[Downstream Procurement Largely on As-Needed Basis, Spot Transactions Tepid During the Week]: Spot premiums in Shanghai ran at low levels this week, with the weekly average price up 10 yuan/mt WoW. As of this Friday, ordinary domestic brands were at a discount of 50-40 yuan/mt against the 2605 contract, while the premium brand Shuangyan was quoted at a premium of 40-60 yuan/mt against the 2605 contract.

[Futures Zinc Prices Fell Sharply, While Spot Premiums Strengthened During the Week]: Shanghai spot premiums strengthened this week, with the weekly average price up 20 yuan/mt WoW. As of this Friday, ordinary domestic brands were quoted at discounts of 30 yuan/mt to 20 yuan/mt against the 2604 contract, while the high-priced brand Shuangyan was quoted at a premium of 50 yuan/mt against the 2604 contract.

[SHFE/LME price ratio pulled back to fluctuate near 7.1] This week, the SHFE/LME zinc price ratio pulled back to fluctuate near 7.1, and the zinc ingot import window remained closed. Overseas, although strong non-farm payrolls prompted the market to scale back bets on US Fed interest rate cuts, US retail sales unexpectedly stalled in December, geopolitical risks persisted, and LME social inventory continued to draw down, providing price support. LME zinc consistently fluctuated at highs.

[Macro Sentiment Improves, SHFE Zinc Price Center Moves Higher]: The most-traded SHFE zinc 2508 contract opened at 21,660 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the session, bears reduced their positions, and SHFE zinc rapidly surged to an intraday high of 21,885 yuan/mt. It then consolidated near 21,845 yuan/mt, eventually closing up at 21,810 yuan/mt, up 135 yuan/mt or 0.62%. Trading volume decreased to 82,237 lots, while open interest fell by 6,441 lots to 97,600 lots.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Mixed Data Performance, LME Zinc Records a Bearish Candlestick] Overnight, LME zinc opened at $2,654.5/mt, and continuously declined below the daily average line in the early session...

[SHFE/LME zinc price ratio continues to oscillate around 8.4, zinc ingot import window remains closed]: This week, the SHFE/LME zinc price ratio has continued to oscillate around 8.4, with the zinc ingot import window remaining closed. Overseas, macro data indicates a cooling in both US employment and inflation, with expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts within the year strengthening. Tensions in the Middle East have escalated, exacerbating geopolitical risks, and the US tariff dispute has resurfaced, putting continuous downward pressure on LME zinc.

[Basic and Macro Factors Continuously Intertwined, Zinc Prices Maintained Fluctuating Trend This Week] At the beginning of the week, LME zinc prices rose slightly; subsequently, China's social inventory continued the upward trend from last week, reaching 81,700 mt. The increase in supply led to a decline in both SHFE and LME zinc prices. Then, as the market remained nervous about the progress and outcome of the second round of negotiations between China and the United States, LME zinc prices continued to decline slightly; subsequently, representatives from both China and the United States indicated that the negotiations had made some progress, and trade tensions continued to ease, leading to a continuous rise in LME zinc prices...

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Macro and Fundamentals in a Tug-of-War, SHFE Zinc Price Maintains Fluctuating Trend] Overnight, SHFE zinc recorded a small bullish candlestick, with the 5-day moving average acting as resistance above and the lower band of the Bollinger Bands providing support below. Progress was made in the China-U.S. trade negotiations...

[Inventory Continues to Accumulate, SHFE Zinc Falls Significantly]: The most-traded SHFE zinc 2507 contract opened at 22,220 yuan/mt. During the morning session, SHFE zinc fluctuated rangebound around the daily average line, reaching a high of 22,335 yuan/mt. Subsequently, in the afternoon session, SHFE zinc continued to decline, hitting a low of 21,855 yuan/mt near the close, and eventually closed down at 21,910 yuan/mt...

[Macro sentiment dominated by risk aversion, center of zinc prices on SHFE and LME moved upward] At the beginning of the week, LME zinc maintained the volatile trend of the previous week; subsequently, the "steel tariff" imposed by the Trump administration escalated global trade tensions, while the intensification of the Russia-Ukraine conflict earlier also led to a rapid rise in geopolitical risks, continuously strengthening market risk aversion and driving LME zinc prices higher; however, the subsequent conclusion of direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, as well as news of possible direct consultations between heads of major powers, weakened market risk aversion. Meanwhile, the US dollar index continued to strengthen, causing LME zinc to drop back slightly...