SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,286.5/mt and fluctuated downward in early trading to a low of $12,212/mt. Copper prices then fluctuated upward, with the center moving up to $12,408/mt, before falling back again to finally close at $12,348.5/mt, down 0.99%. Trading volume reached 20,000 lots, and open interest stood at 295,000 lots, an increase of 3,702 lots from the previous trading day. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 95,660 yuan/mt and dipped to 95,300 yuan/mt in early trading. Copper prices then fluctuated upward, with the center moving up to a high of 96,680 yuan/mt, before fluctuating downward to finally close at 96,150 yuan/mt, down 0.08%. Trading volume reached 36,500 lots, and open interest stood at 181,000 lots, a decrease of 1,608 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bulls reducing positions.

According to SMM statistics, on April 8, the aluminum ingot inventory in Guangdong was 257,000 mt; in Wuxi, it was 260,000 mt; and in Gongyi, it was 118,800 mt. The total inventory in these three locations was 635,800 mt, a decrease of 7,200 mt compared to the previous trading day. SMM predicts that in the first half of April, despite a slight inventory buildup on the first day after the Qingming holiday, the domestic aluminum ingot inventory will likely continue the destocking trend, possibly pulling back to around 700,000-750,000 mt by mid-April.

[SMM Analysis: Finished Product Inventories of Copper Foil Declined in March, While Industry Operating Rates Continued to Rise]According to SMM, the operating rate of copper foil enterprises in March 2025 was 71.82%, up 4.17 percentage points MoM and 11.38 percentage points YoY. Among them, the operating rate of large enterprises was 75.20%, medium-sized enterprises was 55.35%, and small enterprises was 70.18%...

Global markets experienced a "Black Monday" yesterday, as concerns over trade frictions on the macro front and expectations of monetary tightening intertwined, coupled with the risk of slowing industrial demand, exerting downward pressure on aluminum prices. On one hand, Trump's insistence on reciprocal tariffs and rejection of the EU's proposal for mutual tariff exemptions have heightened global trade uncertainty. If the US further imposes tariffs on aluminum products, it will directly suppress export demand and increase trade costs. Domestically, despite a slight inventory buildup of aluminum ingots during the Qingming holiday (+9,000 mt), the overall destocking trend in the first half of April remained unchanged (down 26,000 mt MoM), reflecting a gradual recovery in downstream demand and manageable supply-side pressure.

According to SMM statistics, the inventory of aluminum ingots in mainstream consumption areas in China stood at 774,000 mt on April 7, an increase of 9,000 mt compared to before the Qingming holiday (last Thursday), but a decrease of 26,000 mt WoW from last Monday. SMM believes that the three-day Qingming holiday led to a concentrated arrival of goods in mainstream consumption areas, resulting in an inventory buildup of 9,000 mt. However, the overall destocking trend of domestic aluminum ingot inventory in the first half of April remains unchanged.

【SMM Steel】On April 7, the early morning import iron ore prices dropped by 20 compared to pre-holiday levels. At Shandong ports, PB fines were around 760-770 yuan/mt, super special fines were 620-630 yuan/mt, and IOCJ fines were around 860-870 yuan/mt. At Tangshan ports, PB fines were 770-780 yuan/mt, and super special fines were around 620-630 yuan/mt (pricing unit: yuan/wmt). During the Qingming holiday, Singapore swaps experienced a significant decline, and after the domestic futures market opened today, prices followed the downward trend. The market was mostly in a wait-and-see mode, with no immediate offers. SMM learned that some traders sold PB fines to factories at Shandong ports for 768 yuan/mt. For more details, please visit the SMM website for free at https://steel.smm.cn/content/090/103263532.

Last Thursday, the most-traded SHFE tin 2505 contract experienced a pullback. During the Qingming holiday, the overseas market saw a significant decline. On the supply side, refined tin production in February was slightly down MoM due to the Chinese New Year holiday. Consumption improved from February to March as production resumed. Inventory-wise, social inventory increased WoW last week, which was generally unfavorable for futures prices. In terms of news, the US President signed two executive orders on so-called "reciprocal tariffs" at the White House, announcing a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on trading partners and imposing higher tariffs on certain trading partners. The Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council announced that additional tariffs would be imposed on imports originating from the US starting from 12:01 PM on April 10, 2025. Short-term macro sentiment disturbances have intensified. While the supply and demand fundamentals are favorable, the unexpected drag from macro trade disputes on demand expectations suggests a cautious approach to short-term trading, with a reference range of 265,000-293,000 yuan/mt. Later, focus will be on the implementation of macro measures, disturbances in Myanmar and Congo mines, the pace of Indonesian exports, and the verification of consumption data.

During the Qingming holiday, major events in the financial markets piled up. The Tariff Commission of the State Council announced a 34% tariff hike on all imports originating from the US. US job additions in March far exceeded expectations, but the impact of reciprocal tariffs is expected to emerge soon. Powell stated that the scale of tariffs is larger than expected, potentially stimulating inflation and slowing growth, and it remains uncertain how to respond. OPEC advanced its production increase plan, with a more significant production boost in May. The US reciprocal tariff policy triggered a massive shock in global financial markets. Wall Street stocks in the US plummeted for two consecutive days, with the Nasdaq confirming a bear market and the Dow Jones Industrial Average entering correction territory. European stocks plunged, with the benchmark STOXX 600 and Germany's DAX indices confirming corrections. Japanese stocks fell to their lowest since August last year, with a weekly decline of 9%, the largest weekly drop in five years. The US dollar index fell to a six-month low as investors weighed the impact of US tariffs on global trade and the economy. In commodities, affected by tariffs and OPEC's production increase, oil prices hit a new low in over three years. LME copper hit an eight-month low, as the US comprehensive tariff plan sparked fears of an economic recession. CBOT soybeans touched the year's lowest, impacted by comprehensive tariffs. Gold failed to stay immune, with investors selling gold to cover losses from the stock market crash. ICE cotton fell to a four-year low, pressured by export concerns. The CRB index, tracking global commodities, fell over 3% on Thursday and another 5% on Friday, with a weekly cumulative drop of 6%. **US Stocks Continue to Plunge** As reciprocal tariffs continued to ferment, US stocks plunged for two consecutive trading days during the Qingming holiday. US benchmark indices plummeted on Thursday, marking the largest single-day percentage drop in years, as the US comprehensive tariff policy sparked fears of a full-blown trade war and a global economic recession. The Dow fell 3.98%, the S&P 500 dropped 4.84%, and the Nasdaq plunged 5.97%. S&P 500 component stocks lost a combined $2.4 trillion in market value, with the index recording its largest single-day percentage drop since June 2020. The Dow also saw its largest single-day drop since June 2020, while the Nasdaq marked its largest single-day decline since March 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic sent global markets into a slump. Wall Street stocks fell for the second consecutive day on Friday, with the Nasdaq confirming a bear market and the Dow entering correction territory, as the escalation of the global trade war triggered the largest sell-off since the COVID-19 pandemic. The S&P 500 fell 5.97%, the Nasdaq dropped 5.82%, and the Dow plunged 5.5%. Over Thursday and Friday, the Dow fell 9.3%, the S&P 500 dropped 10.5%, and the Nasdaq declined 11.4%. **US Dollar Index Hits Six-Month Low** The US dollar index hit a six-month low during the Qingming holiday, with reciprocal tariffs causing significant volatility. On Thursday, the dollar plunged 1.9%, its worst performance since November 2022. The harsher-than-expected tariffs shocked the market, with global stocks falling and investors flocking to safer assets such as low-risk currencies, bonds, and gold, fearing that a full-blown trade dispute could trigger a sharp global economic slowdown and exacerbate inflation. The dollar rebounded nearly 1% on Friday after Fed Chairman Powell acknowledged that the impact of US tariffs was larger than expected and struck a cautious tone on future policy easing. The dollar showed little reaction to US data overall, with US service sector activity slowing to a nine-month low in March due to tariff-induced uncertainty. US non-farm payrolls added 228,000 in March, far exceeding the expected 135,000, while February's increase was revised down to 117,000. The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%. **Gold Fails to Stay Immune** As reciprocal tariffs continued to impact the market, commodities plunged across the board, and gold failed to stay immune, falling for two consecutive days as the intensifying trade war sparked fears of a global economic recession, with investors selling gold to cover losses from the broader market crash. Fed Chairman Powell stated on Friday that the scale of the new US tariffs is "larger than expected," and the economic impact, including rising inflation and slowing growth, could also be greater. He also warned that it is too early to know what the right response from the Fed should be. The US economy added far more jobs than expected in March, but comprehensive import tariffs could weaken the resilience of the labour market in the coming months amid declining business confidence and stock market sell-offs. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that non-farm payrolls added 228,000 in March, compared to an expected 135,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Average hourly wages rose 0.3% MoM and 3.8% YoY. After the jobs report, the market expects the Fed to wait until June to start cutting interest rates. Data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that as of April 1, speculators reduced their net long positions in COMEX gold futures and options by 16,134 contracts to 176,553. During the week, speculators reduced their net long positions in COMEX silver futures and options by 4,356 contracts to 41,449. **CBOT Soybeans Hit Year's Lowest** CBOT soybeans hit the year's lowest during the Qingming holiday. On April 4, the Tariff Commission of the State Council announced a 34% tariff hike on all imports originating from the US. The most-traded soybean contract fell below the $10 mark, hitting its lowest since December 19. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) export sales report released on Thursday showed that for the week ending March 27, US soybean export sales for the current market year increased by 410,200 mt, up 21% from the previous week but down 9% from the four-week average. Market estimates were for an increase of 250,000-800,000 mt. Among them, exports to mainland China increased by 208,700 mt. Data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday showed that large speculators increased their net short positions in CBOT corn and wheat futures and options last week while reducing their net short positions in soybean futures and options. As of April 1, large speculators reduced their net short positions in CBOT soybean futures and options by 12,322 contracts to 42,140. **Oil Prices Hit Three-Year Low** Affected by tariffs and OPEC's production increase, oil prices continued to plunge during the Qingming holiday. On Thursday, oil prices fell over 6%, marking the largest drop in three years, and on Friday, they fell 7%, hitting a new low in over three years. Oil prices fell sharply on Thursday, marking the largest single-day drop since 2022, a day after the US announced comprehensive new import tariffs, as OPEC unexpectedly agreed to increase production. Brent crude futures fell $4.81, or 6.42%, on Thursday. US crude futures fell $4.76, or 6.64%. Brent crude was set to record its largest drop since August 1, 2022, while US crude was set to record its largest drop since July 11, 2022. Eight OPEC countries agreed on Thursday to advance their oil production increase plan, with oil production in May increasing by 411,000 barrels per day, higher than the originally planned 135,000 barrels per day. This unexpected decision extended the already steep decline in oil prices. Oil prices fell 7% on Friday, hitting the lowest closing level in over three years, as the global trade war escalated sharply, with investors fearing an economic recession. Brent crude futures fell $4.56, or 6.5%, settling at $65.58 per barrel; US crude futures fell $4.96, or 7.4%, settling at $61.99. Earlier in the session, Brent crude futures hit a low of $64.03, and US crude futures hit a low of $60.45, both four-year lows. In percentage terms, Brent crude recorded its largest weekly drop in a year and a half, while US crude recorded its largest weekly drop in two years. **LME Copper Hits Eight-Month Low** As the US comprehensive tariff plan sparked fears of an economic recession, base metals saw a massive sell-off during the Qingming holiday. LME three-month copper fell 3.3% on Thursday, after hitting a low of $9,353, the lowest since March 4. On Friday, it fell 6.4%, earlier hitting a low of $8,734, the lowest since August 8. In the past 15 years, copper has only seen larger daily drops in March 2020 and during the European debt crisis in October 2011. Aluminum hit a seven-month low, falling for the 12th consecutive trading day. Nickel hit a low of $14,595, the lowest since October 2020. Zinc hit an eight-month low, while lead hit its lowest since October 2022. As tariff hikes hit global growth expectations, copper consumption prospects, and risk appetite, Citi expects copper prices to pull back to $8,500 by Q3. BNP Paribas believes copper prices will fall to this level in Q2. Data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that as of April 1, speculators reduced their net long positions in COMEX copper futures and options by 2,352 contracts to 31,274. **Powell Says Tariff Scale Larger Than Expected May Stimulate Inflation and Slow Growth, Uncertain How to Respond** Fed Chairman Powell stated on Friday that the scale of Trump's new tariffs is "larger than expected," and the economic impact, including rising inflation and slowing growth, could also be greater. He also warned that it is too early to know what the right response from the Fed should be. "We face a highly uncertain outlook, with risks of rising unemployment and inflation," he said, adding that the Fed has time to wait for more data before deciding how monetary policy should respond. **US Job Additions Far Exceed Expectations in March, but Trump Tariff Impact Expected to Emerge Soon** The US economy added far more jobs than expected in March, but comprehensive import tariffs could weaken the resilience of the labour market in the coming months amid declining business confidence and stock market sell-offs. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that non-farm payrolls added 228,000 in March, compared to an expected 135,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Average hourly wages rose 0.3% MoM and 3.8% YoY. After the jobs report, the market expects the Fed to wait until June to start cutting interest rates. **OPEC Advances Production Increase Plan, May Output to See Larger Boost** Eight OPEC countries agreed on Thursday to advance their oil production increase plan, with oil production in May increasing by 411,000 barrels per day. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in a statement: "This includes the originally planned May increase, as well as a two-month increase." This week, attention remains on US and China data, with the Fed releasing meeting minutes on Wednesday. On Thursday, China will release March CPI and PPI data, while US March CPI will also be released. On Thursday, the agricultural market will see the USDA's April supply and demand report. On Friday, the US will release March PPI data.

During the Qingming holiday, the overseas metal futures market entered a full-scale recession trading mode due to the US announcement of imposing "reciprocal tariffs," with LME copper prices plummeting significantly. As of April 4, LME copper closed at $8,690/mt, down 10.42% from the pre-holiday closing price on April 2. In the early morning of April 7, as of the time of writing, LME copper fell to $8,240/mt, a drop of over 5%. SHFE copper opened with a limit-down.

During the Qingming holiday, overseas metal futures markets entered a full-scale recession trading mode due to the US announcement of imposing "reciprocal tariffs," leading to a significant drop in LME copper prices. As of April 4, LME copper closed at $8,690/mt, down 10.42% from the pre-holiday closing price on April 2. On the morning of April 7, LME copper opened lower with a gap, falling to $8,292.5/mt, a decrease of 4.57% from the closing price on April 4.