Spot market: SMM #1 lead ingot prices remained stable from the beginning of the week through mid-week, then declined toward the weekend. Ahead of the Labour Day holiday, downstream stocking willingness was subdued, with only sporadic rigid-demand purchases. Wait-and-see sentiment was strong, and overall spot order trading was sluggish. By region, Henan was dominated by long-term contract deliveries, with traders offering discounts of 200-130 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2606 contract, and transactions at high prices were lackluster. In Hunan, spot order premiums narrowed from 0-30 yuan/mt to 0-20 yuan/mt, with some traders making shipments at slight discounts. Jiangxi quotes remained firm, with premiums pulling back from 150 yuan/mt to 120 yuan/mt. In Guangdong, ex-factory premiums continued to decline throughout the week, narrowing from 70-80 yuan/mt to 30-50 yuan/mt. Overall, lead prices were stable early in the week before weakening. Smelters' sentiment to hold prices firm gradually softened with some price concessions, but downstream rigid demand weakened ahead of the holiday, the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers intensified, and spot cargo transactions were mediocre overall.

SMM April 30 update: Lead prices fluctuated at highs before pulling back this week, with secondary refined lead generally trading at discounts. Early in the week, smelter maintenance increased and regional supply tightened, with quotes maintained at a discount of 80 yuan/mt to a premium of 50 yuan/mt. Downstream buyers saw weak rigid demand ahead of the holiday, and market trading was sluggish. From mid-week to the weekend, lead prices weakened. Raw material cost support narrowed quotes to a discount of 50 yuan/mt to a premium of 50 yuan/mt, as downstream enterprises gradually went on holiday and spot cargo transactions remained weak. Regional secondary lead supply contracted as smelters held prices firm on shipments. Combined with stable scrap battery procurement prices, smelting costs pulled back somewhat, and losses were slightly repaired. As of April 30, large enterprises posted losses of 109 yuan/mt, while small and medium-sized enterprises posted losses of 309 yuan/mt. Next week, scrap battery raw material inventory will remain tight, some smelters will cut production, and secondary lead supply will contract. Downstream consumption will remain weak, the weak supply-demand pattern on both sides will continue, and industry losses will be difficult to improve. Secondary refined lead is expected to maintain a discount of 50-0 yuan/mt.

Lead concentrate TCs remained generally stable this week. Some mine enterprises indicated that lead concentrate TCs had almost no room for further decline, while imported ore prices were still mainly quoted at -$150 to -$130/dmt. Affected by the recent tight supply-demand conditions of zinc concentrates and copper concentrates, some suppliers of lead concentrates rich in zinc and copper adjusted the pricing methods for copper and zinc. Although the comprehensive value of such copper- and zinc-rich lead concentrates was raised, the pricing of lead and precious metals within them remained unchanged, and the silver payable indicators for lead concentrates with various silver contents in the market remained firm.

[SMM Tungsten Express] APT CIF Rotterdam prices held steady at $2,800-3,200/mt this week, with market sentiment divided. Demand gaps supported continued raises in high-end offers, but influenced by sharp price declines in the Chinese market, European and American buyers generally adopted a wait-and-see approach, with overall transactions hindered. Ferrotungsten and scrap prices continued to decline. Ferrotungsten Rotterdam warehouse was quoted at $280-295/kg W, down $12.5 WoW; European scrap tungsten carbide inserts were quoted at €100-110/kg, down €5 WoW.

SMM News Flash: [HRC] Today's HRC export prices rose $1/mt MoM, with most market quotes above $500/mt. However, according to market feedback, a quote of $480/mt was seen today, likely an MD price. [India] Domestic steel mill prices in India remained stable, with ex-factory prices at 625-630 USD/tonne. Mills held prices firm due to good order-taking and upward cost pressure. However, spot trading market sentiment was weak, and coupled with energy supply issues at downstream processing enterprises, procurement was mainly driven by steel demand.

[Silicon Metal Futures Center Shifted Higher with Increased Enterprise Shipments; Heavy Wait-and-See Sentiment in Polysilicon Market]: In the futures market, the most-traded contract trended stronger during the week, with the SI2609 contract center at 8700-8800 yuan/mt and the highest point touching above 8,900 yuan/mt. Driven by macro factors and news, futures rose, boosting silicon producers' shipment sentiment, and silicon enterprises' shipments to trading firms engaging in both spot and futures market increased. On the fundamentals side, silicon metal supply and demand were in tight balance in April, and the supply-demand structure is not expected to see major adjustments in May. Facing the pressure of increased supply during the rainy season in Sichuan and Yunnan from June to July, the market outlook leaned toward caution. On the cost side, raw material prices remained firm. With upside in silicon metal prices capped and downside supported by costs, the price fluctuation range was narrow.

[SMM Silicone Weekly Review: Silicone DMC Transaction Center Continued to Rise, Shipments Performance of Downstream Products Diverged] The transaction center of China's silicone DMC market moved up this week, with mainstream transaction range at 14,700-15,000 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt WoW. Regional quotations showed slight divergence. Monomer enterprises in Shandong quoted 14,700 yuan/mt, while mainstream quotations in other regions reached 15,000 yuan/mt. Additionally, some enterprises primarily used their supplies for internal consumption, with only small volumes for exports, quoting higher at 15,500-15,900 yuan/mt.

Spot lithium carbonate prices fluctuated upward this week, with the price center further rising. The futures market performed strongly, with the most-traded LC2609 contract price range rising from 173,400-184,800 yuan/mt at the beginning of the week to 182,500-189,500 yuan/mt, up about 5% WoW, with open interest increasing significantly and bulls actively entering the market. Market transactions remained sluggish, with the psychological price level gap between upstream and downstream further widening. On the upstream lithium chemical plant side, quotes stayed high, willingness to sell spot orders was low, and the sentiment to hold prices firm was evident. On the downstream material plants side, purchases were mainly just-in-time procurement, with limited acceptance of high prices, and psychological purchase price levels concentrated around 170,000-175,000 yuan/mt, with only a few enterprises with rigid restocking needs willing to accept prices around 180,000 yuan/mt. Overall, market inquiries and transactions were relatively sluggish, presenting a stalemate pattern of "upstream holding prices firm and holding back from selling, downstream waiting and watching." Supply side, bullish and bearish factors were intertwined, with short-term disruptions coexisting with medium-term expectations. Bullish factors: continued disruptions from Jiangxi mine license renewals; Middle East geopolitical fluctuations pushing up diesel import costs, with some Australian mines' Q1 quarterly reports confirming cost increases; political instability in Mali raising market concerns over West African ore supply; spodumene concentrates prices continuing to strengthen, reinforcing the cost-support logic for non-integrated lithium chemical plants. Bearish factors: Zimbabwe Huayou announced successful shipment of lithium sulfate, potentially easing some short-term supply anxiety; April domestic lithium carbonate production pace remained generally stable, with salt lake operations maintaining steady production ramp-up; entering May, although Zimbabwe lithium concentrates exports remained restricted, relevant enterprises' raw material inventory could still ensure normal production for the month, with total May production expected to edge up about 3% MoM. Demand side expectations were positive, but actual boost effects still needed verification. Looking ahead, spot lithium carbonate prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong pattern in the short term. Supply side, the actual execution progress of Zimbabwe export quotas and the timing of Jiangxi mine license renewal shutdowns remain key variables; demand side, focus should be on May new energy auto sales data realization and the pace of LFP plant capacity expansion boosting raw material demand. Against the backdrop of unresolved supply-side constraints, cost support, and demand expectations resonating, lithium carbonate prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong trend in Q2.

The Co3O4 market operated steadily this week, with overall trading activity remaining subdued. Top-tier enterprises slightly lowered their quoted prices, but the periodic tight supply of cobalt intermediate products and persistently firm cobalt chloride prices provided effective cost support for prices. Downstream LCO material enterprises continued their purchasing as needed strategy, mostly restocking in small quantities based on orders on hand, with market inquiry activity remaining at a moderate level. Looking ahead, end-use demand performance remains the key variable determining cathode material procurement intensity. Given that market expectations for May are generally optimistic, attention should be paid to whether demand recovery can break the prolonged stable pattern and bring about periodic changes.

LCO market prices were largely stable this week. Influenced by the narrow-range sideways movement of upstream lithium carbonate prices, LCO quotes saw minor follow-on adjustments, with overall fluctuations remaining limited. Demand side, battery cell manufacturers continued to draw down raw material inventory, and willingness to restock increased somewhat, though actual procurement remained cautious. Most market participants adopted a wait-and-see stance, with transactions mainly concentrated on orders on hand executed according to established plans. LCO prices are expected to continue consolidating within a stable range in the short term, and close attention should be paid to changes in orders from downstream enterprises and their restocking pace going forward.