DCE iron ore futures held up well today, with the most-traded contract I2609 closing at 786.5 yuan/mt, up 0.32% from the previous trading day. Spot prices rose in tandem by 1-3 yuan/mt. Traders quoted actively, steel mills restocked on demand, and overall spot trading sentiment was moderate. According to an SMM survey, daily average hot metal production at 242 sample steel mills was 2.4494 million mt this week, up 5,300 mt WoW. Looking ahead to next week, hot metal production is expected to dip slightly and move sideways after peaking. In addition, BHP announced the conclusion of annual benchmark negotiations last night. Although some details emerged in the market today, whether port spot cargoes of restricted grades will see short-term release remains to be confirmed. Overall, the impact of this event is gradually fading, with limited effect on prices. However, given that the month-end Politburo meeting may reinforce anti-involution policy expectations, and supported by rigid restocking demand ahead of the Labour Day holiday, iron ore prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend on the stronger side.

Customs data showed that China’s aluminum wire and cable exports totaled 53,280 mt in January-February 2026, up 37% YoY from January-February last year.

Dalian iron ore fluctuated upward today. The most-traded contract, I2605, finally closed at 819 yuan/mt, up 0.92% from the previous trading session. Spot prices rose by about 1-2 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were moderately active in offering quotations, while steel mills purchased cautiously. At present, transactions in the spot market remained sluggish. In terms of fundamental data, the SMM survey showed that global iron ore shipments reached 33.63 million mt last week, up 5.2% WoW; meanwhile, total iron ore arrivals at Chinese ports were 27.14 million mt, down 3.5% WoW. Combined with the narrower inventory buildup in port inventory in the previous period and the increase in port pick-up volume, the oversupplied situation on the iron ore supply side improved in the short term. At the same time, demand gradually rebounded as blast furnaces resumed production one after another, and iron ore fundamentals gradually turned bullish. On the news front, as long-term contract negotiations remained deadlocked, the unilateral trend in iron ore had yet to become clear, so most funds chose to stay on the sidelines, though overall bullish sentiment remained relatively strong. Therefore, overall, iron ore prices were expected to fluctuate at highs this week.

[SHFE Zinc Continued to Decline Today, with Focus on Overseas Rate Decisions and China Social Inventory] The most-traded SHFE zinc 2605 contract opened at 23,470 yuan/mt. After the opening, bulls and bears engaged in fierce competition, and SHFE zinc fluctuated rangebound below the daily average line. During the session, SHFE zinc touched a high of 23,475 yuan/mt and a low of 23,260 yuan/mt, and finally closed down at 23,345 yuan/mt, down 110 yuan/mt, or 0.47%. Trading volume increased to 55,115 lots, and open interest increased by 3,955 lots to 95,164 lots.....

Dalian iron ore fluctuated upward today, with the most-traded contract I2605 finally closing at 787.5 yuan/mt, up 0.90% from the previous trading session. Meanwhile, spot prices rose 2-3 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were moderately active in offering quotations, while steel mills made inquiries. Overall spot market transactions were sluggish. An SMM tracking survey showed that the operating rate of blast furnaces at 242 steel mills was 85.99% this week, while daily average hot metal production reached 2.3514 million mt, down 36,400 mt WoW. Multiple steel mills in Hebei underwent concentrated maintenance due to safety and environmental protection inspections, and the maintenance cycles were relatively short. Therefore, the decline in iron ore demand was more pronounced this week. Looking ahead, given that maintenance cycles for most blast furnaces were relatively short, the intensity of maintenance is expected to gradually ease in the later stage, and daily average hot metal production is expected to rebound quickly, with iron ore demand likely to improve next week. Overall, iron ore is likely to remain in the doldrums in the near term.

DCE iron ore futures fell before rising, stabilizing in the afternoon session. The most-traded contract I2605 finally closed at 784 yuan/mt, up 0.26% from the previous session. Meanwhile, spot prices fell 2–5 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders showed average enthusiasm in quoting prices, and steel mills’ purchases were mainly for rigid demand. Overall, the spot market saw scant transactions. According to SMM survey tracking, blast furnace maintenance intensity continued to increase this week, with the impacted volume up 102,100 mt WoW to 1.9892 million mt. Iron ore demand was currently at a relatively low level. As blast furnaces that underwent earlier maintenance resumed production in a concentrated manner, hot metal production was expected to rebound next week, and iron ore demand was likely to improve. On the macro front, the war in the Middle East remained in a stalemate. Surging crude oil prices pushed up the ocean freight rate and the cost of imported iron ore, providing cost support for ore prices. However, due to limited actual transactions, upward momentum showed signs of weakening. Therefore, in the short term, ore prices might mainly see sideways movement within a range.

DCE iron ore rose in an N-shaped pattern, and the most-traded contract I2605 finally closed at 784.5 yuan/mt, up 2.28% from the previous futures session. Meanwhile, the spot price rose by 5-15 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were moderately active in quoting, and steel mills’ procurement was mainly driven by rigid demand. Overall spot market transactions were average. This week, both iron ore supply and demand weakened. SMM’s total global iron ore shipments came in at 27.84 million mt, down 7.01 million mt MoM, a decline of 20.1%. Shipments from Australia and Brazil fell notably last week due to cyclones, while shipments from South Africa, India, and other countries also declined. China’s total iron ore arrivals were 23.07 million mt, down 1.21 million mt MoM, a decrease of about 5%. In addition, blast furnace production resumptions were progressing relatively slowly, leading to weak iron ore demand. However, given structural tightness in some iron ore resources and rising transportation costs, downside support for ore prices remained relatively solid. Therefore, iron ore prices were expected to fluctuate upward this week, mainly in both the overseas market and domestic market.

DCE iron ore held up well today and dropped back slightly before the close. The most-traded contract, I2605, finally closed at 772 yuan/mt, up 1.38% from the previous trading session. The spot price rose 10-15 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were moderately active in quoting, while steel mills made fewer inquiries. Spot trading sentiment was subdued. According to SMM statistics, total iron ore inventory at 35 major ports nationwide stood at 154.8 million mt, down 590,000 mt MoM, indicating a slight destocking trend. Over the same period, the daily average port pick-up volume rebounded to 2.55 million mt, up 145,000 mt MoM, suggesting a faster pace of port shipments. Demand improved slightly. The core logic supporting iron ore prices is gradually shifting from macro demand to structural contradictions on the supply side. Market concerns over structural shortages of certain mainstream mid- to high-grade ore types are fermenting, and these expectations have strengthened bullish sentiment, providing solid bottom support for prices. Looking ahead, the market is expected to see a tug-of-war between supply and demand in the short term. On the one hand, based on the production schedule, enforcement of blast furnace maintenance is expected to strengthen next week, which will create a phased restraint on immediate iron ore consumption. Against this backdrop of weaker demand, the aforementioned structural tightness on the supply side may be temporarily less apparent. However, once this round of concentrated maintenance ends and blast furnaces resume production as planned, iron ore demand is set to warm up in the short term. Driven by a rebound in demand, the structural shortage contradiction on the supply side will quickly stand out as the market’s main trading logic, and iron ore prices are expected to, overall, hold up well at that time.

Dalian iron ore futures were mainly rangebound today. The most-traded contract I2605 closed at 759 yuan/mt, up 1.27% from the previous trading session. The spot price rose 5–7 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were moderately active in quoting, steel mills remained cautious, and inquiries were limited. Overall spot trading was mediocre. Fundamentals saw no major changes at present, and today’s price increase was mainly driven by macro factors and news. On the news front, the market circulated that some popular iron ore grades were expected to face tightness in terms of supply, triggering buying that pushed iron ore prices higher. In addition, on the macro front, policy stimulus emerged, and optimistic market sentiment lifted iron ore prices. However, given that the market is still in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the demand side faces the risk of further weakening, market sentiment cannot support a sustained rise over the long term. Therefore, iron ore prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend after a round of gains.

DCE iron ore futures mostly fluctuated rangebound today, and the most-traded contract I2605 finally closed at 752 yuan/mt, up 0.04% from the previous trading session. The spot price fell 0-2 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were moderately active in quoting, while steel mills mainly purchased on rigid demand and generally stayed on the sidelines. Overall, the spot trading atmosphere was somewhat average. This week, the SMM survey showed that daily average hot metal production was 2.3878 million mt, down 5,900 mt MoM. The decline in hot metal was mainly due to environmental protection-driven production curbs. Next week, eight blast furnaces were expected to enter maintenance, so overall hot metal showed a downward trend. The reduction in hot metal production was expected to be a bearish factor for iron ore demand. Meanwhile, iron ore originally shipped to the Middle East might be redirected to China amid the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, potentially exacerbating supply-side looseness. Therefore, with strong supply and weak demand, resistance for iron ore remained evident. In the short term, iron ore prices were expected to maintain sideways movement or be biased to the downside.