Futures: Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,960/mt. In early trading, prices briefly fluctuated upward, reaching a high of $1,974/mt before bulls’ upward momentum faded and prices fluctuated downward. During the European session, the downward fluctuation continued, with prices touching a low of $1,942/mt. Near the close, prices rebounded quickly and settled at $1,957.5/mt, recording a small bearish candlestick, down $5/mt or 0.25%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,135 yuan/mt. As bears entered the market, SHFE lead prices fluctuated downward from early to mid-session, touching a low of 16,000 yuan/mt. Near the close, prices rebounded slightly and settled at 16,040 yuan/mt, recording a small bearish candlestick, down 180 yuan/mt or 1.11%. On the macro front: Trump canceled planned strikes on Iran tonight; the US-Iran agreement has entered the final drafting stage and is expected to be signed in Europe this weekend. US media disclosed behind-the-scenes negotiations on the US-Iran deal: three major differences have narrowed under Qatar’s mediation. Iran’s Foreign Ministry stated that no final conclusion has been reached on the US-Iran agreement. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US would withdraw funds from Iran’s accounts to compensate Gulf states for losses if necessary. The European Central Bank raised its three key interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled. The CME Group plans to launch round-the-clock crude oil and gold futures contracts. The State Administration for Market Regulation, together with the Cyberspace Administration of China and the National Railway Administration, held talks with seven third-party platforms involved in train ticket sales. “Ten-billion-yuan subsidies” are not truly 10 billion yuan—Taobao, JD.com, Pinduoduo, Douyin, and Xiaohongshu were summoned for talks. Kweichow Moutai Chairman Chen Hua stated the company has no plan for a stock split. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead rebounded after stopping its decline, with suppliers selling at prevailing prices. Some quotes were at wider discounts than yesterday, and mainstream primary lead smelters offered ex-works at parity with the SMM #1 lead average price. For secondary lead, smelters’ selling sentiment improved relatively, but quotes remained scarce, with secondary refined lead offered at premiums of 0–25 yuan/mt over the SMM #1 lead price ex-works. Downstream enterprises mainly made just-in-time procurement, with some purchasing under long-term contracts or drawing on inventory; overall purchasing enthusiasm was moderate, and spot market transactions were sluggish. Inventories: As of June 11, LME lead inventories decreased by 575 mt to 306,650 mt. Total social inventories of SMM lead ingots across five regions increased by 700 mt to 65,400 mt. Lead price forecast for today: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are weakening overseas consumption and export expectations. LME lead inventories remain at multi-year highs, and overseas lead prices are under pressure, dragging down the Chinese market. The downstream sector is entering the off-season, with battery enterprises conducting mid-year account settlements and stock takes; procurement is expected to contract going forward, making it difficult for the demand side to support higher prices. Supply side, some secondary lead smelters plan to cut production due to losses, while some primary lead smelters are in maintenance, combined with expectations for production resumptions at some secondary lead smelters, bullish and bearish factors are intertwined on the supply side, and lead prices are expected to show a volatile pattern in the short term.

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Easing US-Iran Tensions, LME Zinc Center Moves Higher]: Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,464/mt. It initially moved sideways along the daily average, dipping to $3,442/mt during the session. Entering the night session, bulls added positions, and LME zinc rallied all the way to reach a high of $3,534/mt near the end. It finally settled up at $3,525.5/mt, up $57/mt, or 1.64%. Trading volume fell to 14,639 lots, and open interest increased by 4,214 lots to 238,000 lots.

[SMM Weekly Aluminum Price Review: Expectations for US Fed Rate Hikes Remain Contested, China Accelerates Destocking, Signaling Short-Term Stabilization]

[Aluminum Ingot Social Inventory Destocking Accelerates Significantly, Relative High Level Still Caps Aluminum Price Upside Room] On the fundamentals side, the supply gap outside China is expected to provide strong bottom support for aluminum prices, and expectations of rising energy costs also form a bullish driver. This Thursday, the destocking pace of China’s social inventory of aluminum ingots accelerated notably, effectively easing the earlier high inventory pressure. However, China’s high inventory pressure remains relatively prominent, which is expected to cap the upside room for domestic aluminum prices. In the short term, domestic aluminum prices are expected to mainly fluctuate and consolidate.

SMM Morning Brief: Overnight LME copper opened at $13,452/mt, fluctuated downward in early trading to a low of $13,395/mt, then its price center gradually moved up to reach $13,608.5/mt, before fluctuating downward again to finally close at $13,449/mt, a decline of 0.81%. Trading volume reached 24,800 lots, and open interest stood at 267,000 lots, an increase of 976 lots from the previous trading day, which was characterized by bears adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 103,500 yuan/mt, dipped in early trading to 103,480 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward to a high of 104,340 yuan/mt, after which the center of copper prices fluctuated downward, moved sideways near the session's end, and finally closed at 103,650 yuan/mt, a decline of 0.79%. Trading volume reached 39,700 lots, and open interest stood at 157,000 lots, a decrease of 3,255 lots from the previous trading day, which was characterized by bulls reducing positions.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Capital Bulls and Bears in High-Level Stalemate, LME Zinc Fluctuates]: Overnight LME zinc opened at $3,534/mt. Early in the session, it quickly rose to a high of $3,547.5/mt before bulls reduced positions, sending LME zinc sharply lower to a low of $3,513/mt during European trading. Afterwards, with bulls and bears locked in a tug-of-war, LME zinc fluctuated and eventually closed lower at $3,534.5/mt, down $6/mt, or 0.17%. Trading volume fell to 9,816 lots, and open interest decreased by 151 lots to 234,000 lots.

Futures: Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,991/mt, briefly surged to $1,992/mt (the highest price) in Asian trading before pulling back under pressure; during European trading, although there was a slight recovery, resistance was notable and it fluctuated downward again, touching a low of $1,987.5/mt, eventually closing at $1,988/mt, down $0.5/mt from the previous trading day, a decline of 0.03%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,300 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward under pressure, touching a low of 16,155 yuan/mt before rebounding slightly, moving sideways in the 16,170-16,205 yuan/mt range, and ultimately closing at 16,180 yuan/mt, recording a four-day losing streak, down 160 yuan/mt, a decline of 0.98%. On the macro front: Israel and Iran exchanged fire for the first time since April, and after Trump intervened, both countries announced a temporary halt to attacks. U.S. media: Trump warned Netanyahu that if he wages war with Iran again, he may find himself fighting alone. Iran's UN representative: hopes that the US-Iran negotiations will reach an agreement by the end of June. South Korean regulatory authorities will review speculative won trading. OpenAI disclosed it has secretly filed for an IPO. The CPC Committee of the National Financial Regulatory Administration held an enlarged meeting: to steadily promote the resolution of risks at local small and medium-sized financial institutions and deeply rectify disorderly competition in the financial sector. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead remained in the doldrums, suppliers sold as they saw fit, premiums and discounts quoted yesterday were stable compared to last Friday, and primary lead smelter self-picked-up cargoes were ample, with mainstream production area quotations at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. In the secondary lead market, smelters gradually lowered scrap battery purchase prices to ease losses, some smelters resumed shipments, and secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead, at the same level as primary lead prices. However, downstream enterprises had limited just-in-time procurement and mostly adopted a wait-and-see attitude, resulting in sluggish spot order transactions. Inventory: As of June 8, LME lead inventory decreased by 1,100 mt to 309,250 mt; SMM lead ingot social inventory across five locations totaled 64,700 mt, down 2,100 mt from June 1 and down 2,400 mt from June 4. Today's lead price forecast: Recently, operating rates at secondary lead smelters have rebounded, combined with primary lead enterprises resuming production after maintenance, leading to a continued increase in lead ingot supply. June production is expected to shift from decline to growth. However, the downstream lead-acid battery market is in its traditional off-season, with enterprises mainly making just-in-time procurement and consumption remaining sluggish. Additionally, as the delivery date approaches, invisible inventory is turning into visible inventory, further intensifying inventory buildup pressure. Cost side, amid weakening lead prices, secondary lead enterprises proactively lowered scrap battery purchasing prices, weakening support; however, scrap battery raw materials still had bottom support, and coupled with strong sentiment of holding back from selling at low prices among smelters amid widening losses in secondary lead, this still provided some floor to lead prices, limiting the room for deep price declines.

SMM June 8 News: On the metals market front: Overnight last Friday, base metals across domestic and overseas markets fell broadly. In the domestic market, SHFE tin led the decline with a drop of 5.27%, while LME tin fell 4.92%. LME copper dropped 2.78%. LME aluminum, LME zinc, and SHFE copper all fell over 1%, with LME aluminum down 1.84%, LME zinc down 1.52%, and SHFE copper down 1.84%. Declines for the remaining metals were all within 1%. The alumina main contract rose 0.65%, while the cast aluminum main contract fell 0.61%. Overnight last Friday, ferrous metals generally rose. Only stainless steel fell, with a decline of 0.14%, while the remaining metals all increased. HRC and rebar saw gains of around 0.4%, with HRC up 0.47% and rebar up 0.44%. For coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 1.73%, and coke rose 0.15%. In the precious metals market, overnight last Friday, COMEX gold fell 3.35%, recording a weekly decline of 5.21%. COMEX silver plunged 8.08%, with a weekly decline of 10.39%, marking its fourth consecutive weekly drop. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 2.93%, with a weekly decline of 0.66%. SHFE silver fell 7.43%, with a weekly decline of 3.72%. The US achieved another strong month of job growth in May, raising concerns about a potential interest rate hike later this year. As of 8:27 on June 6, the closing market data from overnight last Friday: Macro Front [Foreign Ministry Introduces Arrangements for General Secretary Xi Jinping’s Visit to North Korea] At the invitation of Kim Jong Un, State Affairs Commission Chairman of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and President of the People’s Republic of China, will pay a state visit to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea from June 8 to 9. Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning stated during a regular press conference on the 5th that this visit marks General Secretary Xi Jinping’s first state visit to North Korea in seven years. During the visit, the top leaders of the two Parties and two countries will exchange views on bilateral relations and issues of common concern. In recent years, under the strategic guidance of General Secretary Xi Jinping and General Secretary Kim Jong Un, the traditional friendly and cooperative relationship between China and the DPRK has maintained sustained, healthy, and stable development, bringing tangible benefits to both countries and their peoples. This year marks the 65th anniversary of the signing of the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance Between the People’s Republic of China and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. The two sides will take this visit as an opportunity to push for greater progress in China-DPRK relations that keeps pace with the times, enhance the well-being of both peoples, and make greater contributions to peace, stability, development, and prosperity in the region and the world. (Xinhua News Agency) Domestic front: On June 5, Premier Li Qiang presided over a State Council executive meeting. The meeting pointed out the need to further strengthen forward-looking layout and increase promotion efforts based on the characteristics of future industries, to firmly grasp the initiative in development. It is necessary to solidify the technological foundation, continuously increase investment in basic research, and systematically deploy breakthroughs in original and disruptive technologies. Ecological construction must be emphasized, promoting the deep integration of industry, academia, research, and application, encouraging close cooperation between upstream and downstream segments of the industry chain, and fostering more startups and unicorn enterprises in key tracks. [Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development Seeks Public Comments on the Regulations on the Administration of Housing Provident Fund (Revised Draft for Comments)] The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued a notice to solicit public comments on the Regulations on the Administration of Housing Provident Fund (Revised Draft for Comments). Under any of the following circumstances, an employee may withdraw the balance stored in their housing provident fund account: (1) Paying rent; (2) Purchasing, constructing, renovating, or overhauling a self-occupied dwelling; (3) Repaying the principal and interest of a housing purchase loan; (4) Decorating a self-occupied dwelling, up to a certain limit; (5) Paying property management fees for a self-occupied dwelling; (6) Retiring or leaving their post; (7) Completely losing the ability to work and terminating the labor (personnel) relationship with their employer; (8) Emigrating and settling abroad; (9) Other housing consumption circumstances approved by the State Council. (Wall Street CN) The Ministry of Transport and ten other departments issued the Three-Year Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of Small and Mini Passenger Vehicle Rental (2026–2028). The plan proposes accelerating the construction of electric vehicle charging facilities in expressway service areas, with 30,000 EV charging facilities (charging guns) of 60 kW power or above to be newly built or renovated in expressway service areas (including parking areas) by year-end 2028. The plan proposes accelerating the construction of electric vehicle charging facilities in expressway service areas, with 30,000 EV charging facilities (charging guns) of 60 kW power or above to be newly built or renovated in expressway service areas (including parking areas) by year-end 2028. US Dollar front: As of overnight closing last Friday, the US dollar index rose 0.62% to 100.07. Previously released data showed strong US employment data for May. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics disclosed that non-farm payrolls added 172,000 jobs in May. Employment data for the previous two months were revised upwards, and job gains over the last three months marked the best performance in more than two years. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, with labour market resilience significantly exceeding overall market forecasts. Nick Timiraos, the Fed mouthpiece, noted that the re-acceleration of spring hiring this year will provide more ammunition for Fed officials who worry about inflation and believe current interest rates are too low to contain a new round of price pressures. Some officials recently hinted that the Fed should be ready to raise interest rates later this year, at least clawing back some of the three 25-basis-point cuts implemented in H2 last year. Those cuts were implemented to stabilize the labour market, which now looks much healthier. This jobs report will not entirely settle the debate over how much the Fed should consider raising rates later this year, but it does further suggest the case for near-term cuts has largely evaporated. The stronger argument for raising rates now comes from the inflation outlook. Multiple overlapping shocks—from AI infrastructure build-out, tariffs, and energy—could keep inflation persistently above the Fed’s 2% target, even if progress is made in restoring commercial shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. If the Fed holds steady as inflation rises, inflation-adjusted real rates would fall. Even if the labour market is not the primary driver, this mechanism could become a key factor driving rate hike discussions. (Jin10 Data APP) Fed official Hammack stated that with the labour market appearing to be roughly balanced, a rate hike may be appropriate soon. Hammack said that while she never over-emphasizes any single data point, today’s employment report confirms again that the labour market appears to be mostly in balance. She noted the unemployment rate remains at 4.3%, which is basically consistent with what I define as maximum employment. “Given the uncertainty in the economic outlook, holding rates steady is appropriate for now. But if recent trends continue, action may soon be needed.” This essentially repeats remarks she made on June 2. (Jin10 Data APP) According to foreign media reports, May non-farm payrolls data far exceeded market expectations, and the US interest rate futures market significantly increased bets on a Fed rate hike at the December meeting. Based on data from LSEG, the rate futures market now prices in a 65% probability of a Fed rate hike in December, up from 48% before the jobs report. For the June meeting, the market still broadly expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged in the 3.50% to 3.75% range. The stronger-than-expected jobs data indicates the US labour market remains resilient, further weakening market expectations for near-term rate cuts while strengthening investor assessment that the Fed may need to resume rate hikes later to counter inflationary pressures. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME FedWatch: The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in June is 96.6% (compared to 96.4% before the non-farm payrolls release), with a 3.4% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through July is 90.6%, with a 6.2% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike and a 3.2% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut. (Jin10 Data APP) Macro front: This week, in China, data releases include the China May CPI year-over-year rate, China May PPI year-over-year rate, China May trade balance (TBD), and China May M2 money supply year-over-year rate (TBD), among others. In the US, data releases include the US May New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations, US May NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, US weekly change in ADP employment for the week ending May 23, US April trade balance, US May existing home sales annualized rate, US April wholesale sales month-over-month rate, US May unadjusted CPI year-over-year rate, US May seasonally adjusted CPI month-over-month rate, US May seasonally adjusted core CPI month-over-month rate, US May unadjusted core CPI year-over-year rate, US 10-year note auction yield for June 10, US 10-year note auction bid-to-cover ratio for June 10, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 6, US May PPI year-over-year rate, US May PPI month-over-month rate, US June preliminary one-year inflation expectations, and US June preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, among others. In Germany, data releases include the German April seasonally adjusted industrial output month-over-month rate, German April seasonally adjusted trade balance, and German May final CPI month-over-month rate, among others. In the Eurozone, data releases include the Eurozone June Sentix Investor Confidence Index, Eurozone ECB deposit facility rate for June 11, and Eurozone ECB main refinancing rate for June 11, among others. In the UK, data releases include the UK April three-month GDP month-over-month rate, UK April manufacturing output month-over-month rate, UK April seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, and UK April industrial output month-over-month rate, among others. Data including the Bank of Canada interest rate decision for June 10, French May final CPI month-over-month rate, Japan April trade balance, and Switzerland May Consumer Confidence Index will also be released. Furthermore, the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision, and BoC Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers will hold a monetary policy press conference. The European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision, and ECB President Lagarde will hold a monetary policy press conference. Crude Oil front: As of overnight closing last Friday, oil prices in both markets fell together, with WTI oil down 3% and Brent oil down 2.37%. However, both recorded weekly gains, with WTI oil up 3.31% weekly and Brent oil up 1.82% weekly. The decline in crude oil prices overnight last Friday was primarily due to reduced market perceptions of a renewed US-Iran conflict. US President Trump stated at a campaign event in Wisconsin on the 5th that the war with Iran would be ended quickly, thus removing a significant factor contributing to high prices. With the midterm elections approaching, US public opinion widely believes the US-Iran war has driven up oil prices and the cost of living, putting pressure on Republican election prospects. (CCTV) Fitch stated in a new report that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz created a logistical supply shock but did not alter the market trend. The agency expects a rapid recovery in regional production, strong supply growth from non-OPEC countries, and potentially more aggressive OPEC policies to re-trigger an oversupply situation in Q4 2026, pushing oil prices downward once the Strait reopens. Based on an assumption that the Strait of Hormuz reopens around month-end July (implying an effective closure period of five months), our baseline expectation is that Brent crude will average $87 per barrel in 2026. Significant uncertainty remains regarding the exact timing of the Strait's reopening, and the risks facing oil prices are binary. The current price increase reflects a transitory logistical supply shock rather than a permanent loss of production capacity. We expect the Strait to reopen around end-July and anticipate a significant decline in Brent prices from the highs seen between March and July. (Jin10 Data APP) According to a Bloomberg survey, OPEC crude oil production fell to its lowest level in decades in May, as the US blockade on Iran and turmoil in the Persian Gulf region continued to suppress output. OPEC oil production dropped by 1.22 million barrels per day in May (half of which came from Iran), falling to 16.33 million barrels per day, its lowest level in at least 37 years. This figure excludes the UAE, which withdrew from OPEC last month. The survey indicated Iran’s oil production plunged last month by 710,000 barrels per day to 2.34 million barrels per day, a five-year low. US Central Command continues to enforce a blockade on all maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports. (Jin10 Data APP) Notably, however, the UK government has raised its domestic crude oil price forecast, believing that even if the US and Iran reach a peace deal, crude oil prices could remain around $100 per barrel through 2028, as it now anticipates energy supply recovery in the Gulf region will take longer. A new analysis warns that pressure on energy prices is higher than previously expected, amid a deteriorating global economic outlook. The UK government previously estimated Persian Gulf supply could recover about six months after the end of the war, but it now believes recovery could take as long as 14 months. (Jin10 Data APP)

On June 2, 2026, Yang Dezhi, Party Secretary and Chairman of Meishan Xingmei Investment Group, led a delegation and headed to Pingshan headquarters for a field trip and exchange, and officially signed a strategic cooperation agreement with FinDreams Battery. FinDreams Battery Deputy General Manager Zhao Tong, BYD Energy Storage and New-Type Battery Division General Manager Yin Xueqin, and other leaders attended the event and witnessed the signing ceremony. In the future, both parties will accelerate the implementation of the agreement, deepening cooperation with a focus on the co-construction of heavy truck fast charging and energy replenishment networks, zero-carbon park construction, power battery support, and hard carbon anode resource development.

The UK Business Secretary is set to meet the EU Trade Commissioner in Brussels, raising concerns over the EU's plan to cut duty-free steel import quotas for non-EU countries by 47% from 2024 levels, effective July 1. The move threatens UK steel exports significantly. Meanwhile, the EU steel association has pushed back against the UK's own quota reductions, with products including hot-rolled coil, tinplate, and rebar at risk. Both sides are tightening steel trade protections in response to Chinese competition and global overcapacity, but the quota adjustments risk deepening bilateral trade friction.