[SMM Tin Morning Flash: Tonight at 20:30, the US July CPI will set the tone for the September rate hike path, the SHFE tin 427,000 battle continues]

SMM News, August 11: Metal market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals mostly rose. SHFE copper rose 0.61%, and SHFE aluminum rose 0.81%. SHFE lead rose 0.86%. SHFE zinc rose 0.47%. SHFE tin fell 0.29%, and SHFE nickel fell 0.59%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures rose 0.38%, the most-traded alumina futures fell 0.78%, the most-traded lithium carbonate futures rose 0.36%, the most-traded silicon metal futures rose 0.76%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures rose 0.46%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore rose 1.47%, rebar edged up, hot-rolled coil fell 0.12%, and stainless steel fell 0.82%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 2.47%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.45%. As for overseas base metals, as of 11:40, LME metals mostly rose. LME copper rose 0.48%, LME aluminum, LME lead, and LME zinc rose within 0.2%. LME tin fell 0.12%, and LME nickel fell 0.32%. Precious metals: as of 11:40, COMEX gold rose 1.37%, and COMEX silver rose 1.12%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 1.88%, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures continued its rally for the fifth consecutive trading day, rising 3.08%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 0.59%, and the most-traded palladium futures rose 1.92%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping freight futures contract fell 6.11% to 1,536.5 points. As of 11:40 on August 11, midday futures market overview: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: In North China, spot #1 copper cathode prices against the front-month contract averaged a discount of 280 yuan/mt to 220 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 255 yuan/mt, narrowing by 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 108,300 yuan/mt, up 640 yuan/mt from the previous trading day... Macro Front Domestic: [The PBOC’s reverse repo operations resulted in a net withdrawal of 46.5 billion yuan] The PBOC did not conduct any reverse repo operations today, as 46.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 46.5 billion yuan. (Jin10 Data APP) [China Index Academy: Nationwide Foreclosed Housing Transactions Up Over 40% YoY in Jan-Jul] Data from the China Index Academy showed that 245,000 foreclosed residential properties were listed for auction nationwide from January to July, up 23.1% YoY; 89,000 units were sold, up 42.7% YoY; the clearance rate was 36.2%, up 4.97 percentage points from the previous year; total transaction value reached 96.975 billion yuan, up 21.04% YoY. From January to July, the average transaction price of foreclosed residential properties was 8,081 yuan per square meter, a YoY decrease of 9.1%. (Jin10 Data APP) In the dollar segment: As of 11:40, the US dollar index fell 0.03% to 99.78. Cleveland Fed President Hammack stated that inflation has yet to return to its target level, and the US Fed may need to implement multiple rate hikes. She said a single 25-basis-point hike “would not have much impact on the economy,” but she was reluctant to predict the specific number of hikes or the terminal rate level. Hammack believes the current 3.50%–3.75% rate range has not placed significant restraint on the economy, and enterprises have not scaled back growth investments due to high rates, so “now is the time to act.” She noted that the longer the wait, the harder it will be to bring inflation back to 2%. Hammack also emphasized that the labor market currently shows no clear issues, and July employment data will not shift her focus on inflation. She argued that markets can only assist the Fed, not substitute for Fed action. Hammack dissented at the Fed’s July meeting, preferring a 25-basis-point hike over keeping rates unchanged. According to CME FedWatch, for the September meeting, the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 48.8%, and a cumulative 25bp hike 51.2%. For October, the probabilities were 34.7% (no change), 50.5% (cumulative 25bp), and 14.7% (cumulative 50bp). (Jin10 Data APP) US President Trump said on Monday that he has had only one “brief” conversation with Fed Chairman Warsh since the latter took office, denying reports of frequent communications. White House National Economic Council Director Hassett said last week that the two “frequently discuss economic issues,” but other sources said the calls are irregular and not frequent. Previous reports indicated that Trump has communicated with Warsh multiple times since Warsh was confirmed as Fed Chairman in May, with Trump asking about Warsh’s economic outlook and views. Trump reiterated his desire for lower interest rates but said he “100% supports” Warsh and stressed that Fed policy is set jointly by the Board of Governors. (Jin10 Data APP) In other currencies: TD Securities expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep its interest rate unchanged at 4.35%, a baseline scenario broadly in line with market consensus and OIS pricing, which shows the probability of a hike today is near zero. This means the rate decision itself carries very limited risk of surprising the AUD or rates market. A more meaningful signal may come from the Monetary Policy Statement released alongside the rate decision. TD Securities expects that, despite the trimmed mean CPI data coming in weaker than expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia will resist sharply lowering its inflation forecasts, citing elevated oil prices as a persistent upside risk to the inflation outlook. The combination of "confirming a hold" and "cautious, rather than dovish, forecast revisions" implies that the market reaction will be relatively mild. Any surprise is more likely to come from the tone of the forecast language than from the rate decision itself. (Jin10 Data APP) According to Jiji Press, citing sources familiar with the matter, after raising rates in June, the Bank of Japan may consider raising rates again at its next policy meeting on September 17-18 to address rising inflation risks. Driven by the rapid growth in AI-related demand, a significant depreciation of the yen, and a rise in crude oil prices, prices in Japan may rise further. Previously, many financial market participants had expected the BOJ to raise rates roughly every six months. However, according to the summary of opinions from the meeting released on Monday, at the BOJ's latest policy meeting held on July 30-31, some policy board members had already indicated that the pace of rate hikes should be accelerated. One member said, "The pace of policy rate hikes may exceed market expectations," while another stated that the BOJ needed to "accelerate the pace of adjusting monetary easing." (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Today will see the release of China's July M2 money supply annual rate (TBD), the US July NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, the US weekly change in ADP employment for the week ending July 25, the US July existing home sales annualized rate, and the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate decision for the August 11 meeting, among other data. In addition, the RBA will publish its rate decision and monetary policy statement, and RBA Governor Bullock will hold a monetary policy press conference. Crude Oil: As of 11:40, both crude oil benchmarks edged up, with WTI up 0.07% and Brent up 0.06%. The renewed uncertainty over the US-Iran negotiations supported oil prices. Trump openly criticized the war reparations demand put forward by Iran during the negotiations, rapidly cooling the market's previously optimistic expectations for a quick deal and the reopening of strategic waterways. Wall Street Insights mentioned, citing CCTV, that US President Trump posted on social media on August 10 local time, saying that he had noticed Iran was demanding compensation for losses suffered in the military conflicts of the past five months. Trump said: "I similarly demand compensation from Iran, and I have instructed my representatives to explicitly include this demand in all future negotiations."On the same day, Iran continued to release signals of strengthening its security and political system. It is worth noting that last week, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) accelerated its decline again, falling to its lowest level since 1983 and approaching the widely recognized operational floor of 250 million barrels. If the current weekly drawdown rate persists, the SPR will exhaust its buffer capacity within weeks. (Wall Street Insights) Donald Trump extended the Jones Act waiver allowing foreign vessels to transport oil and other goods within the US by 90 days, but imposed new restrictions. Due to the US-Iran conflict disrupting crude oil flows and driving up fuel costs, Trump maintained the related waiver while narrowing its scope. The new waiver will focus on energy transportation, including gasoline, jet fuel, crude oil, naphtha, liquefied natural gas, soybean oil, and fertilizers. Going forward, before deciding whether to grant a waiver for an individual voyage, the Pentagon will need to consult with the US Maritime Administration. The White House stated that the waiver helps ensure continued access to critical resources for the US military and essential industries, and increases domestic transportation of products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. However, US shipbuilders and some members of Congress believe that the waiver undermines the Jones Act's protection of the domestic shipping industry. (Jinshi Data App) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[SMM Tin Midday Review: As supply and demand remain sluggish, SHFE tin continues to consolidate, and spot market transactions recover slightly.]

[SMM Tin Morning Brief: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Maintains Consolidation Pattern, Spot Market Trading Recovers]

SMM August 11: Metals market: Overnight, most base metals on both domestic and overseas markets rose, with only LME nickel, SHFE tin, and SHFE nickel falling; SHFE tin fell 0.46%, SHFE nickel fell 0.42%, and LME nickel fell 0.15%. LME aluminum, LME zinc, and LME tin all gained over 1%, with LME aluminum up 1.99%, LME zinc up 1.01%, and LME tin up 1.08%, while the rest of the metals rose within 1%. Alumina main contract fell 0.59%, and cast aluminum main contract rose 0.28%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly fell, with iron ore up 0.7%, stainless steel down 0.62%, and hot-rolled coil and rebar both down around 0.2%. In the coking coal and coke segment, coking coal rose 1.14% and coke fell 0.11%. Overnight, in precious metals, COMEX gold rose 1.11% and COMEX silver jumped 3.75%. On the domestic market, SHFE gold rose 0.66% and SHFE silver gained 1.89%. As of 6:43 AM, August 11, overnight closing prices: Macro Front Domestic: [National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): July CPI up 0.5% YoY, PPI up 3.5% YoY] NBS data showed: In July, affected by international imported factors, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.1% MoM and rose 0.5% YoY. Excluding food and energy prices, the core CPI rose 0.3% MoM and 0.9% YoY, with the overall CPI maintaining a mild increase. Domestic demand in some sectors increased, but affected by imported and seasonal factors, the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 0.7% MoM and rose 3.5% YoY, with the growth slowing by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. In July 2026, the national PPI rose 3.5% YoY, down 0.7% MoM. The purchasing price index of industrial producers rose 5.5% YoY, down 1.0% MoM. From January to July on average, the PPI rose 1.8% from a year earlier, and the purchasing price index of industrial producers rose 2.8%. NBS chief statistician Dong Lijuan interpreted the July CPI and PPI data. US Dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.21% to 99.81, and markets now look to Wednesday's July CPI report. Cleveland Fed President Hammack said inflation has yet to return to target and the Fed may need to raise rates multiple times. She said a single 25bp rate hike "would not have much impact on the economy," but she was reluctant to prejudge the exact number of hikes or the terminal rate. Hammack believed the current 3.50%-3.75% rate range had not exerted significant restraint on the economy, and firms were not yet cutting growth investment due to high rates, so "it's time to act." She said the longer they wait, the harder it will be to get inflation back to 2%. Hammack also stressed that the job market had no obvious issues and the July employment data would not change her focus on inflation. She argued that markets can only assist the Fed, not replace the Fed in taking action. At the Fed's July meeting, Hammack dissented against holding rates steady, preferring a 25bp hike. (Jin10 Data APP) According to the CME FedWatch Tool: The probability that the Fed will hold rates unchanged in September is 48.8%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 51.2%. For October, the probability of holding rates steady is 34.7%, that of a cumulative 25bp hike is 50.5%, and that of a cumulative 50bp hike is 14.7%. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Today will see the release of China's July M2 money supply YoY (TBD), the US July NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, the US ADP employment change for the week ended July 25, US July existing home sales annualized, and the Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision on August 11, among others. In addition, the RBA will release its rate decision and monetary policy statement, and RBA Governor Bullock will hold a monetary policy press conference. Crude Oil: Overnight, oil prices surged on both sides of the Atlantic, with WTI up 5.27% and Brent up 5.18%. In news, Iran's Foreign Ministry reiterated that the US naval blockade against Iran is an act of aggression against Iran. (Jin10 Data APP) The key backdrop to Monday's oil rally was shaken market expectations for a return to normal shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Reports said Iran claimed its agreement with Oman on a new shipping lane in the Strait of Hormuz had entered its final stage, but Iran also raised other conditions, leaving uncertainty over when normal commercial shipping would resume. Analysts said traders would not fully unwind the geopolitical risk premium priced into oil prices until they see "verifiable evidence" such as actual tanker transits or a formal deal. Reports pointed out that Iran had made demands including a US military withdrawal, sanctions relief, and war reparations for the reopening of Hormuz, leading the market to reassess the likelihood of a near-term return to normal shipping. This shifted the trading logic in the oil market. (Wall Street News) Additionally, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) hit a record low again last week, falling below 300 million barrels for the first time since 1983. Data from the US Department of Energy (DOE) showed that for the week ended August 7, the US SPR fell by about 6.1 million barrels to 298.3 million barrels, not only breaching the 300-million-barrel mark but also setting a new low since 1983, continuing to approach the record low around 270 million barrels set in April 1982. This drawdown occurred against the backdrop of continued SPR releases by the US in recent years. The US released large volumes from the SPR in 2022 amid energy supply concerns triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and inventories have since stayed near historical lows. Although refilling began in recent years, the pace has not been enough to reverse the previous massive drawdown. Therefore, the significance of the current inventory level lies not merely in the loss of a few million barrels, but in the shrinking policy buffer that US strategic oil reserves can provide against future supply shocks. (Wall Street News)

SMM, August 10: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals showed mixed performance. SHFE copper fell 0.52%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.15%, SHFE lead increased 0.41%, SHFE zinc dropped 1.68%, SHFE tin lost 1.34%, and SHFE nickel edged up 0.33%. Additionally, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures edged up, while the most-traded alumina futures edged down. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures rose 1.5%. The most-traded silicon metal futures gained 0.47%. The most-traded polysilicon futures fell 2.54%. Ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Iron ore slipped 0.7%, rebar lost 0.47%, and hot-rolled coil dipped 0.15%. Stainless steel advanced 0.48%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.75% and the most-traded coke contract added 0.43%. In the overseas base metals market, as of 11:43, LME metals broadly rose. LME copper gained 0.3%, LME aluminum climbed 0.69%, LME lead rose 0.29%, and LME zinc edged down 0.09%. LME tin was up 0.52% and LME nickel was down 0.21%. In precious metals, as of 11:43, COMEX gold fell 0.28% and COMEX silver rose 0.36%. In domestic precious metals: SHFE gold gained 1.5% and the most-traded SHFE silver futures rose 2.05%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 0.61% and the most-traded palladium futures fell 0.05%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping futures fell 2.8% to 1,634 points. As of 11:43 on August 10, selected futures’ midday quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at parity, down 60 yuan/mt; SX-EW copper was quoted at parity, down 60 yuan/mt. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 107,945 yuan/mt, down 410 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 107,835 yuan/mt, down 410 yuan/mt. In the spot market, Guangdong inventory edged up after the weekend, mainly due to increased arrivals of imported copper... Macro Front Domestic side: [NBS: July CPI up 0.5% YoY, PPI up 3.5% YoY] NBS data showed that in July, due to imported factors, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.1% MoM and rose 0.5% YoY. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.3% MoM and 0.9% YoY. Overall, CPI maintained a mild increase. China saw increased demand in some sectors, but affected by imported factors and seasonality, the producer price index (PPI) fell 0.7% MoM and rose 3.5% YoY, with the growth rate pulling back 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. In July 2026, China's producer price index rose 3.5% YoY and fell 0.7% MoM. The industrial producer purchase price index rose 5.5% YoY and fell 1.0% MoM. From January to July, the average producer price index rose 1.8% YoY, and the average producer purchase price index rose 2.8% YoY. Dong Lijuan, chief statistician at the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), commented on the CPI and PPI data for July 2026. [PBOC reverse repo operation resulted in a net withdrawal of 45 billion yuan on the day] The PBOC conducted 18 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations today, with 63 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 45 billion yuan on the day. (Jin10 Data App) US dollar: As of 11:43, the US dollar index rose 0.12% to 99.72. According to the CME "FedWatch": The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged by September is 55.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 44.4%. The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged by October is 40.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 47.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 11.8%. (Jin10 Data App) Economists surveyed by Reuters expect the US July headline CPI annual rate to fall to 3.4% from 3.5% in June; the core CPI annual rate is expected to fall to 2.5% from 2.6% in the previous month. Economists at Citigroup believe that, as expected, if there is a second consecutive month of softer inflation readings, it would mean more than one month of data pointing to cooling inflationary pressures, essentially ruling out a September rate hike. However, economists also expect a slight increase in core services inflation in July, with prices rising 0.3% MoM. Previously, the data was flat from May to June. Bank of America analysts said a rebound in core services indicators could still keep a September rate hike on the table. Analyst Kate Duguid said that if the latter view prevails and inflation data comes in below expectations, then the Fed rate hike could be postponed to December or later. (Jin10 Data App) The US CPI report released on Wednesday is undoubtedly the most watched data this week. Economists generally expected the annual inflation rate to slow slightly, but core inflation to likely stay high, reflecting persistent price pressures in the services and housing sectors. Based on the latest data, the US Fed remained cautious, emphasizing the need for further confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward its 2% target before considering interest rate cuts. (Jin10 Data App) Data: Data for the Eurozone's August Sentix Investor Confidence Index and China's July M2 money supply YoY have been released today. On the radar: The Bank of Japan released a summary of opinions from its July monetary policy meeting. Crude Oil: As of 11:43, oil prices rose in both benchmarks, with WTI up 0.67% and Brent up 0.91%. Stalled negotiations between Iran and the US over reopening the Strait of Hormuz supported oil prices. Weekend talks between Iran and Oman failed to reach an agreement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi explicitly stated that Tehran currently had no direct negotiations with the US. According to media reports, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until the US met six conditions, including ending military and aggressive actions against Iran and its allies, and providing compensation to Iran. The US insisted that any reopening arrangement must guarantee unimpeded freedom of navigation without conditions like Iranian approvals, fees, or controls. Citigroup noted that attacks by Yemen's Houthi forces on Saudi-affiliated vessels near the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait continued, keeping risks beyond Hormuz also high. (Wall Street CN) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Weak nonfarm payrolls spark a tug-of-war between recession fears and rate adjustment expectations; some capital exits, SHFE tin pulls back]

[SMM Tin Morning Brief: September Rate Hike Probability Plunges to 22% Low Inventory + Easing Trade Dual Drivers Revive]

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Hard Supply Gap Supports Floor Price, Macro Swings Dominate Short-Term Pace]

SMM, August 10: Metals market: Last Friday overnight, base metals across domestic and overseas markets generally fell, with only LME aluminum, LME lead, LME nickel, and SHFE nickel rising together. LME nickel led the gains with a 1.5% increase, SHFE nickel rose 0.52%, LME aluminum rose 0.09%, and LME lead rose 0.03%. LME zinc led the declines with a 1.9% drop, LME tin fell 1.67%, SHFE zinc fell 1.54%, and SHFE tin fell 1.51%. Other metals fell within 1%. The alumina main contract rose 0.04%, while the aluminum main contract fell 0.09%. Last Friday overnight, ferrous metals showed mixed performance: stainless steel rose 0.21%, rebar ended flat at 3,010 yuan/mt, and iron ore fell 0.56%. For coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 1.71% and coke rose 1.15%. Last Friday overnight, in precious metals, COMEX gold rose 2.37% overnight last Friday, reclaiming $4,400/oz, and surged 7.17% for the week; COMEX silver rose 3.56% overnight last Friday, up 10.41% for the week. On the domestic front, SHFE gold rose 1.53% and SHFE silver rose 1.66%. SHFE gold gained 5.03% for the week, while SHFE silver gained 9.43%. UBS Chief Investment Officer Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi and her team said: "The current gold rally has fundamental support. We expect gold prices to march toward $5,000 per ounce in H1 2027." Since the US and Israel launched a war on Iran in late February, gold prices briefly pulled back under pressure. UBS strategists said: Risks remain in the short term. If oil prices rise or the market prices in expectations of a more hawkish Fed monetary policy and increased bond appeal, gold prices will face pressure; however, the institution remains optimistic on gold's medium- and long-term outlook. Hoffmann-Burchardi said the team expects inflation to gradually ease, and the Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged this year and resume its rate-cutting cycle in 2027. "Growing expectations for lower policy rates are likely to suppress real yields and weigh on the dollar, thereby boosting investment demand for gold and creating a more favorable market environment for the metal." (Wall Street CN) As of 7:40 on August 8, last Friday's overnight closing quotes: Macro front Domestic: [Over 30 trillion yuan! China's goods trade imports and exports continued growth momentum in the first seven months of this year] The General Administration of Customs released data today showing that in the first seven months of this year, China's total goods trade import and export value reached 30.13 trillion yuan, up 17.3% YoY, continuing a solid growth trend. Of which, exports reached 17.44 trillion yuan, up 14%; imports reached 12.69 trillion yuan, up 22%. In July, imports and exports totaled 4.66 trillion yuan, up 19.2% YoY. Of this, exports reached 2.71 trillion yuan, up 17.8% YoY, and imports reached 1.95 trillion yuan, up 21.2% YoY. SMM compiled the import and export data for some metal industry products based on figures released by the General Administration of Customs, as follows: [H1 aluminum industry profit up about 115% YoY, aluminum semis and aluminum products exports up about 14% YoY] In H1 2026, the aluminum industry's profit rose about 115% YoY. While aluminum prices increased, raw material costs such as alumina pulled back. Some enterprises also further adopted green electricity like hydropower and expanded the use of new energy, making production greener and gaining cost advantages. Not only were domestic clients pressing for orders, but overseas clients were also placing more orders. In H1 this year, China exported a total of 5.62 million mt of aluminum semis and aluminum products, up about 14% YoY. More orders and busier production lines meant environmental protection facilities were running at full capacity. (CCTV Finance) [Beijing: Housing Provident Fund Maximum Loan Amount to Be Moderately Raised; Married Couples' First-Home Provident Fund Loan Can Be Up to 3.4 Million Yuan] On the evening of the 7th, the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the Beijing Municipal Commission of Planning and Natural Resources, and the Beijing Housing Provident Fund Management Center jointly issued the "Notice on Further Optimizing and Adjusting the City's Real Estate Policies." The notice mentioned that the maximum housing provident fund loan amount will be moderately raised. For a home-buying family with one provident fund contributor, the maximum loan amount for a first home is 1.2 million yuan, and for a second home it is 1 million yuan. For families where both spouses are contributors, the maximum loan amount for a first home is 2.4 million yuan, and for a second home it is 2 million yuan. For those meeting the following conditions, the maximum loan amount can be further increased: 1. For households registered in the six urban districts purchasing a first home outside those districts, the maximum can be raised by 200,000 yuan; 2. For home purchases that comply with the city's policies supporting green building development, the maximum can be raised by 400,000 yuan; 3. For Beijing-registered families with two or more children purchasing a home, it can be raised by 400,000 yuan. If multiple conditions are met, the maximum loan amount can be raised cumulatively: for a family with one contributor, the maximum increase is 600,000 yuan; for a family where both spouses are contributors, the maximum increase is 1 million yuan. The actual loan amount will be determined based on the family's repayment ability. (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar: As of last Friday’s overnight close, the US dollar index fell 0.35% to 99.6, down 0.18% for the week and recording a two-week losing streak. US nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, far below the market expectation of an 80,000 increase; data for May and June were revised down by a combined 103,000, and the labour force participation rate hit its lowest in over five years. The disappointing jobs data caused the probability of a September rate hike to plunge from 55% to 44%, the 10-year Treasury yield dived from 4.68% to 4.65%, and the US dollar index briefly fell below 99.5 intraday. ‘Fed whisperer’ Nick Timiraos: The July employment report will be a hard one for the Fed to interpret. There is no new evidence that the labour market is re-accelerating, which may partly weaken the case for a rate hike next month, though this still depends on whether inflation data can improve further. Officials held rates steady last week, but three of the 12 voting members voted for a hike. A falling unemployment rate will keep attention focused on inflation data. (Wallstreetcn) The latest New York Fed survey showed that Americans’ overall perceptions of the job market improved in July, while their inflation expectations also shifted. Consumers’ one-year-ahead inflation expectations edged down to 3.6% from 3.7%. Three-year and five-year-ahead inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.3% and 3%, respectively. The perceived probability of finding a new job among unemployed workers rose to 46.2%, the highest this year. The increase was most pronounced among those with a high school education or less and households with annual incomes below $50,000. Consumers became more optimistic about the stock market, with the expected probability that stock prices would rise in a year reaching the highest since April 2021 for this series. (Wallstreetcn) According to CME’s “FedWatch”: the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in September is 59.9%, with a 40.1% chance of a cumulative 25bp hike. For October, the probabilities are: rates unchanged (45.3%), a cumulative 25bp hike (44.9%), and a cumulative 50bp hike (9.8%). (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: This week, China will release the July M2 money supply y/y data, among others; the US will release the July NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, the weekly change in ADP employment for the week ended July 25, July existing home sales annualized, July CPI y/y not seasonally adjusted, July CPI m/m seasonally adjusted, July core CPI m/m seasonally adjusted, July core CPI y/y not seasonally adjusted, the high yield and bid-to-cover ratio for the 10-year Treasury auction on August 12, initial jobless claims for the week ended August 8, July PPI y/y and m/m, July retail sales m/m, the preliminary August one-year inflation expectations, June business inventories m/m, and the preliminary August University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index; the eurozone will release the August Sentix Investor Confidence Index, June industrial production m/m, the revised Q2 GDP y/y, final Q2 employment q/q seasonally adjusted, and the June seasonally adjusted trade balance; the UK will release the preliminary Q2 GDP y/y, June three-month GDP m/m, June manufacturing output m/m, June seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, and June industrial production m/m; data including France’s July final CPI m/m, Canada’s June wholesale sales m/m, Japan’s June trade balance, the Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision on August 11, and Germany’s July final CPI m/m will also be released. Additionally, the National Energy Administration releases nationwide electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month. The Bank of Japan releases the Summary of Opinions from its July monetary policy meeting. The Reserve Bank of Australia announces its interest rate decision and monetary policy statement. RBA Governor Bullock holds a monetary policy press conference. 2026 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Hammack delivers a speech. 2027 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks on the economic outlook. RBA Governor Bullock attends a hearing. Crude oil: Both crude oil benchmarks fell in overnight trading last Friday, with WTI down 0.27% and Brent down 0.13%. Weekly, WTI dropped 8.96% and Brent fell 6.31%. The market remains focused on negotiations between the US and Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Expectations of a US-Iran peace agreement have compressed the geopolitical risk premium. Goldman Sachs’ energy research team estimates Brent's fair value at $80 and maintains a consolidation range of $80-90. On August 7, US officials said that progress has been made between Oman and Iran on the Strait of Hormuz issue, and an agreement is expected soon. Once an agreement to restore unimpeded commercial shipping is announced, the US will lift the blockade on Iranian ports. US actions will continue to depend on actual performance and will be linked to Iran’s compliance with its commitments. Regarding the above, Iran and Oman have yet to respond. (CCTV) It was learned on August 7 that Hassan Kashkavi, spokesman for the Iranian parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, stated that Iran and Oman have clarified the overall framework of the memorandum of understanding on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, with the final text and specific details to be released soon. On August 6, Iran disclosed preliminary text details of the proposed Strait of Hormuz strategic management plan, which includes prohibiting hostile parties from transiting the strait, with violators to be fined up to 20% of the cargo value. Iran has repeatedly stressed in recent days that arrangements concerning the Strait of Hormuz should be decided solely by Iran and Oman, and will never accept any external intervention. Meanwhile, US President Trump said on the 6th that the US is participating in the negotiations on the Strait of Hormuz. (CCTV) This week, the EIA releases its Short-Term Energy Outlook, the IEA publishes its monthly oil market report, and OPEC issues its monthly oil market report (specific release times are to be confirmed, typically around 18-21 Beijing time). China's refined oil products will open a new round of price adjustment window.