Glencore Sudbury Integrated Nickel Operations (INO) mine rescue team won the overall champion title at Ontario Mine Rescue 2026 competition, which ended 12 June in Sudbury, beating seven other provincial teams. The mock-emergency scenario, staged at Magna Mining Podolsky Mine—a historical property under care and maintenance—simulated teenagers trespassing into an abandoned site, testing teams on oxygen-deficient air, opioid-overdose response with Narcan, rope rescue and a vehicle fire using a Compressed Air Foam System. This is a workplace-safety and community item with no nickel market or pricing relevance.

SMM, June 24: Based on the profound accumulation in the copper industry and the need for mutual development, on June 23, Zhou Bo, Vice President of SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM), Long Huachen, General Manager of the South China Office, and Lin Jiazhi, Business Manager of the Copper Business Division, visited Guangxi Jinchuan Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd. for discussions and communication. They received a warm welcome from leaders including Xu Jun, General Manager of Guangxi Jinchuan Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd., Zhou Guoqing, Deputy General Manager, Mo Liping, Deputy Manager of the Supply and Sales Department, and business executives Xu Tianli and Liu Jianming. The discussions between the two sides were conducted in a cordial atmosphere. During the discussion session, the two parties leveraged their respective resource advantages for in-depth collaboration. Guangxi Jinchuan has a single-series copper smelting production line that is leading both in and outside China. Leveraging the strategic location near Fangchenggang Port, it serves as a core hub for Jinchuan Group’s expansion into markets outside China. Backed by its mature smelting capacity and advanced processes, and complemented by a digital technological transformation project that enables intelligent control over the entire process, the company has established a digital demonstration production line in the copper smelting industry. SMM, leveraging its big data on nonferrous metal industries, authoritative spot and futures pricing system, and strengths in integrated services across the entire industry chain, precisely addresses the core demands of enterprises in production and operation, cross-border trade, and digital transformation. The two parties engaged in in-depth discussions on topics such as copper price analysis, spot-futures coordination, industry chain resource integration, port-side cross-border trade, smelting digital upgrading, and frontier technology collaboration, laying a solid foundation for mutual empowerment and synergistic development. About Guangxi Jinchuan Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd. Guangxi Jinchuan Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd. (hereinafter the "Company") was founded in May 2010 and is located in the beautiful coastal city of Fangchenggang, Guangxi. The Company is a Sino-foreign joint venture controlled by Jinchuan Group Copper & Precious Metals Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Jinchuan Group (holding 70% of shares), with Trafigura as a stakeholder. It serves as a maritime gateway and bridgehead for the Gansu provincial government and Jinchuan Group in their pursuit of international operations and expansion outside China, and is highly aligned with the national Belt and Road Initiative, functioning as an export base for Gansu Province on the Maritime Silk Road. Benefiting from the unique coastal advantages and favorable business environment of Guangxi and Fangchenggang City, and relying on the expertise and dedication of all shareholders deeply engaged in the metal processing and trading industry, the Company has, after over a decade of development, achieved an annual production capacity of 800,000 mt of copper products and 3 million mt of sulphuric acid. The Company has received numerous honors, such as being recognized as a National Green Factory Demonstration Enterprise, National Intellectual Property Advantage Enterprise, Guangxi Industrial Leader, Guangxi High-tech Enterprise, Quality Management Benchmark for Industrial Enterprises, Guangxi Intelligent Factory Demonstration Enterprise and Digital Workshop Enterprise, Nomination Award for the Chairperson's Quality Award of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, and the Mayor's Quality Award of Fangchenggang City. In 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 66.7 billion yuan and total industrial output value of 67 billion yuan, ranking 12th among the 2025 Top 100 Guangxi Enterprises and 5th among the Top 100 Manufacturing Enterprises. The Phase I “Double Flash” system, commissioned in 2013, is the world’s largest single-system production system for mined copper by capacity. The technologies employed in the project, including “Double Flash” pure-oxygen smelting, high current density stainless steel cathode electrolysis, low-temperature heat recovery, rhenium recovery from waste acid, and krypton-xenon gas purification, are at a leading level in China. Its comprehensive resource utilization level and key technical and economic indicators lead the industry. In line with Jinchuan Group’s “Trillion Jinchuan” development goal and Fangchenggang’s deployment to build a “100-billion copper industry cluster,” the company launched a 300kt copper system process and digital upgrade project in 2022. The project adopts the internationally advanced “side-blown smelting + multi-lance top-blown converting” technology, takes the lead in the industry in adopting digital design and delivery, simultaneously constructs an intelligent digital factory, and achieves the organic integration of energy flow, material flow, and information flow with operational management, creating a model for the digital transformation of copper smelters in the non-ferrous industry. The project was incorporated into normal production sequence management in May 2025, and the company’s annual total industrial output value has exceeded 65 billion yuan. In 2026, against the backdrop of the global green transition and the ongoing advancement of the “dual carbon” goals, the non-ferrous metals industry is accelerating toward low-carbon, intelligent, and high-end development. South China, as a key non-ferrous metals industry cluster in China, possesses a well-established downstream processing system, abundant recycled resource reserves, and robust policy support. Leveraging South China’s unique industrial foundation and the new development trends of the industry, with the aim of precisely implementing industry-related policies, addressing industry pain points, and building a bridge for resource connectivity across the entire industry chain, the , organized by SMM, will be grandly held from September 9 to 11, 2026 in Nanning, Guangxi . The conference will conduct in-depth discussions on key topics such as metal price trends, medium and long-term market patterns, cross-border trade dynamics, industry policy interpretation, and low-carbon green process innovations. It aims to build an efficient and authoritative platform for industry exchange and cooperation, empower enterprises with technological innovation and green transformation, help industry participants seize market opportunities and calmly address development challenges, and jointly promote the high-quality advancement of China’s non-ferrous metals industry. We sincerely invite colleagues from all sectors of the entire non-ferrous industry chain to gather in Nanning to discuss new industry development opportunities and explore long-term paths for collaborative development of the industry chain! SMM Contact : Lin Jiazhi: 15017566696

[SMM Rare Earth Flash] JL MAG Rare-Earth recently announced that the company plans to acquire, through public listing for transfer on the Inner Mongolia Property Rights Exchange Center, the 9.24% equity stake in Baotou Rare Earth Products Exchange Co., Ltd. held by China Northern Rare Earth. The estimated transaction price is 22.0836 million yuan. This investment aims to enhance the company's ability to ensure the supply of rare earth raw materials and boost overall competitiveness, and does not constitute a connected transaction or material asset restructuring.

Spartan Metals announced the confirmation of two tungsten skarn zones at the Tungstonia claims within its wholly owned Eagle Project in Nevada, US. As part of its ongoing exploration programme launched in May 2026, rock sampling from the historic Yellow Jacket Mine within the project returned tungsten trioxide grades ranging from 0.89% to 1.87%. Crucially, assays from the mine entrance and dumps detected notable concentrations of zinc (up to 3.3%) and 1,320 ppm beryllium, the latter being a newly discovered critical metal at the property. Backpack core drilling at the mine also intercepted a 0.3-meter interval grading 0.21% tungsten trioxide and 0.33% zinc. The confirmed mineralization, spanning an estimated 2-kilometer area, hosts a complex system of tungsten, molybdenum, beryllium, rubidium, and silver. Spartan Metals intends to launch approximately 3,000 meters of diamond core drilling at selected targets from early to mid-August to further untangle this expanding mineralized system.

[SMM Analysis] Overseas HRC prices Declined More Than Chinese Prices; Overall Procurement Demand Continued to Weaken Passive Contraction in China–Foreign HRC Price Spreads and Blocked Export Channels Price spread models showed entirely diverging trends. Steel billet price spreads were relatively stable, while HRC spreads continued to contract. The China–India HRC spread, after a streak of declines in mid-June, recently plunged to -36, an all-time low in the table. This figure was not only far above the quarterly average of -65, but also well below the current monthly average of -49. The root cause is not a sharp slide in Chinese export prices, but rather extremely weak Indian domestic demand. To defend their domestic market share and digest surplus production, local steel mills in India adopted a highly aggressive "defensive price-slashing" strategy. Meanwhile, given the domestic supply-demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand, there is still room for further downside in Indian domestic steel prices in the near term, and the China–India spread will hover at lows. Data source: SMM Monsoon Rains Suppressed Downstream Demand; Indian Steel Market Was in the Doldrums Weighed down by the traditional demand off-season due to the monsoon rainy season and generally very cautious purchasing attitudes among buyers, Indian long steel prices remained under pressure last week. Rebar EXW prices dropped notably to around $630/mt EXW, hitting the lowest level since May. In contrast, Raipur billet showed slightly more resilience, with prices edging up about $2/mt to around $453/mt EXW. This was mainly supported by a boost from earlier transactions and short-term support from buoyant sentiment in surrounding markets, though current spot procurement remained cautious and restrained. Notably, Chhattisgarh has planned to raise electricity prices, which is expected to push up the production cost of electric furnace billet by about $3–4/mt starting in July, providing some cost support. Overall, the Indian steel market will continue to face a mix of weak demand and cost support in the near term, and prices are expected to remain on a weak fluctuating trend. Off-Season Suppressed Rigid Demand and Shipping Disrupted: Southeast Asian Steel Market Stayed in the Doldrums Short-Term Due to seasonal factors, construction activity rates in core Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Thailand have recently been low, directly limiting the release of rigid demand for long products like rebar and wire rod. Currently, major local mills' rebar EXW prices in Southeast Asia were generally weak, ranging between $520–535/mt EXW. Meanwhile, due to persistently subdued sentiment in end-user buying, destocking in the market remained relatively slow. Facing the current weak market, most buyers chose to wait and see, with purchasing strategies mostly centered on "purchasing as needed and buying just enough for immediate use." Additionally, stimulated by progress in US–Iran negotiations and news that the Strait of Hormuz may reopen, buyers in the Southeast Asian market grew more expectant of a pullback in ocean freight rates. Driven by the desire to "rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn," this expectation further amplified the market's bearish and wait-and-see sentiment. Still, the actual easing of shipping pressures stemming from geopolitical issues will take some time, and international freight rates are expected to remain mainly high and volatile in the short term. New Quotas Taking Effect on 1 July Prompted Full Buyer Wait-and-See; European HRC Trading Mediocre, Import Offers Weakened MoM Last week, the overall European steel market was relatively mediocre, with sellers and buyers locked in deep standoffs ahead of the policy window period, and both spot and import markets were subdued: In Germany, mainstream transaction prices for HRC with August–September delivery remained at €680–700/mt EXW. In Italy, mainstream transaction prices for HRC with July–August delivery were at €670–680/mt EXW. Most European buyers generally chose to refrain from booking and are fully waiting for the new import quota system that will officially take effect on 1 July. End-users and traders are eager to assess the actual restrictive impact of the new policy on future import volumes in order to readjust their procurement strategies. At the same time, hit by a double blow from sluggish European domestic demand and uncertainty over the quota policy, steel import activity in Europe also dropped to a freezing point. At present, HRC offers for August shipment from Turkey and Asia to Europe have pulled back to €640–650/mt DDP. With a lack of buyer support, overseas mills' forward export offers showed clear signs of weakening on a MoM basis. Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. The copyright, trademark rights, domain name rights, commercial data information property rights, and other related intellectual property rights of all content contained in this report (including but not limited to information, articles, data, charts, pictures, audio, video, logos, advertisements, trademarks, trade names, domain names, layout designs, etc.) are owned or held by SMM or its related right holders. The above rights are strictly protected by relevant laws and regulations of the People's Republic of China, such as the Copyright Law of the People's Republic of China, the Trademark Law of the People's Republic of China, and the Anti-Unfair Competition Law of the People's Republic of China, as well as applicable international treaties. Without prior written authorization from SMM, no institution or individual may: 1. Use all or part of this report in any form (including but not limited to reprinting, modifying, selling, transferring, displaying, translating, compiling, disseminating); 2. Disclose the content of this report to any third party; 3. License or authorize any third party to use the content of this report; 4. For any unauthorized use, SMM will legally pursue the legal responsibilities of the infringer, demanding that they bear legal responsibilities including but not limited to contractual breach liability, returning unjust enrichment, and compensating for direct and indirect economic losses. 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China’s rebar futures fell below around 432 USD/tonne, the lowest in two months, as weak economic data and the property downturn weighed on demand expectations. May crude steel output dropped 2.7% YoY to 84.35 million tonnes, while slower fixed-asset investment and consumption further pressured sentiment. Steel exports rose 8.8% MoM in May, but Jan–May exports were still down 8.1% YoY amid rising trade barriers.

Around the Dragon Boat Festival, reporters visited Beijing, Shenzhen, and Shanghai and found that viewing numbers and trading volumes for popular new and second-hand housing projects had recovered, while demand for improved housing was released at a faster pace. Experts believe that, against the backdrop of policy support and stabilizing home prices, the property markets in first-tier cities have seen marginal improvements, with their role as a market barometer growing more prominent. This helps boost home buying confidence nationwide, though the strength and sustainability of the subsequent market recovery remain to be seen.

SMM June 22: Metals markets: On Friday night, the domestic base metals market was closed for the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. Looking back at the performance of domestic base metals on June 18, we see: Domestic base metals showed mixed performance, with SHFE zinc up 0.39%, SHFE aluminum up 0.38%, and SHFE nickel edging up. SHFE tin fell 2.03%, SHFE copper fell 0.48%, and SHFE lead fell 0.15%. On Friday night, the ferrous metals market was closed for the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. Looking back at ferrous metals on June 18: Stainless steel rose 0.07%, iron ore fell 1.13%, rebar fell 0.95%. Hot-rolled coil fell 0.77%. The most-traded coking coal futures contract fell 5.78%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 3%. On Friday night in the overseas metals market, LME base metals mostly fell. LME copper fell 0.5%. LME aluminum rose 0.12%, LME lead fell 1.32%. LME zinc fell 2.05%. LME tin rose 0.19%. LME nickel fell 1.41%. On Friday night in precious metals : COMEX gold fell 1.72%, posting a third consecutive weekly decline, with a weekly drop of 1.55%; COMEX silver fell 2.12%, marking its sixth consecutive weekly decline, with a weekly drop of 4.51%. On Friday night, the most-traded SHFE gold contract was closed; SHFE gold posted a weekly gain, up 4.11% for the week. The most-traded SHFE silver contract was closed; SHFE silver posted a weekly gain, up 5.25% for the week. As it no longer expects the US Fed to cut interest rates in 2026, Goldman Sachs lowered its year-end gold price forecast by $500. Analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven wrote in a note: "We revised down our December gold price target to $4,900/oz (previous target $5,400), implying gold is still expected to rise in H2, though by less than previously expected. Our view on gold remains structurally constructive but tactically cautious, with near-term downside risks and medium-term upside risks." The analysts said the downgrade was driven by Goldman Sachs economists pushing back the first US rate cut to June and December next year, from prior expectations of December 2026 and March 2027, and also by a lower forecast for gold ETF inflows. Additionally, they added that concerns over central bank independence may be limited given the "unexpectedly hawkish" first Fed meeting under Chair Warsh. (Jinshi) As of 7:47 a.m. June 20, closing prices from Friday night: Macro front China side: [NFRA: Promote the construction of AI application infrastructure in the financial industry] The National Financial Regulatory Administration (NFRA) issued guidance on the development and application of safe AI in the banking and insurance sectors. It proposes to promote the construction of an AI application ecosystem in the financial sector. Advance the development of AI application infrastructure in the financial industry and promote the sharing and reuse of AI application outcomes across the sector. Encourage large financial institutions to play an exemplary role and export AI technologies and management experience to small and medium-sized financial institutions. Support small and medium-sized financial institutions in strengthening collaboration to jointly drive the implementation of application scenarios. Encourage closer synergy with the AI industry, using financial applications to foster industrial innovation and development, and leveraging industrial achievements to improve the quality and efficiency of financial applications. [Box office on the first day of the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival holiday surpasses 100 million yuan, number of new releases hits a near-decade high for the same period] According to data from online platforms, as of now, the box office (including pre-sales) on the first day of the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival holiday has exceeded 100 million yuan. The film offerings during the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival are diverse and rich in genre. Over the short three-day holiday, nearly 20 films were released in concentrated fashion, setting a new high for the same period in nearly a decade. The film genres cover sci-fi, youth, animation, and more, addressing the viewing needs of audiences across almost all age groups. (CCTV News) [Guangdong: Accelerate the construction of the national integrated computing power network hub in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and make forward-looking plans for 6G technology and satellite internet] The General Office of the People's Government of Guangdong Province issued a notice on the Implementation Plan for Promoting the Expansion and Quality Improvement of the Service Sector in Guangdong Province. It mentions that the deployment of 5G-A networks and pilot projects for 10G optical networks will be advanced in an orderly manner. 50G-PON ports will be deployed on a large scale in key scenarios such as factories and industrial parks. The upgrading and renovation of aging communication facilities will be further promoted, with FTTR whole-home optical network coverage to be achieved simultaneously in both new and older residential communities. Mobile network coverage along major transportation routes and hubs will be improved, and initiatives to increase broadband speeds and benefit the public will be implemented, driving an overall leap in broadband user download rates. The construction of the national integrated computing power network hub in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area will be accelerated, the spatial layout of data centers optimized, edge computing vigorously developed, and a “cloud-edge-device” collaborative computing power service system created. Forward-looking plans will be made for 6G technology and satellite internet, a Guangdong 6G Industry Innovation and Development Alliance will be established, and ministerial-provincial 6G collaborative pilot projects will be promoted, with a focus on creating application benchmarks for distinctive scenarios such as embodied AI, intelligent connected vehicles, the low-altitude economy, and the marine economy. [Guangdong: Support the Guangzhou Futures Exchange in enriching its futures product system and improving the full futures industry chain] The General Office of the People's Government of Guangdong Province issued a notice on the Implementation Plan for Promoting the Expansion and Quality Improvement of the Service Sector in Guangdong Province. It mentions that efforts will be made to cultivate and strengthen high-quality investment banks and investment institutions, encourage leading securities firms and fund management companies to enhance their service capabilities, compliance management capabilities, and market leadership, attract well-known domestic and international asset management institutions to establish corporate headquarters or regional headquarters in Guangdong, and encourage the development of the investment advisory business. Leverage the comprehensive service functions of the capital market, guide and support cities in improving the reserve pools of IPO-ready enterprises and M&A and restructuring projects, collaborate with exchanges, brokerages and other institutions to thoroughly deliver full-cycle counseling services for pre-IPO enterprises, optimize approval processes for land use rights, property, stock transfers involved in M&A and restructuring of publicly listed firms, and encourage enterprises to expand the issuance scale of sci-tech bonds, green bonds, and asset securitization products. (From Wallstreetcn APP) [Weifang: Expand the implementation of 2026 consumer goods trade-in category subsidy activities] The Weifang Municipal Bureau of Commerce issued an announcement on expanding the implementation of Weifang's 2026 consumer goods trade-in category subsidy activities. According to the province-wide unified categories and standards, subsidies will be provided to individual consumers purchasing range hoods, household gas stoves (including integrated stoves), water purifiers, dishwashers, hearing aids, robot vacuums (including floor scrubbers), walking-assist exoskeleton robots, smart toilets, and other products. Individual consumers purchasing the above subsidized category products within Weifang will receive a subsidy of 15% of the final selling price after deducting discounts at all stages. Each person is limited to one subsidized item per category, with a maximum subsidy of 1,500 yuan per item, and the delivery place of the subsidized products must be within the administrative area of Weifang. (Published by Weifang) [Shanghai International Energy Exchange Issues Notice on Launch of Market Orders and Order Quantities for Related Trading Instructions] According to the Shanghai International Energy Exchange, market orders will be launched starting July 6, 2026 (i.e., the continuous trading session on the evening of July 3, 2026). Market orders are applicable to all listed futures and options products. For limit orders, the minimum order quantity per order is 1 lot, and the maximum order quantity per order is 500 lots for futures products and 100 lots for options products. For market orders, the minimum order quantity per order is 1 lot, and the maximum order quantity per order is 60 lots for futures products and 30 lots for options products. For settlement price trading orders, the minimum order quantity per order is 1 lot, and the maximum order quantity per order is 500 lots. Dollar aspects: Overnight last Friday, the US dollar index fell 0.06% to 100.76, hitting a high of 101.13 and a low of 100.69 during the session. On the weekly chart: the US dollar index rose for the week, up 0.97% for the week. Market pricing showed that bets on Fed rate hikes increased, with a 25-basis-point rate hike in September fully priced in. Data showed that foreign exchange traders, including hedge funds, were buying large amounts of options, betting that the dollar would strengthen further after the Fed sends a hawkish signal this week and reinforces US rate hike expectations. According to traders, leveraged funds started buying dollar call options on Wednesday, which would increase in value if the dollar appreciates. That demand extended into Thursday as investors digested the new Fed Chairman Warsh's anti-inflation remarks. Bank of America’s head of Americas FX options, Tobias Jungmann, said: “We’re seeing massive dollar call buying, concentrated mainly in G-10 currencies. Given how low implied volatility is currently, building long dollar positions via options looks very attractive.” James Swindell, senior FX options trader at Barclays in London, said: “We’re seeing broad-based, notable demand for dollar calls, especially in EUR/USD and GBP/USD.” (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME’s “FedWatch”: The probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in July is 60.4%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike stands at 39.6%. By the September meeting, the probability of unchanged rates is 31.2%, with a 49.6% chance of a cumulative 25bp hike and a 19.1% chance of a cumulative 50bp hike. (Jin10 Data APP) On other currencies: ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said on Thursday that eurozone inflation will remain elevated despite the recent pullback in energy prices. The ECB raised rates last week for the first time in nearly three years, responding to the surge in energy prices since the Middle East conflict erupted in late February. However, oil and natural gas prices subsequently tumbled after Iran and the US announced a peace deal. Lane said the ECB has no doubts about the correctness of the rate-hike decision and still expects inflation to stay above the 2% target for a prolonged period. “We think food prices will rise, and prices of goods and services will rise too. Even in a milder scenario where oil prices pull back, the rate hike was justified,” he said. Separately, ECB Governing Council member Wunsch said: If we see rising services inflation, we could consider another 25bp rate hike as insurance. If the data are ambiguous, I see no need to rush into action. (Jin10 Data) [Bank of England keeps rates on hold in a 7-2 vote, says it will watch Middle East situation closely] The BoE kept the interest rate at 3.75%, calling the recent drop in oil prices “encouraging,” though two policymakers voted for an immediate 25bp hike, worried about persistent inflation. External member Megan Greene joined Chief Economist Huw Pill—April’s sole dissenter—in voting to lift rates to 4% immediately, arguing that the price outlook remains uncertain despite the recent US-Iran ceasefire deal. (From Wall Street CN APP) On the macro front: This week will see the release of China’s one-year loan prime rate as of June 22, Canada’s May CPI month-on-month rate, the eurozone’s June flash consumer confidence index, France’s June flash manufacturing PMI, Germany’s June flash manufacturing PMI, the eurozone’s June flash manufacturing PMI, the UK’s June flash manufacturing PMI, the UK’s June flash services PMI, the UK’s June CBI industrial orders balance, the US ADP employment change for the week ending June 6, the US June S&P Global flash manufacturing PMI, the US June S&P Global flash services PMI, the US June Richmond Fed manufacturing index, Australia’s May unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate, Germany’s June IFO business climate index, Switzerland’s June ZEW investor sentiment index, the US Q1 current account, US May new home sales annualized, Australia’s May seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany’s July GfK consumer confidence index, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 20, the US May core PCE price index year-on-year rate, the US May personal spending month-on-month rate, the final Q1 US real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter rate, the preliminary Q1 US real personal consumption expenditures quarter-on-quarter rate, the final Q1 US real personal consumption expenditures quarter-on-quarter rate, the final Q1 US core PCE price index annualized quarter-on-quarter rate, the US May core PCE price index month-on-month rate, the US May durable goods orders month-on-month rate, the US June University of Michigan consumer sentiment final index, and the US June one-year inflation expectations final rate. Additionally, this week, attention should also be paid to: European Central Bank President Lagarde Christine speaks at the EU Parliament; Bank of Canada Governor Macklem Tiff delivers remarks; the 17th Summer Davos Forum takes place in Dalian from June 23 to 25; the Bank of Japan releases the summary of opinions from its June monetary policy meeting; Nvidia holds its annual general meeting of shareholders; the Bank of Canada publishes its monetary policy meeting minutes; the US Fed releases the results of its annual bank stress test; Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo attends a central bank lecture event hosted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF); 300 billion yuan of 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) and 248 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos mature today; FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams John speaks; 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee Austan speaks; 2026 FOMC voting member and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari Neel speaks. Crude Oil: Both crude oil futures rose in overnight trading last Friday: WTI rose 0.91%, Brent rose 0.47%. Weekly: WTI futures fell for two consecutive weeks, down 9.83% for the week; Brent fell for two straight weeks, down 8.53%. International crude oil futures opened lower on Friday, then struggled to rebound and turned lower several times during the session, hitting a low for the day after reports of a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. As news emerged that both sides continued to attack each other after the ceasefire, prices turned higher again in late European trading. Brent struggled around the $80 level throughout the day. (Wall Street View) Iran's Foreign Ministry stated: Negotiations on a permanent deal with the US will only begin after the war in Lebanon ends permanently, the US fully lifts blockades, the US grants waivers for Iranian oil, and Iran's frozen assets are released. (Jin10 Data APP) Iran is shipping out a large volume of oil that was previously unable to be exported due to the US blockade, which could be welcome news for Tehran after it signed a temporary peace agreement with Washington on Wednesday. Shipping data compiled by Bloomberg showed that 11 tankers sailed from Iran's Chabahar port in the Gulf of Oman this week, carrying a total of 20 million barrels of crude oil. Previously, the US military had blocked these tankers from entering the Indian Ocean, a move aimed at limiting Tehran's access to petrodollars. (Jin10 Data APP) In addition, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) data showed that for the week ended June 16, speculative net long positions in Brent crude oil futures decreased by 94,763 contracts to 114,128 contracts. (Jin10 Data APP) Additionally, due to the contract rollover, the floor trading of NYMEX New York crude oil July futures will close at 2:30 on June 23, and electronic trading will close at 5:00 a.m. Please pay attention to the exchange's expiration and rollover notices to manage risks. Moreover, the expiration of U.S. oil contracts on some trading platforms is usually one day earlier than the official NYMEX date, so please stay alert.

SMM, June 18: This week, SMM #1 lead ingot prices fluctuated upward from early to mid-week, then came under pressure and pulled back near the weekend. Driven by tight raw material inventories and bullish sentiment on lead prices, a small number of secondary lead smelters slightly raised their purchase prices for scrap batteries, while most producers kept their offers flat with last week. The industry remained in losses, with enterprises unwilling to actively raise prices to source materials, and the market largely adopted a wait-and-see approach. With lead prices weak and downstream consumption sluggish, smelters, despite low raw material inventories, had no incentive to raise prices for restocking. The anti-decline property of scrap battery prices became evident, and smelters also held a wait-and-see stance on price adjustments during the lead price uptrend. Next week, with smelters simultaneously undergoing production cuts, shutdowns, and resumptions, demand for scrap battery feedstock is mixed between bullish and bearish factors, and scrap battery purchase prices are expected to remain stable in the near term.

[SMM Insights] China's Steel Export Landscape to Middle East Reshaped: Finished Products Stall while Billets Stand Out Looking back at 2025, the Middle East market was undoubtedly the most dazzling "emerging dynamic market" in China's overseas steel landscape. In 2025, China's total steel exports to the Middle East reached 15.81 million mt, with monthly shipments basically stable in the high range of 1.2–1.3 million mt. Against the backdrop of total annual steel exports of 134 million mt, up 14% YoY, the Middle East market accounted for 11%–12% of China's total overseas steel export share. This means that in a single geo-economic region, its share and strategic reliance were second only to Southeast Asia, serving as the "second largest core pillar" for China's steel going global. In terms of product mix, high-added-value HRC (29% share), steel pipes essential for oil and gas projects (18% share), and medium-thickness plates (14% share) formed the three dominant players, reflecting the region's strong diversified industrial and infrastructure throughput capacity. However, it was precisely due to such a massive trade base in 2025 and high reliance on conventional Persian Gulf shipping lanes that when geopolitical storms suddenly struck and straits were dramatically blocked, the resulting "broad market stall" and supply chain disruption were so severe. Below, we will analyze in order: the specific situation of China's steel exports to the Middle East, how cargo pressure was shifted through port replacements during the strait blockade, and how the export landscape will be reshaped after the latest US-Israel negotiations? The "Stall" and Structural Anomaly of China's Steel Exports to the Middle East Data Source: SMM, China's General Administration of Customs First, let's look at total export performance. According to SMM historical data and the latest customs export trends, China's total steel exports to the Middle East in the first four months of 2026 plummeted from 5.47 million mt in the same period of 2025 to 3.57 million mt, with April exports directly halving. Specifically, among China's 5.47 million mt of steel exports to the Middle East from January to April 2025, a highly advanced finished-product-oriented export characteristic was evident. HRC (29%), steel pipe (18%), coated steel (15%), and medium-thickness plates (14%) constituted the four mainstays of China’s steel trade. In terms of destination countries, Saudi Arabia’s rigid demand for offshore/oil & gas pipe (986,000 mt) and the UAE’s strong processing throughput of general HRC (1.607 million mt) and medium-thickness plates (779,000 mt) jointly established the traditional “dual-core consumption hinterland” within the Persian Gulf. Data source: SMM, General Administration of Customs of China Supply Shock and Physical Scissors Gap: The “Billet Export Bonanza” Under a Double Squeeze Since the start of 2026, the blockade of the Persian Gulf Strait caused by geopolitical conflicts significantly weakened overall shipments, while a dramatic “underlying mutation” simultaneously unfolded in the product mix. Steel billet, a minor product that previously accounted for only an 8% share (431,000 mt), registered a strong countertrend increase of 24% in the first four months of 2026. According to the SMM survey, the underlying driver of this anomaly originated from a localized supply shock induced by geopolitical shifts in Iran. If the closure of the Persian Gulf Strait severed the “aorta” of Middle Eastern steel imports, the sudden destruction of Iran’s two largest steel giants—Mobarakeh Steel Company (MSC) in Isfahan and Khuzestan Steel Company (KSC)—on March 27, 2026, completely ignited a “raw material upheaval” within the region. Iran is the world’s tenth-largest and the Middle East’s largest crude steel producer (accounting for over 50% of the region’s total crude steel output), with annual steel exports exceeding 10 million mt, among which semi-finished steel billets are the absolute mainstay. Mobarakeh (MSC) has an annual capacity of 11.8 million mt (20% of Iran’s total capacity), making it the undisputed “King of Flat Products/Sheets & Plates” in the Middle East; Khuzestan (KSC) is Iran’s second-largest steel producer and its most critical production base for slabs and billets. Data source: SMM, General Administration of Customs of China Under normal conditions, Iran was the primary supplier of low-priced steel billets to local rolling mills in the Middle East. With the sharp contraction in Iran's external supply, rolling mills in the Middle East, particularly in Oman and parts of the UAE outside the Gulf that were not directly affected by the blockade, faced severe raw material supply disruption risks. To maintain production, local buyers quickly released a large number of urgent inquiries to the international market. According to SMM survey, the huge demand gap for steel billets created by Iran's exit was filled and shared by supplies from China, India, and Russia. Because the local shortage was mainly crude steel raw material for rolling sheets and plates, and the equipment destruction from explosions meant that rolling lines were the first to restart, the main incremental product in these counter-trend orders was steel slab. This situation shares similarities with the article at https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/bsrZaRRSRDHC_FmGLulJOQ (Middle East turmoil triggers "mismatch", China accelerates filling a supply vacuum of about 2.3 million mt in Southeast Asia), which mentioned that China would accelerate taking over steel billet supply gaps. That is, despite the decline in steel exports this year, billet exports also achieved counter-trend growth. Stock Game: The "X-Shaped Crossover" of Inside-Gulf Shutdowns and Outside-Gulf Safe Havens Verified by SMM through freight forwarders, steel trade (especially medium-thickness plates, pipes, and steel billets) relies heavily on bulk or breakbulk vessels. When container liners encounter blockades, they can easily reroute by amending bookings via computer systems, but the diversion of bulk carriers faces rigid constraints from destination port drafts, specialized handling equipment (such as large quay cranes), and inland truck connections. Therefore, over the past two months, the supply chain staged a dramatic "port drift" inside and outside the Persian Gulf. The following uses SMM's panoramic shipping data to explain in detail the changes in cargo flow between ports. Under normal conditions, over 70% of China's steel shipments to the Middle East converged densely on Jebel Ali Port inside the Persian Gulf and Dammam Port on the eastern coast of Saudi Arabia. But after the strait blockade, steel port arrivals at these two traditional hubs showed a historic "physical shock" in SMM's high-frequency shipping data (falling to zero from April to May). Meanwhile, the diverted cargo, fighting to survive, surged wildly toward alternative ports outside the strait, tearing open a "lifeline of safety" spatially: ① "Overload Surge" at Oman's Port of Sohar: As the most critical cross-border multimodal transshipment hub outside the Gulf, its port arrivals in April surged nearly fivefold MoM. Large batches of Chinese HRC and steel billet originally destined for the inner Gulf were forced ashore here, causing massive congestion at the port in May as cross-border heavy truck capacity collapsed. ② "Western Route Counterflow" at Saudi Arabia's Jeddah Port: Saudi Arabia abandoned its eastern sea route (Dammam Port) nationwide, forcibly redirecting all Chinese orders to Jeddah on the Red Sea side, causing its throughput to surge to a peak of 361,000 mt in April. Source: SMM, Google Maps However, it should be noted that while cargo can be transferred via other ports in the short term, port arrivals in May have already shown a weakening trend again. The reason is that alternative ports outside the Gulf simply cannot handle such massive and concentrated cargo volumes, leading to extremely severe congestion. According to SMM's survey, because navigation within the Gulf is no longer possible, some shipping lines originally bound for Jebel Ali had to divert to Fujairah, but are still queuing for berths. Jeddah Port faces similar issues. With tight capacity, prices keep surging, and transportation faces severe obstacles. Source: SMM Outlook for Change: With the US-Iran blockade-lifting deal, what impact will the shipping supply chain face? After 108 days of the "dual blockade" (Iran's blockade of the strait and the US's counter-blockade of Iranian ports) that gripped the lifeline of global energy and commodities, the US and Iran officially issued successive high-profile statements announcing a ceasefire memorandum of understanding. The relevant timeline is summarized below. Data source: Compiled by SMM from public channels The news, once released, triggered a strong market reaction. On one hand, there are expectations for export increments from shipping recovery; on the other hand, there are certain demand expectations for post-disaster reconstruction. According to the latest SMM survey, most exporters have not responded enthusiastically to the lifting of the blockade and remain skeptical about its actual implementation. Therefore, from the perspective of actual order-taking, shipments to the Middle East still need 3 to 4 weeks to be verified. If a full lifting is confirmed, the "demand backlog" caused by the earlier shipping disruptions will see a concentrated release. Based on past customs data and the local supply-demand balance table, SMM roughly predicts that finished steel products will experience strong growth expectations, potentially filling a disaster-induced gap of approximately 1.7-2.1 million mt. Among them, HRC accounts for the highest proportion (29%) of China's finished steel exports to the Middle East. Although the Middle East's largest flat steel giant, Iran's Mobarakeh Steel Company (MSC), has reported production resumptions for its blast furnace previously damaged by war, its capacity is in a post-disaster repair phase and is not expected to fill the local gap in the short term. However, recent market rumors suggest that Indian resources are seizing the Middle Eastern market at lower prices, which will also pose some impact on China's export order-taking. However, for semi-finished products, the reason Chinese steel billets have been "hot" in recent months is the supply gap caused by the strait blockade and the bombing of Iranian steel mills. Once Iran's logistics fully recover, Chinese steel billets will lose their advantage in absolute price, logistics distance, and surrounding multilateral competition, and the demand gap in Southeast Asia previously filled by substituting Iranian sources may also be reclaimed. Recently, according to SMM surveys, billet resources are already circulating in the Middle Eastern market. Through the following comparison of comprehensive landed costs (CFR) for billets in the Middle East, it can be clearly seen that Chinese resources are under comprehensive pressure: Source: SMM Therefore, steel billet exports to the Middle East are expected to be somewhat limited, with competition only possible at lower prices. Preliminary forecasts indicate a pressure reduction of 50,000–250,000 mt. However, we need to broaden our perspective to the global multilateral trade context, and we must not fall into excessive pessimism due to localized marginal reductions. Although the billets exported to the Middle East are under pressure, the incremental steel billet volumes that previously replaced Iranian exports to Southeast Asia may not necessarily be wiped out. Given the uncertainty of the Middle East situation and based on considerations of a more stable supply chain, Southeast Asian buyers may continue to source from Chinese suppliers. Therefore, against the backdrop of an overall steel recovery and resilience in steel billet prices, SMM maintains its earlier view, holding a moderately optimistic stance on annual steel exports, with expectations of "steady incremental growth." Finally, it needs to be added that, currently, due to severe port congestion, even if the strait is confirmed passable, it will still take a long time for actual cargo to arrive and cannot immediately be reflected in the data. At the same time, ocean freight rates will also maintain high-level fluctuations in the short term due to unfavorable port cargo pick-up. 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