[SMM Silicon PV Morning Brief] Silicon metal: Yesterday, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was around 9,000 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon was around 9,200 yuan/mt, stable from the previous day. The most-traded contract on the futures market consolidated in a stalemate below 8,400 yuan/mt. Recently, driven by supply-demand fundamentals, prices have encountered resistance, and are in a stalemate, consolidating on a subdued note. Wafers: Market prices for 18X wafers are 0.85-0.88 yuan/piece, 210RN wafers at 0.96-0.98 yuan/piece, and 210N wafers at 1.16-1.18 yuan/piece. Recently, cell enterprises have been calling for lower wafer prices, putting near-term wafer prices under pressure.

SMM, July 8: Metals Market: Overnight, base metals on the domestic market generally rose. SHFE copper rose 0.14%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.59%, SHFE lead rose 0.88%, SHFE zinc edged lower, and SHFE tin rose 0.51%. SHFE nickel fell 0.16%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.18%, and the most-traded casting aluminum futures contract rose 0.85%. Overnight, ferrous metals all fell. Stainless steel fell 0.27%, iron ore fell 0.34%, rebar fell 0.2%, and hot-rolled coil fell 0.21%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.2%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 0.74%. Overnight on the overseas market, LME base metals generally fell. LME copper fell 0.57%, LME aluminum rose 0.84%, LME lead rose 0.35%, LME zinc fell 0.22%, LME tin fell 0.19%, and LME nickel fell 1.36%. Overnight in precious metals : COMEX gold fell 1.22%, COMEX silver fell 3.09%. The most-traded SHFE gold futures contract rose 0.08% overnight, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures contract fell 0.7%. As of 7:13 am on July 8, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [State Council: Approves the '15th Five-Year Plan for Building a Tourism Power'] The State Council issued a reply regarding the '15th Five-Year Plan for Building a Tourism Power' and approved the plan in principle. The reply stated that the plan's implementation should fully, accurately and comprehensively implement the new development philosophy, adhere to tourism serving the people, take promoting high-quality development as the theme, advance deep integration of culture and tourism as the main line, coordinate between government and market, supply and demand, protection and development, domestic and international, development and security, strive to improve the modern tourism system, optimize the spatial layout of tourism, cultivate new drivers for tourism development, enrich tourism supply, unleash consumption potential, improve service quality, promote high-efficiency governance, deepen exchanges and cooperation in the tourism sector, accelerate the building of a tourism power, so that the tourism industry can better serve a better life, promote economic development, build a spiritual home, showcase China's image, and enhance mutual learning among civilizations. [China's June forex reserves down 0.75% MoM; central bank's gold reserves increase for 20th consecutive month] Data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) showed that by the end of June 2026, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $3,416.3 billion, down $26 billion or 0.75% from the end of May. In June 2026, affected by factors such as macroeconomic data of major economies, monetary policies of major central banks and expectations, the US dollar index rose, and global financial asset prices showed mixed performance. The combined effects of exchange rate translation and asset price changes led to a decline in foreign exchange reserves during the month. China's economy has been generally stable and moving toward new and improved development, which helps keep the scale of foreign exchange reserves basically stable. In addition, PBOC data showed that China's gold reserves at end-June stood at 75.44 million ounces (approx. 2,346.446 mt), a MoM increase of 480,000 ounces (approx. 14.93 mt). At end-May, gold reserves were 74.96 million ounces (approx. 2,331.52 mt). This marks the 20th consecutive month of gold purchases. US Dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.22% to 101.09. Soaring oil prices boosted inflation expectations. Additionally, according to the CME FedWatch Tool: the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 73.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 26.7%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged by September is 32.4%, of a cumulative 25bp hike is 52.7%, and of a cumulative 50bp hike is 14.9%. The US trade deficit in May hit the largest since March 2025 as exports fell and imports rose. Data released by the US Commerce Department on Tuesday showed that the goods and services trade deficit widened 42.2% MoM to $77.6 billion in May. Exports dropped 3.2% in May, dragged down by declines in non-monetary gold exports. Imports rose 3.3%. In the months before the deficit widened, oil and petroleum product exports, boosted by the Iran war, had been helping to offset the continued surge in capital goods imports related to the country's domestic data center construction. The report showed that oil exports continued to grow in May. Meanwhile, imports of computer accessories and semiconductors rose again, while imports of computer and telecom equipment retreated. Recent PMI surveys suggested that imports may also have been boosted by US enterprises stockpiling in advance to avoid war-related supply chain disruptions and price increases. The May trade data will help economists firm up their Q2 GDP estimates. (Jin10 Data App) Macro: Today, data including New Zealand's RBNZ interest rate decision for July 8 and US May wholesale sales MoM will be released. Additionally, watch for: the RBNZ's interest rate decision announcement; RBNZ Governor Bullman's monetary policy press conference. Crude Oil: Overnight, both oil futures surged, with US crude up 5.32% and Brent crude up 5.49%. The tanker attack in the Strait of Hormuz triggered a chain reaction. The US Treasury Department announced the revocation of the Iran oil sales waiver, pushing oil prices higher. The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of the US Treasury subsequently announced that, effective July 7, it revoked the Iran oil sales waiver previously issued under the framework of the US-Iran interim peace agreement. The waiver was originally valid until August 21. The statement said no new related transactions are allowed. (Wall Street Journal) EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook: forecasts 2026 WTI crude oil price at $76.26/bbl, previously $88.32/bbl; forecasts 2027 WTI crude oil price at $60.76/bbl, previously $74.39/bbl; forecasts 2026 Brent crude oil price at $81.91/bbl, previously $95.39/bbl; forecasts 2027 Brent crude oil price at $64.76/bbl, previously $79.39/bbl. (Jin10 Data App)

In June, market expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes heated up, driving the US dollar index up more than 2% for the month. This coincided with the electronics industry entering the traditional off-season and weak end-use demand, while doubts lingered over the sustainability of the AI sector rally. Profit-taking on earlier high-price positions intensified, and these combined factors dragged tin prices lower. SHFE tin fell 7.08% in June, while LME tin dropped 6.68% over the same period. Since the start of July, comments from Warsh at the Sintra Forum that "inflation expectations have declined over the past four weeks, and inflation risks have also diminished," together with US June non-farm payrolls data missing expectations, have cooled market expectations for US Fed rate hikes. At the same time, tech stocks rebounded. These multiple positive drivers pushed tin prices to drift higher in early July. As of around 16:51 on July 6, LME tin was up 1.26% to $52,970/mt, with its month-to-date July gain at 2.56%; SHFE tin was up 3.09% to 410,360 yuan/mt, with a 5.4% month-to-date rise. Spot Market Tin prices fell over 8% in June; spot prices rose for consecutive days in July but wait-and-see sentiment prevails Spot tin prices: SMM #1 tin spot price rose for four consecutive days, with the July 6 quote at 406,900-415,300 yuan/mt and the average price at 411,100 yuan/mt, up 2.96% from the previous trading day. As tin prices rebounded, wait-and-see sentiment intensified in the spot market. Only some rigid demand purchases were made, and overall market trading activity was subdued. Looking at the monthly trend, the average spot price of SMM #1 tin stood at 387,800 yuan/mt on June 30, compared with 425,000 yuan/mt on May 29—a drop of 37,200 yuan/mt, or 8.75%, in just over a month. Notably, as tin prices fell to around 380,000 yuan/mt, downstream restocking demand saw a phase of release. Fundamentals ►Production: Refined tin production edged up MoM in June According to SMM data based on market communication, China's refined tin production edged slightly higher MoM in June 2026, with overall output remaining relatively stable. The slight rise in June refined tin production was driven by two main factors. Supply side, raw material availability showed marginal improvement: earlier overseas tin ore import increases became more evident, and while production resumptions at Myanmar mines were slow, ore continued to flow out, somewhat easing tightness in domestic raw materials. On the other hand, rising arrivals of imported ore at ports drove smelting TCs higher, bringing a phase of relief to the prolonged raw material tightness and creating conditions for smelters to raise operating rates and boost output. However, subsequent production expansion faces multiple constraints: May to July is the traditional rainy season in Myanmar, which limits open-pit mining operations and ore transportation, leading to expectations of a MoM pullback in short-term imported ore arrivals. Overall, the refined tin supply-side is marginally loose at the current stage, but downstream industries are entering the traditional consumption off-season. With both supply and demand weakening, output is unlikely to see a significant surge in the short term. ► Imports: Tin ore imports rose both YoY and MoM in May, with imports from Myanmar surging 384.5% YoY. China's tin ore imports in May were 16,800 mt (equivalent to about 6,408 mt in metal content), up 7.07% MoM and 25.61% YoY, an increase of 1,221 mt in metal content from April (which was equivalent to about 5,187 mt in metal content). Cumulative imports from January to May were 85,900 mt, up 71.41% YoY. China's tin ingot imports in May were 1,838 mt, down 34.4% MoM and 11.46% YoY, with cumulative imports from January to April at 11,196 mt, up 17.75% YoY. Trade data for the tin industry chain from 2025 to May 2026 show the global tin market's supply-demand pattern is undergoing significant structural adjustment, characterized by accelerating supply recovery from overseas mines, easing domestic raw material supply pressure, and downstream smelting increasing supply due to lower raw material costs, while weak overseas demand hinders exports. On the raw material supply side, cumulative tin ore imports from January to May 2026 reached 85,998 mt, surging 71.41% YoY, with May imports alone at 16,831 mt, up 7.07% MoM and soaring 25.61% YoY. This strong rebound was mainly driven by the recovery of Myanmar ore, with tin ore imports from Myanmar reaching 6,634 mt in May, surging 384.5% YoY, and cumulative YoY growth from January to May soaring to 203.49%; in contrast, while tin ore imports from countries outside Myanmar maintained a cumulative positive growth of 34.72%, May single-month volumes still fell 15.23% YoY, indicating a relatively moderate supply recovery from non-Myanmar sources. ► Inventories: SMM weekly tin ingot social inventory across three regions declined for four consecutive weeks. China tin ingot social inventory: According to SMM statistics, as of July 4, 2026, total tin ingot social inventory across three regions in China stood at 7,299 mt, down sharply by 1,374 mt from 8,673 mt the previous week (June 26), a decline of 15.84% WoW. Looking at the trend, since hitting a near-term peak of 13,604 mt in early June, China's tin ingot social inventory has declined for four consecutive weeks, with cumulative destocking over the past month reaching as high as 46.4%. The destocking slope exhibited a "gradual then steep" pattern, and the current inventory level has pulled back to a year-to-date low, signaling marked marginal improvement in the market supply-demand pattern. By region, inventory in Shanghai dropped to 3,750 mt, a weekly decline of 996 mt, contributing 72.5% of the total weekly destocking and making it the dominant force in this round of destocking, reflecting accelerated trade flows in east China and a substantial rebound in downstream purchase willingness. Inventory in Guangdong also declined to 3,449 mt, down 378 mt WoW, accounting for 27.5% of total destocking, confirming that downstream rigid demand in south China, represented by solder enterprises, remained resilient and the pace of stockpiling accelerated. Analyzing the underlying logic, on the one hand, it was driven by restocking after price pullbacks. The dampening effect of previously high tin prices on downstream purchases gradually faded as prices returned to rational levels recently, and pent-up rigid orders were released in a concentrated manner, accelerating the digestion of visible inventory. LME tin inventory: On June 30, LME tin inventory data stood at 8,575 mt, compared to 8,850 mt on May 29, indicating that LME tin inventory declined in June. SMM Outlook On the macro front, a number of macro events in and outside China will continue to disturb tin price movements in July. Outside China, key focus will be on US CPI and PCE inflation data, as well as the US Fed's interest rate meeting at month-end. Earlier, Walsh said that inflation risks have receded, and coupled with the June non-farm payrolls data falling short of expectations, market bets on rate hikes have temporarily cooled. If subsequent inflation data rebounds again and the Fed releases a hawkish tone, a stronger US dollar will suppress tin price trends; conversely, if easing expectations continue, they will provide valuation support for tin prices. At the domestic level, the central bank increased liquidity injections, ultra-long-term special government bonds were steadily implemented, and stimulus policies related to technological transformation of high-end manufacturing and equipment renewal gradually took effect, which are positive for the consumption of tin downstream industries such as semiconductors, AI computing power, and new energy in the medium and long term. However, the weak pattern of the electronics industry during the off-season is hard to reverse quickly in the short term, and the pace of policy dividend releases regarding domestic demand will directly determine the intensity of downstream spot restocking. Fundamentals: On the supply side, the overall tight supply situation of tin ore remained unchanged, but marginal increase signals increased. Smelters maintained stable production with no large-scale production cuts for the time being. On the demand side, entering the traditional consumption off-season, downstream solder enterprises were generally cautious in procurement, and the market relied solely on rigid demand purchases, with high prices significantly dampening purchase willingness. On the inventory side, tin inventories both in and outside China maintained a destocking trend, providing inventory support for tin prices. In summary, changes in macro expectations combined with the performance of the technology sector will affect the fluctuation range of tin prices. Tight ore supply and low overall inventory formed strong fundamental bottom support, acting as a floor for tin prices. However, the sluggish demand during the current off-season will continue to drag on futures, limiting the upside room for tin prices. Looking ahead, it is crucial to closely track US Fed policy direction, the sentiment of the semiconductor industry chain, and continuously monitor the pace of destocking in and outside China. Only when there is a substantial recovery in demand can it provide new upward driving force for tin prices. Recommended reading:

[2026 Copper Plate/Sheet and Strip Semiannual Review and Outlook: H1 Operating Rate Hits a Five-Year High for the Same Period, Emerging Sectors Underpin Industry Resilience] In H1 2026, after experiencing wild swings in copper prices at the start of the year and the seasonal shutdown during the Chinese New Year, China's copper plate/sheet and strip industry entered a rapid recovery path from March onward, presenting an overall...

According to the latest report data from Omdia's "Semiconductor Application Field Market Forecast Tool (AMFT) – China Region, Q2 2026", China's semiconductor market size in 2026 is expected to see its YoY growth rate sharply revised up to 92.9%, reaching $812.08 billion. Compared with the version "AMFT Shipments: China – Q4 2025 Update" (where China's semiconductor market in 2026 was projected to grow by 31.26%, with market size reaching $546.5 billion), this represents an overall upward revision of $265.6 billion, an increase of 48.6%. According to Omdia's latest data for Q2 2026, China's semiconductor memory market in 2026 is expected to see its growth rate sharply revised up to 262.9%, reaching $449.6 billion.

Dinglong has filed an application for an H-share listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Alongside its semiconductor materials business, the company has continued to expand its presence in new energy materials. Earlier this year, Dinglong acquired a 70% stake in Shenzhen Haofei New Materials, a leading supplier of dispersants for lithium batteries used in electric vehicle and energy storage applications, further strengthening its lithium battery materials portfolio.

According to SMM, the comprehensive operating rate of the copper plate/sheet and strip industry in June 2026 stood at 74.97%, down 1.58 percentage points MoM but up 8.19 percentage points YoY. The actual operating performance for the month was 0.46 percentage point higher than earlier market expectations. Among them, the operating rate of large enterprises was 84.38%, that of medium-sized enterprises was 55.99%, and that of small enterprises was 70.72%.

[Copper Plate/Sheet and Strip: Emerging Track Supports Industry Resilience, June Stronger-than-Usual Off-Season Operating Rate Far Exceeding Same Period] According to SMM, in June 2026, the operating rate of the copper plate/sheet and strip industry was ......

[SMM Tin Morning Update: The most-traded SHFE tin contract remains consolidating at highs, while the spot market performance is relatively mediocre.]

July 5, 2026 As of July 3, 2026, by Florian Grummes Since the end of January, precious metal prices have been in a pronounced correction phase. Following the increasing downward momentum of the past four weeks—which culminated in an escalation and ultimately a clearly recognizable final capitulation—there are now growing signs that precious metal prices are regaining their footing and are on the verge of a major recovery. On the gold market , the break below the key support zone around $4,400 since early June led to an accelerated sell-off , which recently pushed prices down three times to the $3,940–$3,960 range. Apparently, as prices dipped just below $4,000, more buyers returned to the market, allowing the gold price to recover significantly—by as much as $250—over the past two trading days. Short Squeeze Following Price Plunge Silver exhibited an even more pronounced pattern characterized by high volatility : The surprisingly dynamic, yet unsustainable, price surge to $89.37 in the first half of May was followed by an even more severe sell-off. Within six weeks, the price fell sharply, dropping by 29.5% to $55.59. Unlike gold, however, the low of June 24 has not been breached in the past nine days, despite all efforts by the bears. Instead, the short squeeze in the silver market has so far led to a rebound of 13.1%. Early-summer bottom taking shape We have pointed out several times in recent weeks that the combination of capitulation by weak hands (high gold ETF sales), favorable seasonality starting in July, increasingly fearful sentiment, and a completely oversold technical market should bring about an early-summer bottom. Accordingly, the odds are now good that the gold price can recover toward its 50- and 200-day moving averages in the range around $4,500. For the silver price, levels around $70 would at least be conceivable. Market Correction and Further Shift Toward the East In any case, the five-month price decline in precious metals appears to have halted for the time being. While silver has more than halved in price since its high at the end of January, Western bullion banks used the period of weakness to systematically reduce risk in the futures markets: short positions were significantly reduced, and open positions were scaled back. However, the geopolitical cost of this development is considerable. China specifically capitalized on the low prices and accumulated large quantities of physical metal—several hundred metric tons of gold and an estimated up to 2,500 metric tons of silver. This market correction was accompanied by a decline in open interest to its lowest level in decades, as well as additional price losses in the wake of the recent COMEX collapse. The bottom line is that a structural shift is continuing: While the West is cleaning up its books, physical precious metals are increasingly finding their way into strong hands in the East. Summer Rally: Proceed with Caution Depending on how the anticipated summer rally unfolds and how the significantly overbought stock markets—which are vulnerable to a correction, particularly the parabolically rising semiconductor sector—behave in the meantime, even higher price targets for gold and silver are certainly conceivable by fall. For now, however, we do not want to get too far ahead of ourselves; instead, we intend to reassess the situation step by step and, when in doubt, would rather be pleasantly surprised. Silver in USD – Support around $55 has held Silver in U.S. dollars, daily chart as of July 3, 2026. © GOLD.DE Starting from the new all-time high of $121.67 on January 29, 2026, the silver price has so far fallen back in three distinct downward waves to its most recent low of $55.59. This has corrected nearly the entire upward move since the breakout above the $50 mark last fall. However, the broad range between $45 and $55—at the center of which lies the previous decades-long high of $50—should provide extremely robust support and has so far withstood its first stress test. Oversold and Ready for a Rebound Now that silver has returned to this range in a heavily oversold state, the chances of a significant rebound are very good. Ideally, the entire correction over the past five months can be interpreted as a falling wedge, which could set the stage for a strong upward breakout in the medium term. At the same time, the path upward is littered with significant resistance levels. A key factor in the coming weeks will be a push toward the prominent resistance zone around $70. This zone converges the slightly rising 200-day moving average ($69.83), the falling 50-day moving average ($71.32), and a dominant downtrend line. Patience Rather Than Momentum However, an initial bounce off the moving averages is very likely, and silver is likely to need considerably more time to build new, sustainable upward momentum. Recovery with Clear Price Targets In the short term, however, the signals pointing to an impending major recovery clearly predominate. The 38.2% retracement of the downtrend since mid-May, at around $68.50, can be viewed as a minimum target. If, following a temporary pullback, a breakout above the moving averages occurs, price targets in the range of $75 to $78 will come into focus. Overall, there are increasing signs that precious metals have formed a solid bottom following the turmoil of recent weeks and that the summer rally has already begun. Conclusion: Silver – Signs of a Summer Rally Are Emerging Recent price movements in the precious metals markets suggest that the five-month correction phase may have reached its preliminary low. In recent weeks, both gold and silver have exhibited the combination of oversold conditions, extreme sentiment, and capitulation signals that often marks the transition from a downtrend to a recovery phase. In particular, the strong short squeeze of the last two days suggests that in the coming weeks or over the next one to three months, buyers will regain control of price movements . Now that the breakout zone around $55 has held, the silver price has considerable potential for recovery given the overall sharp sell-off. Our first moderate price target for the summer rally is approximately $70. Depending on how the price develops, higher targets are also conceivable. However, the fragile situation surrounding the AI and data center boom, as well as the increasingly precarious outlook for the semiconductor sector, lead us to remain deliberately cautious. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/silver-and-gold-ahead-of-the-summer-rally-is-the-rally-about-to-begin