[SMM Rare Earth Flash] US rare earth producer MP Materials (NYSE: MP) reported its Q2 2026 results, with Pr-Nd oxide production at 840 mt, up 41% YoY; sales reached 1,006 mt, up 127% YoY, marking the second consecutive quarter with sales exceeding 1,000 mt. The company expects Q3 production to exceed 1,000 mt. In May, the company completed mechanical completion of its heavy rare earth separation line, and plans to start producing dysprosium and terbium within the year. In July, it signed a multi-year supply agreement for gadolinium oxide with a US aerospace and defense manufacturer, with the contract valued at several hundred million dollars. The independent magnet factory in Texas has delivered magnets to General Motors for automotive certification testing, and commercial shipments are expected to start in Q4. Q2 revenue was $108 million, up 89% YoY; net loss narrowed to $20.3 million. The company's cash and short-term investments reached $1.45 billion.

[Pr-Nd Series Under Pressure and Weakening, Medium-Heavy Rare Earths Hold Steady, Magnetic Material Scrap Game Continues] Yesterday, affected by fluctuations in futures prices, bearish sentiment continued to spread in the market. The wait-and-see sentiment among downstream metal plants further intensified, with purchase willingness remaining sluggish; most upstream suppliers have stopped offering prices, while some traders were still selling at low prices, putting market transactions under pressure; in the medium-heavy rare earths sector, the markets for dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide saw relatively small changes, with prices remaining relatively stable.

Zimbabwe's first lithium sulfate plant, built by China owned Prospect Lithium Zimbabwe (PLZ) at Goromonzi, became fully operational in May 2026, mines minister Polite Kambamura confirmed last week. The $400 million facility is Africa's first lithium sulfate plant. Carbonate unit nearing completion, per Kambamura; more sulfate capacity expected sector-wide ahead of the January 2027 concentrate export ban. Policy backdrop: Zimbabwe froze raw mineral exports in February 2026 ahead of the 2027 ban. President Mnangagwa reiterated the stance this week, citing zero tolerance for raw mineral exports going forward. Investment: Over $1 billion in lithium-sector investment logged since February 2026, per policy expert Tedious Ncube figure undisaggregated by project. Scope widens: 13 additional minerals (cobalt, PGMs, rare earths) join the export restriction from January 2027. Kambamura also flagged domestic battery/solar panel manufacturing as a longer-term goal, with no timeline attached. SMM View: Goromonzi's "fully operational" status (May 2026) is confirmed processing capacity log as verified, distinct from the carbonate unit (unconfirmed) and the $1bn investment figure (unverified, project-level breakdown pending).

Zimbabwe's first lithium sulfate plant, built by China-owned Prospect Lithium Zimbabwe at Goromonzi, reached full operational status in May 2026, mines minister Polite Kambamura confirmed last week. The $400 million facility is Africa's first lithium sulfate plant the first beneficiation announcement in Zimbabwe's sector to convert from construction to verified operating capacity. Carbonate unit still pre-commercial. PLZ's lithium carbonate refining facility is reported near completion but unconfirmed operational; more sulfate capacity is expected sector-wide ahead of Zimbabwe's full concentrate export ban, effective January 2027. Policy driver. Zimbabwe froze raw mineral exports in February 2026 ahead of the 2027 ban, forcing producers to build domestic processing capacity or lose export access. The restriction extends to 13 minerals beyond lithium, including cobalt, PGMs, and rare earths, from January 2027. Investment context. Over $1 billion in lithium sector investment has been logged since February 2026, per policy expert Tedious Ncube though the figure is undisaggregated by project and may blend processing and upstream mining capex. Battery manufacturing remains aspirational. Kambamura flagged domestic battery and solar panel production as a longer-term goal, with no capex, partner, or timeline attached. South Africa currently leads Africa's nascent battery-manufacturing capacity. SMM View: Goromonzi is the first verified beneficiation capacity milestone in Zimbabwe's lithium sector log as confirmed, distinct from carbonate and the $1bn aggregate unverified, project-level breakdown pending). Key watch point: whether sulfate or carbonate capacity build keeps pace with the January 2027 export cutoff or risks a supply disruption relevant to our Zimbabwe ban scenario model.

This week, FOB quotations in the ex-China rare earth market generally declined, with varieties such as terbium oxide and terbium metal seeing noticeable drops. However, affected by policies and weak demand, actual transaction volumes were thin, and heavy rare earth prices stayed high. Meanwhile, supply chain restructuring moves were frequent: resources at Namibia's Kameelburg increased by another 35%, Japanese capital officially entered the Lofdal project; Malaysia considered conditionally liberalizing raw ore exports; US-based Energy Fuels advanced the final investment decision for the Donald project in Australia, and Lockheed Martin signed a long-term scandium supply agreement. A survey in Japan showed that 80% of manufacturing executives considered rare earth procurement a major risk, highlighting anxiety in the industry chain.

[SMM Rare Earth Express] Aldoro Resources, a publicly listed firm on the ASX, has announced that the ore resources at its Kameelburg rare earth project in Namibia have increased from 280 million mt a year ago to 804.5 million mt, including maiden Indicated Resources of 162.1 million mt and Inferred Resources of 642.4 million mt, further enhancing the confidence in the project’s resources. The company stated that, based on an average Pr-Nd grade of 0.18%, the Indicated Resources correspond to approximately 200,000 mt of Pr-Nd oxide, laying a foundation for subsequent mine development studies and Phase 3 drilling. Apart from rare earths, the Kameelburg deposit is also rich in critical minerals such as strontium and niobium, with carbocernaite as the primary mineral, offering favorable beneficiation and metallurgical properties and multi-mineral development potential. Meanwhile, Aldoro is advancing its Hong Kong listing plan to broaden international financing channels and accelerate project development.

[Pr-Nd Oxide Offers Firm, Low-Priced Supplies Tighten; Metals Stable but Transactions Weak; Medium-Heavy Rare Earths Slightly Follow Decline] Yesterday, driven by news-related factors, suppliers’ Pr-Nd oxide offers were overall relatively firm, and low-priced supplies tightened further, but most metal plants remained heavy with a wait-and-see sentiment, and their purchase willingness remained poor as orders had yet to see substantial improvement. For medium-heavy rare earths, downstream demand remained sluggish, some traders sold at low prices, and their actual transaction price center edged down slightly.

SMM August 6 News: Germanium ingot in the spot market, driven by tight raw material supply, saw its price edge up slightly; leading tungsten enterprises slightly raised their long-term contract quotations. Meanwhile, the US Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) on August 6, 2026, formally published in the Federal Register the interim final rule "Allocation Order and Additional Requirements for Recyclable Critical Minerals and Materials," under the Defense Production Act (DPA) and a presidential determination on July 30, 2026, imposing mandatory domestic sales controls on two types of critical recycled minerals: shredded tungsten scrap and lithium battery black mass. The rule will take effect on August 27, 2026, and remain valid until August 27, 2027, intensifying concerns about tight tungsten raw material supply outside China. As of now, activity in domestic spot tungsten transactions has shown some rebound, and the transaction center for spot tungsten ore orders has edged up slightly. Secondary market sentiment heating up boosted the minor metal sector, which collectively strengthened. As of the close on August 6, the minor metals sector rose by 2.08%. In terms of individual stocks: Yunnan Germanium surged over 8%, while China Tungsten High-Tech, Xianglu Tungsten, Xiamen Tungsten, Haotong Technology, and Orient Tantalum led the gains. Spot Market Germanium Order to View SMM Historical Metal Spot Prices Germanium is a strategic rare metal with a highly concentrated global supply structure. The ongoing implementation of domestic resource controls and frequent geopolitical disruptions outside China, combined with the normal enforcement of export control policies, have collectively reinforced supply tightening expectations. Currently, low-priced supply in the market is scarce, and downstream just-in-time procurement must accept high-priced materials, causing germanium ingot prices to edge up on August 6. Meanwhile, overall stable demand from end-use industries has provided support for the continuous rise in germanium prices this year. Tungsten Order to View SMM Historical Metal Spot Price Trends Currently, the tungsten ore market is operating steadily. A large tungsten enterprise slightly raised its long-term contract quotation, providing some support to market confidence. Meanwhile, the US Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) on August 6, 2026, formally published in the Federal Register the interim final rule "Allocation Order and Additional Requirements for Recyclable Critical Minerals and Materials," under the Defense Production Act (DPA) and a presidential determination on July 30, 2026, imposing mandatory domestic sales controls on two types of critical recycled minerals: shredded tungsten scrap and lithium battery black mass. The rule will take effect on August 27, 2026, and remain valid until August 27, 2027, which has escalated market concerns about tight tungsten raw material supply outside China. As of now, activity in domestic spot tungsten transactions has shown some rebound, and the transaction center for spot tungsten ore orders has edged up slightly. On the domestic front, the market is reassessing the impact of the "Opinions of the National Mine Safety Administration on Standardizing Construction Teams for Metal and Non-Metallic Mine Mining (Stripping)" on the non-coal mining industry. The document requires that by May 1, 2027, for underground mines and by May 1, 2028, for open-pit mines, one of two options must be chosen: ① establish an in-house mining team; ② engage in compliant integrated contracting; fragmentary subcontracting and layered transfers are prohibited, and labor dispatch is strictly banned. Mines failing to complete rectification by the deadline will be ordered to suspend production for rectification. Domestic tungsten mines are primarily underground, with the vast majority of wolframite extracted through underground mining, and some scheelite extracted through both open-pit and underground methods. In tungsten-rich regions such as Jiangxi and Hunan, a large number of small and medium tungsten mines have long been highly dependent on external contracted mining teams. The implementation of the new regulation will impose tangible constraints on tungsten ore supply, production costs, and the operations of small and medium mines. Recently, the spot tungsten ore market has started to become more active, with traders actively entering the market, while downstream smelters continue to maintain a wait-and-see sentiment. Overall, market sentiment has eased amid frequent mining policies and intensive safety inspections in Yunnan, Jiangxi, and Henan. Supply-side disruptions have increased, and if demand shows mild entry, the tungsten market is expected to see a turnaround. Institutional Voices Guojin Securities research report believes: Tantalum: Global tantalum resource supply is highly concentrated and frequently disrupted, while development of AI servers and advanced semiconductor manufacturing is expected to continue driving demand growth in tantalum capacitors, tantalum targets, and other areas. Against the backdrop of ongoing supply constraints and gradual demand release, the tantalum market is expected to shift from supply-driven to supply-demand resonance, pushing the tantalum price center further upward. Related equities: Oriental Tantalum, Guotai Group, Ximei Resources, Xinjinlu, Jiangwu Equipment. Minmetals Securities research report points out: Germanium accounts for 60% of applications in optical communications and satellite photovoltaics, making it an "AI computing power + space energy" metal. With its excellent refractive index control capability and radiation resistance, germanium has become a critical material for AI data center optical interconnects and low-earth orbit satellite photovoltaic systems. Looking at changes in demand structure, from 2020 to 2026, downstream germanium consumption grew from 160 mt to 240 mt, with optical communications' share rising to 40% and satellite photovoltaics' share to 20%, together accounting for 60% of total downstream demand. It is expected that 90% of demand growth contributions in 2027 will come from two high-boom sectors: AI hardware and satellite photovoltaics. Caitong Securities research report shows: With the explosive demand for AI computing power, the market size of indium phosphide, used as a chip substrate material, will continue to expand. Indium resources are scarce and subject to policy restrictions, and product prices have entered an upward channel. High-purity red phosphorus is a critically important semiconductor base material with high purification technology barriers. Against the backdrop of accelerated AI application deployment driving related infrastructure construction, the indium phosphide substrate industry chain is expected to see dual opportunities from demand growth and domestic substitution. Investors are advised to follow related enterprises with resource and technology advantages in indium phosphide, indium, and high-purity red phosphorus. Datong Securities research report shows that minor metals have embarked on an independent upward trend, with supply tightening and strategic attributes driving a valuation re-rating. The rare earth sector is front-running expectations of new regulations, with Myanmar ore imports disrupted and Pr-Nd oxide seeing tight spot supply and soaring prices. In tungsten and antimony, declining ore grades combined with environmental protection-driven production restrictions have widened supply gaps, while demand from photovoltaics and cemented carbides remains firm even in the off-season, with inventories at low levels. AI computing power and the communications industry are driving demand for gallium and germanium, and coupled with export control policies, overseas stockpiling has widened price spreads between Chinese and overseas markets. Scarce resources and financial attributes resonate, and the sector continues to attract capital favor.

[SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review: Off-Season Demand and Weakening Raw Materials Lead to Sluggish Trading and Broad Price Corrections] This week, Pr-Nd oxide prices declined further. Affected by continued weak downstream orders and fluctuations in futures, trading in the Pr-Nd oxide market was sluggish. Some traders lost confidence in the market outlook and actively sold at low prices. Driven by the "rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn" sentiment, the market's wait-and-see sentiment intensified. As of today, Pr-Nd oxide prices dropped to 735,000-737,000 yuan/mt.

[Pr-Nd oxide continued to weaken, large factories’ evening purchases boosted confidence, medium-heavy rare earth followed the decline.] Yesterday, affected by wild swings in futures prices, most market participants had a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Factories were reluctant to sell and purchase, and some traders continued to sell small quantities at low prices. However, large factories’ purchases in the evening boosted some market confidence, and low-priced supply tightened again. In the medium-heavy rare earth market, prices of dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide also edged down with the market, but most factories kept their offers firm, and the decline was relatively small.