Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,965/mt, fluctuating downward during the Asian session; it dipped to $1,948.5/mt upon entering the European session, but then rose due to a weakening US dollar index, touching a high of $1,976.5/mt before finally settling at $1,974.5/mt. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2603 contract opened at 16,665 yuan/mt, briefly touched a low of 16,560 yuan/mt early in the session, then rebounded as bears reduced positions, reaching a high of 16,680 yuan/mt before finally settling at 16,665 yuan/mt, up 0.48%, forming a doji star. On the macro front: As markets awaited a series of US economic data, a weaker US dollar made dollar-denominated commodities more attractive to overseas buyers; spot gold extended gains. The White House's Hassett predicted worsening employment: AI boosts productivity, reduces labor demand. Alphabet planned to raise about $15 billion by issuing US dollar bonds. China's Ministry of Commerce held a symposium with automakers: Multiple measures to promote the expansion and quality improvement of auto consumption. The Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges announced a package of measures to optimize refinancing. Seven departments including the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security provided administrative guidance on employment to leading platform companies and courier firms. Three departments including the Ministry of Finance issued an announcement on tax incentives for re-exported cross-border e-commerce goods. : SHFE lead stopped falling and stabilized, but as the Chinese New Year holiday approached, logistics vehicles halted in some regions, leading to reduced shipments and quotations from suppliers. Only some cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelters were quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. In the secondary lead sector, more smelters were on holiday and reluctant to sell at low prices, with most enterprises suspending quotations; a few secondary refined lead offers were at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. Downstream enterprises generally entered the year-end wrap-up phase, with minimal inquiries, resulting in thin trading in the spot market. Inventory: On February 9, LME lead inventory decreased by 100 mt to 232,750 mt. As of February 9, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions rose to a five-month high. Today's lead price forecast: With previously in-transit lead ingots by rail concentratedly arriving at warehouses, social inventory of lead ingots increased significantly, mainly reflected in Jiangsu and Zhejiang region warehouses. Last week, lead prices fell, prompting lead-acid battery enterprises to conduct relatively concentrated stockpiling of lead ingots, leading to a noticeable decline in lead smelters' in-factory inventory. This week being the last before the Chinese New Year, the final batch of lead-acid battery enterprises will enter the holiday state, further weakening lead consumption. Meanwhile, with the start of the Spring Festival travel season, migrant workers have returned to their hometowns, and the number of vehicles in operation has gradually decreased. Currently, some regions no longer support road transportation. It is expected that the growth momentum of social inventory for lead ingots will slow down, and the inventory buildup of lead ingots is anticipated to be more reflected in the smelters' plant inventories. Overall, lead prices are in the doldrums ahead of the holiday. Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Spot premiums/discounts are still expected to face downward pressure. As the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, market participation continues to decline, with most suppliers and downstream enterprises gradually entering the holiday period, resulting in sluggish overall trading activity during the day. On the supply side, price-ratio cargoes locked in during the previous period of open import arbitrage windows are continuously arriving at ports, leading to significant inventory buildup in the Shanghai area during the day. On the demand side, downstream enterprises have generally begun their holidays due to the approaching festival, causing procurement demand to weaken further. Overall, the market is expected to remain sluggish, and spot discounts are projected to widen further tomorrow.

SMM Feb. 12: SHFE aluminum 2602 fluctuated upward in the morning session, with the price center rising from the previous trading day. Affected by the approaching Chinese New Year, overall market trading sentiment was weak, with mainstream transaction prices concentrated at the average price to a premium of 10 yuan/mt. Today, the shipment sentiment index in the east China market was 2.21, down 0.08 WoW; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.33, up 0.04 WoW. SMM A00 aluminum closed at 23,350 yuan/mt, up 90 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, at a discount of 160 yuan/mt against the 2602 contract, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; at a discount of 220 yuan/mt against the 2603 contract. Trading in the central China market remained sluggish today. As the Chinese New Year approaches, pre-holiday stockpiling by downstream processing enterprises has basically ended, with only minimal just-in-time procurement. Major suppliers have also gradually entered the Chinese New Year break, leading to limited spot aluminum availability in the market. However, some traders bought the dip and stockpiled, driving transaction prices higher. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market ranged from a premium of 20 yuan/mt to a premium of 60 yuan/mt against the central China price. Today, the shipment sentiment index in the central China market was 2.43, down 0.14 WoW; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.09, down 0.05 WoW. SMM central China price closed at 23,260 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, at a discount of 250 yuan/mt against the 2602 contract, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; at a discount of 310 yuan/mt against the 2603 contract. The price spread between Henan and Shanghai was -90 yuan/mt, narrowing 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventories in major consumption areas increased by 28,500 mt WoW, with all three regions showing inventory buildup. In the short term, high aluminum prices may continue to suppress end-use demand, coupled with the impact of the Chinese New Year break on downstream sectors. Aluminum ingots still face inventory buildup risks, and spot premiums/discounts are expected to remain under pressure.

[Galvanising enterprises mostly on holiday, operating rates drop significantly]: This week, the operating rate of the galvanizing industry was 16.25%, down 22.35 percentage points WoW. From the raw material side, zinc prices mainly fluctuated this week, but most downstream enterprises were on holiday, with pricing being the main activity and fewer cargo pick-ups. However, large plants had basically received long-term contract goods by the beginning of the week, and zinc ingot inventories at galvanising enterprises increased slightly.

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2603 contract opened at 92,420 yuan/mt, hit an intraday high of 92,420 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, then fluctuated downward with its center touching a low of 90,440 yuan/mt. Copper prices later maintained a sideways fluctuating trend, finally closing at 90,840 yuan/mt, up 0.43%. Open interest fell to 3,481 lots, down 1,004 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume rose to 6,479 lots, up 3,066 lots from the previous trading day. On the macro front, US non-farm payrolls added 130,000 in January, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%, both figures beating expectations, cooling market expectations for interest rate cuts. US Fed officials struck a hawkish tone, favoring maintaining restrictive interest rates, while Trump continued to pressure the Fed. Armed attacks in Papua, Indonesia targeted a Freeport company convoy, resulting in 1 death and 2 injuries, raising safety risks at the mine. On the fundamentals side, supply side, due to earlier import arbitrage windows opening, locked price ratio cargoes continued to arrive, keeping supply loose. Demand side, as the holiday approaches, downstream enterprises have generally started holidays, leading to continuously weakening procurement demand. Inventory side, as of Thursday, February 12, SMM nationwide copper inventories in mainstream areas increased 5.3% WoW, with total inventories up 27,400 mt YoY. SHFE copper 2603 contract closed at 102,330 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2603 contract price of 90,840 yuan/mt, its post-tax price is 102,649 yuan/mt, resulting in a price spread of -319 between SHFE copper 2603 and BC copper. The spread remained inverted and narrowed compared to the previous day.

SMM February 12: Today, spot prices of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract were at a discount of 100 yuan/mt to a premium of 20 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 40 yuan/mt, an increase of 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 180 yuan/mt to a discount of 140 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 160 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 102,005 yuan/mt, rising 830 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 101,885 yuan/mt, up 780 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Inventory in Guangdong ended three consecutive days of increases and declined again, mainly due to increased shipments. As truck fleets also entered the holiday period, many downstream users made restocking purchases yesterday, but few continued to restock today. Moreover, suppliers, seeing no hope for transactions, did not further reduce prices but actively held prices firm, leading to a slight increase in premiums. Today, procurement sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong was 1.87, down 0.17 from the previous trading day, while shipment sentiment was 3.01, down 0.2 from the previous trading day (historical data can be queried in the database). As of 11:00, high-quality copper against the front-month contract was quoted at a premium of 20 yuan/mt, standard-quality copper at a discount of 100 yuan/mt, and SX-EW copper at a discount of 160 yuan/mt. Overall, downstream users basically completed restocking, but suppliers still held prices firm for shipments, resulting in sluggish overall trading.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Continues to Trade in a Narrow Range with Low Volume Before the Holiday, AI Sentiment Recovery Drives Prices to Hold Up Slightly Stronger]

Historically, domestic zinc concentrate production typically declines continuously from December to February each year. There are two main reasons: first, some mines undergo routine shutdowns in winter due to weather conditions; second, the Chinese New Year holiday falls early in the year, during which many mines suspend operations or conduct maintenance. As this year's Chinese New Year holiday approaches, how will these factors specifically affect domestic zinc concentrate supply？

[Price Review] Driven by CME’s seven consecutive emergency margin hikes on silver futures to 18%, a liquidity squeeze and exchange-mandated cooling measures together steered the overheated silver price back to earth. This week the silver market moved sideways after wild swings. On the SHFE side, the exchange released on Wednesday the “Automatic Conversion Standard for Hedging Position Quotas”; although the TD price on the SGE did not narrow versus the SHFE silver 2602 contract, the backwardation structure of the SHFE calendar spread kept converging and the risk of a speculative short squeeze declined. This week the SGE deferred-fee direction again stayed “short pays long”, and traders holding longs still found it hard to pick up physical metal through SGE delivery. As for the gold/silver ratio, silver’s plunge far outpaced gold’s, sending the ratio from the prior 47× low to near the 70 handle, a two-and-a-half-month high, showing silver’s volatility during deleveraging was markedly above gold’s. By 12 February, as silver rebounded, the ratio pulled back to roughly 60×; with short-term speculative money out, the ratio is expected to consolidate in a range. [Key Data] Bullish: US Dec retail sales m/m 0%, below both prior and expectations Bearish: US Jan unemployment 4.3%, below prior and expectations US Jan seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls 130,000, above prior and expectations US week to 6 Feb EIA crude inventory: 8.53 million barrels, above prior and expectations Data and macro headlines to watch next week include: This Friday the US will release the Jan non-farm payrolls and unemployment, but note the BLS has warned the report could be delayed due to the partial government shutdown. Several Fed officials will speak, including Atlanta Fed President Bostic on the economic outlook. [Price Forecast] Domestic markets entered a holiday lull this week. Overseas liquidity over the holiday left short-term speculative money cautious about re-entering silver, awaiting either the full deflation of price froth or the removal of margin-hike risk controls. Post-holiday silver is expected to search for a new equilibrium after the wild swings. A possibly soft US data set this week and lingering worries over Fed independence have weakened the US dollar index, briefly lifting precious metals. Although supply-demand fundamentals still lend medium- and long-term support, sentiment-driven spikes and the ever-present threat of rapid pullbacks keep silver in a high-risk, high-volatility environment. Overall, post-holiday silver is likely to hover at highs; stay alert to liquidity risk amid elevated volatility. 》Check SMM precious-metals spot quotes

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: LME copper opened at $13,357/mt overnight, fluctuated upward initially and touched a high of $13,480/mt, then the center of copper prices gradually moved downward to a low of $13,115/mt, before rebounding to close at $13,239/mt, up 1.06%, with trading volume reaching 26,500 lots and open interest at 326,000 lots, an increase of 893 lots from the previous session, overall showing bulls increasing positions. The most-traded SHFE copper contract 2603 opened at 103,620 yuan/mt overnight, climbed to 103,730 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, then experienced wide swings and touched a low of 101,840 yuan/mt, before fluctuating upward to close at 102,190 yuan/mt, up 0.26%, with trading volume at 69,800 lots and open interest at 152,000 lots, a decrease of 6,478 lots from the previous session, overall showing bears reducing positions.