[SMM Analysis: Looking back at H1 2026, the polysilicon market, due to prominent overcapacity issues compounded by historical inventory and other factors, although occasionally rebounding on the back of policy expectations, the overall downward "downtrend" persisted. Looking ahead to H2 2026, SMM believes that from the supply-demand or capacity side, it is difficult to see significant spontaneous improvement. Key focus areas are policy expectations and cost dynamics—cost determines the price floor, while policy determines the price trend.

This week, finished steel continued its gradual decline, while raw materials began to stabilize, with coking coal rebounding to some extent. During the week, rumors about a coal mine accident in Shanxi and customs clearance restrictions at the Mongolian border spread, boosting sentiment. Coupled with the China Mineral Resources talks, the raw materials side rebounded from lows. In the second half of the week, as rumors of maintenance at steel mills across various regions emerged, negative feedback expectations intensified somewhat, and raw materials pulled back. Approaching the weekend, however, the 10th round of coke price increases was initiated, pushing coking coal and coke futures higher. In the spot market, the off-season characteristics of end-users became increasingly evident, with the market restocking at low prices as needed. With spot prices remaining relatively firm, the spot-futures price spread continued to widen...

In June, global scrap tungsten markets diverged. India followed China's tungsten price rally, with active trading and higher prices in mid-June before cooling as China softened. Europe saw low-level consolidation due to high speculative inventories, but prices began to edge up in late June as stocks cleared. China's tungsten market experienced a sharp rebound followed by a pullback, and is expected to consolidate in the near term, while medium-to-long-term fundamentals remain solid.

SMM News Release, July 3 Domestic molybdenum market saw a trend of correction at the start of June, rally in mid-month and narrow high-level fluctuations at month-end, with mainstream products posting modest gains throughout the month.

In June, the sodium-ion battery industry chain showed strong momentum. End-use demand continued to be released upstream, driving high growth for both cathode materials and hard carbon anodes, further tightening the supply-demand balance. SMM data shows that sodium-ion battery cathode production rose 22% MoM and hard carbon anode production rose 17% MoM, while the pace of supply expansion still struggled to match demand growth, with a clear seller's market.

This week (June 26 – July 2), SMM data showed that the operating rate of copper wire and cable enterprises reached 71.8%, up 1.42 percentage points WoW and up 3.99 percentage points YoY. The previous pullback in copper prices prompted downstream buyers to lock in orders intensively; coupled with the concentrated production of outstanding orders, this drove the operating rate to rebound WoW this week. End-use demand side, as the market entered the traditional consumption off-season, downstream procurement sentiment was generally weak, with only the power and new energy sectors holding up relatively well. Inventory side, copper prices moved sideways at high levels, causing wire and cable enterprises' willingness to procure and stockpile to shrink substantially, with raw material inventories down 2.14% MoM. Meanwhile, sluggish end-user cargo pick-up during the off-season led to slow warehouse withdrawals of fixed-price orders, pushing finished product inventories up 2.57% MoM. Looking ahead to next week, continued strength in copper prices is expected to suppress order release, compounded by weakening seasonal demand. SMM expects the operating rate of copper wire and cable to decline 0.75 percentage points MoM to 71.05% next week (July 3 – July 9), down 0.47 percentage points YoY.

[SMM Copper Billet Flash] According to SMM data, this week, days of raw material inventories at sample copper billet enterprises stood at 3.82 days, pulling back slightly WoW. Raw material consumption continued, restocking willingness remained weak, and the tight supply situation did not ease; days of finished product inventories were 5.16 days, and the pressure of finished product backlogs persisted.

This week, SHFE copper spot premiums flipped from discounts to premiums, climbing steadily overall. Early in the week, the pressure to sell off cargo at month-end was largely released, and destocking of social inventories supported a narrowing of discounts, with suppliers showing a stronger willingness to hold prices firm. Entering July, a new monthly procurement cycle began, downstream restocking demand was released intensively, and buying and selling sentiment picked up markedly, shifting the spot market from discounts to premiums. From mid-week to the weekend, inventories continued to destock, with social inventories in Shanghai and Jiangsu regions posting significant weekly declines, pushing the center of spot premiums further upward. SMM data showed that on July 2, Shanghai social inventory recorded by SMM stood at 126,500 mt, down 7,700 mt from the previous Thursday; Jiangsu inventory stood at 36,200 mt, down 5,000 mt from the previous Thursday, both showing a destocking trend. Looking ahead to next week, SHFE spot premiums are expected to maintain a relatively strong pattern, but the upside room may be limited by high price pressure. On the supply side, inventories have been continuously destocking recently, with tight available spot cargoes, while suppliers remain firm in holding prices, making low-priced sources hard to find. The import window remained closed, limiting replenishment from overseas sources, and the short-term tight supply situation is unlikely to reverse quickly. On the demand side, the early-month procurement cycle is still ongoing, with downstream rigid demand continuing to be released, but after copper prices rose, buying sentiment pulled back somewhat, weakening the willingness to chase higher prices. Regarding the price spread structure, the inter-month Contango spread maintained a certain width, supporting suppliers’ willingness to hold positions for delivery, which provides support for spot premiums. Overall, under the combined effect of inventory destocking and suppliers holding prices firm, SHFE spot premiums against the 2607 contract are expected to remain at premiums next week, with the overall strong trend continuing. However, further upside room for premiums will depend on downstream’s actual acceptance of high prices and subsequent inventory changes.

[SMM Analysis: Sodium-ion Battery Market June Review (I): Cathode Undersupply and Anode Volume Release Resonate, Industry Chain Prosperity Continues to Rise] SMM, July 3: In June, the sodium-ion battery (hereinafter "sodium-ion battery") industry chain demonstrated strong momentum. Sustained release of end-use demand transmitted upstream, with both cathode materials and hard carbon anodes experiencing high growth, further intensifying the supply-demand tension. SMM data showed that sodium-ion battery cathode production rose 22% MoM and hard carbon anode production rose 17% MoM for the month, while the pace of supply-side capacity expansion still struggled to match demand growth, clearly indicating a seller's market...

[Weekly Review of Aluminum Scrap and Secondary Aluminum]Primary-Scrap Spread Narrows Sharply as ADC12-A00 Premium Hits a Record High: Has the Window Opened for Primary Aluminum to Replace Scrap?