SMM News, March 26: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,909.5/mt. After the opening, prices fell rapidly, hitting a low of $1,899/mt. Entering the European session, LME lead fluctuated upward and touched a high of $1,920/mt. After repeated tug-of-war at high levels, it pulled back. Near the close, LME lead briefly consolidated at $1,908/mt and finally closed at $1,911.5/mt. It posted a small bullish candlestick, up $13/mt, or 0.68%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,505 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices fluctuated higher, touching a high of 16,570 yuan/mt. Thereafter, lead prices plunged rapidly after 22:30, gradually falling below the key support level of 16,505 yuan/mt. Near the close, prices fluctuated rangebound in the 16,490-16,505 yuan/mt range, hitting a low of 16,480 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 16,490 yuan/mt. It posted a small bearish candlestick, down 5 yuan/mt, or 0.03%. Supply side: Ex-works quotes from primary lead smelters remained stable, with mainstream producing areas quoting premiums of 30-120 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead price; secondary lead smelters held prices firm on shipments, and spot cargo in circulation tightened. Demand side: Downstream procurement sentiment diverged, with wait-and-see sentiment toward new-month long-term contracts coexisting with purchase as needed, while warrant cargoes were relatively more favored in transactions. SMM expects lead prices to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term, with downside supported by firm spot prices and limited room for decline; whether prices can break upward will require close tracking of downstream procurement and restocking pace.

SMM News on March 26: According to SMM, starting from March 26, Shandong Humon Smelting Co., Ltd. conducted a public tender sale of its high-purity tellurium head and tail materials. Specifically, according to official information, the quantity was 2,000 kg, the packaging was iron drums, the delivery method was self pick-up by the buyer, freight was borne by the buyer, and the buyer was required to pick up the goods before April 20, 2026. The delivery location was Shandong Humon Smelting Co., Ltd. (No. 11 Jinzheng Street, Shuidao Town, Muping District, Yantai, Shandong Province). Sales contact: Wang Peng Tel: 17616212861 At present, the official side did not provide a starting bid price for the tender; instead, the highest bidder would win. The buyer should fill in the quotation based on its own circumstances. If the buyer's quotation did not reach the seller's reserve price, the seller had the right to refuse the sale. To ensure timely quotations, please send back the inquiry sheet, a copy of the participating party's business license, and invoicing information (stamped with the official seal) to 17616212861@163.com before 11:30 a.m. on March 27, 2026, and contact Humon personnel in a timely manner for collection.

On March 25, the SMM average price of battery-grade nickel sulphate remained stable.

SMM News, March 25: In early trading, SHFE aluminum 2604 fluctuated downward, but was slightly higher than the previous trading day. Overall market buying sentiment was good, and sellers held prices firm as aluminum prices remained at relatively low levels. Later in the morning, SHFE aluminum 2604 fluctuated upward, with its center running higher than the previous trading day. Some sellers still did not quote prices, while some showed a notably stronger willingness to hold prices firm. Overall market buying sentiment was good. Today’s mainstream transaction prices were concentrated around the average price of the SHFE aluminum 04 contract to a premium of 10 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipment sentiment index was 2.64, up 0.01 WoW; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.42, up 0.02 WoW. Today, aluminum prices stopped falling and rebounded. Affected by the fear of further declines over the previous two days, traders and downstream processing enterprises in central China showed slightly improved buying sentiment today from the previous day, but overall transactions had not yet returned to a fully active state, and buyers tended to purchase at wider discounts. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market ranged from a discount of 20 yuan to a premium of 10 yuan against the central China price. Today, the central China market shipment sentiment index was 2.64, up 0.01 WoW; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.42, up 0.02 WoW. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption regions increased by 4,000 mt from the previous period today, with Guangdong being the main source of destocking. In the short term, aluminum ingot continued its post-Chinese New Year seasonal inventory buildup. Supported by bullish sentiment, premiums are expected to remain on a narrowing trend.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,895.5/mt. After the opening, prices quickly fell to $1,885.5/mt, then fluctuate rangebound within the $1,888–1,896.5/mt range, with a balanced tug-of-war between longs and shorts and cautious market sentiment. After 0:00, prices rose further, breaking above the previous trading range and touching a high of $1,901/mt, before finally closing at $1,898.5/mt. A small bullish candlestick was recorded, up $0/mt, or 0.0%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at a low of 16,420 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices rose rapidly, then saw wide swings within the 16,440–16,481 yuan/mt range, with an evident tug-of-war between longs and shorts. Intraday volatility narrowed, and prices gradually stabilized around 16,455–16,465 yuan/mt, while trading volume pulled back simultaneously and market sentiment turned cautious. Late in the session, SHFE lead broke upward again, touching a high of 16,500 yuan/mt, then quickly pulled back to finally close at 16,470 yuan/mt. A small bullish candlestick was recorded, up 50 yuan/mt, or 0.3%. On the macro front: 1. Poll: Trump’s approval rating fell to its lowest level since returning to the White House. 2. US media: The US Department of Justice admitted it lacked evidence in its investigation into Powell. 3. Turkey considered using its $135 billion gold reserves to defend the lira. 4. Israeli media: The US intended to seek a one-month ceasefire to discuss a 15-point agreement with Iran. 5. Goldman Sachs maintained its overweight recommendation on Chinese equities (A-shares and Hong Kong stocks). Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead remained in the doldrums, while suppliers held prices firm on shipments. Quotations in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai were raised slightly in spot premiums, while quotations for cargoes self-picked up from production site at primary lead plants changed little. Mainstream producing areas quoted premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead price, with a few quoting premiums of 100 yuan/mt ex-works. On the secondary lead side, some secondary lead enterprises had maintenance plans, and circulating cargoes in the spot market were limited. Secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of 0-75 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Downstream enterprises maintained purchasing as needed, but some engaged in more bargaining. In addition, as secondary lead prices inverted against primary lead, spot order purchases tilted toward primary lead. Inventory: As of March 24, LME lead inventory fell by 725 mt, or 0.26%, to 283,350 mt. As of March 23, SMM social inventory of lead ingot across five regions pulled back somewhat from previous inventory at high levels. Today’s Lead Price Forecast: Supply side, primary lead smelters held firm offers, and spot premiums in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai were raised slightly, while quotations for cargoes self-picked up from production site at primary lead smelters changed little. Some secondary lead smelters had maintenance plans, and circulating cargoes in the spot market were limited. Demand side, downstream enterprises maintained purchasing as needed, but some engaged in more bargaining, and as secondary lead prices inverted against primary lead, spot order procurement tilted toward primary lead. According to SMM analysis, SHFE lead prices were likely to remain in the doldrums in the short term.

Spot prices of #1 copper cathode in North China against the front-month contract were reported at a discount of 110 yuan/mt to a discount of 50 yuan/mt today, unchanged from the previous trading day, while the average transaction price rose 1,635 yuan/mt from the previous trading day to 95,595 yuan/mt.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary] Silicon Metal: Spot silicon metal prices remained in a stalemate consolidation. Yesterday, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was at 9,100-9,300 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon at 9,300-9,500 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous day. The quote center of some silicon enterprises was slightly lower than that of trading firms engaging in both spot and futures market, while downstream users mainly transacted at lower prices, and overall market trading activity was subdued. Polysilicon: N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 38-47 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices continued to decline somewhat recently, mainly affected by market sentiment and inventory clearance by some leading enterprises. At present, low-priced polysilicon has already fallen below the cost line of some manufacturers, and the sentiment to hold quotes firm has strengthened somewhat. The upstream market was also still watching wafer price movements.

[SMM Daily Brief Review of Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, with costs remaining high, most coke producers saw wider losses and began to push for a coke price hike, but losses remained within an acceptable range, and coke production stayed stable. On the demand side, steel trading improved somewhat, steel mills became more willing to produce, and daily average hot metal production continued to increase, further boosting rigid demand for coke. Overall, coke fundamentals shifted toward tightness, but steel mills showed only average acceptance of higher coke prices, and the coke market may remain generally stable with slight rise in the short term.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,016.5/mt. After dipping to $11,955.5/mt in early trading, its center rose sharply to a high of $12,160/mt, and then continued to hover at highs, finally closing at $12,092.5/mt, down 1.05%. Trading volume reached 23,000 lots, open interest stood at 293,000 lots, up 406 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting increased short positions overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 93,600 yuan/mt and touched a low of 93,480 yuan/mt at the open. Its center then moved higher to a high of 94,990 yuan/mt, after which copper prices maintained a fluctuating trend at highs, finally closing at 94,670 yuan/mt, up 0.17%. Trading volume reached 51,000 lots, open interest stood at 198,000 lots, down 533 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting reduced short positions throughout the day.

SMM, March 25: During the day, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,495 yuan/mt. After the opening, driven by broad gains across the nonferrous metals complex, prices quickly surged to an intraday high of 16,590 yuan/mt, then fluctuated lower, giving back part of the gains and moving slightly around the daily average line. Near the close, the SHFE lead price center edged higher, fluctuating rangebound within the 16,488-16,542 yuan/mt range, while the tug-of-war between longs and shorts eased. It finally closed at 16,495 yuan/mt. A small bullish candlestick was recorded, up 75 yuan/mt, or 0.46%. Primary lead suppliers held prices firm, and premiums in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai were raised slightly. Coupled with tight circulating supply caused by maintenance at some secondary lead enterprises, this supported lead prices. Downstream buyers mainly purchased as needed. As secondary lead prices inverted against primary lead prices, spot orders showed a stronger preference for primary lead. Overall, spot support remained strong, providing downside support for lead prices, but with more downstream bargaining and a lack of strong upward momentum, prices are expected to remain rangebound in the short term. Data source disclaimer: Except for public information, all other data is processed and derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.