The final March S&P Global services PMI released by the US came in at 49.8, a reading that was not only below the preliminary 51.1, but also marked the first contraction since January 2023. During this period, growth in new orders fell to its lowest point in nearly two years, while export trade conditions deteriorated further compared with February. Meanwhile, the final composite PMI was confirmed at 50.3, significantly below the preliminary 51.4 and the lowest level since September 2023.

HRC futures consolidated at highs today, with the most-traded contract closing at 3,302, down 0.36% for the day. Spot market, prices in most major markets were largely stable. In terms of supply, production resumed in North China, and HRC production rebounded by 30,700 mt WoW this week, with further increases expected later. Demand side, end-users made normal purchases after the holiday, gradually rising to seasonal levels. In terms of raw materials, ongoing disruptions outside China continued to support costs. Overall, HRC remained in a pattern of simultaneous recovery in both supply and demand in the short term. Social inventory fell by 36,300 mt WoW this week, and total inventory also reached an inflection point, in line ....

HRC futures retreated after a rapid rise today, with the most-traded contract closing at 3,313, up 0.21 for the day. In the spot market, prices in most major markets were generally stable with slight fall. Trading was moderate in the morning session, then weakened afterward. In terms of supply, as the Two Sessions ended, production resumed in north China, and the impact from hot-rolled maintenance declined. The impact from hot-rolled maintenance was 314,900 mt this week, down 99,000 mt WoW. The impact from hot-rolled maintenance next week will be 8.06 mt, down 234,300 mt from this week, and pressure on hot-rolled supply gradually rebounded. On the demand side, end-users resumed normal procurement after the holiday, gradually increasing to seasonal levels. On the raw ....

The latest data from the General Administration of Customs showed that in February 2026, China exported 4.63 million mt of steel sheets & plates, down 12.6% YoY; cumulative exports for January and February totaled 9.33 million mt, down 14.5% YoY. In February, China exported 1.19 million mt of steel bars, down 7.7% YoY; cumulative exports for January and February totaled 2.32 million mt, down 5.9% YoY.

Iran’s threat to drive oil prices up to $200 a barrel may sound like hyperbole, but as the energy crisis persisted, that outcome already looked more likely than US President Trump’s prediction that oil prices would soon pull back to pre-war levels… The conflict involving Israel and the US against Iran entered its third week — and escalated into one spanning the entire Middle East — yet the global oil benchmark’s response so far was surprisingly “mediocre.” Brent crude oil was currently trading near $100 a barrel, up about 65 from the start of the year. Although that level would have been unimaginable just a few weeks ago, it still remained below last Monday’s brief peak of nearly $120. Given that since the conflict began, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz had trapped about one-fifth of global oil supply — roughly 20 million barrels a day — crude oil prices should, in theory, have been much higher. That seemed to suggest investors still retained a degree of trust in Trump , betting that the crisis would be resolved quickly and that the Strait of Hormuz would soon reopen — whether it was called the “Trump put,” the “TACO trade,” or “buy Trump,” many oil traders appeared to be wagering that the president would ultimately be able to limit the market damage. “When this is over, oil prices will come down very, very quickly,” Trump said on Monday this week. Yet that optimism looked increasingly difficult to reconcile with realities on the ground — whether on a battlefield where the conflict was intensifying, or in the physical oil market, where supply bottlenecks were steadily spreading. Signals Being Overlooked In fact, the physical crude oil market was sending an increasing number of stress signals, even though the international benchmark “paper oil” market had so far largely ignored them. Although trade had stalled under the impact of the Iran conflict, Middle Eastern crude benchmarks still surged to record highs, making them the most expensive crude in the world. The spike in these benchmark indicators, which are used to price millions of barrels of Middle Eastern crude sold to Asia, was raising costs for Asian refiners and forcing them to seek alternatives or make further production cuts in the coming months. S&P Global Platts said Dubai spot crude assessments for May-loading cargoes hit a record $157.66 a barrel on Tuesday, surpassing the previous all-time high of $147.5 set by Brent crude oil futures in 2008. That left Dubai crude’s premium to swaps at $60.82 a barrel, compared with an average premium of just 90¢ in February. Meanwhile, Oman crude oil futures hit a record high of $152.58 per barrel on Tuesday, with its premium to the Dubai swap set at $55.74 per barrel, versus an average premium of just 75¢ in February. Oman crude oil is exported from a terminal outside the Strait of Hormuz. This surge reflected massive uncertainty over actually available supply in the Middle East after Iran repeatedly attacked Oman's oil terminal and the UAE's major oil export terminal of Fujairah outside the Strait of Hormuz. Are Brent and WTI Failing to Reflect the "True Severity" of the Oil Market? As JPMorgan's head of commodities, Natasha Kaneva, pointed out in her latest research note on Tuesday , there was a clear mismatch between international benchmark crude pricing and the Middle Eastern geography of the supply disruptions. The core issue was that Brent and WTI are benchmark indicators at opposite ends of the Atlantic basin, while the current shock is concentrated in the Middle East. As a result, these benchmark crude prices were particularly influenced by relatively loose regional fundamentals—commercial oil inventory in both the US and Europe were ample in early 2026, and supply across the Atlantic basin was also relatively abundant in the short term. In addition, expectations for a release from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)—as well as a partial release that will soon materialize—further eased prompt tightness in Brent- and WTI-linked markets. By contrast, Middle Eastern crude benchmarks such as Dubai and Oman more accurately reflected the current dislocation in the physical market. Dubai and Oman spot prices were both trading above $150 per barrel, underscoring the severity of crude oil shortages originating in the Gulf region. These Middle Eastern oil prices were directly affected by export disruptions and therefore more effectively reflected marginal supply deficits than Atlantic-linked crude prices. Crucially, trade geography intensified this dynamic. Most of the crude transported via the Strait of Hormuz goes to Asia—before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, about 11.2 million barrels of crude and 1.4 million barrels of refined products flowed through the strait to Asia each day. As a result, the direct physical shortage—and the surge in oil prices—was concentrated in Asian markets most dependent on Gulf crude. In fact, early signs of demand destruction had already emerged in Asia as product prices surged and spot crude became prohibitively expensive. JPMorgan noted that timing effects further reinforced this divergence. A typical voyage from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to Asia takes about 10 to 15 days, while cargoes bound for Europe via the Suez Canal require nearly 25 to 30 days, or 35 to 45 days if rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope. Therefore, the impact of disrupted Gulf flows would hit Asian markets sooner and more severely, while Atlantic Basin benchmarks such as Brent and WTI would enjoy a longer buffer because of surplus inventory and slower supply adjustments. The US, with crude oil production exceeding 13 million barrels per day, would be affected the least. JPMorgan believed that, in this context, the apparent price stability shown by Brent and WTI should not be taken as evidence of adequate global supply. It reflected a temporary buffer created by regional surplus inventory, benchmark composition, and policy intervention. In fact, for refiners, especially those in Asia, the current crude oil shortage had already become a serious problem. About 60% of the region’s crude oil imports depended on the Middle East, and the difficulty of finding alternative, timely supplies was rapidly becoming acute. The pressure had already forced many countries into painful adjustments. Refiners across Asia had begun cutting run rates to conserve dwindling inventory. Some countries had banned exports of refined products, a defensive move that could further tighten the global market. As the crude oil shortage worsened, refined product prices surged. Asian jet fuel prices were approaching $200 a barrel, near the record high of about $220 reached earlier this month. The Crisis Could Spread Further Ultimately, this crisis was expected to extend beyond Asia. Data from analytics firm Kpler showed that Europe accounted for about three-quarters of Middle Eastern jet fuel exports shipped through the Strait of Hormuz last year—about 379,000 barrels per day—but since the conflict began, no such cargoes had passed through the strait. Unsurprisingly, jet fuel barge prices in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp refining hub had surged to a record $190 a barrel, exceeding the previous peak set after the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022. The comparison with the Russia-Ukraine crisis may be even more compelling. Before the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, Russia supplied about 30% of Europe’s crude oil imports and one-third of its refined product imports. As traders feared Europe would lose supplies from one of the world’s largest oil producers, Brent crude rose to $130 a barrel after the Russia-Ukraine conflict—even though that worst-case scenario never fully materialized in the end. By contrast, according to Morgan Stanley, the physical disruption caused by the Iran conflict had already exceeded that level of concern by more than threefold. Even if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen immediately, it would not bring immediate relief. According to the International Energy Agency, about 10 million barrels per day of production in the Middle East has been shut in since the conflict began. Restoring these flows will take weeks, if not months. To be sure, the oil market entered the Iran conflict in a relatively loose state, and the International Energy Agency had projected that global supply would exceed demand by about 3.7 million barrels per day. But that surplus has now been erased by the current turmoil. Last week, the International Energy Agency announced plans to release a record 400 million barrels from member countries' strategic petroleum reserves, which will help cushion the initial shock. But drawing down inventories cannot substitute for deliveries of new oil. In other words, the supply shock to the oil market is real and may persist. Once the Strait of Hormuz finally reopens, oil prices could initially plunge in a relief rebound, but given the harsh realities of the physical market, traders may need to think twice before betting that the return to normalcy promised by Trump is about to arrive…

A review of the data showed that auto production and sales in China remained at low levels, while exports stayed resilient. Excavators retreated from highs, and overall downstream performance was moderate. In terms of supply, HRC production was expected to rebound this week, but the pressure remained moderate. On exports, freight rates surged rapidly due to geopolitical conflicts, and most clients outside China stayed on the sidelines. Exporters in China reported mediocre order-taking for sheets & plates. Overall, HRC fundamentals were relatively stable in the short term, and prices would still mainly move sideways with the cost side.

This week, ferrous metals rebounded from the bottom. At the start of the week, coking coal and coke led the futures higher, mainly driven by rising crude oil prices in the overseas market, which pushed the energy and chemicals sector stronger accordingly; mid-week, both the U.S. and Iran signaled a more relaxed stance toward war, easing geopolitical tensions, while coal prices fell in tandem, weakening the cost-side logic, and ferrous metals fluctuated at highs; in the latter half of the week, worsening short-term liquidity issues in BHP's iron ore port inventory triggered stronger iron ore prices in the overseas market, while the Middle East situation remained volatile, reinforcing cost support and pushing ferrous metals higher again. In the spot market, supported by futures, end-user and arbitrage purchase sentiment both improved WoW this week......

This week, hot-rolled coil fluctuated higher, with the most-traded contract closing at 3,295 on Friday, up 0.52% on the day. In the spot market, weekly prices were raised by 30-70 yuan/mt, and transactions improved somewhat WoW. Looking ahead, sheets & plates fundamentals are unlikely to offer much narrative room, while cost support will play a more dominant role. Before there is any clear pickup in domestic and overseas demand for hot-rolled coil, prices are likely to continue to hold up well in the short term in line with cost trends. The most-traded contract is expected to fluctuate in a range of around 3,250-3,330.

On the 12th, China’s export prices for sheets & plates rose by $1-2/mt.

[Information on Angang and Bensteel Group's Product Price Policy Adjustments for April 2026] Angang's product price policy for April 2026 was adjusted as follows based on the product price policy for March 2026: 1. Hot-rolled: raised by 200 yuan/mt. 2. Pickling: raised by 200 yuan/mt. 3. Cold-rolled: raised by 200 yuan/mt. Automotive steel was raised by 200 yuan/mt. In addition, Angangshen high-strength wire in the 590 MPa, 780 MPa, 980 MPa, and 1180 MPa grades was raised by 200 yuan/mt. 4. Cold-hard: raised by 200 yuan/mt. 5. Galvanizing: raised by 200 yuan/mt. 6. Non-oriented silicon steel: raised by 200 yuan/mt. 7. Color-coated: raised by 100 yuan/mt. 8. Medium-thickness plates: raised by 200 yuan/mt. 9. Wire rod: raised by 200 yuan/mt. 10. Rebar: raised by 200 yuan/mt. 11. Alloy surcharge: please refer to the price list for details. Angang Co., Ltd. Marketing Center Mar 2026 Bensteel Group's product price policy for April 2026 was adjusted as follows based on the product price policy for March 2026: 1. Hot-rolled: raised by 200 yuan/mt. 2. Pickling: raised by 200 yuan/mt. 3. Cold-rolled: raised by 200 yuan/mt. Automotive steel was raised by 200 yuan/mt. 4. Cold-hard: raised by 200 yuan/mt. 5. Galvanizing: raised by 200 yuan/mt. 6. Electrogalvanization: raised by 200 yuan/mt. 7. Non-oriented silicon steel: raised by 200 yuan/mt. 8. Wire rod: raised by 200 yuan/mt. 9. Rebar: raised by 200 yuan/mt. 10. Special steel: raised by 200 yuan/mt. 11. Alloy surcharge: please refer to the price list for details. Bensteel Group Sheets & Plates Marketing Center, Beiying Operation Center Mar 2026