SMM, August 10: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals showed mixed performance. SHFE copper fell 0.52%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.15%, SHFE lead increased 0.41%, SHFE zinc dropped 1.68%, SHFE tin lost 1.34%, and SHFE nickel edged up 0.33%. Additionally, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures edged up, while the most-traded alumina futures edged down. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures rose 1.5%. The most-traded silicon metal futures gained 0.47%. The most-traded polysilicon futures fell 2.54%. Ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Iron ore slipped 0.7%, rebar lost 0.47%, and hot-rolled coil dipped 0.15%. Stainless steel advanced 0.48%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.75% and the most-traded coke contract added 0.43%. In the overseas base metals market, as of 11:43, LME metals broadly rose. LME copper gained 0.3%, LME aluminum climbed 0.69%, LME lead rose 0.29%, and LME zinc edged down 0.09%. LME tin was up 0.52% and LME nickel was down 0.21%. In precious metals, as of 11:43, COMEX gold fell 0.28% and COMEX silver rose 0.36%. In domestic precious metals: SHFE gold gained 1.5% and the most-traded SHFE silver futures rose 2.05%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 0.61% and the most-traded palladium futures fell 0.05%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping futures fell 2.8% to 1,634 points. As of 11:43 on August 10, selected futures’ midday quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at parity, down 60 yuan/mt; SX-EW copper was quoted at parity, down 60 yuan/mt. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 107,945 yuan/mt, down 410 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 107,835 yuan/mt, down 410 yuan/mt. In the spot market, Guangdong inventory edged up after the weekend, mainly due to increased arrivals of imported copper... Macro Front Domestic side: [NBS: July CPI up 0.5% YoY, PPI up 3.5% YoY] NBS data showed that in July, due to imported factors, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.1% MoM and rose 0.5% YoY. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.3% MoM and 0.9% YoY. Overall, CPI maintained a mild increase. China saw increased demand in some sectors, but affected by imported factors and seasonality, the producer price index (PPI) fell 0.7% MoM and rose 3.5% YoY, with the growth rate pulling back 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. In July 2026, China's producer price index rose 3.5% YoY and fell 0.7% MoM. The industrial producer purchase price index rose 5.5% YoY and fell 1.0% MoM. From January to July, the average producer price index rose 1.8% YoY, and the average producer purchase price index rose 2.8% YoY. Dong Lijuan, chief statistician at the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), commented on the CPI and PPI data for July 2026. [PBOC reverse repo operation resulted in a net withdrawal of 45 billion yuan on the day] The PBOC conducted 18 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations today, with 63 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 45 billion yuan on the day. (Jin10 Data App) US dollar: As of 11:43, the US dollar index rose 0.12% to 99.72. According to the CME "FedWatch": The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged by September is 55.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 44.4%. The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged by October is 40.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 47.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 11.8%. (Jin10 Data App) Economists surveyed by Reuters expect the US July headline CPI annual rate to fall to 3.4% from 3.5% in June; the core CPI annual rate is expected to fall to 2.5% from 2.6% in the previous month. Economists at Citigroup believe that, as expected, if there is a second consecutive month of softer inflation readings, it would mean more than one month of data pointing to cooling inflationary pressures, essentially ruling out a September rate hike. However, economists also expect a slight increase in core services inflation in July, with prices rising 0.3% MoM. Previously, the data was flat from May to June. Bank of America analysts said a rebound in core services indicators could still keep a September rate hike on the table. Analyst Kate Duguid said that if the latter view prevails and inflation data comes in below expectations, then the Fed rate hike could be postponed to December or later. (Jin10 Data App) The US CPI report released on Wednesday is undoubtedly the most watched data this week. Economists generally expected the annual inflation rate to slow slightly, but core inflation to likely stay high, reflecting persistent price pressures in the services and housing sectors. Based on the latest data, the US Fed remained cautious, emphasizing the need for further confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward its 2% target before considering interest rate cuts. (Jin10 Data App) Data: Data for the Eurozone's August Sentix Investor Confidence Index and China's July M2 money supply YoY have been released today. On the radar: The Bank of Japan released a summary of opinions from its July monetary policy meeting. Crude Oil: As of 11:43, oil prices rose in both benchmarks, with WTI up 0.67% and Brent up 0.91%. Stalled negotiations between Iran and the US over reopening the Strait of Hormuz supported oil prices. Weekend talks between Iran and Oman failed to reach an agreement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi explicitly stated that Tehran currently had no direct negotiations with the US. According to media reports, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until the US met six conditions, including ending military and aggressive actions against Iran and its allies, and providing compensation to Iran. The US insisted that any reopening arrangement must guarantee unimpeded freedom of navigation without conditions like Iranian approvals, fees, or controls. Citigroup noted that attacks by Yemen's Houthi forces on Saudi-affiliated vessels near the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait continued, keeping risks beyond Hormuz also high. (Wall Street CN) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Tomorrow, due to the impact of typhoon weather, cargo pick-up and transportation at some warehouses in east China will be restricted, and short-term cargo circulation efficiency will decline, providing some support to the spot market. However, trading was sluggish during the day. Affected by weather factors and high copper prices, downstream purchase willingness declined significantly, and purchases were mostly based on rigid demand. Some processing enterprises in Zhejiang reduced their cargo pick-up arrangements to Shanghai due to traffic restrictions, providing limited support from the demand side. On the inventory front, SMM recorded Shanghai social inventory at 78,300 mt, up 2,200 mt WoW from last Thursday; Jiangsu social inventory at 18,100 mt, down 2,400 mt WoW from last Thursday. Overall inventory changes in east China were limited, without reflecting significant supply pressure. Meanwhile, the backwardation spread between contracts widened to 240-310 yuan/mt. The spread between spot and futures widened, and some suppliers' need to roll positions and convert to cash increased, which may exert some pressure on spot premiums. Overall, with the combined effects of typhoon weather disrupting cargo circulation, the widening backwardation structure, and sluggish trading, it is expected that Shanghai spot copper against the 2608 contract will still maintain premiums tomorrow, but the overall center may fluctuate slightly. Attention should be paid to cargo pick-up and supply circulation at warehouses after the weather improves.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Last Friday night, LME copper opened at $14,141/mt. At the beginning of the session, it swung wildly and hit a high of $14,173/mt. Then the center of copper prices shifted straight downward, dipping to $14,006/mt near the end of the session, and finally settled at $14,022/mt, down 0.5%. Trading volume reached 19,800 lots, and open interest stood at 258,000 lots, up 3,254 lots from the previous trading day, indicating an increase by bears. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 108,010 yuan/mt. It immediately rose to 108,140 yuan/mt at the beginning, then the center of copper prices consolidated lower, dipping to 107,130 yuan/mt near the end, and finally settled at 107,160 yuan/mt, down 0.8%. Trading volume reached 45,000 lots, and open interest stood at 215,000 lots, down 6,056 lots from the previous trading day, indicating a reduction by bulls.

SMM August 10: Last Friday night, LME copper opened at $14,141/mt, shot up in early session to a high of $14,173/mt amid wild swings, then its center dropped sharply, dipping near the close to $14,006/mt, finally settling at $14,022/mt, down 0.5%, with trading volume at 19,800 lots and open interest at 258,000 lots, up 3,254 lots from the previous trading day, showing bears added positions. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE copper September 2609 contract opened at 108,010 yuan/mt, initially climbed to 108,140 yuan/mt, then its center drifted lower, near the close touching a low of 107,130 yuan/mt, finally settling at 107,160 yuan/mt, down 0.8%, with trading volume at 45,000 lots and open interest at 215,000 lots, down 6,056 lots from the previous trading day, showing bulls cut positions. On the macro front, US July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000, while the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, sending mixed employment signals. Trump initiated proceedings to remove Fed Governor Cook, and said rates are not solely decided by Warsh; geopolitically, Trump postponed military action against Iran, but Iran said the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Weakening nonfarm payrolls put the US dollar under pressure, but the Fed independence controversy and Middle East uncertainty sent copper prices shooting up before pulling back. Fundamentally, the supply of available spot cargoes hasn't eased significantly yet, but the approaching delivery and position rollover demand are expected to increase the circulation of lower-priced cargoes, with overall tightness maintained. Demand side, constrained by the off-season and elevated copper prices, downstream users only made just-in-time procurement. Taking all into account, copper prices are expected to drift higher today.

In July 2026, the operating rate of secondary copper rod was 12.43%, lower than the expected 12.61%, down 0.18 percentage points MoM and 18.47 percentage points YoY. In July 2026, the copper scrap rod market operated under the dominant theme of the most-traded SHFE copper contract shooting up from 102,000 yuan/mt to above 106,000 yuan/mt, with a monthly gain exceeding 3,000 yuan/mt. Driven by the one-sided rally of copper cathode and insufficient follow-through from copper scrap, the price difference between primary metal and scrap widened from around 2,000 yuan/mt at the start of the month to over 4,000 yuan/mt at month-end, and at one point mid-month it even reached 4,800 yuan/mt. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod also hit the economic threshold of above 1,800 yuan/mt during the copper price surge. Under the dual framework of continued reverse invoicing compliance constraints and deepening high-temperature off-season, the market displayed a distinct polarization: structural tightness in supply, robust downstream arbitrage-driven purchases, and an off-season that was even weaker for physical consumption. Starting July 1, the new "three-in-one reverse invoicing" policy (with the prepayment rate of individual income tax for natural persons with annual sales of up to 600,000 yuan reduced to 0.25%) was formally implemented, further reshaping the regional supply landscape. On the supply side, the copper scrap market continued the structural tightness seen since 2026, with the underlying constraint still being the combined impact of the reverse invoicing policy and the phase-out of fiscal and tax subsidies: inspections in Hubei and other regions became stricter, and invoicing quotas in areas such as Shuyang, Jiangsu remained restricted. More critically, in July, Henan province abolished fiscal and tax subsidies while reverse invoicing could still be implemented. In Shuyang, Jiangsu, following the reverse invoicing controls, companies were notified in July of the cancellation of subsidies, and most scrap utilization enterprises had suspended operations to wait and see. Some unfulfilled orders from Jiangsu flowed to neighboring provinces, and available compliant and deductible copper scrap remained tight. Mainstream copper scrap invoice tax rates had exceeded 11%, rising to 12% in some areas, further driving up raw material procurement costs for enterprises. On the demand side, as the price difference between primary metal and scrap widened to above 3,800 yuan/mt, the economic viability of copper scrap became evident, and secondary copper rod enterprises' purchase willingness was remarkably robust. However, this robust purchase willingness was mainly directed at futures arbitrage rather than physical restocking. During the copper price surge, secondary copper rod enterprises widely adopted a hedging logic of "buy raw materials and sell futures" to purchase copper scrap. After securing enough for the day's demand during the morning session, they stopped quoting and did not chase higher prices to accept goods. However, such arbitrage-driven purchases initially did not fully translate into actual production restocking. The end-user wire and cable and enamelled wire industries were squeezed by the dual pressures of low copper cathode inventories with high premiums and high absolute copper prices, with pervasive fear of high prices. New orders became even weaker in the off-season. At month-end, secondary copper rod enterprises’ raw material inventory had reached a relatively ample level after mid-month hedging purchases, and the purchasing sentiment index dropped from 2.21 to a low of 2.03. The core market contradiction shifted from "spread dividend goes to arbitrage" to "ample inventory suppressing transactions." Overall, the core contradiction in the secondary copper rod market in July shifted from "copper price level" to "who gets the spread dividend" and "where compliant supply is located" — the price difference between primary metal and scrap of around 4,000 yuan/mt brought by the copper price surge was essentially captured by arbitrage funds; secondary copper rod enterprises’ operations of buying raw materials and shorting futures supported the circulation of copper scrap, but this was not transmitted to physical consumption. The cancellation of subsidies in Henan, Shuyang in Jiangsu, and other regions triggered a regional supply restructuring, further concentrating compliant cargoes in areas with a relatively stable policy environment. The outflow of orders from Jiangsu to neighboring provinces is a direct reflection of this restructuring. Looking ahead to August, if the price difference between primary metal and scrap can stabilize above 4,000 yuan/mt, the implementation standards for reverse invoicing become clearer, and quotas in some regions are marginally relaxed, this may drive some restocking demand. Otherwise, amid a combination of low copper cathode inventory, high premiums, and downstream users’ fear of high prices, the secondary copper rod market will continue with a weak equilibrium pattern of "suppliers sell when copper prices rise, rod enterprises hedge and buy, but both sides wait and see when prices are high." A genuine recovery in physical consumption will still need to wait for a correction in copper prices or a material improvement in end-user orders.

This week (Aug. 3 – Aug. 7), the weekly average warrant transaction price range for Yangshan copper premiums was $101–$112/mt, QP August, with an average of $106/mt; the weekly average B/L transaction price range was $96–$107/mt, QP September, with an average of $102/mt; and EQ copper CIF B/L prices were $64–$73/mt, QP September, with an average of $69/mt. As of Aug. 7, the ex-exchange rate SHFE/LME copper price ratio for the SHFE copper 2608 contract against LME copper was 1.1247, with an import loss of around 1,385.43 yuan/mt, expanding by about 857 yuan/mt WoW. As of Friday, the backwardation structure for the August LME copper date widened WoW, with the carry spread between the August and September dates at −$61.53/mt. Currently, mainstream offer prices for ER registered copper B/L have dropped to double-digit levels; mainstream warrant offer prices for registered copper were near $100/mt. This week, Yangshan copper premiums pulled back from high levels, mainly because the SHFE/LME price ratio continued to deteriorate, compounded by the widening backwardation structure of nearby LME contracts, which increased suppliers' willingness to offer cargo. Meanwhile, as copper prices surged, downstream consumption demand was poor. Additionally, high premiums in the domestic market previously attracted cancelled warrants from LME Asian warehouses, which gradually arrived in China, causing temporary congestion at Shanghai Port. Together with some export cargo pressuring prices, market spot premiums weakened. According to SMM data, China's bonded zone copper inventories as of Thursday this week (Aug. 6) decreased by about 6,000 mt WoW from the previous period (Jul. 30) to 31,100 mt. Specifically, Shanghai bonded inventory decreased by 6,500 mt WoW to 26,900 mt, while Guangdong bonded inventory increased by 500 mt WoW to 4,200 mt. The weekly bonded zone inventory decline was mainly because of reports that cargo ships were heading to the US. Additionally, the slight opening of the export window led to small-scale exports by some smelters to the bonded zone. Looking ahead, the siphoning effect from North America continues, so the logic of overall supply constraints in the market remains. However, with the SHFE/LME price ratio significantly inverted, consumption demand suppressed by high copper prices, and expectations of concentrated cargo arrivals at ports, traders' psychological price expectations for spot cargo are rapidly declining, and imported copper premiums are expected to see a temporary pullback. Additionally, with the export window slightly open, smelters have export expectations. According to SMM, export volumes in the first week of August up to now have been relatively limited, and future export volumes need continued monitoring.

This week, SHFE copper spot premiums showed an overall rapid pullback. At the start of the week, the monthly procurement cycle began, restocking demand from some downstream players and traders was released, and spot premiums rebounded slightly. However, as SHFE copper prices continued to rise, copper prices significantly suppressed end-user procurement, and market transactions gradually weakened. After mid-week, suppliers continuously lowered their quotes to boost transactions, and the premium center for standard-quality copper moved down rapidly. Meanwhile, low-priced non-registered copper entered the market, exerting some pressure on quotes for registered standard-quality copper. Toward the weekend, although some downstream players made just-in-time procurement, leading to improved transactions, overall demand release was limited. On the inventory front, SMM data showed that on August 7, social inventory in Shanghai stood at 76,100 mt, edging down from the start of the week; inventory in Jiangsu stood at 20,500 mt, with limited overall inventory changes. Looking ahead to next week, SHFE copper spot premiums are likely to gradually shift to discounts. Supply side: Although currently available cargoes are not significantly loose and supply for some brands remains tight, as delivery approaches, some suppliers need to shift positions, and the circulation of low-priced cargoes in the market may increase. Meanwhile, the inter-month backwardation spread may widen further, which could also boost suppliers’ willingness to sell. Demand side: With copper prices remaining high, downstream purchases are still mainly based on just-in-time needs, acceptance of high premiums is limited, and there is little room for procurement volumes to expand. Overall, under the combined effect of high copper prices suppressing consumption, increased cargo circulation as delivery nears, and a widening backwardation spread, spot prices for SHFE copper against the SHFE copper 2608 contract are expected to gradually shift to discounts next week. The extent of the discount will need to monitor changes in the inter-month spread and the flow of cargoes in the market.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, with delivery approaching, Shanghai spot copper prices continue to rise, and the backwardation spread between nearby and next-month contracts shows signs of further widening. Some suppliers face the need to roll positions, which may drive an increase in low-priced available cargoes, exerting some pressure on spot premiums. Intraday, ahead of the weekend, some downstream buyers made just-in-time procurement, while some enterprises had demand for invoices. Market transactions improved from yesterday, and although suppliers still lowered their offers, the overall price reduction was limited. Supply side, currently available cargoes have not become significantly looser, and the circulation of some brands is limited, providing some support to the downside of premiums. Overall, against the backdrop of position rolling pressure near delivery, widening price spreads between futures contracts, and just-in-time procurement by downstream buyers, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE 2608 contract are expected to trade at a discount next week. The discount magnitude will depend on the movement of the spread and the flow of market supply.

SMM, August 7 report: In metals market: As of midday closing, base metals in the domestic market nearly all rose. SHFE copper rose 0.56%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.86%. SHFE lead rose 0.48%. SHFE zinc rose 1.35%. SHFE tin fell 0.3%. SHFE nickel rose 0.44%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract rose 0.32%, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.33%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 1.23%. The most-traded silicon metal contract rose 2.21%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 5.03%. Ferrous metals all rose. Iron ore rose 0.28%, rebar edged up, hot-rolled coil rose 0.43%. Stainless steel rose 1.39%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 2.6%, the most-traded coke contract rose 3.22%. In the overseas base metals market, as of 11:40, LME metals collectively rose. LME copper rose 0.69%, LME aluminum rose 0.31%, LME lead rose 0.4%, LME zinc rose 0.44%. LME tin rose 0.42%. LME nickel rose 1.61%. In precious metals, as of 11:40, COMEX gold rose 0.43%, COMEX silver rose 1.45%. In domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 0.28%, the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 0.11%. Additionally, as of midday closing, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 1.71%, the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 1.55%. As of midday closing, the most-traded European route container shipping futures contract rose 1.79% to 1,682 points. As of 11:40 on August 7, some futures midday quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was at 160 yuan/mt, up 70 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was at a premium of 60 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was at 0 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 108,355 yuan/mt, up 455 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 108,245 yuan/mt, up 425 yuan/mt from the previous trading day... Macro Front China: [Over 30 trillion yuan! China's goods trade imports and exports continued their growth trend in the first seven months of this year] The General Administration of Customs released statistics today showing that in the first seven months of this year, China's goods trade imports and exports totaled 30.13 trillion yuan, up 17.3% YoY, continuing a strong growth trend. Exports reached 17.44 trillion yuan, up 14%; imports reached 12.69 trillion yuan, up 22%. In July, total imports and exports reached RMB4.66 trillion, up 19.2% YoY. Of which, exports stood at RMB2.71 trillion, up 17.8% YoY, and imports were RMB1.95 trillion, up 21.2% YoY. [National Energy Administration: Increase Independent R&D of Key Power Equipment, Promote Breakthroughs in Key Technologies Such as Power Chips and UHV Components] The National Energy Administration issued the "Power Production Safety '15th Five-Year' Action Plan". It mentioned strengthening "AI+" safety governance, innovating high-precision fault prediction and health management methods for equipment, promoting the embedding of AI technology into intelligent safety tools, and researching AI large model-based decision support technology for power production safety. Increase independent R&D of key power equipment, strengthen R&D of new-type protective materials, establish a special plan for tackling core component technologies in power equipment, and promote breakthroughs in key technologies such as power chips and UHV components. Promote innovation in safety and quality control technologies for power construction projects, research and build an intelligent supervision system for power construction projects, and use AI, big data and other means to strengthen off-site supervision and quality monitoring of key power projects. (National Energy Administration) [General Administration of Customs: Cumulative Integrated Circuit Exports Up 99.5% YoY, January-July] Data released by the General Administration of Customs showed that China's integrated circuit export value reached $38.74 billion in July, and the cumulative export value from January to July reached $216 billion, up 99.5% YoY. (Jinshi Data APP) [PBOC Open Market Operations Net Drain of RMB133 Billion on the Day, Net Drain of RMB1,225.5 Billion for the Week] The PBOC conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of RMB1 billion today, and as RMB134 billion of 7-day reverse repos matured, a net drain of RMB133 billion was realized on the day. This week, the PBOC conducted 7-day reverse repo operations of RMB176.5 billion, overnight reverse repo operations of RMB300 billion, and outright reverse repo operations of RMB500 billion. As RMB116.5 billion of 7-day reverse repos and RMB900 billion of overnight reverse repos matured this week, a net drain of RMB1,225.5 billion was realized for the week. (Jinshi Data APP) US dollar: As of 11:40, the US dollar index rose 0.02% to 99.96. The market is eyeing US non-farm payrolls data for clues on the interest rate outlook. According to the CME "Fed Watch": the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 45%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 55%. By October, the probability of unchanged rates is 31%, a cumulative 25-bp hike is 51.9%, and a cumulative 50-bp hike is 17.1%. (Jinshi Data App) US Fed’s Musalem: The current inflation rate remains well above the US Fed’s 2% target. Monetary policy must effectively curb underlying inflation rather than tolerate current high inflation in hopes of future productivity gains. US Q2 labour productivity increased faster than expected, mainly because enterprises sought to ease pressures from rising costs. Data released on Thursday showed Q2 nonfarm productivity grew at an annualised rate of 1.4%, above the upwardly revised 0.8% increase in Q1, and also exceeded market expectations. Meanwhile, unit labour costs rose 1.3%, below expectations. US Fed officials, investors, and economists have been looking for signs that hundreds of billions of dollars in AI investment are boosting labour productivity. However, since official data fluctuates greatly from quarter to quarter, it will still take time to observe clear trends. Labour costs are one of the largest expenditure items for many enterprises, and efficiency gains can allow wages to rise without fuelling inflation. In the long term, higher productivity helps improve living standards, but some economists worry that if AI-driven productivity growth persists, some enterprises may delay hiring or even cut staff. Q2 productivity growth was supported by the strongest output expansion since Q3 2025, while the increase in hours worked was more moderate. (Jinshi Data App) Data: Today will see the release of France’s Q2 ILO unemployment rate, Germany’s June seasonally adjusted industrial output m/m, Germany’s June seasonally adjusted trade balance, the UK’s July Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index m/m, France’s June trade balance, Switzerland’s July consumer sentiment index, Canada’s July employment change, the US July unemployment rate, the US July seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls, the US July average hourly earnings y/y, the US July average hourly earnings m/m, the US July New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations, China’s July US dollar-denominated trade balance, China’s July foreign exchange reserves, and China’s July trade balance. Watch for: 2028 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem speaks on the US economy and monetary policy; 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks. Crude oil: As of 11:40, both oil prices rose, with WTI up 1.01% and Brent up 1.06%. Market concerns over the shipping outlook through the Strait of Hormuz supported prices. According to preliminary US government data, US crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia fell to zero in July this year, the first time since 1985 that there were no Saudi crude imports for an entire month. Data released by the US Department of Energy (DOE) on Wednesday local time showed that Saudi crude oil shipments to the US had completely halted in July. Considering that US refineries had been purchasing more than 800,000 barrels per day of Saudi crude earlier this year, this drop was significant. As the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and other war-related supply disruptions pushed up crude prices linked to the global benchmark, US refineries had been seeking alternative supplies to Saudi crude. Saudi crude deliveries to the US had historically dropped to zero in isolated weeks, but July was the first time in over 40 years that the entire month fell to a minimum level. According to Kpler data, US crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia are expected to recover to around 300,000 barrels per day this month, in line with recent historical norms. (Jin10 Data APP) Saudi Arabia lowered its main crude prices for Asia, while negotiations were underway on a deal aimed at easing shipping pressures in the Strait of Hormuz. Despite Houthi threats jeopardizing an alternative route for eastbound crude shipments via the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia still lowered prices. A price list showed that Saudi Aramco cut the price of Arab Light crude for delivery to Asian clients next month by 50¢ per barrel, to $2 per barrel below the regional benchmark. A previous survey showed that traders had expected Saudi Aramco to keep its flagship crude prices unchanged. This week, global benchmark Brent crude prices fell sharply, currently trading near $80 a barrel. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

On the macro front , this week copper prices drifted higher overall. Negotiations between the U.S., Iran, and Oman over the Strait of Hormuz made progress, and market expectations for a near-term reopening of the strait heightened. International oil prices pulled back accordingly, easing inflation worries from energy prices. Meanwhile, the U.S. July ADP employment figure came in below market expectations, and the cooling labour market also dampened market expectations for multiple US Fed rate hikes this year. Although some Fed officials still sent hawkish signals and the strait reopening arrangements are not yet fully clear, their pressure on copper prices was relatively limited. Additionally, expectations that the U.S. may impose tariffs on imported copper continued to attract copper cathode flows to the U.S., driving inventory accumulation at COMEX. Meanwhile, LME inventories and deliverable stocks kept declining, creating a clear regional mismatch of exchange inventories. U.S. tariff premiums and tightening supply outside the U.S. combined to push LME copper prices higher. As of 11:00 Beijing time on August 7, 2026, LME copper hit a low of $13,769/mt this week before shooting up to a high of $14,369/mt, up $600/mt from the low, a gain of about 4.36%. The most-traded SHFE copper contract hit a low of 105,140 yuan/mt, then rebounded to 108,470 yuan/mt, up 3,330 yuan/mt from the low, a gain of about 3.17%. Fundamentals side , as of August 6, SMM copper inventories across major regions in China increased by 7,300 mt WoW to 119,200 mt, extending the accumulation trend. On the supply side, arrivals of both domestic copper and imported copper cathode increased recently, with imported materials such as Peruvian large plates, ESOX, and Myanmar copper gradually circulating in the market. Combined with higher copper prices boosting suppliers’ willingness to sell, spot supply that was previously tight gradually eased. On the demand side, end-user orders were generally weak amid the traditional consumption off-season, and high copper prices further suppressed downstream purchase willingness. Market transactions were sluggish, and purchases remained mainly need-based. However, hi-quality copper and registered SX-EW copper supplies were relatively limited, and transactions improved for some low-priced cargoes, still providing some support to spot premiums. Looking ahead to next week , the market will continue to watch whether the U.S.-Iran deal materializes, the Strait of Hormuz reopening arrangements, and Fed officials’ comments on the future rate path. If expectations for the strait's reopening persist, oil prices and inflation worries will cool further, and together with a slowing U.S. labour market, macro sentiment may still support copper prices. Should negotiations falter again, geopolitical risks and energy price fluctuations could increase volatility in the futures market. In addition, watch out for a resurgence of resource protectionist policies outside China, which could further disrupt global copper flows. Fundamentals side, increasing domestic and imported copper supply will continue to ease domestic spot supply tightness, but high copper prices, inventory accumulation, and the off-season will limit downstream restocking, and SHFE copper spot premiums still face downward pressure. Next week, copper prices are expected to consolidate at highs with an upward bias, with LME copper likely to outperform SHFE copper, but SHFE copper’s upside room will still be constrained by weak domestic demand.