Platinum prices fell sharply today. Escalating US-Iran and Russia-Ukraine conflicts triggered a continued surge in oil prices, with international crude settling significantly higher, fueling market expectations for a September rate hike. Precious metals futures remained under pressure from interest rate headwinds, and market sentiment was repeatedly pulled back and forth. In early trading, the most-traded PT2610 platinum futures contract on the GFEX settled at 391.65 yuan/g, down 4.94%, while the inverted spread between the best ask price for Pt9995 on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the GFEX PT2610 contract widened to around 6 yuan/g. Spot side, mainstream quotations for platinum were from parity to a premium of 1 yuan/g against the PT2608 contract. As the futures market plunged during the day, the premium in mainstream quotations rose compared to the previous trading day. Warrant quotations from suppliers’ warehouses were mainly at a small premium against the GFEX August contract. Spot transactions tended to be near parity against the August contract. Some traders followed opportunities from the price spread between futures contracts to inquire about taking delivery of warrants, while downstream buyers negotiated prices and purchased based on their orders. Overall, platinum spot market consumption was normal today.

This week, platinum and palladium swung wildly, initially falling before rebounding and closing higher. Early in the week, they were dragged lower by the Fed’s hawkish stance and US-Iran tensions, then after hitting bottom on the 20th, buying emerged to fuel a rebound. On the GFEX, platinum closed at 409.35 yuan/g and palladium at 310.80 yuan/g. Spot premiums dipped slightly amid subdued demand. Looking ahead, easing hawkishness could open a window for a rebound, but upside remains capped by unrevised rate hike expectations, geopolitically stoked inflation, and liquidity tightening triggered by AI adjustments. Attention on the late-July FOMC and US-Iran situation.

On July 15, 2026, Ukrainian pellet producer Ferrexpo released its production report and trading update for Q2 2026. The report shows: Production: Total iron ore production in Q2 2026 was 963,000 mt , up 63% QoQ but down 24% YoY. Of this, pellet production was 860,000 mt, up 64% QoQ and 5% YoY; iron ore concentrates (Fe 67%) production was 103,000 mt, up 52% QoQ but down 77% YoY. Within pellet products, direct reduction (DR) grade pellet (Fe 67%) production was 163,000 mt; high-grade pellet (Fe 65%) production was 697,000 mt, up 33% QoQ but down 15% YoY. The 63% QoQ increase in total iron ore production in Q2 was mainly because production had largely been suspended in Q1 due to attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, and stabilized production resumed in Q2. However, affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, logistics disruptions, and other factors, the group currently still operates only one pellet production line. The company stated that in Q2, it improved its sales mix by exporting DR-grade pellets, and continued to manage client distribution and product mix under constrained conditions. Meanwhile, the group still faces operational pressures from the regional conflict, logistics restrictions, labor shortages, and the suspension of VAT refunds, and continues to protect working capital through cost-cutting, procurement controls, and the suspension of non-essential capital expenditures. Future plans : Ferrexpo stated that the board sees equity financing as the most feasible option at present, with a minimum fundraising target of $100 million, to support working capital, near-term operational needs, production ramp-up, and previously deferred stripping, mining, and capital expenditures. Based on current productivity, energy price forecasts, and the optimized sales mix, the group expects that its available net cash can support operations under current constrained conditions until early Q4 2026.

This week, iron ore futures consolidated and strengthened. The DCE most-traded contract I2609 closed at 744.5 yuan/mt on Monday, and from Tuesday drifted higher, breaking through the 760 yuan/mt level. The core driver of this round of price strength came more from news-driven disruptions, while fundamental support was relatively limited. On the supply side, the strike at BHP's Port Hedland proceeded as planned, with port shipments suspended for about 8 hours, which is expected to reduce Australia's shipments this week by about 2 million mt. Meanwhile, long-term contract negotiations remained unresolved, SSF port spot cargo pick-up was restricted, and the market circulation of low-grade ore contracted notably, intermittently intensifying supply tightness expectations for certain products. On the demand side, however, performance remained weak. Affected by increased blast furnace maintenance, hot metal output continued to decline, and overall iron ore demand kept weakening, capping the upside room for prices. Chart: MMI 61% Port Spot Index Source: SMM This week, China's iron ore concentrate prices edged up marginally. By region, prices in Tangshan, Qian'an, and Qianxi in Hebei edged up by 1-5 yuan/mt; Chaoyang, Beipiao, and Jianping in western Liaoning raised by 1-5 yuan/mt; east China also saw gains of 1-2 yuan/mt. Iron ore concentrate prices in the Tangshan area of Hebei were relatively stable, with 66% grade dry basis EXW prices including tax at 980-985 yuan/mt; the local area was less affected by rainfall, and production mostly continued as planned. The Chengde area was hit by heavy rainfall, and most mining and beneficiation plants suspended production and shipments—especially in Kuancheng, where the disaster was severe, and overall spot circulation was largely halted. At present, only a few producers in less rain-affected areas could maintain normal operations. Iron ore concentrate supply was also relatively tight in other regions. This week, China's iron ore concentrate prices edged up slightly. Chart: Imported Ore Prices Strengthened, Domestic-Imported Ore Price Spread Narrowed Slightly Outlook for Next Week Imported Ore: Looking ahead to next week, Tangshan's environmental protection-driven production restrictions have been gradually launched since mid-to-late July, but so far the actual impact on blast furnaces and rolling lines has been relatively limited. If restrictions tighten further next week, some steel mills could arrange temporary blast furnace maintenance, in which case hot metal output would have further room to decline, and iron ore demand may remain under pressure. However, there is still some support from the supply side and cost side. On the one hand, the SSF port restriction has not eased yet, and low-grade ore circulation remains tight. On the other hand, against the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Ukrainian concentrate supply continues to shrink; coupled with recurring US-Iran geopolitical tensions, these have intermittently lifted the cost floor for iron ore. Overall, the downside room for iron ore prices is limited in the short term, and prices are expected to continue moving sideways within a range. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the enforcement of environmental protection-driven production restrictions, marginal changes in hot metal output, and further disruptions from geopolitical factors to raw material supply. Domestic Ore: Looking ahead to next week, domestic iron ore concentrate supply is estimated to remain tight. On the demand side, however, hot metal output at local steel mills is expected to decline, and there is a relatively strong desire to push for lower prices for domestic iron ore concentrates. Nevertheless, market sentiment is clearly in favor of sellers at present and local iron ore concentrate prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the near term.

Today, iron ore futures moved sideways. The most-traded DCE contract I2609 closed at 759.5 yuan/mt, unchanged from yesterday. Qingdao port spot prices fell 2-5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Traders sold in line with market conditions, steel mills' purchase willingness improved, and market trading sentiment was better than yesterday. Specifically, the transaction price for PB fines at Rizhao Port was 708 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, on July 16, total inventory across 10 ports tracked by SMM stood at 106.27 million mt, down 1.87 million mt WoW, with destocking in coarse fines, concentrates, and pellets, while lump ore saw slight inventory buildup. This indicates that overall demand for iron ore remains resilient. Although market talks about environmental protection-driven production restrictions in Tangshan have already started, they have not affected hot metal output, and iron ore's own fundamentals are relatively stable. However, given expectations of reduced Ukrainian concentrate supplies due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and with the July Politburo meeting approaching, market expectations for H2 policies are strong. As a result, ore prices may see a short-term rebound.

Platinum and palladium prices drifted higher this week and ended the week higher, driven by expectations of US Fed policy, the US-Iran geopolitical situation, and US CPI data. Looking ahead, inflationary headwinds have eased somewhat, but policy and geopolitical uncertainties remain. In the spot market, traders were active in purchasing due to opportunities in the price spread between futures contracts, while downstream consumption remained weak, and premiums were relatively stable.

[SMM Zinc Morning Meeting Summary: Market Demand Worries Resurface, LME Zinc Retreats from Highs] Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,590.5/mt, briefly rose after the open to touch a high of $3,614/mt, then continuously pulled back from highs, hitting a low of $3,542.5/mt near the end of the session, and finally closed down at $3,551.5/mt, falling $27.5/mt, down 0.77%.··.

[7.8 Morning Meeting Minutes] US President Trump stated on the Ukraine issue that he was in consultations with Russian President Putin to see if the Russia-Ukraine conflict could be ended. Trump said they had a "very good call." The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2609) edged higher early before pulling back to close the morning session at 126,290 yuan/mt, down 0.03%. July is within the submission window for Indonesia's nickel ore RKAB, and the final approval outcome will determine the supply-demand pattern for H2, making it the most critical uncertain variable at present. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to remain in the doldrums within the 125,000-135,000 yuan/mt range.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Rate Hike Expectations Resurface, LME Zinc Falls Under Pressure] Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,581.5/mt. Early in the session, a tug-of-war between longs and shorts saw LME zinc consolidate at highs. Subsequently, during the European trading hours, bulls entered the market, driving the price up to touch a high of $3,600/mt. Then, bears added positions, causing LME zinc to quickly fall to a low of $3,553.5/mt. Afterwards, it consolidated. Finally, it closed down at $3,571/mt, down $8/mt or 0.22%. Trading volume dropped to 11,201 lots, and open interest increased by 1,200 lots to 271,000 lots.

SMM Nickel July 7 News: Macro and Market News: (1) US Fed Governor Waller: Forward guidance is not better with more; it can be completely omitted when necessary. Inflation risks have surpassed employment risks. (2) US President Trump, on the Ukraine issue, said he was in consultations with Russian President Putin to see if the Russia-Ukraine conflict could be ended. Trump said they had a "very good call." Spot Market: On July 7, the SMM #1 refined nickel price rose 300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 2,300 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day, while the domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel ranged from -400 to 400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract pulled back after a slight surge in the morning session, and as of the morning close, it reported at 126,290 yuan/mt, down 0.03%. July falls within the Indonesian nickel ore RKAB application window. The final approval outcome will determine the H2 supply-demand pattern, making it the most critical uncertainty at present. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to be in the doldrums in the 125,000-135,000 yuan/mt range.