[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, on the supply side, some delivery warrants have already begun to flow out during the day, exerting downward pressure on spot premiums. Market concerns over the concentrated release of warrants going forward persist, and suppliers have a strong willingness to sell, putting spot premiums for Shanghai copper under pressure. On the demand side, copper prices saw a slight correction, and downstream procurement was mainly driven by rigid demand, with insufficient willingness to chase higher prices. In addition, the intraday price spread between Shanghai and Guangdong spot premiums continued to rise to around 150 yuan/mt. The strong premiums in Guangdong may provide some support to Shanghai market sentiment, but it is difficult to reverse the overall weak supply-demand pattern in the short term. Overall, spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2605 contract are expected to remain at current levels next Monday.

Looking ahead, the Shanghai copper spot market is expected to remain strong. Although some holders sold off part of their inventories at low prices during the day, this did not suppress the spot premium/discount; overall quotes stayed firm, reflecting strong support for the current premium. From the delivery logic, as the delivery date approaches, the inter-month Contango spread remains at a certain width, and holders' willingness to hold positions for delivery supports the spot premium. Additionally, tomorrow some holders may start making tentative quotes for the next-month contract, shifting market focus to post-rollover pricing. In summary, the spot premium over the 2604 contract for Shanghai copper is expected to remain.

Next week, Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to remain firm. As delivery approaches, the price spread between the C contracts widened, supporting premiums. Rising copper prices may weaken some downstream orders, but existing demand and immediate procurement remain stable. Tight spot supply in Jiangsu further pushed up premiums. Overall, the premium of spot cargo against the SHFE 2604 contract is expected to continue.

Looking ahead, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to remain under pressure. Demand side, after the rapid rise in copper prices, orders from downstream enterprises decreased somewhat, with most enterprises still primarily making just-in-time procurement, and demand resilience remains. Market structure side, the inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts widened slightly. Suppliers holding long positions in near-month contracts, under the contango structure, are more inclined to hold open interest for delivery rather than sell spot copper at low prices, with low willingness to sell at reduced prices and a strong willingness to hold prices firm. Overall, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2604 contract are expected to remain at current levels tomorrow.

Looking ahead, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to remain under pressure. Supply side, although some suppliers offloaded cargo during the day, the discount did not widen significantly. Going forward, suppliers showed a stronger willingness to hold prices firm, with some enterprises controlling the pace of shipments, providing support for spot copper. Available supplies in Jiangsu were tight, further strengthening suppliers' willingness to hold prices firm. Demand side, on the first trading day after the Qingming Festival, downstream enterprises showed high enthusiasm for resuming operations, procurement sentiment recovered, and support from just-in-time procurement remained. Overall, driven by the combined effect of suppliers holding prices firm and downstream restocking, Shangh

Shanghai copper spot to remain weak tomorrow. On the supply side, the import window is open, raising expectations of further inflows. Some imported cargoes are circulating, keeping spot discounts under pressure. Meanwhile, some smelters are accelerating shipments to reduce inventories before the holiday, adding to supply pressure. On the demand side, downstream buyers remain cautious, mostly purchasing on rigid needs with limited appetite for higher prices. Some pre-holiday restocking ahead of the Qingming festival may offer modest support, but it is unlikely to reverse the overall weak supply-demand balance. In summary, spot quotes against the 2604 contract are expected to hold at current levels.

Shanghai copper spot to stay under pressure tomorrow. Recent arrivals of imported copper—including Japanese brands like SRP and TAMANO-P—are weighing on spot discounts. Demand softened as end-users showed limited acceptance of higher prices. Some holiday restocking emerged, but high spot inventories cap any upside. The narrow spread between high-grade and standard-grade copper reflects subdued actual consumption. The spot discount against the 2604 contract is expected to persist.

During the day, the SHFE 2604 copper contract extended its downward trend, with the trading range falling further to 95,500-96,000 yuan/mt. The center of copper prices continued to move lower, stimulating restocking demand from downstream enterprises. Suppliers accordingly held prices firm, with standard-quality copper such as JCC and Lufang quoted at parity, while other brands such as Tiefeng, OLYDA, and Zijin were successively traded at discounts of 40 yuan/mt to 20 yuan/mt. Overall transaction pace was smooth. According to SMM, order volumes at most downstream enterprises surged significantly from the previous period, and end-user cargo pick-up also improved. The pullback in copper prices increased their attractiveness to enterprises, and purchase willingness to buy the dip was strong.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] The widening contango price spread between futures contracts for nearby months continued to strengthen suppliers’ willingness to ship to delivery warehouses, further tightening the availability of freely tradable spot copper and providing solid support for spot premiums. Against this backdrop, suppliers showed strong sentiment to hold prices firm during the day, with offers remaining firm. Demand side, downstream buyers maintained just-in-time procurement, providing some support for prices; supply side, although social inventory remained at a high level, more than half of the cargoes had already been converted into warrants, and spot circulation stayed tight. Shanghai added 1,759 mt of warrants yesterday, further intensifying the tightness in freely tradable cargo availability. Overall, under the dominance of delivery logic, Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to remain in premium territory tomorrow.

As of March 9, SMM recorded total social inventory of copper cathode in major regions of China at 578,900 mt, up 1,700 mt from last week and up 70,400 mt from February 24, reaching a historical high. Over the same period, spot premiums for SMM #1 copper cathode gradually recovered from premium -260 yuan/mt on February 27 to parity on March 10. Overall, this upswing in spot premiums was mainly driven by the approach of delivery, under which the contango price spread between nearby and next-month contracts stayed around 300 yuan/mt; suppliers held prices firm and withheld sales, while about half of the material was converted into warrants and locked in, jointly tightening circulating supply. Observing the inventory accumulation pace, from the week of March 2 to March 9, inventories in three key regions increased by 14,400 tons, a growth of 2.65%. This marks a significant slowdown compared to the average weekly increase of approximately 45,000 tons during the period from February 5 to February 26. The deceleration in inventory buildup provided room for improvement in premiums. Current inventory accumulation primarily stems from two factors: First, the continued arrival of imported copper. According to SMM research, a substantial volume of imported copper continues to arrive recently, and it is expected that arrivals will not see a significant decline in March. The steady inflow of imported materials provides a continuous supply supplement to the domestic market and is a crucial support for maintaining high total inventory levels. The actual situation of imported arrivals in April remains to be confirmed, requiring close attention to customs data at month-end and changes in port clearance pace. Second, some cargoes are being delivered into bonded/warehouse warrant stocks. According to the electrolytic copper spot purchasing and selling sentiment indices for the Shanghai region recorded by SMM, the purchasing sentiment index rose from 2.08 on February 24 to 2.78 on March 10, while the selling sentiment index increased from 2.09 to 2.90 over the same period. Some downstream players have limited acceptance of current copper prices, maintaining a procurement strategy focused on immediate needs, resulting in selling sentiment slightly outpacing purchasing sentiment. Based on SMM's communications with enterprises: Upstream Producer 1: Recent consumption is relatively good, with daily sales around 2,000 tons. Upstream Producer 2: Currently produced electrolytic copper is primarily for export. Domestic inventories are low, so there's no rush to sell. Unwilling to sell when discounts are excessive. Trader 1: Quotations in the Changzhou market are higher than in Shanghai, mainly because locally available circulating cargoes are mostly warrants. Under the current spread structure, holders have high flexibility in selling – they can choose to sell or hold. Trader 2: The market is not short of supply; there are still a large number of warrants in warehouses awaiting digestion. However, due to the delivery mechanism, the incentive to sell depends on the premium level. Only when the premium exceeds the cost of capital will there be a strong willingness to liquidate. Downstream User 1: Recent orders are relatively robust. When copper prices fell on March 9, we already replenished inventories at the low point. Current raw material inventory can sustain operations until March 15. There are no immediate plans for further procurement; subsequent needs will primarily be met through long-term contract drawdowns. Downstream User 2: The recent spot premium has been quite firm, mainly due to the spread between months. Without such a high monthly spread, the premium would definitely not reach this level. In summary, this round of recovery in spot premiums is driven by multiple factors: First, the approach of delivery and the widening monthly spread strengthened holders' willingness to support prices. With delivery approaching, the Contango spread between months remains around 300 yuan/ton. Holders are underpinning prices, reluctant to sell, and strongly inclined to deliver stocks into warrants. Second, the inventory structure further amplified the tightness of available circulating supply. Taking Jiangsu as an example, out of 118,000 tons of social inventory, 94,000 tons were futures warrants. This portion is locked in delivery warehouses, making it difficult to form effective supply in the short term, leading to a phase of relative tightness in spot market circulating cargoes. According to SMM, some downstream companies in Jiangsu struggled to source materials in the market and opted to procure using the SMM Flat Copper Price average as a benchmark with minor adjustments. Third, the comprehensive resumption of work by downstream enterprises released procurement demand. After the Lantern Festival, downstream processing enterprises in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai entered a full resumption phase. Surveys indicate that companies in the battery materials sector maintain high operating rates. Copper foil processors reported that downstream battery manufacturers sustain high operating rates, with March production schedules already showing characteristics of the peak season. Copper tube companies, supported by peak season stocking from the air conditioning industry, have operating rates exceeding pre-holiday levels. Although the recovery pace in the wire & cable and copper rod sectors is relatively slow, overall procurement demand has significantly improved compared to the first week after the holiday. Fourth, the decline in copper prices activated downstream restocking intentions. Recently, Shanghai copper futures prices retreated somewhat, stimulating downstream enterprises to purchase at dips. Previously suppressed by high copper prices, downstream players mostly maintained a cautious just-in-time procurement strategy, resulting in generally low raw material inventory levels. After the price pullback, some companies took the opportunity to replenish stocks, boosting spot transaction activity.