SMM Alumina Morning Comment Feb. 3 Futures: In the night session, the most-traded alumina 2605 futures contract opened at 2,796 yuan/mt, hit a high of 2,843 yuan/mt, touched a low of 2,783 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 2,821 yuan/mt, up 49 yuan/mt from the previous day. Open interest increased by 270 lots to 376,000 lots, as overall market trading remained cautious, while maintenance and production halts at alumina refineries provided some support to the bulls. Technically, the closing price was above the MA5 (2,797.60), MA10 (2,756.70), and MA30 (2,762.23), lending some upward momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator's DIF (3.87) crossed above the DEA (-3.49), forming a golden cross at low levels, with the histogram at 14.73, suggesting that alumina futures are expected to continue trading in the doldrums in the near term. Ore Side: As of February 2, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite index stood at $62.42/mt, down $1.96/mt from the previous day, mainly due to lower intended transaction prices between buyers and sellers and a decline in caustic soda prices compared to earlier periods. The SMM Guinea FOB average was reported at $39/mt, unchanged from the previous day. The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average was $61/mt, flat from the previous day. The SMM Australia low-temperature bauxite CIF average was $60/mt, down $2.5/mt from the previous day. The SMM Australia high-temperature bauxite CIF average was $56/mt, down $1.5/mt from the previous day. The Malaysia bauxite CIF average was $47/mt, unchanged from the previous day, while the Malaysia bauxite CIF (washed) average was $60/mt, down $1/mt from the previous day. The Ghana bauxite CIF price was $73/mt, down $0.5/mt from the previous day. The bauxite CFR (Turkey) price was $71.5/mt, down $2/mt from last Friday. On the domestic ore side, bauxite production resumptions in Shanxi were active, with current supply relatively ample, putting prices under pressure. For imported ore, recent intended transaction prices between buyers and sellers declined compared to earlier periods, and current market transactions were sluggish. Some alumina refineries reported cautious procurement plans amid the downtrend in ore prices. SMM will continue to monitor production at domestic and overseas mines, port shipments, and price trends. Spot Prices: As of February 2, 2025, the SMM alumina index was 2,620.68 yuan/mt, down 2.03 yuan/mt WoW. The SMM Shandong alumina index was 2,550.3 yuan/mt, down 0.41 yuan/mt WoW. The SMM Henan alumina index was 2,619.62 yuan/mt, down 1.17 yuan/mt WoW. The SMM Shanxi alumina index was 2,605.13 yuan/mt, down 1.61 yuan/mt WoW. The SMM Guizhou alumina index was 2,694.27 yuan/mt, down 3.79 yuan/mt WoW. The SMM Guangxi alumina index was 2,675.4 yuan/mt, down 5.19 yuan/mt WoW. Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report: According to SMM data, on February 2, the SMM alumina index was at a discount of 143.32 yuan/mt against the latest transaction price of the most-traded contract at 11:30. Warehouse Warrant Daily Report: On February 2, the total registered volume of alumina warehouse warrants increased by 11,100 mt from the previous trading day to 182,200 mt. The total registered volume in Shandong remained unchanged from the previous day at 7,796 mt, in Henan remained unchanged at 0 mt, in Guangxi remained unchanged at 7,505 mt, in Gansu increased by 903 mt to 17,400 mt, and in Xinjiang increased by 10,200 mt to 149,500 mt. Overseas Market: As of February 2, 2026, the FOB alumina price in Western Australia was $308/mt, the ocean freight rate was $20.2/mt, and the USD/CNY selling rate was around 6.97. This price translates to a selling price of approximately 2,665.08 yuan/mt at mainstream domestic ports, slightly higher than the SMM alumina index price by 44.4 yuan/mt. According to SMM model calculations, the import arbitrage window is closed. Summary: Overall, as of last Thursday, domestic alumina market inventory saw a slight rebound, with the overall oversupply situation continuing. Currently, some alumina refineries have commenced maintenance, with enterprises across various regions scheduling shutdowns of different scales, leading to a decline in the industry's operating rate and a weekly production decrease of 35,000 mt to 1.636 million mt. Inventory side, due to the increase in enterprises undergoing maintenance, in-factory alumina inventory decreased by 3,000 mt to 1.2408 million mt. Aluminum enterprise raw material inventory saw a slight increase to 3.603 million mt, mainly due to continuous deliveries under long-term agreements. Futures inventory, attracted by the previous strength in futures prices, saw increased delivery willingness, rising by 40,000 mt to 159,100 mt; while in-transit and station inventory decreased by 30,000 mt as cargoes gradually arrived at end-users. Overall, although the current inventory buildup pace has slowed compared to the previous period, overall industry inventory pressure persists, and the destocking process has fallen short of expectations. Subsequent attention should be paid to the implementation of enterprise maintenance. If the supply side fails to continue contracting, inventory is expected to maintain a slight accumulation trend next week, and spot alumina prices are likely to remain in the doldrums. [Except for publicly available information, other data are derived by SMM through processing based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.]

[The purchase price of caustic soda from the mainstream alumina factory in Shanxi Province] SMM informed that the purchase price of 50% ion membrane liquid alkali standing order of the mainstream alumina factory in Shanxi Province increased by 80 yuan/mt in June compared to May. And the delivery-to-factory price was 2,920-3,020 yuan/ton (price adjusted on a 100% concentration basis).

[The purchase price of caustic soda from the mainstream alumina factory in Shanxi Province has been adjusted in April] SMM informed that the purchase price of 32% ion membrane liquid alkali standing order of the mainstream alumina factory in Shanxi Province decreased by 540 yuan/ton compared to March, and the delivery-to-factory price was 2,840-2,940 yuan/ton (price adjusted on a 100% concentration basis).

To enhance user experience and improve the efficiency of the SMM database, we have optimized the categorization of certain data under the "Base Metal - Aluminum - Alumina" section.

SMM March 7, 2025: Dear Users, Greetings! To better serve our customers and improve the efficiency of the SMM database, we have optimized and adjusted the positions of certain data under the "Base Metal - Aluminum - Alumina" category. 1. The "Alumina - Production" category has been renamed to "Alumina - Capacity and Production." 2. The data categories "Alumina - Previous Inventory," "Alumina - Aluminum Smelter Alumina Inventory," "Alumina - Port Alumina Inventory," and "Alumina - In-Plant Inventory of Chinese Alumina Enterprises" have been moved to the "Alumina - Inventory" category. 3. A new "Alumina - Cost and Profit" category has been created, and the following data categories have been moved to it: "Alumina - Daily Cost Model of Alumina," "Alumina - Daily Profit Model of Shanxi Alumina (Domestic Ore Capacity)," "Alumina - Daily Profit Model of Shanxi Alumina (Imported Ore Capacity)," "Alumina - Daily Profit Model of Alumina," "Alumina - Daily Profit Model of Henan Alumina (Domestic Ore Capacity)," and "Alumina - Daily Profit Model of Henan Alumina (Imported Ore Capacity)." 4. The "Alumina - Provincial Data of Chinese Alumina - Provincial Data of Alumina" category has been deleted, and "Alumina - Provincial Data of Chinese Alumina" has been moved to the "Alumina - Capacity and Production" category. Additionally, the original "Alumina - Provincial Data of Chinese Alumina - Provincial Data of Alumina - Provincial Existing Capacity of Alumina" and "Alumina - Provincial Data of Chinese Alumina - Provincial Data of Alumina - Provincial Operating Rate of Alumina" have been moved to the "Alumina - Capacity and Production - Provincial Data of Chinese Alumina" category. 5. The original "Alumina - Provincial Data of Chinese Alumina - Monthly Overall Operating Rate of Chinese Alumina" has been moved to the "Alumina - Capacity and Production - SMM Monthly Production of Chinese Alumina" category. 6. A new "Alumina - Capacity and Production - Provincial Data of Chinese Alumina - Monthly Provincial Production of Alumina" category has been created, and the data for "Hebei," "Guangxi," "Guizhou," "Henan," "Inner Mongolia," "Shandong," "Shanxi," "Yunnan," and "Chongqing" under the original "Alumina - Production - SMM Monthly Production of Chinese Alumina" category have been moved to the "Alumina - Capacity and Production - Provincial Data of Chinese Alumina - Monthly Provincial Production of Alumina" category. 7. A new "Alumina - Capacity and Production - Provincial Data of Chinese Alumina - Weekly Provincial Production of Alumina" category has been created, and all data except "SMM Weekly Production of Chinese Alumina: Total" under the original "Alumina - Production - SMM Weekly Production of Chinese Alumina" category have been moved to the "Alumina - Capacity and Production - Provincial Data of Chinese Alumina - Weekly Provincial Production of Alumina" category. 8. The "Alumina - Weekly Operating Rate of Alumina" has been moved to the "Alumina - Capacity and Production - Provincial Data of Chinese Alumina" category and renamed to "Alumina - Capacity and Production - Provincial Data of Chinese Alumina - Weekly Provincial Operating Rate of Alumina." You can view the relevant data under the corresponding adjusted categories after the update. The data adjustments will take effect on March 21, 2025. SMM Aluminum Division

[Mainstream Alumina Refineries in Shanxi Raise Long-Term Contract Procurement Prices for Liquid Caustic Soda] The procurement prices of caustic soda for mainstream alumina refineries in Shanxi Province in March increased by 500 yuan/mt compared to January-February. The delivery-to-factory prices for 50% ion membrane liquid caustic soda were approximately 3,380-3,480 yuan/mt (converted to 100%), with slight variations in some regions due to different transportation distances.

Recent market rumors suggest that an alumina plant in Shanxi Province is expected to resume the second alumina production line in September, involving a production capacity of 1 million tons. However, according to SMM's research, the plant obtained approval for a new red mud pond in July, and the construction period of the new red mud pond is expected to be more than 6 months. Restricted by the red mud pond issue, the plant currently has no specific resumption time.

China is the highest alumina producer, contributing around 58 per cent of the world’s output.

China's copper cathode output in October was 993,800 mt, a decrease of 18,200 mt or 1.8% month-on-month, but a growth of 10.3% year-on-year.

SMM reports China's October metallurgical-grade alumina production at 6.842 million mt, averaging 220,700 mt/day, down 3700 mt/day MoM.