SMM, March 18: The most-traded SHFE lead 2604 contract opened at 16,695 yuan/mt during the day, with prices fluctuating rangebound in the 16,665–16,720 yuan/mt range in early trading. Before noon, SHFE lead prices rose rapidly and touched a high of 16,785 yuan/mt before pulling back amid fluctuations. The tug-of-war between longs and shorts intensified, and prices remained rangebound within 16,610–16,680 yuan/mt before closing at 16,645 yuan/mt, posting a small bullish candlestick, up 45 yuan/mt, or 0.27%. At present, lead prices have stopped falling and rebounded, gradually returning to being driven by fundamentals. On the supply side, ex-works inventory at primary lead smelters continued to be digested, and some suppliers held prices firm in spot lead shipments, providing relatively strong spot support; willingness to sell among secondary lead suppliers diverged, and most enterprises became more reluctant to sell due to losses combined with bullish expectations, leading to a continued contraction in effective market supply. On the demand side, orders from downstream battery plants increased, and production remained at full capacity, providing positive support for lead prices. However, social inventory of lead ingot is still on an upward trend. In addition, as more smelters resume production in mid-to-late March and capacity is gradually released, market circulation will further increase, and lead prices are expected to have limited upward momentum. Data source statement: Except for public information, all other data is processed and derived by SMM for reference only based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM News, March 18: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,922.5/mt. In early trading, LME lead fell rapidly to a low of $1,913/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead fluctuated upward, reaching a high of $1,932/mt, after which bears regained control and SHFE lead turned downward. Entering the European session, LME lead dropped sharply before beginning to rebound in fluctuations, with prices posting wide swings in the $1,921-1,931/mt range. It finally closed at $1,926/mt, up $1/mt, or 0.05%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2604 contract opened at 16,635 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead edged up to a high of 16,685 yuan/mt, then came under pressure and pulled back to a low of 16,595 yuan/mt. SHFE lead showed a sideways movement overall during the night session, with prices posting wide swings in the 16,620-16,685 yuan/mt range from intraday to the close, and finally closing at 16,670 yuan/mt. It recorded a small bullish candlestick, up 70 yuan/mt, or 0.42%. At present, inventory at primary lead smelters continued to decline, while suppliers held firm on quotes and showed a clear reluctance to sell. Losses at secondary lead enterprises widened, and most producers adopted a wait-and-see attitude and were reluctant to sell, leading to some tightening in overall effective market supply. After restocking at low levels, downstream battery plants slowed their procurement pace, and downstream demand remained weak. The overall pattern of weak supply and weak demand persisted. Lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term. Subsequent price moves require close attention to geopolitical factors, changes in operating rates at secondary lead enterprises in mid-to-late March, and actual downstream procurement conditions.

SMM, March 18: The SHFE aluminum 04 contract moved lower today. Affected by the decline in aluminum prices, overall purchase sentiment rose today. Sellers held prices firm, with mainstream quotations and transaction prices in the market mostly ranging from the average price to +10 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipment sentiment index was 3.17, up 0.05 MoM; the buying sentiment index was 3.03, up 0.33 MoM. Today, SHFE aluminum futures prices pulled back, and buying sentiment in the central China market surged. Bullish sentiment in the market was strong, and willingness to buy the dip was significant. Meanwhile, suppliers tended to hold back from selling and turned to purchasing at lower prices to profit from the price spread. Only some trading firms engaging in both spot and futures market took profits on premiums and shipped goods, while the overall reluctance to sell was evident. Market quotations ranged from parity with the central China price to a premium of 60 yuan, but final actual transactions were mainly concentrated at premiums of 30-40 yuan over the central China price. Today, the central China market shipment sentiment index was 2.59, down 0.01 MoM; the buying sentiment index was 2.42, up 0.04 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption regions increased 8,500 mt MoM today, with the inventory buildup mainly coming from Guangdong. In the short term, aluminum ingot inventory continued its seasonal buildup after the Chinese New Year. Affected by bullish market sentiment, premiums were expected to remain on a narrowing trend.

[SHFE Zinc Continued to Decline Today, with Focus on Overseas Rate Decisions and China Social Inventory] The most-traded SHFE zinc 2605 contract opened at 23,470 yuan/mt. After the opening, bulls and bears engaged in fierce competition, and SHFE zinc fluctuated rangebound below the daily average line. During the session, SHFE zinc touched a high of 23,475 yuan/mt and a low of 23,260 yuan/mt, and finally closed down at 23,345 yuan/mt, down 110 yuan/mt, or 0.47%. Trading volume increased to 55,115 lots, and open interest increased by 3,955 lots to 95,164 lots.....

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2604 contract opened at 87,780 yuan/mt. After the opening, it hovered at highs and then touched a high of 87,890 yuan/mt. By the close of the morning trading session, its center had fallen to 84,000, after which it returned to its normal trading range. It finally consolidated sideways to close at 87,050 yuan/mt, down 1.62. Open interest stood at 5,432 lots, down 167 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume reached 5,024 lots, up 1,566 lots from the previous trading day. On the macro front, Trump said he was not yet ready to end the conflict immediately, but said he would withdraw before long; Iran’s supreme leader firmly rejected the proposal for peace talks, insisting on retaliation and compensation. Meanwhile, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and the head of the Basij militia were confirmed dead, and Iran was urgently filling candidates for key positions. Amid the combined impact of escalating geopolitical tensions and demand concerns triggered by elevated LME inventory, copper prices were overall under pressure and bearish. Fundamentals side, arrivals of both imported and domestic cargo remained stable, and overall supply was ample. Demand side, downstream purchase willingness rebounded as copper prices pulled back. The SHFE copper 2604 contract closed at 98,590 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2604 contract at 87,050 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 98,367 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2604 contract and BC copper was 223 yuan/mt, and the spread remained in contango structure, widening from the previous day.

[SMM Tin Midday Commentary: Under Macro Pressure, SHFE Tin Contracts Fell to 366,000, and Trading in the Spot Market Was Relatively Active]

[SMM Tin Commentary: The SHFE Tin Contract Consolidated Near the 370,000 Level, with Market Sentiment Remaining Predominantly Cautious Ahead of the Interest Rate Cut Decision]

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: LME Inventory Increased by 20kt, LME Zinc Came Under Pressure] Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,277/mt. In early trading, LME zinc briefly rose to a high of $3,293/mt before bulls reduced open interest, sending LME zinc fluctuating downward throughout the session and touching a low of $3,210/mt during the night session. The center then rebounded slightly, and it finally closed down at $3,233/mt, down $46/mt, a decrease of 1.4%, with trading volume increasing to 13,404 lots and open interest falling by 3,868 lots to 214,000 lots.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,905/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead consolidated around the daily average line. Entering the European session, LME lead dipped slightly to $1,883/mt, then fluctuated upward. Around midnight, after moving sideways, LME lead futures were dominated by bulls, with the center gradually moving higher to a peak of $1,926/mt, and finally closed at $1,925/mt, up $22/mt, or 1.16%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened higher with a gap at 16,450 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices plunged rapidly, hitting a low of 16,320 yuan/mt before a slight correction. Thereafter, bulls and bears competed, and SHFE lead prices saw wide swings within the 16,355-16,405 yuan/mt range. At the end of the night session, SHFE lead prices fluctuated upward, but due to strong bearish momentum, turned to fluctuate downward and closed at the low of 16,405 yuan/mt. It posted a long upper-shadow bearish candle, up 90 yuan/mt, or 0.55%. On the macro front: 1. Trump: Once the Iran war ends, oil prices will fall rapidly like a rock. 2. Iran's foreign minister denied recent contact with the US special envoy, saying such reports appeared to be only intended to mislead oil traders. 3. Foreign media: The Saudi crown prince suggested Trump continue striking Iran. 4. US Treasury Secretary: There was no intervention in the oil futures market, and oil prices may be "well below" $80 within months. 5. Iranian Foreign Ministry: Ships from parties not involved in the war have already passed through the Strait of Hormuz. 6. Trading in key London Metal Exchange contracts was once suspended for several hours. 7. Li Chenggang: The Chinese and US teams reached preliminary consensus on certain issues. 8. China and the US agreed to study the establishment of a cooperation mechanism to promote bilateral trade and investment. 9. National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): From January to February, the national economy got off to a strong start and began well Spot fundamentals: Yesterday morning, SHFE lead fell sharply, once dropping below 16,200 yuan/mt in early trading, before recovering part of the losses. Suppliers shipped in line with the market, while some suppliers were reluctant to sell at low prices. Discounts narrowed significantly from last Friday, especially for primary lead smelter cargoes self-picked up from production site, with quotations in major producing areas quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. In addition, as losses widened at secondary lead smelters, some enterprises suspended shipments or offered quotes at high premiums. Secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of 0-75 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Downstream enterprises actively inquired and purchased, with more purchases in major producing areas. However, as market discounts narrowed or turned into premiums, procurement decreased accordingly, and spot market trading was relatively active. Inventory: As of March 16, LME lead inventory increased by 75 mt, or 0.03%, to 284,575 mt; SMM social inventory of lead ingot across five regions increased slightly again. Lead Price Forecast for Today: After plunging sharply yesterday, SHFE lead recovered some of its losses, while discounts for primary lead spot cargo against last Friday narrowed. As losses widened, secondary lead enterprises quoted at premiums, with some choosing not to make shipments; secondary lead prices inverted against primary lead prices, prompting downstream buyers to favor purchases of primary lead. Overall, support from the spot market and cautious downstream sentiment are in a tug-of-war, making it difficult for lead prices to stage a strong reversal for now, with weak consolidation and sideways movement likely to dominate.

SMM Nickel News, March 18: Macro and Market News: (1) "Fed Chairman whisperer" Nick Timiraos said the US Fed may be more inclined to remain silent this week. But forecasts force them to sketch out a path. Two former Fed Chairmen told me they hoped to avoid forecasting interest rate cuts in the near term. Whether current officials will adopt the same stance has become the core focus of this meeting, with both hawks and doves potentially sticking to their positions by pointing to the same shock. (2) US President Trump again expressed his personal dissatisfaction with NATO at the White House on March 17 local time. Trump said whether the US should withdraw from NATO "is indeed something we should consider." Spot Market: On March 18, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel fell by 1,950 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average price of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 6,550 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the range for mainstream electrodeposited nickel brands in China was -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract continued to fluctuate downward during the session and closed the morning session at 135,110 yuan/mt, down 1.49. Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed up oil prices and intensified inflation concerns. The market expects the US Fed may slow down the pace of interest rate cuts, while the US dollar continued to strengthen, creating clear pressure on nickel prices. Although macro pressure remained significant, the industrial support logic has not changed. The market is still concerned that supply of nickel intermediate products tightens. Short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to move sideways in the 135,000-145,000 yuan/mt range.