HRC prices rose first and then fell this week. The most-traded contract closed at 3,215 yuan/mt in today's session, down 0.25% on the day. Spot HRC offers in major cities fluctuated 10-30 yuan/mt WoW from pre-holiday levels, with weak trading activity. Market news this week mainly revolved around production restrictions and Two Sessions expectations, but these failed to provide sustained upward momentum for market sentiment. After a short-term boost, HRC prices weakened again. Returning to HRC fundamentals, HRC production continued to recover this week. However, downstream purchasing enthusiasm did not fully resume after the holiday, and traders and clients had built up certain stockpiling inventories before the holiday, leading to overall weak domestic demand.

The latest data shows that the number of cities experiencing a MoM decline in housing prices increased in May, indicating that the market is once again showing signs of adjustment. According to the housing price data for 70 cities nationwide released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on June 16, in May 2025, the number of cities with a MoM increase in new home prices was 13, a decrease of 9 cities from the previous month; the number of cities with a decline was 53, an increase of 8 cities from the previous month. For second-hand home prices, 3 cities saw a MoM increase, a decrease of 2 cities from the previous month; 67 cities experienced a decline, an increase of 3 cities from the previous month. "Overall, policies aimed at promoting the stabilization of the real estate market have continued to show effectiveness, and the real estate market operated relatively smoothly in May. However, it should be noted that the real estate market is still in the process of adjustment, market confidence needs to be continuously restored, and the supply-demand relationship in the market still needs improvement. Continuous efforts are required to promote the stabilization of the real estate market," said Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the NBS and director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of National Economy, at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office. For new homes, the MoM decline in the new residential housing price index for 70 cities nationwide was 0.2% in May, slightly wider than the previous month. Specifically, in first-tier cities, the MoM new home sales price changed from flat in the previous month to a decline of 0.2% in May; in second-tier cities, the MoM sales price of new residential homes changed from flat in the previous month to a decline of 0.2%; in third-tier cities, the MoM sales price of new residential homes declined by 0.3%, with the decline widening by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Among the 13 cities with rising housing prices, the top 5 cities in terms of housing price index increases were Hangzhou, Shanghai, Nanning, Urumqi, and Shenyang. Among them, Hangzhou led the gains among the 70 cities with a 0.8% increase. Shanghai was the only first-tier city where new home prices rose against the trend, with an increase of 0.7%, second only to Hangzhou; the other three first-tier cities, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, saw housing prices pull back by 0.4%, 0.8%, and 0.4%, respectively. "The MoM increase in Shanghai's new home prices is attributed to the concentrated launch of high-end properties in the market, attracting significant attention from high-net-worth individuals, thereby boosting market enthusiasm and raising the overall average price of Shanghai's new home market. Hangzhou stood out among second-tier cities, with a heated land market driving up interest in property searches in surrounding areas and injecting strong confidence into the real estate market," said Zhang Bo, president of the 58 Anjuke Research Institute. Compared to the new home market, the second-hand home market faced more pronounced pressure. Data showed that the MoM decline in the price index for 70 cities was 0.5% in May. Among them, the MoM decline in the second-hand residential housing price index for first-tier cities was 0.7%, widening by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experiencing declines of 0.8%, 0.7%, 0.8%, and 0.5%, respectively. In second- and third-tier cities, the selling prices of second-hand residential properties both declined by 0.5% MoM, with the rate of decline expanding by 0.1 percentage points each. "It has become commonplace for second-hand housing to adopt a volume discount strategy. Compared to April, although the number of cities where second-hand housing prices have fallen has increased, it should also be noted that this has led to a rise in home-search enthusiasm and an increase in trading volume," said Zhang Bo. According to the 58 Anjuke Leading Index, the home-search enthusiasm diffusion index rose by 0.14 points MoM in May 2025, indicating a decrease in the number of cities with declining enthusiasm and an increase in the number of cities with rebounding enthusiasm. Analysts believe this serves as a key improvement signal for the market to begin experiencing a price and volume correction in June. Meanwhile, the diffusion index for the duration of listed properties decreased from 0.5 to 0.38, indicating that the duration of listed properties in most cities has shortened and the de-stocking speed has accelerated. In Zhang Bo's view, this change mainly stems from two aspects: firstly, the recovery in home-search demand has improved the matching efficiency between buyers and sellers; secondly, real estate agents are promoting price reductions for high-value properties to facilitate transactions. It is worth noting that the market expects more substantial policy support. The State Council Executive Meeting held on June 13 proposed to "drive the real estate market to stabilize and rebound with greater force." Industry insiders believe this sends a strong signal to the market to further stabilize the housing sector. The meeting pointed out the need to steadily and forcefully promote the construction of "quality housing," incorporate it into the urban renewal mechanism to strengthen work coordination, and provide policy support in areas such as planning, land, finance, and banking. It is necessary to conduct a comprehensive survey of the land already supplied and ongoing real estate projects nationwide, further optimize existing policies, enhance the systematic and effective implementation of policies, and adopt a multi-pronged approach to stabilize expectations, activate demand, optimize supply, and mitigate risks, thereby driving the real estate market to stabilize and rebound with greater force. "The statement at this State Council Executive Meeting about 'driving the real estate market to stabilize and rebound with greater force,' with stronger wording, implies that more targeted incremental measures may be on the way," said Chen Shen, an analyst at Huatai Securities. He further pointed out that the policy ideas of "conducting a comprehensive survey, optimizing, and adopting a multi-pronged approach" proposed at this State Council Executive Meeting are noteworthy. Among them, conducting a comprehensive survey of the land already supplied and ongoing projects nationwide aims to clarify key issues such as land idleness, providing data support for subsequently revitalizing stock resources through means such as acquisition and storage, and optimizing the rhythm of land supply. Secondly, promoting the construction of "quality housing" and incorporating it into the urban renewal system is a way to activate demand by optimizing supply. Meanwhile, exerting comprehensive efforts in areas such as planning, land, finance, and banking emphasizes enhancing the systematic and effective implementation of existing policies to boost market confidence. Yuan Hao, an analyst at Shenwan Hongyuan, also believes that although the total transaction volume of China's new and second-hand housing markets has remained relatively stable for nearly three years, the current volume and price have not yet fully entered a positive cycle. Therefore, it is expected that there is still a possibility of increasing policy support in the future. "The recent statement on halting the decline and stabilizing the real estate market has been adjusted from 'continuously consolidating' to 'greater efforts,' indicating that 'halting the decline and stabilizing' remains the main policy tone. It is expected that a new round of supportive policies may be introduced, which may include an interest rate cut on home loans, increasing the supply of high-quality housing, optimizing acquisition and storage, and advancing urban renewal projects," Yuan Hao said.

According to MiningWeekly, research and consulting firm Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (BMI) has maintained its iron ore price forecast for this year at $100/mt, as it expects falling demand to drive prices down. Although the easing of trade conflicts has provided some support for iron ore, BMI believes there is still a possibility of a decline in steel production, so the risks for iron ore have not diminished. On May 6, the price of 62% Fe iron ore at Qingdao Port was $94.70/mt, with an average price of $96.50/mt since the beginning of the year. Although iron ore prices remained relatively resilient at the start of 2025 and reached a high for the year of $102.90/mt on February 21, they remained below $100/mt in March and April. Despite a brief rebound in iron ore prices stimulated by supply disruptions caused by severe weather, the optimism did not last. The decline in growth rates of major global economies and the intensification of trade conflicts have shifted market sentiment. Falling steel production and a sluggish real estate market are the main factors contributing to the decline in iron ore prices, BMI said. Iron ore prices are susceptible to stimulus policies, and negotiations on trade agreements among major economies can help alleviate downward pressure on iron ore prices. According to data from the World Steel Association, global crude steel production fell by 0.4% YoY in Q1. India and Brazil saw increases in crude steel production of 6.8% and 2.8%, respectively, while China, a major consumer of iron ore, saw an increase of 0.6% in crude steel production. Supply From the supply side, BMI expects major iron ore producing regions to remain stable, which will put pressure on iron ore prices to rise. Production and exports from major iron ore miners are expected to grow or remain largely stable. Despite the impact of severe weather at the beginning of the year, miners still aim to maintain production levels. In particular, Vale's iron ore production in Q1 fell by 4.5% YoY, but the miner still maintained its production target for 2025 at 325-335 million mt, compared to 328 million mt in 2024. Although Rio Tinto's shipments in Q1 fell by 9% YoY, the company still maintained its full-year production forecast of 323-338 million mt. In contrast, BHP expects its iron ore production in the first nine months of FY2025 to increase by 1% to 193 million mt, with full-year production expected to be in the range of 255-265 million mt, compared to a record 260 million mt in FY2024. In the first nine months of FY2025, Fortescue's iron ore production increased slightly to 143 million mt, and the company expects full-year production to be in the range of 190-200 million mt, compared to 191 million mt in FY2024. Outlook In the long term, iron ore prices are expected to show a downward trend, projected to fall from $100/mt in 2025 to $78/mt in 2034. BMI stated that the contraction in steel production and the growth in iron ore production will lead to a sluggish market.

[5.12 Morning Meeting Minutes] Base metal prices generally rose on Monday as news emerged of substantive progress in trade negotiations between the US and China, alleviating concerns about a global recession to some extent. Another reason for the outstanding performance of nickel prices was the rumor that the Philippines planned to implement a ban on nickel ore exports starting next month, which could potentially lead to a shortage in nickel ore supply. However, SMM analysis suggests that the short-term impact on the nickel market may stem more from sentiment, and it may be difficult for this policy to have a fundamental impact on the nickel industry in the short term.

[SMM Stainless Steel Spot Daily Review: Slowdown in US-China Tariffs Strengthens SS Futures Market, Eases Market Pessimism, and Shifts Spot Costs] SMM reported on May 12 that today, high-level economic and trade talks between China and the US reached a consensus, with the US temporarily lifting the hefty tariffs imposed on China earlier. This development drove up the SS futures market. Stainless steel spot prices had already shown signs of rising, and with the positive news from the China-US negotiations and the increase in stainless steel mills' listed prices, spot quotes strengthened and rose. Market pessimism has somewhat dissipated. Coupled with the fact that stainless steel spot prices were already at a low level, market transactions improved today. In the futures market, the most-traded contract completed its rollover to the 2507 contract today. At 10:30 a.m., SS2506 was quoted at 12,870 yuan/mt, up 160 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In the Wuxi region, the spot premiums/discounts for 304/2B stainless steel ranged from 350-500 yuan/mt. In the spot market, cold-rolled 201/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan were quoted at 8,050 yuan/mt; cold-rolled trimmed 304/2B coils had an average price of 13,125 yuan/mt in Wuxi and 13,125 yuan/mt in Foshan; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils were priced at 23,850 yuan/mt in Wuxi and 23,850 yuan/mt in Foshan; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils were quoted at 23,050 yuan/mt in both regions; and cold-rolled 430/2B coils were priced at 7,500 yuan/mt in both Wuxi and Foshan. Currently, significant adjustments are being made to US-China tariff policies: 91% of the tariffs imposed earlier will be lifted, and among the 34% reciprocal tariffs, a 24% portion will have a 90-day suspension on additional tariffs, with only...

[SMM Analysis: Multi-Metal Plants Expand Production, Pr-Nd Production Increased MoM in February] In February 2025, domestic production of Pr-Nd oxide saw a significant increase compared to the previous month. This upward trend was also reflected in the production of Pr-Nd alloy, which experienced a substantial MoM increase as well. The main growth areas for Pr-Nd oxide were concentrated in Jiangxi, Sichuan, and Shandong, while the production growth of Pr-Nd alloy was more widely distributed across Jiangxi, Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, and Zhejiang.

Manganese ore stocks across Chinese ports totalled 6.5 million mt in February, a month-on-month drop of 1.66% but a year-on-year increase of 14.41%.