Supply side, newly added SiMn furnaces in the main northern production areas gradually started tapping metal, increasing supply pressure for standard-grade SiMn. Operating rates at alloy plants in south China remained stably low. The impact of 2026 electricity fee policies in Guangxi and Guizhou is yet to be verified, with most plants continuing valley-shift production. Coupled with the approaching Chinese New Year, many manufacturers chose temporary shutdowns, adopting a strong wait-and-see attitude pending post-holiday electricity settlement prices. Loose SiMn supply pressure persists. Demand side, HBIS Group's SiMn procurement for February 2026 awaits confirmation. Currently, the SiMn market continues to operate mainly with volatility.

SMM SiMn Alloy Daily Review: SiMn Alloy Mills Show Weak Willingness to Actively Quote, Spot Prices Remain Stable. In the north China market, SiMn alloy 65/17 (cash) was at 5,950-6,050 yuan/mt, flat MoM; in the south China market, SiMn alloy 65/17 (cash) was at 6,050-6,150 yuan/mt, flat MoM. According to SMM, on the raw material side, miners' offers remained firm, with weak willingness to sell at low prices, and spot prices stopped falling and stabilized. On the supply side, cost support was weak, and SiMn alloy mills showed weak willingness to actively quote. Manganese ore prices remained at a relatively high level, and due to high production resistance, SiMn alloy mills are expected to reduce or halt production in the future. On the demand side, downstream steel mills showed weak demand for SiMn alloy, and spot prices of SiMn alloy remained stable.

【SMM Analysis: SiMn Alloy Production Decreased MoM in February, Slight Rebound Expected in March】 According to SMM data, China's total SiMn alloy production in February 2025 decreased by approximately 2% MoM and dropped by over 10% YoY. The main reasons for the February decline in SiMn production were as follows: In north China, regions such as Inner Mongolia maintained high operating rates and continued production during the Chinese New Year holiday. However, some SiMn plants conducted equipment maintenance during the holiday, leading to a slight reduction in production. In Ningxia, some enterprises largely maintained normal production with relatively small fluctuations in daily output. Additionally, in south China, production faced relatively high pressure due to rising manganese ore and electricity costs, resulting in a slight decline in output and a continued reduction in overall operating rates. Consequently, both northern and southern regions experienced production decreases. Combined with the fewer calendar days in February, the total national SiMn alloy production showed a downward trend. Looking ahead to March, SiMn plants in cost-advantaged regions such as Inner Mongolia are expected to maintain high operating rates. Considering that SiMn prices remain relatively weak and profit margins for enterprises are limited, the operating rate increase in other regions is expected to remain relatively low. However, with the increase in calendar days in March compared to February, overall SiMn alloy production is expected to rebound.

【SMM Analysis: Cost Support Remains, SiMn Alloy Plants Show Weak Willingness to Sell at Low Prices】 As of this Friday, the northern market price for SiMn alloy 65/17 (cash) was 6,200-6,500 yuan/mt, flat MoM; the southern market price for SiMn alloy 65/17 (cash) was 6,300-6,600 yuan/mt, also flat MoM. For February SiMn alloy prices, the majority of the market holds a bullish outlook. Most participants expect prices to rise, mainly due to disruptions in Gabon manganese ore shipments, which have strengthened miners' sentiment to stand firm on quotes. Manganese ore prices are expected to fluctuate upward. With enhanced cost support, SiMn alloy plants show weak willingness to sell at low prices, and SiMn alloy prices are expected to fluctuate upward. Some participants hold a bearish outlook, primarily because the overall supply of SiMn alloy remains high, while downstream steel mills provide limited demand support. Overall, the supply surplus of SiMn alloy has not changed, and prices are expected to fluctuate downward. A minority believes that prices will remain stable, mainly because SiMn alloy plants, supported by costs, are reluctant to sell at low prices. Downstream steel mills are cautious in purchasing SiMn alloy and tend to bargain down purchasing prices. Overall, the SiMn alloy market is in a tug-of-war between sellers and buyers, and prices are expected to remain stable.

[SMM Analysis: Downstream Just-in-Time Procurement Supports SiMn Alloy Market Fluctuating Upward] Futures market: In January, the most-traded contract fluctuated around 6,494 yuan/mt. The highest settlement price at 10:15 reached 6,866 yuan/mt, up 7.28% MoM from last month's 6,400 yuan/mt, while the lowest was 6,032 yuan/mt. Overall, SiMn alloy futures prices fluctuated upward with significant volatility throughout the month. Spot market: Currently, there remains a certain cost difference between north and south China. In January, influenced by the upward fluctuation of manganese ore prices, SiMn alloy production costs increased. Additionally, electricity prices in south China rose significantly, further driving up production costs. Overall, north China still holds cost advantages. In terms of supply, production in north China slightly declined due to equipment maintenance by certain manufacturers. In south China, with high production costs, most idle SiMn alloy plants have no production resumption plans, resulting in limited actual output growth. Overall, both northern and southern SiMn alloy plants experienced production cuts. Demand side: Downstream steel mills showed some winter stockpiling demand for SiMn alloy, primarily making just-in-time procurement. Overall, supported by costs and downstream just-in-time procurement, SiMn alloy spot prices fluctuated upward. Additionally, according to SMM, entering February, with miners' strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes, manganese ore spot prices are expected to fluctuate upward. Supported by stronger cost pressures, SiMn alloy prices are also expected to fluctuate upward in the future.

[SMM Analysis: SiMn Alloy Market Review for 2024 and Outlook for 2025] I. Price Aspect: In 2024, the annual average price of SiMn alloy 65/17 in Inner Mongolia was 6,541.32 yuan/mt, down 5.07% YoY; in Guangxi, the annual average price was 6,660.74 yuan/mt, down 4.69% YoY. From the quarterly price review: 2024 Q1: Supply side, the reduction caused by power rationing or maintenance in north China recovered, but SiMn alloy production fell short of expectations. However, due to relatively high social inventory levels, SiMn alloy supply remained sufficient. Demand side, as steel mills had sufficient stockpiling of SiMn alloy and resumed production at a slow pace after the holiday, downstream steel mills showed weak demand and low enthusiasm for purchasing SiMn alloy, leading to a decline in SiMn alloy prices in Q1. 2024 Q2: Due to disruptions in mine shipments and other news, miners showed strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes, and manganese ore spot prices rose significantly. With strong cost support, SiMn alloy spot prices surged rapidly. Supply side, SiMn alloy plants with pre-stocked manganese ore resumed production, and SiMn alloy production increased month by month. Demand side, downstream steel mills entered the traditional "golden March and silver April" peak demand season, boosting their purchasing enthusiasm for SiMn alloy. Supported by cost-driven factors and recovering demand from downstream steel mills, SiMn alloy spot prices continued to rise.

【SMM Analysis: Market Observes Steel Tender Progress, SiMn Alloy Market Temporarily Stable】 As of this Wednesday, the SiMn alloy 65/17 (cash) in north China was priced at 5,750-5,950 yuan/mt, while in south China it was 5,900-6,100 yuan/mt. On the spot market, mainstream steel tenders have entered the market, with most participants adopting a wait-and-see attitude. Many SiMn alloy plants are holding back from selling, while downstream steel mills are cautious in their purchasing. The SiMn alloy spot market remains temporarily stable. For January SiMn alloy prices, the majority of the market holds a bullish outlook. Most participants are optimistic about future price increases, mainly due to the strong sentiment among miners to stand firm on quotes, which is expected to drive up manganese ore spot prices and increase SiMn alloy production costs, providing strong cost support for SiMn alloy. Additionally, downstream steel mills are expected to engage in winter stockpiling before the Chinese New Year, leading to a recovery in demand for SiMn alloy. Overall, supported by costs and downstream demand, SiMn alloy prices are expected to fluctuate upward in the future. On the other hand, some participants hold a bearish view on future prices, primarily because the overall supply of SiMn alloy remains at a high level, and downstream steel mills provide limited support for SiMn alloy demand. In summary, the supply surplus of SiMn alloy has not yet been resolved, and SiMn alloy prices are expected to fluctuate downward in the future. A small number of participants believe that price changes are difficult to predict, mainly because SiMn alloy plants, supported by costs, have a weak willingness to sell at low prices. Meanwhile, downstream steel mills are cautious in their SiMn alloy purchases and tend to bargain down purchasing prices. In conclusion, the SiMn alloy market is experiencing a tug-of-war between sellers and buyers, and future prices are expected to remain uncertain.

【SMM Analysis：The SiMn alloy market is marked by strong wait-and-see sentiment, with spot prices remaining stable.】As of this Thursday, the SiMn alloy 65/17 (cash) in the northern market was priced at 5,900-6,100 yuan/mt, unchanged WoW; in the southern market, it was priced at 6,000-6,050 yuan/mt, also unchanged WoW. With major steel tenders entering the market, the SiMn alloy market is marked by strong wait-and-see sentiment, and spot prices remain stable. For November SiMn alloy prices, the majority of market participants are bearish. Most traders expect a decline in the price outlook, mainly due to the anticipated drop in raw material prices such as coke and manganese ore in November, leading to a decrease in SiMn alloy production costs and weaker cost support. Additionally, SiMn alloy production is expected to remain relatively stable, but end-use consumption is weak, leading to cautious purchasing of SiMn alloy. Overall, the current surplus in the SiMn alloy market has not changed, negatively impacting the spot market, and the price outlook for SiMn alloy is expected to continue fluctuating downward. On the other hand, some traders are bullish on the price outlook, mainly because SiMn alloy plants are experiencing relatively high production costs, with most plants still facing losses on production. This results in a low willingness to sell at low prices, and holders of SiMn alloy are quoting firmly.