[SMM Aluminum Express News] Vietnam and Russia have signed an agreement in Moscow to develop Vietnam’s first nuclear power plant following talks between Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh and Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin. The project includes two nuclear plants with a combined capacity of 400MW in former Ninh Thuan province (now Khanh Hoa), marking a major step in Vietnam’s long-term energy diversification strategy. The agreement is expected to strengthen cooperation in high technology, research, and industrial development, while supporting Vietnam’s rapidly rising electricity demand. The Government estimates that power consumption will increase by 12-13percent in 2025 and reach 1,200 billion kWh by 2045

Russia’s MMC Norilsk Nickel PJSC is betting on artificial intelligence as part of a $100 million push to find additional uses for palladium as electric vehicles erode the metal’s main source of demand.Nornickel, the world’s biggest palladium producer, aims to create 1.7 million ounces of new annual consumption for the metal. That’s equivalent to almost a fifth of existing demand.

On Tuesday, Eastern Time, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee warned that the energy shock stemming from the Middle East conflict is threatening the US Fed’s dual mandate, complicating its monetary policy outlook and potentially delaying interest rate cuts—echoing earlier remarks by Fed Governor Barr that inflation risks and oil prices support keeping rates unchanged for longer. Specifically, the energy price shock poses risks to both sides of the US Fed’s dual mandate, making the trade-off between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth more complex. “The new shock has undoubtedly disrupted the US Fed’s plans... and inflation was already uncomfortably high even before the shock occurred,” Goolsbee said bluntly. Goolsbee noted that central bank policymakers around the world lack clear historical experience to draw on in dealing with the current mix of geopolitical risks and inflationary pressures, and therefore “this is a bad situation for central banks.” Goolsbee stressed that the current path of interest rates at central banks around the world still depends heavily on how the conflict evolves, especially its impact on energy markets. As for the US Fed, he said he is not yet able to judge whether it will be able to cut interest rates again, because that outlook depends on the duration of the conflict and the extent to which rising oil prices affect overall inflation. “Only if inflation shows improvement can one realistically expect rates to fall this year,” he added, further reinforcing the US Fed’s data-dependent stance. The US Fed’s Internal Stance Is Turning More Cautious These remarks by Goolsbee were highly consistent with earlier comments by Fed Governor Michael Barr. Barr had previously also emphasized that, given that US inflation remains above target and elevated oil prices are further pushing up inflation, interest rates may need to remain unchanged “for some time.” In addition, Barr likewise pointed out that although the US labour market appears to be stabilizing, US Fed officials need to see clear evidence of sustained disinflation before considering interest rate cuts. Taken together, these comments highlight the US Fed’s increasingly cautious shift in stance. As geopolitical developments exert a growing influence on the US inflation outlook, the combination of persistent price pressures and external shocks has reinforced expectations that high inflation will last longer, while also creating uncertainty over the feasibility of further policy easing in the near term. For markets, the key point is that after the Russia-Ukraine shock several years ago, energy-driven inflation risks have now been firmly incorporated into the US Fed’s reaction function. As a result, US Fed rate expectations may remain sensitive not only to economic data, but also to developments in the Middle East conflict and their impact on oil prices.

SMM Flash: Overall, steel export quotations saw relatively small increases today, with most order shipment schedules concentrated in May and June. Recently, as international crude oil prices continued to rise, ocean freight rates increased sharply, and most traders' CIF quotations were too high to secure deals. Meanwhile, according to an SMM survey, taking the Vietnamese market as an example, the CIF prices of supplies from India, Russia, and other sources also rose significantly, and their advantage over local supplies was no longer prominent, resulting in low market acceptance.

Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Iran tensions are driving up aluminum prices and premiums. Aluminium Bahrain and Qatalum have cut output, while feedstock is tight. Rerouting via Port of Sohar or Saudi ports raises costs and delays. Buyers are turning to China, India, Russia, Canada, and scrap to offset risk. Prolonged disruption could reduce Middle East market share and reprice it as higher-risk supply.

According to the latest data disclosed by the General Administration of Customs, China’s imported copper cathode market, while maintaining the 2025 baseline, is facing dual challenges: the continued rise in the share of EQ copper and whether global supply will continue to be diverted. China’s cumulative copper cathode imports in January-February 2026 totaled 356,900 mt, down 33.13% YoY.

[SMM Analysis]Analysis of Import and Export Data for Unwrought Aluminum Alloy, January-February 2026

Data released by the online customs statistics query platform showed that China’s refined tin imports were 1,101.12 mt in January 2026, down 28.86% MoM and down 52.82% YoY. Indonesia was the largest origin, with refined tin imports from Indonesia at 613.8 mt that month, down 3.53% MoM and down 66.36% YoY. Russia was the second-largest origin, with refined tin imports from Russia at 158.06 mt that month, up 691.52% MoM. Below is a breakdown of China’s refined tin imports in January 2026 compiled based on data from the official website of the General Administration of Customs: Source: General Administration of Customs Note: 1. Refined tin includes unwrought non-alloy tin (refined tin). 2. The total imports (total) also include data for certain origins not listed in the table above. (Wenhua Composite)

According to customs data, lead concentrate imports in February 2026 were 124,580 mt in physical content, up 3.8% MoM and up 26.4% YoY; cumulative imports in January-February reached 252,241 mt in physical content, up 14% YoY on a cumulative basis. Over the same period, silver concentrate imports were about 148,600 mt in physical content, down 17% MoM and down 8% YoY; cumulative imports in January-February were 328,600 mt in physical content, down 1.27% YoY on a cumulative basis.

According to the latest customs data, China imported 594,800 mt of zinc concentrates (mt in physical content) in January 2026, setting a new monthly record high. Zinc concentrate imports were 413,900 mt (mt in physical content) in February, bringing cumulative imports in January-February to 1.0088 million mt (mt in physical content), up 17.5% YoY. .