[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Copper prices rose from yesterday, but both buying and selling sentiment pulled back intraday, indicating that downstream acceptance of current price levels remained limited. In terms of market structure, under the current price spread between futures contracts structure, suppliers showed strong willingness to sell, with some offloading cargo, driving overall spot discounts down rapidly, while downstream willingness to make counteroffers was relatively evident. Entering the second trading session, after premiums were cut further, market transactions improved somewhat, but downstream procurement remained generally cautious, mainly focused on restocking on dips, with insufficient willingness to chase higher prices. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between suppliers actively selling and downstream buyers purchasing cautiously, Shanghai spot copper discounts were expected to remain under pressure tomorrow.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $11,816/mt. After dipping to $11,798/mt in early trading, its center rose sharply to a high of $12,395/mt, then hovered at highs, and finally closed at $12,221/mt, up 3.27%. Trading volume reached 52,000 lots, and open interest stood at 292,000 lots, down 944 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bears cutting positions overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 95,010 yuan/mt. After the opening, its center moved higher to a high of 95,900 yuan/mt, after which copper prices maintained a fluctuating trend at highs. Near the close, it dipped to 94,530 yuan/mt and finally closed at 93,840 yuan/mt, up 2.12%. Trading volume reached 120,000 lots, and open interest stood at 198,000 lots, down 6,741 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bears cutting positions throughout the day.

SMM News, March 24: Today, in Guangdong, spot prices for #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract were reported at a premium of 70 yuan/mt for high-quality copper, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; a discount of 30 yuan/mt for standard-quality copper, down 20 yuan/mt from yesterday; and a discount of 90 yuan/mt for SX-EW copper, down 20 yuan/mt from yesterday. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 94,030 yuan/mt, up 1,045 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 93,920 yuan/mt, up 1,055 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory declined for six consecutive days, mainly due to limited arrivals and higher shipments. Although inventory continued to fall, downstream users showed weak restocking interest as copper prices surged sharply. Suppliers had to keep lowering spot premiums to conclude deals. Overall, trading activity in the market was noticeably weaker today than yesterday. Today, the purchasing sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong was 2.48, down 0.15 from the previous trading day, and the shipment sentiment was 3.31, down 0.11 from the previous trading day (historical data is available in the database). Overall, after the sharp rebound in copper prices, downstream buying sentiment weakened, and spot premiums moved lower.

According to SMM data, the operating rate of copper pipe & tube enterprises was 58.74% in February, down 14.13 percentage points MoM and down 11.54 percentage points YoY. February was affected by the Chinese New Year holiday. Leading enterprises maintained stable production and supply, with production showing strong resilience, basically sustaining “no holiday shutdowns” or only 0–3 days , and ensuring normal operations during the Chinese New Year period through shift rotations on production lines. Although orders saw slight fluctuations of 2%–10%, they remained overall under control. However, small and medium-sized enterprises performed poorly in February, dragging down the overall operating rate. Looking ahead to March, the operating rate of copper pipe & tube enterprises is expected to be 77.88%, up 19.14 percentage points MoM and down 7.35 percentage points YoY. The March production schedule of key air-conditioner enterprises fell 9.3% YoY from last year, in line with the YoY decline trend in copper pipe & tube operating rates. However, most copper pipe & tube enterprises said March production is expected to be better than expectations, and there are concerns over advance production and stockpiling. Worth noting is that R&D on high-performance alloy copper tubes by China’s leading enterprises will further reduce copper consumption in air conditioners, and most other enterprises are currently developing this type of technology as well. This has also increased orders for those domestic copper pipe & tube enterprises that already possess such technology, diluting the market share of other enterprises. In addition, the conflict in the Middle East reduced some home appliance export orders to the region, and the April production schedules of some domestic air-conditioner enterprises with relatively high market share exposure there are expected to decline.

March 24, 2026: The average warrant price was unchanged from the previous trading day, closing at $52/mt (price range: $44-60/mt); the average B/L price was unchanged from the previous trading day, closing at $53/mt (price range: $45-61/mt); the average price of EQ copper (CIF B/L) was unchanged from the previous trading day, closing at $30/mt (price range: $25-35/mt), with quotations referring to cargoes scheduled to arrive from late March to mid-April. Intraday offers showed faint signs of continuing to rise, but transactions delivered mediocre performance. It was heard that a small volume of pyrometallurgy B/L arriving in late March was offered at $50-60/mt, QP April; EQ B/L arriving in late March and early April was offered at $35, while EQ B/L arriving in mid-to-late April was offered at $35/mt and traded at $30/mt, with QP available in both April and May. General ER copper warrants for delivery within the week were offered at $50/mt, QP April.

On the morning of March 10, the unveiling ceremony and construction launch meeting for the Shanghai Key Laboratory of Efficient Green Fuel Synthesis Systems Engineering (Preparatory) were successfully held at Shanghai Boiler Works Co., Ltd. Xuan Fuzhen, President of East China University of Science and Technology, and Wu Lei, Party Secretary and Chairman of Shanghai Electric Group, jointly unveiled the laboratory, marking the official entry of the key laboratory’s development into a new stage of substantive progress. Zheng Guanghong, Second-Level Inspector of the Shanghai Municipal Science and Technology Commission, witnessed the ceremony on site. Led by Shanghai Boiler Works Co., Ltd. and jointly established with East China University of Science and Technology, the laboratory focuses on tackling critical “bottleneck” technological challenges in the application field of efficient synthesis of green fuels such as green methanol, green ammonia, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). It has precisely laid out three core research directions: efficient synthesis of diversified green fuels, high-efficiency clean power equipment, and AI + digital twin flexible regulation and control. It is committed to building a full-chain innovation system spanning basic R&D, pilot-scale verification, and industrialisation, thereby supporting breakthroughs in green fuel technologies and their industrial application. Wu Lei, Party Secretary and Chairman of Shanghai Electric Group, stated at the event that the high-standard development of the key laboratory for green fuels is an important practice for Shanghai Electric in implementing the national development strategy for new quality productive forces in the energy sector and promoting the deep integration of green fuel technological innovation with industry. Shanghai Electric will use the laboratory’s development as an important lever, providing comprehensive support in policy, resources, funding, and other aspects, fully integrating high-quality internal and external resources, and making every effort to advance technological research, professional talent cultivation, and the commercialisation of scientific research achievements, thereby contributing wisdom and strength to the high-quality development of China’s green fuel industry. Xuan Fuzhen, President of East China University of Science and Technology, pointed out that the university will give full play to its disciplinary strengths, carry out close and pragmatic cooperation with Shanghai Electric, vigorously promote the deep integration of industry, academia, and research, focus on core challenges in green fuel synthesis technologies and equipment, strive to achieve major technological breakthroughs, and work together to build a benchmark for collaborative innovation among industry, academia, and research. Jin Xiaolong, Member of the Party Committee and Vice President of Shanghai Electric Group, Vice President Qiu Jiayou, and relevant leaders from the Shanghai Municipal Science and Technology Commission, East China University of Science and Technology, and Shanghai Electric Power Station Group attended the event.

According to the latest data disclosed by the General Administration of Customs, China’s imported copper cathode market, while maintaining the 2025 baseline, is facing dual challenges: the continued rise in the share of EQ copper and whether global supply will continue to be diverted. China’s cumulative copper cathode imports in January-February 2026 totaled 356,900 mt, down 33.13% YoY.

[Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to remain in a tug-of-war. Copper prices declined somewhat during the day, and downstream enterprises showed stronger restocking sentiment, but considering the heavy concentrated purchases already made last week, actual incremental buying was relatively limited. Inventory side, according to SMM, combined social inventory in Shanghai and Jiangsu fell by about 41,600 mt, showing a sharp destocking trend. During the day, supplier quotations were steady at first and then declined, with suppliers actively selling as premiums rebounded, and the sell-off put pressure on spot prices. In addition, some suppliers had already quoted against the SHFE copper 2604 contract using cargoes with invoices dated next month during the day, indirectly reflecting moderate sales volume within the month and strong willingness to sell among suppliers. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between faster destocking and supplier sell-offs, Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to remain at the current level tomorrow.

SMM News, March 23: Data brief: As of Monday, March 23, SMM copper inventories in major regions nationwide fell 14.54% WoW from last Monday, with all regions posting significant destocking. Specifically, in Shanghai, the arrival pace of imported and domestic supplies remained normal, while downstream consumption continued to recover on the back of the pullback in copper prices, leading to notable inventory drawdowns; in Jiangsu, downstream consumption also improved significantly amid the sharp pullback in copper prices; in Guangdong, downstream consumption remained highly buoyant, and together with tighter supply, spot inventory dropped sharply. Looking ahead, arrivals of imported and domestic supplies are expected to remain stable, with the overall supply side tending to stabilize; on the demand side, the continued pullback in copper prices will further stimulate downstream procurement demand, and rigid demand is expected to continue to be released. According to survey data, the weekly operating rate of copper cathode rod is expected to rise to 83.76% this week, up 2.25 percentage points WoW. Considering both supply and demand, the market has currently formed a pattern of “stabilizing supply and continued recovery in consumption,” and social inventory is expected to continue destocking this week.

Silver prices fluctuated and stabilized today, and the spot-futures price spread between TD and the most-traded SHFE silver contract widened slightly. Suppliers' premium quotations rose slightly from yesterday. In the Shanghai market, during early trading, mainstream quotations from suppliers of national-standard silver ingots were at premiums of 100-120 yuan/kg against TD, or at a premium of 50 yuan/kg against the SHFE silver 2604 contract. A few suppliers were reluctant to sell small volumes at premiums of 120-150 yuan/kg against TD. After negotiations, mainstream transaction prices for mt-level volumes in the market were close to premiums of 70-100 yuan/kg against TD, or near parity against the 2604 contract. Downstream enterprises actively negotiated and bought the dip, and consumption improved slightly compared with yesterday.