SMM, May 14: The most-traded SHFE lead 2026 contract opened at 16,635 yuan/mt during the session. After the opening, SHFE lead prices moved sideways within the range of 16,580-16,625 yuan/mt. In the afternoon, driven by gains on LME, lead prices edged up, touching a high of 16,675 yuan/mt. However, dragged down by continued social inventory buildup in China and weak downstream consumption, prices subsequently pulled back slightly, ultimately closing at 16,590 yuan/mt, posting a bearish candlestick with a decline of 25 yuan/mt, or 0.15%. With lead ingot inventory outside China continuing destocking and spot cargo in Southeast Asia remaining persistently tight, LME lead is expected to hold up well overall. Although spot lead prices in China received some support from the strengthening of LME lead, the upward momentum in prices remained relatively limited due to overall weak end-use demand. SMM expects SHFE lead prices to remain in the doldrums in the short term. Data source statement: Data other than publicly available information is derived from publicly available information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM, May 13: The most-traded SHFE lead 2026 contract opened at 16,540 yuan/mt. After the opening, SHFE lead prices moved sideways within the 16,530-16,580 yuan/mt range. In the afternoon, boosted by stronger LME lead prices and the entry of bullish funds, the market fluctuated upward, reaching a high of 16,655 yuan/mt. Gains narrowed slightly toward the close, ultimately settling at 16,615 yuan/mt, recording a bullish candlestick with a gain of 35 yuan/mt, or 0.21%. Currently, ongoing environmental protection checks in South China continue to intensify, leading to a phased contraction in regional secondary lead smelting supply, which provides fundamental support for lead prices. On the other hand, primary lead production remained stable with a slight increase. Additionally, as the delivery date approaches, suppliers have accelerated lead ingot warehousing for delivery, and social inventory continued its buildup trend, further suppressing upside room for lead prices. Overall, bullish and bearish factors are currently intertwined in the market, and lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term. Data source statement: Data other than publicly available information is derived from publicly available information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,987/mt and fluctuated downward to a low of $1,972.5/mt during the Asian session. Driven by concerns over ore supply disruptions due to energy shortages in Peru, LME lead rallied firmly during the European session, touching a high of $1,998/mt near the close and ultimately settling at $1,997.5/mt, up 0.45%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,595 yuan/mt, briefly touched a high of 16,605 yuan/mt at the start, then fluctuated downward to a low of 16,520 yuan/mt before moving sideways near the close, ultimately settling at 16,525 yuan/mt, down 0.33%, marking a fifth consecutive decline. On the macro front: A US appeals court stayed an unfavorable ruling on Trump's 10% global tariffs. India raised the basic customs duty on gold and silver imports from 5% to 10%. Indian banks proactively paid customs duties to resume gold and silver imports, completing customs clearance of 9 mt of gold and 34 mt of silver in May. Russia cut its 2026 crude oil production forecast by 14.2 million mt to 511 million mt, and its export forecast by 4.5 million mt to 237.2 million mt. The US overall CPI annual rate for April was 3.8%, exceeding the expected 3.7% and hitting the highest level since May 2023, with the energy index contributing over 40% of the overall increase. : As the SHFE lead price center shifted further downward, suppliers sold along with the market, with some lowering discounts for shipments. However, affected by the crackdown on "invoice-based tax arbitrage," some trading companies had their invoicing quotas reduced, restricting lead market trading. Primary lead from smelters in the form of cargoes self-picked up from production site was increasingly directed toward downstream enterprises. Additionally, as secondary lead losses widened, smelters showed strong hold back from selling sentiment, with notably fewer spot order quotations. Mainstream production areas quoted secondary refined lead at premiums of +0~+50 yuan/mt over SMM #1 lead on an ex-factory basis. Downstream enterprises maintained just-in-time procurement, with inquiry enthusiasm rising compared to the previous day. However, given the weak lead price trend, apart from some downstream enterprises that purchased as needed, most preferred to wait and see. Inventory: On May 12, LME lead inventory decreased by 375 mt to 265,550 mt. As of May 11, SMM five-region lead ingot social inventory increased by approximately 2,200 mt WoW. Lead price forecast for today: The SHFE lead 2605 contract will enter delivery this week. Suppliers continued to transfer lead ingots to delivery warehouses, and lead ingot social inventory maintained its upward trend, surpassing the 70,000 mt mark again for the first time in nearly two months. Recently, the lead-acid battery market remained in off-season mode, and primary lead supply was stable to rising. In particular, following the sharp rally in SHFE lead last week, downstream enterprises were reluctant to purchase at high prices, and the spread between futures and spot prices widened to above 200 yuan/mt. Suppliers' willingness to ship to delivery warehouse increased. Lead ingot social inventory is expected to continue rising before delivery is completed, with notable resistance for lead prices. Data Source Statement: All data other than publicly available information is SMM processed data based on publicly available information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM, May 11: The most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,705 yuan/mt intraday. From the early session to mid-session, SHFE lead prices moved sideways within the range of 16,680-16,730 yuan/mt. Affected by relatively loose primary lead supply coupled with weak downstream consumption, lead prices pulled back under pressure near the end of the session, hitting a low of 16,655 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 16,675 yuan/mt, down 35 yuan/mt or 0.21%. Supply side, production cuts at secondary lead enterprises led to regional tightness in lead ingot supply, while primary lead production remained stable with a slight increase, resulting in relatively loose overall supply. Bullish and bearish factors were intertwined on the supply side. Consumption side, the off-season trend in the lead-acid battery market remained unchanged, but with the holiday factor removed, downstream enterprises will resume purchasing as needed. SMM expects lead prices to maintain a fluctuating trend in the doldrums in the short term. Data source disclaimer: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM May 8 update: The most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,770 yuan/mt intraday. At the beginning of the session, SHFE lead prices moved sideways within the range of 16,750-16,785 yuan/mt. Subsequently, dragged down by lead ingot inventory buildup, prices fluctuated downward, hitting an intraday low of 16,610 yuan/mt. Prices rebounded slightly toward the close, ultimately settling at 16,710 yuan/mt, down 110 yuan/mt or 0.65%, recording a small bearish candlestick. Sentiment side, geopolitical tensions outside China resurfaced, tightening the macro atmosphere and driving non-ferrous metals overall under pressure to pull back. Fundamentals side, production cuts and shutdowns at secondary lead smelters expanded in scope, but the lead-acid battery industry entered the traditional consumption off-season, with supply and demand weakening simultaneously. Lead ingot inventory continued to accumulate after the holiday, making it difficult to provide effective support for lead prices. In the short term, lead prices are expected to continue their pullback, giving back part of the earlier gains. Data source disclaimer: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM, April 29: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,961.5/mt, briefly touched $1,963/mt early in the session, then fluctuated and pulled back during the Asian session. Entering the European session, prices once rebounded with fluctuations but came under pressure again, dipping to a low of $1,949.5/mt before recovering somewhat. Prices weakened again near the close, ultimately settling at $1,951.5/mt, down 0.61%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,735 yuan/mt. Early in the session, SHFE lead prices moved sideways within 16,720-16,755 yuan/mt, touching a high of 16,755 yuan/mt before pulling back under pressure, displaying an overall fluctuating downward trend to a low of 16,700 yuan/mt. Prices rebounded slightly near the close, ultimately settling at 16,705 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt or 0.06%. Open interest stood at 65,269 lots, an increase of 1,770 lots from the previous trading day. Consumption side, with the Labour Day holiday approaching and battery manufacturers' earlier restocking demand having been met on a phased basis, downstream enterprises showed weak follow-through on just-in-time procurement, with overall consumption remaining subdued. Supply side, constrained by tight raw material inventories, some secondary lead smelters implemented production cuts or halted operations, and regional secondary lead spot cargo continued to tighten. Ex-China, lead ingot destocking continued, while China's primary lead ingot social inventory also showed a slight destocking trend. The current lead market featured a prominent pattern of weakness in both supply and demand, and lead prices were expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the near term.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,961.5/mt, briefly touched a high of $1,963/mt at the beginning of the session, then fluctuated lower during the Asian session. Entering the European session, prices once rebounded but subsequently came under pressure again, hitting a low of $1,949.5/mt before recovering slightly. Prices weakened again near the close, ultimately settling at $1,951.5/mt, down 0.61%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,735 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the session, SHFE lead prices moved sideways within 16,720-16,755 yuan/mt, touching a high of 16,755 yuan/mt. Prices then came under pressure and pulled back, showing an overall fluctuate downward trend, hitting a low of 16,700 yuan/mt. A slight rebound occurred near the close, ultimately settling at 16,705 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt or 0.06%. Open interest stood at 65,269 lots, an increase of 1,770 lots from the previous trading day. On the macro front: The US prohibited its individuals or entities from paying Strait of Hormuz transit fees to Iran. Sources: Iran was expected to submit a revised peace proposal soon. Trump: Iran wanted the US to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible. Iranian military: did not believe the war was over. The UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC and the "OPEC+" mechanism effective May 1. The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze the current economic situation and economic work. China will implement zero tariffs on all African countries with diplomatic relations starting May 1, 2026. MIIT: the next step will be to carry out the "AI + Software" special action, and promote computing power layout and edge computing construction in an orderly manner. Spot fundamentals: Yesterday, SHFE lead continued to consolidate. Suppliers made shipments following the market, but warrant quotations in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai remained scarce. Suppliers mainly offered cargoes self-picked up from production site of primary lead smelters, with premiums adjusted lower from the previous day. Mainstream origins were quoted at premiums of 0-30 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Secondary lead side, supply in east China remained tight with significant regional price differences. Secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 60 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Downstream enterprises maintained just-in-time procurement, and as the holiday approached, a few enterprises had already entered holiday mode. Spot order market transactions were moderate and scattered. Inventory: As of April 28, LME lead inventory decreased by 500 mt to 269,200 mt. As of April 27, SMM lead ingot social inventory saw slight destocking. Lead price forecast for today: Consumption side, with the Labour Day holiday approaching and battery makers' earlier restocking demand having been met on a phased basis, downstream enterprises showed weak follow-through on just-in-time procurement, with overall consumption performance remaining subdued. Supply side, constrained by tight raw material inventory, some secondary lead smelters implemented production cuts and shutdowns, with regional secondary lead spot cargo continuing to tighten; ex-China, lead ingot destocking continued, while China's primary lead ingot social inventory also showed a slight destocking trend. The current lead market exhibited a weak supply-demand pattern on both sides, and lead prices were expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.

SMM April 28: The most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,780 yuan/mt. SHFE lead prices briefly rose at the opening, touching a high of 16,795 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward amid a broad decline in non-ferrous metals. Prices dipped to a low of 16,670 yuan/mt in the later session, rebounded slightly near the close, and ultimately settled at 16,695 yuan/mt, posting a small bearish candlestick, down 20 yuan/mt or 0.12% from the previous day. Supply side, for secondary lead, smelter maintenance increased, tightening supply in east China. For primary lead, SMM lead ingot social inventory saw slight destocking, with total volumes declining. Additionally, lead ingot destocking outside China continued, reducing imported lead inflows into China. Demand side, some enterprises were approaching the holiday, and coupled with the off-season impact, downstream manufacturers generally maintained a wait-and-see sentiment, with rigid demand contracting notably. The weak supply-demand pattern persisted, and SMM expects lead prices to move sideways in the near term. Data source disclaimer: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM April 27 News: The most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,755 yuan/mt during the session. SHFE lead prices edged up initially, touching a high of 16,805 yuan/mt. Bullish momentum then slowed down, and prices moved sideways around 16,770 yuan/mt. In the afternoon session, futures fluctuated downward, dipping to a low of 16,690 yuan/mt. Prices rebounded slightly near the close, ultimately settling at 16,715 yuan/mt, forming a doji, up 45 yuan/mt or 0.27% from the previous day. Supply side, for secondary lead, smelter maintenance increased, and supply in east China remained tight. For primary lead, SMM lead ingot social inventory saw a slight buildup, with total volumes trending upward. Demand side, some enterprises were approaching the holiday, and coupled with the off-season impact, downstream manufacturers generally maintained a wait-and-see sentiment on procurement, with rigid demand in the market contracting notably. Affected by weakness in both supply and demand, SMM expects lead prices to move sideways in the short term. Data source statement: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM April 24 News: The most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,665 yuan/mt intraday. During the early to mid-session, SHFE lead prices moved sideways in the range of 16,635–16,675 yuan/mt, edged higher in the afternoon session, touching a high of 16,700 yuan/mt, before pulling back to close at 16,670 yuan/mt, recording a bearish candlestick, up 10 yuan/mt or 0.06%. The off-season trend in the lead-acid battery sector deepened, with downstream production cuts expanding and purchasing demand remaining persistently weak, while lead ingot social inventory continued to build steadily. In Jiangsu, Anhui, and other regions, secondary lead enterprises increasingly curtailed or halted production, tightening regional supply. Overall market sentiment remained mixed between bulls and bears, compounded by macro disruptions, with lead prices expected to remain in the doldrums in the near term. Data Source Disclaimer: All data beyond publicly available information is derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, provided for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.