[Lead-Zinc Miner Enterprise Updates] Today, Jinchenxin (603979.SH) announced that the company had undertaken the 600,000 t/a mining engineering construction project of the Youre Lead-Zinc Mine in Baiyu County from Sichuan Xinyuan Mining Co., Ltd., and had recently obtained the contract documents signed and sealed by both parties. The contract period runs from March 1, 2026 to July 1, 2028.

[Chile Zinc Concentrates Exports] According to the Chilean customs website, Chile exported 1,800 mt of zinc concentrates in February 2026, up 5% MoM, with cumulative exports from January to February totaling 3,500 mt.

The overall trend for iron ore futures was weak today, with the main contract I2609 closing at 750 RMB/ton, down 2.53% from the previous session. Spot prices fell 7-12 RMB/ton, with traders showing general willingness to quote but steel mills restocking only as needed and making few inquiries

[Price Review] Silver prices continued to weaken early this week amid the fermentation of Trump's speech from last week, but on Wednesday (April 8), supported by the US-Iran ceasefire agreement and a weaker US dollar, silver prices began to rebound, surging nearly 5% on April 8 alone. Short-term capital momentum, investment demand, and industrial demand had not recovered, with strong wait-and-see sentiment among market traders. Downstream transactions were still dominated by significantly reduced premium prices, and precious metal price gains remained relatively limited. Gold/silver ratio, as of April 8, the LBMA gold/silver ratio stood at 62, maintaining a fluctuating trend in the short term. [Key Data] Bearish: US March seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls came in at 178,000, above expectations and the previous value US March unemployment rate was reported at 4.3%, below expectations and the previous value US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending April 3 was 308.1, above expectations and the previous value US API crude oil inventory for the week ending April 3 was above expectations and the previous value On April 7, the US and Iran reached a ceasefire agreement, but Trump threatened that any country providing military weapons to Iran would be immediately subject to a 50% tariff. Data and macro news releases to watch next week include: On April 10 (Friday), the US is set to release March CPI data. Affected by energy price surges caused by the Iran war, the market widely expects inflation to rise significantly. Geopolitics, Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf will lead an Iranian delegation to negotiate with the US in Islamabad, Pakistan, with the US side led by Vice President Vance. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz invited both the Iranian and US delegations to further negotiate in Islamabad on April 10 to reach a final agreement resolving all disputes. Regarding the Strait of Hormuz situation, cracks appeared in the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, with Iran claiming three key provisions were violated, and the Strait of Hormuz has been closed again. [Price Forecast] In the short term, the trajectory of the US-Iran conflict remains the primary factor determining whether silver prices will sustain the rebound, with insufficient support from short-term industrial demand and investment demand. China fundamentals side, silver ingot spot cargo had shown a slight surplus and inventory buildup trend. Due to relatively pessimistic expectations for the PV industry in April, just-in-time procurement demand for silver nitrate, silver powder, and silver paste enterprises declined. As the SHFE April delivery approaches, suppliers showed a notably increased intention to deliver and liquidate, and the upward trend in silver ingot social inventory is likely to continue. Although silver prices next week may be boosted by the ceasefire and a weaker US dollar, the overall in the doldrums situation for precious metals has not been fully reversed. Spot transaction expectations remain at a slight premium or shifting to parity, and close attention should continue to be paid to changes in geopolitical conflicts and their impact on market sentiment and capital flow adjustments.

SMM, April 9: The most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,760 yuan/mt during the session. SHFE lead prices dipped slightly at the beginning of the session, touching a low of 16,715 yuan/mt, before rebounding and stabilizing. Towards the end of the session, SHFE lead prices fluctuated around the daily average line, ultimately closing at 16,785 yuan/mt, recording a small bearish candlestick, down 15 yuan/mt or 0.09%. Overnight, the Lebanon-Israel conflict continued to escalate, hostile actions between Iran and Israel resumed, and Iranian media reported that the Strait of Hormuz had been fully closed. Combined with rising expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes, the non-ferrous metals sector was broadly under pressure during the session. Supply side, more enterprises resumed operations after the Qingming Festival and maintenance capacity gradually recovered, with both primary lead and secondary lead supply increasing slightly. Demand side, downstream enterprises only maintained just-in-time procurement, a few entities restocked on dips, while the rest primarily fulfilled long-term contracts, and spot order market transactions remained sluggish. In the short term, upward momentum for lead prices is insufficient, and prices are expected to move sideways. Data source statement: Data other than publicly available information is derived from publicly available information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

[Silicon Metal Prices Remained Stagnant at Low Levels]: The silicon metal market remained stagnant with a weak tone this week, with price centers for some specifications shifting lower. As of April 9, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was at 8,900-9,100 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt WoW; #441 silicon was at 9,200-9,300 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt WoW; #421 silicon was at 9,300-9,500 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt WoW; and #3303 silicon was at 10,100-10,300 yuan/mt, flat WoW. In the futures market, the most-traded silicon metal contract moved sideways around 8,200-8,400 yuan/mt over the past week, as the silicon metal market was under pressure with narrow price fluctuations.

Today, the most-traded BC copper contract 2605 opened at 87,270 yuan/mt, initially experiencing wild swings to touch a high of 87,360 yuan/mt before maintaining wide fluctuations. After the daytime session opened, copper prices opened lower with a gap, dipping to 86,320 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward to finally close at 86,670 yuan/mt, up 0.67%. Open interest stood at 6,377 lots, an increase of 71 lots from the previous trading day, with trading volume at 2,981 lots, indicating bullish position building. On the macro front, the temporary ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran and the US dollar index touching a one-month low provided a phased boost to copper prices. However, the current agreement had limited binding force — of the 10 ceasefire terms proposed by Iran, 3 had already been violated, and an Iranian spokesperson also stated that Iran was prepared for a prolonged conflict. Uncertainty persisted over shipping conditions in the Strait of Hormuz, with risk-averse sentiment continuing to disturb futures. Fundamentals side, supply side, imported copper arrivals continued, while domestic supply saw reduced arrivals due to maintenance. Demand side, copper prices mainly fluctuated, and downstream buyers only made just-in-time procurement. Inventory side, as of Thursday, April 9, SMM copper inventories in major regions nationwide declined 13.06% WoW from the previous Thursday. SHFE copper 2605 contract closed at 97,810 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2605 contract at 86,670 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 97,937 yuan/mt. The price spread between SHFE copper 2605 and BC copper was -127, remaining inverted but narrowing from the previous day.

[SMM Update] SHFE data showed that on April 9, the total registered cast aluminum alloy warrants stood at 30,493 mt, a decrease of 569 mt from the previous trading day. By region, Shanghai registered 1,912 mt (unchanged), Guangdong 11,999 mt (down 359 mt), Jiangsu 3,511 mt (down 30 mt), Zhejiang 8,231 mt (down 180 mt), Chongqing 3,634 mt (unchanged), and Sichuan 1,206 mt (unchanged).

This week, ternary cathode material prices edged slightly lower, though the overall change remained limited. On the raw material front, cobalt sulfate prices held steady, manganese sulfate saw a modest increase, while nickel sulfate declined slightly. Lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices also softened. Spot lithium salt prices are currently range-bound, with the future trend still uncertain. Further guidance from overseas supply-side developments remains to be monitored. On transaction activity, payable levels for EV market orders showed no notable changes recently. In the consumer and e-mobility markets, some battery cell manufacturers conducted batch price-linked restocking during this week's period of low-range lithium salt price fluctuations, resulting in slightly more active transaction activity compared to the previous week. On the demand side, the domestic EV market showed modest recovery, though the increase was limited, and manufacturers remain cautious about future production schedules. Demand in the e-mobility market remained relatively subdued, with production still largely based on sales orders and need-based procurement. On overseas orders, after the export rush period ended in April, order volumes declined, though the magnitude of the decline was smaller than previously expected. Based on current conditions, overall industry production in April is still expected to see a certain degree of decrease compared with March.

SMM April 9 reported that this week, the total stainless steel inventory across the Wuxi and Foshan markets saw slight destocking, declining from 984,100 mt on April 2, 2026 to 978,700 mt on April 9, 2026, down 0.55% WoW. Stainless steel social inventory showed a slight destocking trend this week. The week entered April, coinciding with the Qingming Festival, but the holiday was relatively short, and the market did not see significant stockpiling demand. Downstream end-user procurement remained driven by rigid demand throughout, with no concentrated restocking wave forming. Futures side, the US-Iran conflict de-escalated during the week, with news of a two-week ceasefire between the two sides, easing market sentiment. Futures were lifted accordingly and probed higher, which in turn boosted spot market confidence. Spot inquiries and transactions recovered somewhat, directly driving a slight inventory reduction. However, it should be noted that geopolitical conflict risks had not been fully eliminated, short-term disruptions persisted, and the cautious sentiment among downstream end-users had not entirely dissipated, with a consistent lack of willingness to proactively stockpile. Supply side, steel mills concentrated their distribution to the market at the end of March, resulting in elevated arrivals in the earlier period, while this week's market arrivals decreased WoW, alleviating inventory accumulation pressure to some extent. However, stainless steel mill production schedules remained at high levels in April, and supply-side pressure continued to persist, posing significant challenges to further destocking. Coupled with the potential uncertainties of geopolitical conflicts at the macro perspective, the overall cautious atmosphere in the market had not fully faded, further constraining the pace of destocking. Overall, this week's slight destocking was primarily driven by the combined effects of the US-Iran ceasefire lifting futures, improved spot transactions, and reduced arrivals this week. Currently, steel mills' high production schedule pace had not changed significantly, and social inventory still faced considerable destocking pressure against the backdrop of high supply. Although spot transactions recovered somewhat, the cautious sentiment among downstream players was difficult to change, making significant destocking unlikely in the short term. Going forward, the trajectory of inventory will still hinge on the evolution of geopolitical conflicts, the direction of futures, and the intensity of actual downstream demand release.