[SMM Aluminum Flash] On August 14, SHFE aluminum futures warrants stood at 297,843 mt, down 2,227 mt from the previous trading day; over the past week, SHFE aluminum futures warrants fell by a total of 9,165 mt, or 2.99%; over the past month, SHFE aluminum futures warrants fell by a total of 85,936 mt, or 22.39%.

SMM August 14 News: Metals market: As of the midday close, most domestic base metals moved lower. SHFE copper fell 0.2%, SHFE aluminum fell 1.2%. SHFE lead fell 0.81%. SHFE zinc fell 0.51%. SHFE tin rose 0.17%. SHFE nickel fell 1.12%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract fell 1.43%, and the most-traded alumina contract edged lower. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 2.23%. The most-traded silicon metal contract rose 1.63%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 1.27%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore rose 0.42%, rebar rose 0.43%, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.71%. Stainless steel fell 1.97%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.25%, while the most-traded coke contract fell 0.29%. On the overseas base metals front, as of 11:39, LME base metals fell across the board. LME copper fell 0.32%, LME aluminum fell 0.23%, and LME lead fell 0.37%. LME zinc fell 0.45%. LME tin fell 0.24%. LME nickel fell 0.3%. In precious metals, as of 11:39, COMEX gold fell 0.9% and COMEX silver fell 1.16%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold fell 1.94%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 2.36%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 2.21%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 3.33%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping futures contract fell 1.3% to 1,593.5 points. As of 11:39 on August 14, midday quotes for selected futures: Spot and Fundamentals Platinum: On the spot side, mainstream platinum quotations are at a discount of 3-2 yuan/g against the PT2610 contract, accompanied by the clearing of some deeply discounted cargoes and the narrowing of import price spreads... Macro Front China: [PBOC reverse repo operations achieved a net injection of 348 billion yuan on the day and 250.5 billion yuan this week] The PBOC conducted 349 billion yuan of overnight reverse repos and 1 trillion yuan of outright reverse repos today. As 1 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 1 trillion yuan of outright reverse repos matured today, the PBOC made a net injection of 348 billion yuan on the day. This week, the PBOC conducted 18 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos, 349 billion yuan of overnight reverse repos and 1 trillion yuan of outright reverse repos. As 116.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 1 trillion yuan of outright reverse repos matured this week, the PBOC made a net injection of 250.5 billion yuan for the week. (Jin10 Data App) US dollar: As of 11:39, the US dollar index fell 0.07% to 99.89. US July PPI data showed inflation was cooling, and along with falling oil prices, markets further added to bets that the US Fed will not hike rates next month. (Wallstreetcn) US July PPI data came in below expectations, helped by further declines in energy and food costs. The PPI report followed consumer price data—which showed inflation was slowing—further confirming signs that the energy shock from the early days of the war was continuing to fade. However, renewed Middle East tensions raised concerns about stubborn inflation. US Fed officials will also receive additional consumer and producer price data and another labour market report before their next policy decision in mid-September. For now, policymakers need to weigh persistent inflation pressures against the recent slowdown in hiring. Several PPI components are also closely watched by the US Fed because they feed into its preferred inflation measure—the personal consumption expenditures price index. These components released mixed signals. Portfolio management fees posted their largest increase in more than a year, hospital outpatient care costs also rose sharply, while physician services and hospital inpatient care prices were mild. (Jin10 Data App) According to CME FedWatch: at the US Fed's September meeting, the probabilities are no change (65.2%) and a cumulative 25bp hike (34.8%). At the US Fed's October meeting, they are no change (50.1%), a cumulative 25bp hike (41.8%), and a cumulative 50bp hike (8.1%). (Jin10 Data App) Other currencies: Speculative investors are increasingly betting that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise rates again in November, as inflation remains above the central bank’s target. Swap market pricing currently implies around a 45% probability that the RBA will raise rates by 25bp by November, up from 38% before Tuesday’s RBA rate decision. The November 2026 interbank cash rate futures traded on the Australian Securities Exchange derivatives market saw trading activity jump on the day to the highest level in more than three months, signalling increased speculative interest. These bets suggest that the market increasingly doubts that the RBA's tightening cycle is over. Although policymakers kept rates unchanged this week, with inflation still above the RBA's 2%-3% target range, traders will continue to monitor upcoming price and labour market data for clues on whether another rate hike is needed this year. (Jin10 Data App) On the data front: Releases due today include China's July total electricity consumption YoY (TBD), China's July total electricity consumption (TBD), US July retail sales MoM, US August preliminary 1-year inflation expectations, US June business inventories MoM, US August preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, France July CPI MoM final, Eurozone Q2 GDP YoY revised, Eurozone Q2 seasonally adjusted employment QoQ final, Eurozone June seasonally adjusted trade balance, and Canada June wholesale sales MoM, among other data. In addition, China will open a new round of refined oil product price adjustment window (TBD), and the National Energy Administration will release total electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month (TBD). Crude oil: As of 11:39, both crude oil benchmarks edged up, with WTI up 0.09% and Brent up 0.06%. IEA and OPEC successively lowered demand expectations, while Iran-related tensions, though intense, did not escalate further, limiting oil price gains. The refined product market was under more severe pressure, as the US diesel crack spread approached $100 per barrel, near the peak levels seen in the early stages of the US-Iran conflict in March this year. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Tuesday that crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz averaged about 9 million barrels per day over the past week, higher than most industry estimates, leaving considerable uncertainty over the size of the actual supply gap. Francisco Blanch, head of global research at Bank of America, said in a Bloomberg Television interview, “Unless the geopolitical situation improves, it is hard for me to see oil prices pulling back quickly. If inventories are depleted, price fluctuations will inevitably amplify sharply, and demand will be forced to contract.” (Wallstreetcn) Spot Market at a Glance: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM, August 14: Futures extended sharp losses today, while South China spot aluminum was in the doldrums and adjusted only slightly. With prices falling and inventory returning to a destocking path, holders initially tried to sell at firm prices in the morning. However, as bearish sentiment brewed near the weekend and the willingness to cash out early gradually increased, most sellers lowered prices slightly to offer discounts. Mainstream quotations were at discounts of -10 to 0 yuan/mt, supply was relatively ample, and some sellers still held premiums and sold slowly. On the demand side, downstream buyers initially stayed on the sidelines and bought little on expectations of lower prices, then gradually increased restocking at lower prices, though volumes remained limited. In the trade sector, participants mainly pushed for lower prices to absorb discounted cargoes, with only small volumes restocked at firm prices. Amid the supply-demand tug of war, overall trading was moderate. Spot transaction prices were concentrated at premiums of 60-100 yuan/mt over the SHFE aluminum 2608 contract.

Aluminum prices fell repeatedly, and as this coincided with the Friday stockpiling cycle, buying sentiment among downstream processing enterprises in the central China market saw another slight correction from the previous session. However, overall trading atmosphere in the market remained sluggish, suppliers showed weak willingness to hold prices firm, and quotes continued to trend lower. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market were around premiums of -80 to -110 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum September contract.

[Liquidity Tightening Concerns Ease Marginally, Aluminum Prices Stay Under Pressure at Highs in Near Term] Overall, on the macro front, US PPI and core PPI for July both declined YoY, coming in below both expectations and previous readings. Inflationary pressure eased further, and market expectations for a US Fed rate hike in September were scaled back, marginally easing concerns over liquidity tightening. On the fundamentals front, aluminum ingot inventories continued to destock, but destocking was expected to slow down in the second half of the month. The pace of production resumptions at Middle Eastern aluminum smelters was faster than the market had previously expected, and the supply-tightness premium priced in earlier faced pressure to unwind. Although macro recovery and continued destocking in the first half of August supported stronger aluminum prices, market sentiment shifted, and aluminum prices are expected to remain under pressure at high levels in the near term, with upside room likely to be capped to some extent by production resumption expectations.

SMM News, August 13: PV Aluminum Extrusion: This week, the operating rate of surveyed PV aluminum frame enterprises remained stable. Some leading PV frame enterprises reported that their current orders were ample and sufficient to keep production running at high levels until month-end. Downstream, PV module enterprises did not change their procurement strategies because of the recent drift higher in aluminum prices and continued to purchase as needed. According to SMM, frame enterprises had no plans to adjust processing fees in the short term. At the current stage, supply-side and demand-side fundamentals in the industry were relatively balanced, so the operating rate of PV aluminum frame enterprises would continue to run at a steady pace. Raw Material Prices: During the period (August 10-13, 2026), the weekly average SMM A00 aluminum ingot price was 24,145 yuan/mt, up 2.0% from the previous weekly average price. Overall, macro front, the YoY growth rates of US July CPI and core CPI slowed to 3.4% and 2.5%, respectively, both in line with market expectations. The mild pullback in inflation eased concerns about further aggressive rate hikes by the US Fed, weakened the short-term momentum for US Treasury yields to shoot up, and eased macro liquidity pressure. Combined with lingering differences over the Middle East situation, these factors provided staged support for aluminum prices. Fundamentals side, aluminum ingot inventory continued to destock, but destocking was expected to slow down in the second half of the month. Supply side outside China, the UAE's EGA disclosed progress on the resumption of production at the AlTaweelah aluminum smelter. Currently, 18% of the plant's 1,262 electrolysis cells have been restarted, and the pace of the production resumption was faster than the market had previously expected. The previously traded supply tightness premium faced give-back pressure. Although macro recovery and continued destocking supported higher aluminum prices in the first half of August, due to a shift in market sentiment, aluminum prices are expected to be under pressure at high levels in the short term, and upside room will be suppressed to some extent by production resumption expectations. Next week, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract is expected to trade in the range of 23,600-24,450 yuan/mt; LME aluminum is expected to trade in the range of $3,180-3,330/mt. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the progress of production resumptions in the Middle East and developments in new project commissioning plans.

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Mild Pullback in Inflation Eases Macro Anxiety, Production Resumptions Accelerate and Market Sentiment Turns]

SMM, August 13: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals were mostly lower. SHFE copper fell 0.5%, SHFE aluminum fell 0.9%, SHFE lead rose 0.63%, SHFE zinc fell 0.27%, SHFE tin fell 0.86%, and SHFE nickel fell 0.16%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract fell 1.33%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 1.62%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract was flat at 148,840 yuan/mt, the most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.64%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 0.75%. Ferrous metals all fell. Iron ore fell 0.14%, rebar fell 0.5%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.37%, and stainless steel fell 0.93%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 1.27%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 0.73%. Overseas base metals: as of 11:45, LME metals were nearly all lower. LME copper fell 0.2%, LME aluminum fell 0.89%, LME zinc fell 0.4%, LME tin fell 0.18%, LME nickel fell 0.59%, and LME lead rose 0.21%. Precious metals: as of 11:45, COMEX gold rose 0.02%, and COMEX silver fell 0.08%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 0.34%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 0.28%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 0.52%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 0.57%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping futures contract rose 1.75% to 1,630 points. As of 11:45 on August 13, midday quotes for selected futures: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 120 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; and SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 108,250 yuan/mt, down 160 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 108,100 yuan/mt, down 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventories fell for two consecutive days, with arrivals declining and warehouse withdrawals increasing slightly... Macro front China: [China Is Formulating a New Round of Action Plans for Continuous Air Quality Improvement] The State Council Information Office held a themed press conference today (13th) in the series "Opening and Starting the '15th Five-Year Plan'." At the press conference, it was noted that China has made gratifying progress in air pollution control, but there is still no room for complacency or letting up; patience and resolve must be maintained. Currently, a new round of action plans for the continuous improvement of air quality is being expedited, and the battle to keep skies blue will focus on being "higher, more precise, and more scientific." (CCTV News) [Cumulative Trading Volume of the National Carbon Emissions Trading Market Tops 900 Million mt] Huang Runqiu, Minister of Ecology and Environment, said at the "Launching the 15th Five-Year Plan" press conference series held by the State Council Information Office on August 13 that by the end of July, cumulative trading volume in the national carbon emissions trading market had exceeded 930 million mt, effectively promoting the green and low-carbon transition while driving low-cost carbon reduction across industries. (Xinhua News Agency) [Shanghai: Promote Issuance of "Computing Power Vouchers," "Model Vouchers," and "Corpus Vouchers" to Reduce the Cost of Using Digital Factors Such as Public Data, Computing Power, Models, and Corpora] Shanghai issued the "Shanghai Action Plan for Implementing the Several Measures on Further Promoting Private Investment Development." The plan states that Shanghai will provide computing power subsidies in accordance with laws and regulations, support private enterprises in renting intelligent computing resources for the R&D, training, and application of large models, and encourage universities, research institutions, and state-owned enterprises to use data storage and computing power resources built by various market entities, including private enterprises. It will publish and dynamically update the public data opening list, support private enterprises in the in-depth development and scenario-based use of specific public data, and promote the issuance of "computing power vouchers," "model vouchers," and "corpus vouchers" to reduce the cost of using digital factors such as public data, computing power, models, and corpora. It will cultivate benchmark and platform enterprises for urban digital transformation, and guide private enterprises to participate in the construction and scenario operation of digital transformation projects in areas such as transportation, logistics, and public services. It also encourages private enterprises to build demonstration projects of new-type infrastructure such as blockchain applications and large-scale robot applications. (Jin10 Data APP) [PBOC Reverse Repo Operations Post Net Withdrawal of CNY1 Billion on the Day] The PBOC did not conduct reverse repo operations today, as CNY1 billion in 7-day reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of CNY1 billion on the day. On the Dollar Side: As of 11:45, the US dollar index was up 0.01% at 100. US core inflation in July was mild, which likely eased pressure on the US Fed to raise interest rates. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday showed that, excluding volatile food and energy categories, core CPI rose 0.2% MoM in July. The YoY increase was 2.5%, matching the slowest pace since March 2021. Overall, July CPI rose 0.1% MoM and 3.4% YoY. This report indicated that the energy price shock from the Iran war continued to fade in July. As the US Fed discusses whether to raise rates at its September meeting, these figures may give the US Fed more room to weigh inflation pressures against the recent slowdown in hiring. Before the September meeting, policymakers will also see more reports on employment and inflation, while investors will closely watch a speech that Fed Chairman Warsh is expected to deliver at the annual Jackson Hole symposium later this month. US stock index futures rose, while US Treasury yields were basically flat. Investors lowered their bets on a September rate hike. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged by September is 59.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 40.1%. By October, the probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged is 45.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 44.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50bp rate hike is 9.8%. (Jin10 Data App) A CITIC Securities research report said that US July CPI was fully in line with expectations, core inflation remained mild, and second-round inflation effects were modest, which helped further ease market concerns about inflation risks. We continue to believe that US inflation is not sticky, and we expect headline CPI YoY growth to generally continue its mild slowdown trend in Q3 and hit bottom in September, then rebound slightly in Q4 this year and decline rapidly in March next year. We still expect the US Fed to keep rates unchanged for the whole year, and there is further room for downward revision in rate hike expectations priced into derivatives markets. A CICC research report said that US July CPI rose 0.1% MoM on a seasonally adjusted basis and 3.4% YoY, while core CPI rose 0.2% MoM and 2.5% YoY, all in line with market expectations. Energy prices continued to pull back, but international oil prices have risen again since August, increasing uncertainty about future energy prices. On the core inflation front, goods were strong while services were weak; in particular, prices of information technology products such as computers and software continued to rise, reflecting that the supply-demand mismatch caused by AI capital spending expansion is gradually transmitting to the consumer side. We believe US inflation may have entered a new phase, with its drivers gradually shifting from supply shocks such as tariffs and oil prices to demand expansion from AI investment, and the duration of inflation may be correspondingly prolonged. For the US Fed, this data eased near-term pressure to raise rates, but compared with supply-driven inflation, demand-pull inflation requires more attention from policymakers. Other currencies: RBA Assistant Governor Kent said that Australian monetary policy is currently restrictive, the three consecutive rate hikes early this year are now weighing on the economy, and the stronger Australian dollar has further reinforced this effect. He said: "Evidence suggests that monetary policy in Australia is somewhat restrictive, and the tightening earlier this year is working. Borrowing costs have risen, mortgage repayments have increased, conditions in the established housing market have weakened, and the Australian dollar has also appreciated year-to-date." He said aggregate demand growth appears to be slowing, adding that this is what policymakers want to see and is necessary to bring inflation back to target. (Jin10 Data APP) Data Front: Today will bring the US 10-year Treasury auction high yield and bid-to-cover ratio for Aug 12, US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 8, US July PPI y/y and m/m, UK Q2 GDP y/y preliminary, UK June three-month GDP m/m, UK June manufacturing production m/m, UK June seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, UK June industrial production m/m, and Eurozone June industrial production m/m, among others. In addition, JD.com will hold its Q2 earnings call; 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hammack will speak, and 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin will speak on the economic outlook. Crude Oil: As of 11:45, both benchmark oil prices fell, with WTI down 0.96% and Brent down 0.82%. Oil prices edged down as traders waited for signs of progress on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. On the Middle East front, there has been almost no sign of progress on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. US President Trump said the United States has "complete control" over the waterway. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said that as the US-Iran war continues, the global oil market faces a supply shortfall of 1.8 million barrels per day this quarter, more than double its earlier forecast; the 2026 oil supply gap could reach its largest level in five years. According to the American Automobile Association, gasoline and diesel prices in the US have never been this high at this time of year. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market at a Glance: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM, August 13: In early trading, the SHFE aluminum 2608 contract moved lower from yesterday's center; market buying sentiment improved further, and trading among traders was relatively active. Today, SHFE aluminum spot premiums were mainly traded between parity against the August contract and August contract +10 yuan/mt, while market transactions against the September contract were at discounts of 30 yuan/mt to 20 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipment sentiment index was 3.18, up 0.01 day on day; the purchase sentiment index was 3.30, up 0.04 day on day. Aluminum futures pulled back somewhat; today, downstream processing enterprises in the central China market showed a slight recovery in purchase willingness, and overall market trading volume recovered. Large traders remained notably willing to hold prices firm and hold back from selling, and the price difference between large and small traders' quotes was wide. In the end, actual transaction prices in the central China market were in a range of discounts of 110-150 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum September contract. Today, the central China market shipment sentiment index was 3.06, down 0.03 day on day; the purchase sentiment index was 2.95, down 0.02 day on day. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventories in major consuming regions rose by 3,000 mt day on day today, with only Gongyi showing destocking.

SMM, August 13: Futures turned sharply lower today, while the South China spot market remained weak. Inventory accumulated again after four months, somewhat dampening expectations for the market outlook, and bearish sentiment gradually emerged. With both absolute prices and the spot-futures price spread weakening, holders briefly tried to hold prices firm but failed, then generally cut prices and sold more to cash out promptly. Mainstream quotations were at discounts of 20 yuan/mt to parity, and the glut in circulation was no different from that during yesterday’s sharp rally. Demand side, downstream buyers gradually bought on dips while standing on the sidelines, though buying interest was not high. Traders still bought less and sold more, with only as-needed purchases, which created a clear drag. Both supply and demand were weak, and overall transactions were poor. Spot transaction prices were concentrated at premiums of 65 yuan/mt to 105 yuan/mt over the SHFE aluminum 2608 contract.