Overall, cost support remained strong, supply tightened while demand stayed stable. As tender prices became clear, aluminum fluoride prices were generally raised by around 800 yuan/mt in line with the guidance. Going forward, close attention should be paid to dynamic changes in raw material costs and adjustments in downstream procurement pace.

[SMM Nickel Flash News] Based on the cash cost of high-grade NPI calculated using nickel ore prices from 25 days earlier, profits at high-grade NPI smelters came under pressure during the week, with the sector as a whole remaining in a state of losses or marginal profitability. It is expected that next week, prices of auxiliary materials on the raw material side may remain flat, while the decline in nickel ore prices will likely be limited. High-grade NPI prices will still be under pressure amid back-and-forth negotiations between upstream and downstream, and smelter profits will be unlikely to see any significant improvement.

This week, ferrous metals were in the doldrums. The main logic during the week remained weakening cost support. On Tuesday, Iran proposed charging transit fees for the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump made conciliatory remarks, saying that “even if the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed, he would still be willing to end military action against Iran.” Market expectations for tighter crude oil supply weakened, and declines in the energy sector dragged down the coal sector, weakening the cost-side logic. During the week, inventories of the five major steel products continued to decline, but apparent demand remained at a low level for the same period in previous years, providing limited fundamental-driven momentum to futures. In the spot market, purchasing interest was average, mainly focused on restocking at low prices. Spot prices were relatively firm, and the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat......

On April 2, 2026, the White House ushered US steel trade policy into "Version 2.0." This strategic shift goes beyond simple tariff hikes. It uses full-value taxation and melt-and-pour traceability to block low-end imported raw materials, while applying structural tariff reductions to finished products to ease manufacturing inflation. Ultimately, this two-pronged approach aims to forcibly bring the global supply chain back to domestic US steel production.

[SMM Chrome Weekly Review: Weak Demand Performance, Market Remained in the Doldrums] News on April 3, 2026: The ferrochrome and chrome ore markets saw limited fluctuations...

This week (March 27-April 2, 2026), the average operating rate of primary lead smelters in the three provinces was 62.05%, down 0.76 percentage points WoW from the previous week. This week, after a small-to-medium-sized smelter in Henan suspended production for maintenance, production in the region recorded a MoM decline, and the operating rate in Henan continued its downward trend. Operating activity in Hunan remained stable this week, while in Yunnan, one smelter cut production due to maintenance and another slightly increased output after resuming from maintenance, resulting in a slight decline in the operating rate in Yunnan this week. In addition, some small smelters in Yunnan and Hunan still had no expectations for resumption due to factors such as raw materials and downstream orders, while a smelter in Yunnan that had previously delayed maintenance is expected to resume production next week.

This week, stainless steel spot prices fell slightly more than production costs, further worsening the inversion between stainless steel mill prices and costs. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, based on raw material prices on the day, the full cost profit margin was -1.19% this week; calculated based on raw material inventory costs, the margin was -0.55%. Nickel-series raw material costs, high-grade NPI prices remained in the doldrums this week. Although nickel ore prices are currently holding firm and NPI traders are broadly bullish, SHFE nickel futures have been weak recently, while downstream stainless steel prices have struggled to rise. Stainless steel mills themselves are under heavy cost pressure and have shown low acceptance of high-priced raw materials, resulting in sparse market transactions recently; affected by this, high-grade NPI traders have faced considerable transaction pressure, and the price center edged lower slightly. As of this Friday, high-grade NPI with a grade of 10-12% fell by 2 yuan per nickel unit to 1,081.5 yuan/nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap market, stainless steel scrap prices were stable this week, and the decline in finished stainless steel prices did not transmit to the steel scrap market, while prices of substitute furnace charge also remained stable. Tightness in tax invoices eased, the economic advantage of steel scrap became more evident, and high stainless steel mill production schedules drove higher consumption, lifting market transactions and easing inventory pressure. However, finished product prices struggled to rise, limiting upside room for steel scrap prices, which are expected to remain stable in the short term. As of this Friday, the price of 304 off-cuts in Shanghai rose by 100 yuan/mt, with the latest quote at around 10,150 yuan/mt. Chrome-series raw material costs, high-carbon ferrochrome prices dropped back slightly this week. Although some ferrochrome producers recently reported maintenance and production cuts, and stainless steel production schedules for April remained high, leaving retail spot supply in the ferrochrome market relatively tight, stainless steel mills had built relatively ample ferrochrome raw material inventories earlier. Meanwhile, high port inventories of chrome ore recently caused some loosening in chrome ore spot prices. In addition, ferrochrome capacity has already reached a high level, the rainy season in south China is approaching, and ferrochrome producers outside China are resuming production. With ferrochrome producers lacking confidence in the outlook, ferrochrome prices still faced some downward pressure. As of this Friday, high-carbon ferrochrome prices in Inner Mongolia fell 25 yuan/mt (50% metal content) WoW to 8,625 yuan/mt (50% metal content).

[SMM Steel] Nucor expects Q1 2026 earnings to increase modestly versus Q4 2025, with the Steel Mills division seeing the largest improvement. The company also anticipates better performance in its raw materials segment, while steel products earnings are expected to remain broadly stable. Pricing pressure continues to challenge North American producers, indicating profitability is increasingly driven by pricing discipline and value-added product mix.

[Environmental Protection in Northern China Affected Galvanizing Operating Rates]: This week, the operating rate of the galvanizing industry was 58.75, down 0.13 percentage points WoW. Raw material side, zinc prices fluctuated at highs this week, and galvanising enterprises mainly digested inventories, but with only small volumes of earlier price-fixed purchases and long-term contracts, zinc ingot inventories at galvanising enterprises edged down. The operating rate declined this week, mainly due to environmental protection-driven production restrictions in some northern regions, which affected operations.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Fluctuated Upward, Spot Stainless Steel Trading Sluggish Ahead of Qingming Festival SMM News on April 3: SS futures showed an upward fluctuation trend. SHFE nickel drove SS futures to stop falling and strengthen, closing at 14,235 yuan/mt as of the midday close. Spot market, although SS futures stopped falling and rebounded, the overall gains were limited, providing no obvious boost to the spot market; coupled with the approaching Qingming Festival holiday, overall market trading sentiment was sluggish, and traders' quotes were largely stable. The most-traded SS futures contract stopped falling and strengthened. At 10:15 a.m., SS2605 was quoted at 14,150 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 270-470 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi was unchanged; for cold-rolled burr-edge 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi was unchanged, and the average price in Foshan was largely stable; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi were unchanged; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils, Wuxi quotes were unchanged; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan were largely stable. The stainless steel market is currently in the traditional peak consumption season of "Golden March and Silver April," and the fundamental downstream demand improved compared with the previous period. End-user procurement continued at a pace based on rigid demand, and overall trading volume was sufficient to support the market's basic vitality. However, affected by macro news disruptions and fluctuations in futures, downstream end-user clients still maintained a wait-and-see sentiment, showing no willingness to stockpile, and transactions fluctuated with changes in the news flow. Futures, the Iran geopolitical conflict is difficult to resolve in the short term, and uncertainty in macro news continues to cause disruptions...