[SMM Shanghai spot copper] Tomorrow, following a pullback in copper prices during last night’s night session, some downstream enterprises actively bought the dip, driving a notable increase in intraday procurement demand. After low-priced cargo was quickly absorbed, suppliers showed signs of holding prices firm, weakening the momentum for subsequent low-price selling. Market structure, the inter-month spread has shifted to a backwardation structure, reducing the willingness to sell at low prices and supporting spot discounts. Supply side, during the night session, the import window briefly opened, potentially bringing in some overseas supply replenishment later. Overall, with combined support from the backwardation structure and downstream dip-buying, spot SHFE copper prices against the 2607 contract are expected to maintain discounts tomorrow, with the discount magnitude possibly narrowing slightly.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Tomorrow is expected to see spot prices against the SHFE copper 2607 contract remain at current levels. Shanghai social inventory stood at 139,400 mt, up 7,400 mt WoW from the previous Thursday; Jiangsu inventory was 44,400 mt, up 2,500 mt WoW, indicating a mild inventory buildup. SMM attributes the buildup mainly to arrivals from some domestic smelters and inflows of imported cargo, adding pressure on the supply side. Spot market activity was sluggish throughout the day. Suppliers initially quoted premiums at parity to 30 yuan/mt but, with insufficient follow-through buying, subsequently cut offers several times. By the second session, standard-quality copper traded at discounts of 50–30 yuan/mt, with some suppliers liquidating cargo and further dragging the premium center lower. Overall demand was weak, as downstream users made only just-in-time procurement and showed limited willingness to chase higher prices. Given inventory pressure and a stronger willingness to sell among suppliers, spot prices are expected to hold at current levels.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, next Monday marks the last trading day for the SHFE copper 2606 contract. According to SMM's #1 copper cathode price assessment methodology, SMM always quotes against the front-month contract. During the day, the center of copper prices moved up, and downstream procurement sentiment pulled back slightly, indicating that high prices somewhat curbed demand. Approaching delivery, suppliers showed a relatively strong willingness to deliver their open interest, keeping available cargo tight. In addition, spot inventory in the Guangdong region remained at a low level, with offers at a premium of around 200 yuan/mt, which may lend some support to premiums in the Shanghai region. Overall, premiums for Shanghai spot copper against the SHFE 2606 copper contract next Monday are expected to remain at a premium level.

[SMM Shanghai spot copper] Nearing delivery, the inter-month contango spread remains in the 70-10 yuan/mt range. Suppliers are optimistic about near-term premiums, with strong sentiment to hold prices firm and hold back from selling. After standard-quality copper cargoes at a discount of 20 yuan/mt were quickly traded in early business, low-priced cargoes became hard to find in the market. From the demand side, downstream buyers’ acceptance of current premium offers is limited, with overall demand largely need-based and limited willingness to chase higher prices. The discount for non-registered copper remains at 200-180 yuan/mt, indicating that overall consumption support is not strong. On balance, amid the tug-of-war between delivery-logic-backed firm offers and limited downstream acceptance, Shanghai spot copper quotes against the SHFE copper 2606 contract are expected to maintain the current pattern tomorrow, with the center of premiums possibly shifting slightly higher.

[SMM Shanghai spot copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, approaching delivery, the C-month price spread holds between 70 yuan/mt and -20 yuan/mt, with suppliers, bullish on near-term premiums, holding back from selling. In addition, SMM understands that some enterprises have exported spot cargoes to bonded warehouses, tightening available supply. Moreover, the import window remains closed, limiting the inflow of ex-China cargoes. Overall, supported by consumption demand and delivery-related dynamics, the discount of Shanghai spot copper against the SHFE 2606 contract is expected to continue narrowing tomorrow, with some brands likely to remain at parity or a slight premium.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, spot copper discounts are expected to continue narrowing slightly. Copper prices rose during the session, but the Contango price spread between nearby futures contracts widened slightly. Suppliers showed a strong willingness to hold prices firm, driving spot discounts to narrow marginally. Available supplies in the Changzhou area remained persistently tight, which may support local spot prices. However, as month-end approaches, market trading is turning sluggish, with downstream purchases driven mainly by rigid demand and limited willingness to chase higher prices, and overall transactions are expected to be just balanced. Overall, under the combined effects of suppliers holding prices firm and sluggish month-end trading, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2606 contract are expected to remain at a discount, with the discount likely to move sideways.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Intraday SHFE copper prices edged down, effectively activating some downstream buying interest. According to SMM, orders from some downstream processing enterprises increased by approximately 30% compared to the previous trading day, with some transactions concentrated around 103,500 yuan/mt, indicating that current price levels still hold certain appeal for end-users. Inventory side, SMM data showed that social inventory in the Shanghai area registered 181,800 mt, down 2,800 mt WoW from last Thursday; inventory in the Jiangsu area was 38,100 mt, up slightly 1,200 mt WoW from last Thursday. Overall, a mild destocking trend was observed, with inventory pressure easing marginally. From market performance, suppliers' offers remained basically stable, and the transaction center showed no significant downward shift. Overall, supported by demand release stimulated by copper price pullbacks and mild destocking, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2606 contract are expected to remain at a discount tomorrow, continuing a generally stable trend.

Looking ahead to tomorrow's Shanghai copper spot market, on the demand side, night session copper prices rose, reducing downstream acceptance and pulling back intraday buying – a sign of price sensitivity. The front-month contango widened to 180-110 yuan/t, encouraging holders to firm up offers and limiting spot discounts. However, consumption in northern regions (Gansu, Shanxi, Henan) softened, with some smelters reshipping to Shanghai, pointing to higher east China supply ahead. SMM data shows Shanghai social inventories at 188.0kt, down 2.8kt w/w but destocking slowed notably, reflecting weak buying appetite at current prices. Overall, with contango support balanced against potential supply inflows, spot quotes against the 2605 contract are expected to hold steady.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, on the supply side, some delivery warrants have already begun to flow out during the day, exerting downward pressure on spot premiums. Market concerns over the concentrated release of warrants going forward persist, and suppliers have a strong willingness to sell, putting spot premiums for Shanghai copper under pressure. On the demand side, copper prices saw a slight correction, and downstream procurement was mainly driven by rigid demand, with insufficient willingness to chase higher prices. In addition, the intraday price spread between Shanghai and Guangdong spot premiums continued to rise to around 150 yuan/mt. The strong premiums in Guangdong may provide some support to Shanghai market sentiment, but it is difficult to reverse the overall weak supply-demand pattern in the short term. Overall, spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2605 contract are expected to remain at current levels next Monday.

Looking ahead, the Shanghai copper spot market is expected to remain strong. Although some holders sold off part of their inventories at low prices during the day, this did not suppress the spot premium/discount; overall quotes stayed firm, reflecting strong support for the current premium. From the delivery logic, as the delivery date approaches, the inter-month Contango spread remains at a certain width, and holders' willingness to hold positions for delivery supports the spot premium. Additionally, tomorrow some holders may start making tentative quotes for the next-month contract, shifting market focus to post-rollover pricing. In summary, the spot premium over the 2604 contract for Shanghai copper is expected to remain.