[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Intraday SHFE copper prices edged down, effectively activating some downstream buying interest. According to SMM, orders from some downstream processing enterprises increased by approximately 30% compared to the previous trading day, with some transactions concentrated around 103,500 yuan/mt, indicating that current price levels still hold certain appeal for end-users. Inventory side, SMM data showed that social inventory in the Shanghai area registered 181,800 mt, down 2,800 mt WoW from last Thursday; inventory in the Jiangsu area was 38,100 mt, up slightly 1,200 mt WoW from last Thursday. Overall, a mild destocking trend was observed, with inventory pressure easing marginally. From market performance, suppliers' offers remained basically stable, and the transaction center showed no significant downward shift. Overall, supported by demand release stimulated by copper price pullbacks and mild destocking, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2606 contract are expected to remain at a discount tomorrow, continuing a generally stable trend.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, on the supply side, some delivery warrants have already begun to flow out during the day, exerting downward pressure on spot premiums. Market concerns over the concentrated release of warrants going forward persist, and suppliers have a strong willingness to sell, putting spot premiums for Shanghai copper under pressure. On the demand side, copper prices saw a slight correction, and downstream procurement was mainly driven by rigid demand, with insufficient willingness to chase higher prices. In addition, the intraday price spread between Shanghai and Guangdong spot premiums continued to rise to around 150 yuan/mt. The strong premiums in Guangdong may provide some support to Shanghai market sentiment, but it is difficult to reverse the overall weak supply-demand pattern in the short term. Overall, spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2605 contract are expected to remain at current levels next Monday.

Looking ahead, the Shanghai copper spot market is expected to remain strong. Although some holders sold off part of their inventories at low prices during the day, this did not suppress the spot premium/discount; overall quotes stayed firm, reflecting strong support for the current premium. From the delivery logic, as the delivery date approaches, the inter-month Contango spread remains at a certain width, and holders' willingness to hold positions for delivery supports the spot premium. Additionally, tomorrow some holders may start making tentative quotes for the next-month contract, shifting market focus to post-rollover pricing. In summary, the spot premium over the 2604 contract for Shanghai copper is expected to remain.

Next week, Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to remain firm. As delivery approaches, the price spread between the C contracts widened, supporting premiums. Rising copper prices may weaken some downstream orders, but existing demand and immediate procurement remain stable. Tight spot supply in Jiangsu further pushed up premiums. Overall, the premium of spot cargo against the SHFE 2604 contract is expected to continue.

Looking ahead, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to remain under pressure. Demand side, after the rapid rise in copper prices, orders from downstream enterprises decreased somewhat, with most enterprises still primarily making just-in-time procurement, and demand resilience remains. Market structure side, the inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts widened slightly. Suppliers holding long positions in near-month contracts, under the contango structure, are more inclined to hold open interest for delivery rather than sell spot copper at low prices, with low willingness to sell at reduced prices and a strong willingness to hold prices firm. Overall, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2604 contract are expected to remain at current levels tomorrow.

Looking ahead, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to remain under pressure. Supply side, although some suppliers offloaded cargo during the day, the discount did not widen significantly. Going forward, suppliers showed a stronger willingness to hold prices firm, with some enterprises controlling the pace of shipments, providing support for spot copper. Available supplies in Jiangsu were tight, further strengthening suppliers' willingness to hold prices firm. Demand side, on the first trading day after the Qingming Festival, downstream enterprises showed high enthusiasm for resuming operations, procurement sentiment recovered, and support from just-in-time procurement remained. Overall, driven by the combined effect of suppliers holding prices firm and downstream restocking, Shangh

Shanghai copper spot to remain weak tomorrow. On the supply side, the import window is open, raising expectations of further inflows. Some imported cargoes are circulating, keeping spot discounts under pressure. Meanwhile, some smelters are accelerating shipments to reduce inventories before the holiday, adding to supply pressure. On the demand side, downstream buyers remain cautious, mostly purchasing on rigid needs with limited appetite for higher prices. Some pre-holiday restocking ahead of the Qingming festival may offer modest support, but it is unlikely to reverse the overall weak supply-demand balance. In summary, spot quotes against the 2604 contract are expected to hold at current levels.

Shanghai copper spot to stay under pressure tomorrow. Recent arrivals of imported copper—including Japanese brands like SRP and TAMANO-P—are weighing on spot discounts. Demand softened as end-users showed limited acceptance of higher prices. Some holiday restocking emerged, but high spot inventories cap any upside. The narrow spread between high-grade and standard-grade copper reflects subdued actual consumption. The spot discount against the 2604 contract is expected to persist.

During the day, the SHFE 2604 copper contract extended its downward trend, with the trading range falling further to 95,500-96,000 yuan/mt. The center of copper prices continued to move lower, stimulating restocking demand from downstream enterprises. Suppliers accordingly held prices firm, with standard-quality copper such as JCC and Lufang quoted at parity, while other brands such as Tiefeng, OLYDA, and Zijin were successively traded at discounts of 40 yuan/mt to 20 yuan/mt. Overall transaction pace was smooth. According to SMM, order volumes at most downstream enterprises surged significantly from the previous period, and end-user cargo pick-up also improved. The pullback in copper prices increased their attractiveness to enterprises, and purchase willingness to buy the dip was strong.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] The widening contango price spread between futures contracts for nearby months continued to strengthen suppliers’ willingness to ship to delivery warehouses, further tightening the availability of freely tradable spot copper and providing solid support for spot premiums. Against this backdrop, suppliers showed strong sentiment to hold prices firm during the day, with offers remaining firm. Demand side, downstream buyers maintained just-in-time procurement, providing some support for prices; supply side, although social inventory remained at a high level, more than half of the cargoes had already been converted into warrants, and spot circulation stayed tight. Shanghai added 1,759 mt of warrants yesterday, further intensifying the tightness in freely tradable cargo availability. Overall, under the dominance of delivery logic, Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to remain in premium territory tomorrow.