Dalian iron ore futures rose in early trading today before slowly pulling back. The most-traded contract I2605 finally closed at 812 yuan/mt, down 0.49% from the previous trading session. Spot prices fell by about 2-5 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were mediocre in offering quotations, while steel mills restocked as needed; overall transactions in the spot market were limited. Fundamentals, according to the SMM survey, port inventories began to decline slightly this week, with total inventory across 35 ports nationwide down 610,000 mt WoW to 155.78 million mt, a decrease of 0.39%. Meanwhile, port pick-up volume increased by 110,000 mt WoW to 2.855 million mt. Although support below ore prices gradually strengthened along with the pace of hot metal production resumptions, supply side still faced the risk of further increases as weather-related disruptions eased and iron ore returning from the Middle East arrived in China. Overall, upward pressure on ore prices had not yet eased significantly, and with downside support gradually strengthening, prices were expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term.

Dalian iron ore rose in the morning session today and then slowly pulled back. The most-traded contract I2605 finally closed at 817 yuan/mt, up 0.18% from the previous trading session. Spot prices rose by about 5-8 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were moderately active in offering quotes, while steel mills maintained a steady procurement pace; overall spot market transactions were limited. Morning gains in futures were driven more by market rumors that core suppliers were about to cut production. According to this week’s SMM data, hot metal production steadily rebounded to 2.4049 million mt this week, up 15,000 mt WoW, indicating strong price support from the demand side. In terms of supply, IOCJ fines and PB lump continued to see relatively large destocking, while Newman fines and MAC fines inventories kept rising, indicating that structural tightness at ports still existed. However, due to elevated prices and mixed market news, with rumors surrounding long-term contract negotiations and production cuts remaining confusing, market risks intensified, and most funds chose to stay on the sidelines. Overall, iron ore prices were more likely to break upward, with relatively solid support at the bottom, and ore prices are expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term.

Dalian iron ore was generally weak today. The most-traded contract, I2605, finally closed at 806.5 yuan/mt, down 1.83% from the previous trading session. Spot prices fell by about 10-15 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders actively offered quotes, while steel mills mainly made inquiries and purchases based on rigid demand, with cautious inquiries; overall, the spot market trading atmosphere was average. According to the latest SMM survey data, hot metal daily average production reached 2.4049 million mt this week, an increase of 15,000 mt WoW, with demand showing a steady improvement. In terms of supply, some iron ore originally planned for shipment to the Middle East began to be redirected to the Chinese market, including some ore grades used for direct reduced iron (DRI), increasing market supply options and putting some pressure on prices. From a macro perspective, the situation in the Middle East remained tense, and the escalation of war triggered a sharp rise in energy prices, driving up global inflationary pressure. Expectations for US dollar interest rate cuts weakened significantly, leading to a certain pullback in commodity prices, including iron ore prices. Overall, iron ore prices faced strong resistance in the short term, but downside room was limited, and the market is expected to continue moving in a sideways range.

Dalian iron ore futures rose in early trading and pulled back in the afternoon. The most-traded contract, I2605, finally closed at 824 yuan/mt, up 0.55% from the previous trading session. Spot prices rose by about 2-5 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were relatively active in offering quotes, while steel mills made fewer inquiries and purchased cautiously, with overall transactions in the spot market remaining average. In terms of fundamental data, blast furnace maintenance intensity continued to pull back this week, with maintenance affecting hot metal production by 1.65 million mt, down 206,500 mt WoW. It was expected to decrease by a further 180,000 mt next week to 1.4684 million mt, indicating a gradual improvement on the demand side. In terms of supply, tight supply still persisted in the market, and there was no news of any significant adjustment, which remained supportive for iron ore in the short term. However, some funds, out of concern over downstream risks, tended to stay on the sidelines, and overall wait-and-see sentiment was strong. In summary, iron ore prices were expected to hover at highs in the short term.

Dalian iron ore futures remained in the doldrums today. The most-traded contract, I2605, finally closed at 807.5 yuan/mt, down 0.55% from the previous trading day. Spot prices saw limited transactions, falling by about 2-5 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders offered quotes in line with the market, while steel mills remained cautious and on the sidelines, with some purchasing as needed. According to the SMM survey, as of March 19, total inventory across the 10 ports tracked by SMM stood at 119.62 million mt, up 630,000 mt MoM. Inventory trends diverged among mainstream products, with notable destocking in IOCJ fines and Newman fines. Inventory of Jimblebar fines also declined slightly. In addition, inventory of PB fines and Mac fines increased slightly. In the short term, improved fundamental demand for iron ore provided support to futures prices. However, close attention should be paid to tomorrow's long-term contract negotiations and the impact of the Middle East conflict, both of which could have a significant effect on iron ore prices.

Iron ore futures fell first and then rebounded today. The most-traded I2605 contract finally closed at 809 yuan/mt, down 0.74% from the previous trading session. Meanwhile, the spot price fell by about 5 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were only moderately active in offering quotes, while steel mills made fewer inquiries, with purchases mainly driven by rigid demand. Overall, transactions in the spot market were relatively subdued. Last week, SMM's global iron ore shipments increased by 4.13 million mt WoW to 31.97 million mt, up 14.85%. Meanwhile, total port arrivals in China reached 28.13 million mt, up 5.06 million mt WoW, or 21.93%. The sharp surge in port arrivals further highlighted resistance on the fundamentals side. At the same time, the release of certain iron ore products from ports to some extent weighed on today's spot procurement demand. Together, these two factors curbed bullish sentiment in the iron ore market to a certain extent. Looking ahead, although the supply side was relatively loose this week, blast furnaces that had previously undergone maintenance are expected to resume production in a concentrated manner this week. Therefore, the market is expected to shift into a pattern of both strong supply and strong demand this week. Meanwhile, iron ore has again entered a structurally tight market, while the continued rise in freight rates has also provided cost support for iron ore. Overall, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at highs or hold up well in the short term.

Dalian iron ore futures gapped higher at the open today, stayed firm in the morning session, and were in the doldrums in the afternoon. The most-traded contract, I2605, finally closed at 811.5 yuan/mt, up 2.33% from the previous trading session. Meanwhile, spot prices rose by 5-10 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were average in offering activity, while steel mills restocked on demand, with limited inquiries. Overall transactions in the spot market were sluggish. The SMM survey showed that total iron ore inventory at 35 ports nationwide reached 155.41 million mt this week, an increase of 610,000 mt WoW, with the pace of inventory buildup improving somewhat. Meanwhile, daily average port pick-up volume reached 2.53 million mt, down 20,000 mt from the previous period. Looking ahead, the moderating pace of iron ore inventory buildup indicated that demand had begun to recover. At the same time, due to structural adjustments on the supply side, rigid demand for iron ore shifted in a concentrated manner toward certain varieties, causing localized supply deficits and thereby forming strong bottom support. Coupled with still-robust bullish sentiment, iron ore prices are expected to hold up well in the short term, as upside pressure has eased somewhat while downside support remains strong.

With no futures guidance today and some traders and steel mills on normal holidays, market inquiries were limited, resulting in a sluggish trading atmosphere. Spot prices edged down by 2–5 yuan/mt compared with the previous trading day. Next week, the Two Sessions are set to convene, and environmental protection-driven production restrictions will be imposed in North China, curbing the decline in hot metal production. However, given the weak procurement volume by steel mills this week, with most mills mainly consuming their in-factory inventory, purchase willingness for iron ore may improve next week. Supply side, a cyclone is expected to affect shipments from Australia next week, likely causing another drop in shipments and seasonal shipment momentum to weaken. Additionally, with the Two Sessions taking place next week, market expectations remain for favorable policies to be announced, which could improve market sentiment and lead to a slight rebound in iron ore futures prices. A modest rebound in iron ore is anticipated next week.

Today, iron ore futures first fell then rose, with the most-traded contract I2605 closing at 750.5 yuan/mt, up 0.27% from the previous trading session. Spot prices increased by 2-3 yuan/mt compared to the previous trading day. Traders showed moderate enthusiasm in offering prices, while steel mills' purchases were mainly for restocking needs, resulting in an overall moderate spot trading atmosphere. This week, SMM statistics showed that the total iron ore inventory at 35 main ports nationwide reached 155.39 million mt, an increase of 2.46 million mt compared to pre-Chinese New Year levels. Meanwhile, the daily average port pick-up volume was recorded at 2.405 million mt, down 180,000 mt from pre-holiday levels. This indicates that supply-side pressure has not eased and is expected to continue weighing on iron ore prices. Demand side, although steel mills gradually resumed production after the holiday, some regional mills have received voluntary emission reduction notices due to the upcoming macro window period of the "Two Sessions." The strengthening of expectations for environmental protection-driven production restrictions will substantially curb marginal increases in hot metal output. In summary, constrained by unresolved inventory pressure and policy-induced production restrictions, the iron ore market lacks effective upward momentum in the short term, and prices are expected to continue fluctuating rangebound or in the doldrums.

Today, iron ore futures were in the doldrums, with the most-traded contract I2605 ultimately settling at 748.5 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading session. Spot prices fell by 2-4 yuan/mt compared to the previous trading day. Traders showed moderate enthusiasm in offering prices, while steel mills had limited inquiries, resulting in a subdued spot trading atmosphere. The latest SMM data revealed that total inventories at ten key ports reached 118.87 million mt, up 1.80% WoW from the pre-holiday level. Overall supply remains relatively loose, with port inventories at high levels and the inventory buildup trend yet to show a clear turning point. On the demand side, daily average hot metal production continued to grow steadily, but given strong market expectations for environmental protection-driven production restrictions during the Two Sessions, iron ore's upside room is relatively limited. In summary, iron ore prices are currently more likely to fall than rise, and in the short term, prices may fluctuate rangebound.