[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, SHFE copper prices are expected to rise intraday and remain at a relatively high level. Coupled with the futures contract rollover, trading activity is likely to be muted, reflecting that the current price level is significantly suppressing real demand. After the rollover, the market will officially price around the 2607 contract, and close attention should be paid to the outflow of unmatched warrants. However, open interest for the SHFE copper 2606 contract currently stands at approximately 5,500 lots, indicating limited delivery participation. The concentrated release of warrants is therefore expected to exert relatively limited additional pressure on spot discounts. Supported by delivery-related dynamics, Shanghai spot copper discounts did not see a sharp decline. But if copper prices remain at current highs and demand fails to improve effectively, spot premiums may come under downward pressure.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, SHFE copper prices are expected to rise intraday and remain at a relatively high level. Coupled with the futures contract rollover, trading activity is likely to be muted, reflecting that the current price level is significantly suppressing real demand. After the rollover, the market will officially price around the 2607 contract, and close attention should be paid to the outflow of unmatched warrants. However, open interest for the SHFE copper 2606 contract currently stands at approximately 5,500 lots, indicating limited delivery participation. The concentrated release of warrants is therefore expected to exert relatively limited additional pressure on spot discounts. Supported by delivery-related dynamics, Shanghai spot copper discounts did not see a sharp decline. But if copper prices remain at current highs and demand fails to improve effectively, spot premiums may come under downward pressure.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Last Friday night, LME copper opened at $13,788/mt, touched a high of $13,803/mt at the beginning of the session, then the copper price center continuously moved downward, dipping to $13,499.5/mt near the end of the session, and finally settled at $13,517/mt, a decline of 2.78%. Trading volume reached 25,200 lots, and open interest was 273,000 lots, increasing by 1,576 lots compared to the previous trading day, indicating an increase in bearish positions. Last Friday night, the most-traded LME copper contract 2607 opened at 104,790 yuan/mt, rose to 105,000 yuan/mt at the start, then fluctuated downward throughout the session, dipping to 103,600 yuan/mt near the end, and finally settled at 103,800 yuan/mt, a decline of 1.84%. Trading volume reached 62,000 lots, and open interest was 167,000 lots, decreasing by 6,309 lots compared to the previous trading day, indicating a reduction in bullish positions.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,489/mt, initially rising to $13,533.5/mt before the price center gradually shifted lower to $13,386/mt, ultimately closing at $13,427/mt, down 1.2%. Trading volume reached 20,000 lots, and open interest stood at 277,000 lots, a decrease of 6,463 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 104,130 yuan/mt, initially touching a high of 104,170 yuan/mt before the price center shifted lower to a low of 103,390 yuan/mt, ultimately moving sideways to close at 103,670 yuan/mt, down 0.82%. Trading volume reached 31,000 lots, and open interest stood at 143,000 lots, a decrease of 4,124 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls reducing positions.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, SHFE copper prices retreated after rapid rise during the day, but absolute prices remained at high levels, continuing to suppress spot premiums. Suppliers further lowered their offers during the second trading session, and Shanghai spot copper premiums continued to widen. Downstream buyers only maintained just-in-time procurement, with insufficient willingness to chase higher prices. Some suppliers had invoice supplementation needs and made purchases in the market, providing some support for spot discounts. Overall, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2606 contract are expected to remain at a discount tomorrow.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,477/mt, dipped to a low of $13,436/mt in early trading, then the price center gradually shifted upward to reach $13,625/mt, and finally moved sideways at high levels to close at $13,590/mt, up 0.34%, with trading volume at 24,000 lots and open interest at 283,000 lots, an increase of 2,099 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 104,480 yuan/mt, touched a high of 104,840 yuan/mt in early trading, then the price center shifted slightly lower to a low of 104,440 yuan/mt, and finally moved sideways to close at 104,590 yuan/mt, up 0.28%, with trading volume at 30,000 lots and open interest at 154,000 lots, a decrease of 3,110 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions.

Intraday SHFE copper prices edged down, effectively activating some downstream buying interest. According to SMM, orders at some downstream processing enterprises increased by approximately 30% compared to the previous trading day, with part of the transactions concentrated around 103,500 yuan/mt, indicating that current price levels still held certain appeal for end-users. Inventory side, SMM data showed that social inventory in the Shanghai region was recorded at 181,800 mt, down 2,800 mt WoW from last Thursday; inventory in the Jiangsu region was 38,100 mt, up slightly by 1,200 mt WoW from last Thursday. Overall, a mild destocking trend was observed, with inventory pressure easing marginally. Market performance side, supplier offers were basically stable, and the transaction center showed no significant downward shift. Overall, supported by demand release stimulated by copper price pullbacks and mild destocking, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2606 contract are expected to remain at a discount tomorrow, continuing a generally stable trend.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Intraday SHFE copper prices edged down, effectively activating some downstream buying interest. According to SMM, orders from some downstream processing enterprises increased by approximately 30% compared to the previous trading day, with some transactions concentrated around 103,500 yuan/mt, indicating that current price levels still hold certain appeal for end-users. Inventory side, SMM data showed that social inventory in the Shanghai area registered 181,800 mt, down 2,800 mt WoW from last Thursday; inventory in the Jiangsu area was 38,100 mt, up slightly 1,200 mt WoW from last Thursday. Overall, a mild destocking trend was observed, with inventory pressure easing marginally. From market performance, suppliers' offers remained basically stable, and the transaction center showed no significant downward shift. Overall, supported by demand release stimulated by copper price pullbacks and mild destocking, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2606 contract are expected to remain at a discount tomorrow, continuing a generally stable trend.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Last Friday, LME copper opened at $13,609.5/mt, touched a high of $13,661.5/mt in early trading, then the price center gradually shifted lower to $13,467.5/mt, and finally moved sideways to close at $13,544.5/mt, down 3.15%, with trading volume at 34,000 lots and open interest at 281,000 lots, an increase of 3,469 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears adding positions. Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 104,050 yuan/mt, dipped to 103,810 yuan/mt in early trading, then the price center shifted slightly higher to touch 104,760 yuan/mt, and finally moved sideways to close at 104,440 yuan/mt, down 0.26%, with trading volume at 38,000 lots and open interest at 167,000 lots, a decrease of 3,793 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls reducing positions.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, intraday SHFE copper prices declined, and downstream orders saw a slight increase in volume. However, the current copper prices remain less attractive to end-users, with the volume increase being insignificant as the high-price suppression effect persists. According to SMM, end-user enterprises mostly placed orders around 102,000-103,000 yuan/mt. Some downstream enterprises have opted to shut down furnaces for maintenance due to high copper prices, reflecting the notable suppression of actual demand at current price levels. After the contract rollover, the market will officially price around the 2606 contract, and close attention should be paid to the outflow of unmatched warrants. However, the current open interest of the SHFE copper 2605 contract stands at only 4,775 lots, with limited participation in delivery, so the concentrated release of warrants is expected to have relatively limited further pressure on spot discounts. Supported by delivery logic, Shanghai spot copper discounts did not see a significant decline. However, if copper prices remain at current highs, the demand side will struggle to improve effectively, and spot discounts may come under pressure. Overall, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2606 contract are expected to remain at a discount next week.