[SMM Analysis: How is the Expected Production of Primary Lead in June Affected by Tightened Raw Material Supply and Overhauls?] SMM May 30 Report: In May 2025, the national production of primary lead showed a slight upward trend, increasing by 2.39 percentage points MoM and 14.66 percentage points YoY. The cumulative production of primary lead from January to May 2025 increased by 8.41 percentage points YoY.

This week, there has been no improvement in the replacement consumption of lead-acid batteries for e-bikes, cars, and other applications in the market. Dealers have been frequently conducting sales promotions, and the inventory of some dealers has declined compared to April. However, facing the June market, most dealers remain cautious and are only purchasing batteries as needed. On the producer side, lead-acid battery enterprises have maintained a state of producing based on sales. Due to relatively high finished product inventories, some enterprises plan to take holidays during the Dragon Boat Festival to reduce inventories. As a result, downstream enterprises showed poor enthusiasm for purchasing lead ingots before the festival. It was not until Friday, when the spot lead price fell below 16,500 yuan/mt, that a small number of enterprises made purchases as needed, and spot trades improved relatively.

[SMM Morning Lead Meeting Summary: Spot Order Market Transactions Turn Weak Again, Lead Price Trend May Still Be Trapped in a Range] Smelters are facing tight supply of raw materials, with lead concentrate prices showing an upward trend and scrap battery purchase prices remaining high. Refineries are under significant operational pressure, with some companies significantly lowering their scrap battery purchase quotes yesterday; although some recyclers are selling off their inventory due to fear of price drops, arrivals remain limited. Meanwhile, downstream lead-acid battery orders are poor, and purchase willingness for lead ingots is weak...

SMM Lead Weekly Review: Supply and Demand Both Increased in Spot Market, Lead Prices Consolidated at High Levels In the spot market, the SMM 1# lead average price first declined then rebounded this week (March 15-21, 2025), consolidating at high levels. Additionally, in the secondary refined lead market, regional differences were quite noticeable.

SMM reported on March 7: This week, there has been no significant change in end-use consumption in the lead-acid battery market, with dealers maintaining a just-in-time procurement state. However, the trading sentiment in the battery wholesale market has shifted. For instance, the e-bike and automotive battery markets, approaching the traditional off-season, are seeing strong expectations of promotional activities in the battery wholesale market, with some companies already notifying dealers of plans to lower prices for promotions. Recently, SHFE lead broke away from a prolonged period of range-bound fluctuations, driving spot lead prices higher. Rising raw material costs have shifted the market sentiment in the lead-acid battery sector. For example, the e-bike battery wholesale market has started to project a price hike atmosphere, while dealers mostly adopt a wait-and-see attitude. The selling price in the battery market has yet to show any actual changes.

[SMM Analysis: Lead Prices Fluctuate Downward, How Will Inventory Buildup Expectations Change Amid Weakening Pre-Holiday Consumption?] After Christmas, lead futures entered a downward fluctuation trend. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2502 contract hit a nearly one-month low of 16,305 yuan/mt before briefly bottoming out. Although primary lead supply decreased in some regions and secondary refined lead production in January recovered slowly, downstream consumption also weakened simultaneously. Some market traders expressed concerns about the expected inventory buildup of refined lead before and after the Chinese New Year holiday.

According to customs data, in August 2024, the export volume of refined lead was 181 mt, down 48.61% MoM and 97.94% YoY.

Last week (August 12-16), the most-traded SHFE lead 2409 contract weakened mid-week.

[SMM Analysis: Spot Lead Prices Fluctuate Weakly, with Inventory Accumulation in Primary Lead Smelters in Some Regions?] Last week (August 12-16), the main 2409 contract of Shanghai Lead weakened midweek, with strong wait-and-see sentiments in the spot market. The downstream market generally saw slight declines, and cautious purchasing led to overall subdued trading. Social inventories increased slightly, and at the same time, non-branded lead and secondary refined lead smelters in some regions also faced pressure from inventory accumulation. Some manufacturers expanded their discounts and sold off, resulting in significant regional differences...

Since June, tensions in domestic lead raw material supply have intensified, causing reductions in ingot production.