Overall, cost support remained strong, supply tightened while demand stayed stable. As tender prices became clear, aluminum fluoride prices were generally raised by around 800 yuan/mt in line with the guidance. Going forward, close attention should be paid to dynamic changes in raw material costs and adjustments in downstream procurement pace.

This week, ferrous metals were in the doldrums. The main logic during the week remained weakening cost support. On Tuesday, Iran proposed charging transit fees for the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump made conciliatory remarks, saying that “even if the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed, he would still be willing to end military action against Iran.” Market expectations for tighter crude oil supply weakened, and declines in the energy sector dragged down the coal sector, weakening the cost-side logic. During the week, inventories of the five major steel products continued to decline, but apparent demand remained at a low level for the same period in previous years, providing limited fundamental-driven momentum to futures. In the spot market, purchasing interest was average, mainly focused on restocking at low prices. Spot prices were relatively firm, and the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat......

[China Iron Ore Brief Review] In west Liaoning, local iron ore concentrates prices fell slightly by 5 yuan/mt, with the ex-factory prices of 66-grade iron ore concentrates, wet basis and excluding tax, at 735-740 yuan/mt; recently, production at some local mines and beneficiation plants was hindered by environmental protection inspections, leaving overall iron ore concentrates resources relatively tight. Demand side, steel mills were mainly purchasing as needed, and the whole

Recently, end-use consumption in the lead-acid battery market has remained weak, while lead prices have held up well. Battery enterprises have found it difficult to adjust prices, and the battery wholesale market has also struggled to catch up. During the period, e-bike enterprises successively issued notices saying that, due to rising raw material costs, they plan to raise the selling price of complete vehicles by 200-300 yuan per unit in April. In addition, on the lead-acid battery producer side, lead prices strengthened during the week, downstream enterprises' purchasing enthusiasm weakened significantly, spot transactions also turned lighter WoW, and spot premiums declined.

This week, the nickel market generally showed a pattern of "falling first and then rebounding, moving sideways within a range," with an intense tug-of-war between longs and shorts. The core fluctuation range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract was around 133,000-138,000 yuan/mt, down 1.82% on a weekly basis, while the LME nickel 3M contract also fluctuated lower this week, down 0.67%. In the spot market, the average SMM #1 refined nickel price was 136,600 yuan/mt this week, down 3,300 yuan/mt WoW. Jinchuan nickel premiums weakened sharply, falling all the way from 5,000 yuan/mt at the beginning of the week to 3,650 yuan/mt on Friday, with the weekly average at about 3,900 yuan/mt. Against the backdrop of high inventory in China, imported cargoes still faced circulation pressure, suppliers showed stronger willingness to sell, and premiums declined in tandem. Overall spot transactions were sluggish. With the Qingming Festival approaching and prices remaining high, downstream buyers showed insufficient purchasing enthusiasm, with rigid demand dominating. On the macro front, at the end of Q1 2026, US economic data showed stronger-than-expected resilience, undermining market confidence in a US Fed interest rate cut before June. This supported a stronger US dollar in the short term and put valuation pressure on commodities such as nickel. China's official manufacturing PMI for March came in at 50.5%, remaining in expansion territory for a second consecutive month, indicating signs of a manufacturing recovery. Repeated fluctuations in the Middle East situation have caused oil price fluctuations, driving swings in overall risk appetite across the commodities market, and nickel prices showed a relatively strong linkage to financial factors. Inventory side, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was about 1,700 mt this week, flat WoW. China's social inventory was about 92,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of about 1,800 mt WoW. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to remain in a tug-of-war pattern of "strong support from the cost floor, weak actual demand, and policy-driven sentiment disruptions," making rangebound fluctuations more likely. The core fluctuation range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to be 130,000-138,000 yuan/mt.

SMM, April 3: In early trading, SHFE aluminum 2604 fluctuated upward, while its center moved lower than the previous day. Supported by downstream pre-holiday restocking, buying sentiment rose sharply today, prompting sellers to lift quotes. Market transactions were mainly concentrated from the average discount of SMM A00 aluminum to a premium of 20 yuan/mt. Today, the shipments sentiment index in the east China market was 3.34, down 0.09 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 3.55, up 0.54 MoM. In the central China market, downstream restocking sentiment was strong, and purchasing sentiment exceeded shipments sentiment, prompting sellers to lift quotes and driving market offers and transaction prices higher throughout the day. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market were around a premium of 30-40 yuan/mt over the central China price. Today, the shipments sentiment index in the central China market was 2.7, down 0.09 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.49, up 0.06 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption regions fell by 2,000 mt MoM today, with destocking mainly coming from Wuxi and Gongyi.

[Weak Market Transactions During the Week, Guangdong Spot Premiums Continued to Decline] Zinc prices continued their upward trend this week, while downstream end-users in Guangdong showed weak purchasing interest. Coupled with the successive arrivals of some enterprises' long-term contract cargoes, market trading sentiment was sluggish, and spot premiums continued to decline......

On April 3, the SMM average price of battery-grade nickel sulphate declined slightly.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to remain under pressure. Supply side, smelters will maintain normal operations during the Qingming Festival holiday, and domestic spot copper output will continue, while imported copper will arrive successively, making spot cargo in circulation in the post-holiday market more ample. In addition, although some suppliers sold off cargo slightly during the day, with Honglu quoted at a discount of 80 yuan/mt, this did not drive overall spot discounts lower, reflecting that suppliers still have the willingness to hold prices firm at current price levels, with spot discounts receiving some support on the downside. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between expectations of ample supply and suppliers' willingness to hold prices firm, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2604 contract are expected to remain at a discount after the holiday.

According to SMM, the composite operating rate of the enamelled wire industry was 77.76% in March, up 33.91 percentage points MoM and up 3.38 percentage points YoY.