Around July 20, 2026, June import and export data for cobalt and lithium battery industry chain related products were released in a concentrated manner. The data showed that China's spodumene imports reached 768,000 mt in physical content, up 13% MoM and surging 33% YoY, equivalent to approximately 72,000 mt of LCE. For lithium carbonate, China imported 25,861 mt in June, down 31% MoM but up 46% YoY. Cumulative lithium carbonate imports from January to June reached 179,000 mt, up 52% YoY... SMM compiled the H1 import and export situation of battery materials as follows: Upstream Lithium Concentrates In June 2026, China's spodumene imports reached 768,000 mt in physical content, up 13% MoM and surging 33% YoY, equivalent to approximately 72,000 mt of LCE. By source country: The effect of concentrated shipments from Australia at its fiscal year-end manifested, with port arrivals exceeding 370,000 mt in June, up 12% MoM. Mali: Port arrivals increased significantly MoM to 60,000 mt. South Africa and Nigeria maintained stable output, with port arrivals staying above 110,000 mt. Among them, the share of high-grade ore from Nigeria increased, with concentrates accounting for over 65%. Zimbabwe, affected by transportation efficiency earlier, saw arrivals of 42,000 mt in June, which pulled back MoM. Based on SMM's data screening, the total LCE equivalent of incoming ore in June was 72,000 mt. Notably, the proportion of lithium concentrates in total incoming ore fell to 72%, a MoM decline, mainly because most of the 65,000 mt from Brazil was previously traded lithium raw ore powder, which dragged down the overall concentrate share. In June 2026, China's total imports of lithium raw materials (spodumene + lithium sulfate) approached 80,000 mt of LCE, staying in a high range and providing a solid raw material base for the continuously climbing domestic lithium chemical production. Spodumene: Import Volume Continues to Rise, Australian Fiscal Year-End Push Contributes Significantly In June, China's spodumene imports reached 768,000 mt in physical content, up 13% MoM and surging 33% YoY, equivalent to approximately 72,000 mt of LCE. The import volume has maintained high growth for several consecutive months, reflecting that domestic lithium chemical plants' rigid demand for upstream ore remains strong. Source: China Customs, Compiled by SMM From a grade structure perspective, based on SMM's data screening, the proportion of lithium concentrates in total incoming ore in June fell to 72%, a MoM decline. The main drag was Brazil—its arrivals of 65,000 mt that month were mostly previously traded lithium raw ore powder; the concentrated arrivals of such low-grade minerals directly pulled down the overall proportion of concentrates. Besides spodumene, the import performance of another lithium raw material, lithium sulfate, is also worth noting. In June, China's lithium sulfate imports reached 13,500 mt, up 12% MoM, equivalent to over 7,700 mt of LCE. From the source perspective, Chile continued to dominate the supply landscape of this product with an absolute volume of 13,400 mt. Meanwhile, lithium sulfate imports from Zimbabwe also quietly rose to over one hundred mt. Although the absolute volume is still small, as the first batch shipment of lithium sulfate to China from the country, it marked the first step for subsequent regular supply growth from Zimbabwe. Summary: Raw material support was solid in June, but tightening expectations for the availability side are rising in July. In terms of total volume, combined imports of spodumene and lithium sulfate in June were equivalent to nearly 80,000 mt of LCE. Together with domestic lithium concentrate production of over 30,000 mt, total domestic lithium raw material supply reached over 110,000 mt of LCE in the month, providing ample and relatively solid raw material support for lithium chemical production fluctuating at highs in June. However, beneath the relatively optimistic aggregate data, one key variable deserves attention: Most of the June arrivals had their destinations locked in through orders weeks or even months earlier, with only a low proportion of cargo actually entering the freely tradeable circulation of traders. The continuation of this pre-locked structure means that entering July, the available volume for spot lithium ore in the spot market will remain tight. If downstream just-in-time procurement pace stays unchanged, the tightening of circulating supply will constrain lithium chemical plants' flexibility in securing raw materials to some extent, thereby limiting the further room for lithium carbonate production growth in July—a transmission effect already reflected in SMM's recent weekly lithium carbonate production data. Regarding spot prices for spodumene concentrates (CIF China), SMM data showed that the overall trend in June was a decline. As of June 30, the average spot price for spodumene concentrates (CIF China) was $2,260/mt, down $328/mt from $2,588/mt at the beginning of the month, representing a 12.67% decline. According to SMM, in June, enterprises extracting lithium from externally purchased spodumene saw their spot profits fall into deep losses. The losses continued to widen during the month, mainly because spodumene concentrate prices pulled back along with lithium carbonate but to a limited extent. In June, the decline in spodumene concentrate prices was less than that of lithium chemicals, leading to deepening losses in the processing segment. For externally purchased lepidolite, the immediate profit margin of enterprises extracting lithium from externally purchased lepidolite narrowed in June compared to May, but they still maintained positive immediate profits for the full month. The resumption of production at a leading mine in Jiangxi strengthened market expectations for longer-term supply release, and lithium carbonate futures plummeted 6.58% on the day. Additionally, the lithium carbonate market experienced an extreme trend of "sharp decline—weak rebound—further bottoming" in the fourth week of June, further squeezing the profit margins of enterprises relying on externally purchased ore. Lithium Carbonate According to customs data, China imported 25,861 mt of lithium carbonate in June, down 31% MoM but up 46% YoY. Of this, imports from Chile reached 16,037 mt, accounting for 62% of the total; imports from Argentina were 8,403 mt, representing 32% of the total; and imports from Indonesia stood at 500 mt, making up 2% of the total. China's cumulative imports of lithium carbonate from January to June totaled 179,000 mt, up 52% YoY. In May, China exported 261 mt of lithium carbonate, up 30% MoM but down 39% YoY. Cumulative exports from January to June reached 2,348 mt, down 5.6% YoY. According to SMM spot price data, the spot price of lithium carbonate generally declined in June. As of June 30, the spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell to 156,500 yuan/mt, a drop of 22,500 yuan/mt from 179,000 yuan/mt at the beginning of June, representing a decline of 12.57%. SMM understands that the price center of spot lithium carbonate in China drifted lower in June. From a fundamental perspective, the supply side was disrupted by news of mine license renewals in Jiangxi, and China's lithium carbonate imports reached historic highs in May, while GFEX warrants remained elevated around 50,000 mt. The demand growth expectations were within market expectations, leading to a drift lower in prices. Upstream lithium chemical plants showed weak willingness to sell spot orders, maintaining an attitude of holding prices firm and holding back from selling; downstream material plants and battery cell manufacturers adopted a buy-the-dip strategy, engaging in substantial dip-buying for stockpiling when prices fell below 160,000 yuan/mt. As of July 23, the spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose 3,500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, reaching 142,000-151,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 146,500 yuan/mt. Lithium Hydroxide According to customs data, in June 2026, China imported 4,400 mt of lithium hydroxide, up 12% MoM and surging nearly 2-fold YoY. By source country, imports from South Korea were 1,159 mt (26% of total), Chile ranked second with 993 mt, and notably, imports from Indonesia remained low at only 774 mt in June. In exports, China’s lithium hydroxide exports in June reached 6,018 mt, up 70% MoM, mainly driven by concentrated quarter-end shipments and a modest recovery in overseas demand. Of this total, exports to South Korea were 5,032 mt, and to Japan 679 mt. Overall, exports significantly exceeded imports during the month, and China's lithium hydroxide trade temporarily returned to a net export position after many months. Battery Materials LFP In June 2026, China’s LFP cathode export market experienced an "explosive" growth with both volume and price rising. June total exports reached 15,379.6 mt, surging 101.7% MoM from May, setting a new monthly record high. Along with the jump in export volume, the average monthly export price rose to $9,125.1/mt, an increase of about 11.1%. Price side, generally, raw material exports would see price declines due to scale effects, but in June, the average LFP export price ($9,125.1/mt), compared with May’s $8,210/mt, rose by $915/mt, mainly driven by cost pass-through: domestic lithium carbonate and iron phosphate prices both rose in June, directly pushing up export prices. June exports doubling MoM confirmed our assessment in last month’s flash report — “overseas demand remained robust, with several-fold YoY growth.” Overseas battery capacity is in a critical transition phase from “start-up” to “ramp-up,” creating a “rising volume and price” dividend period for the industry. For domestic material enterprises, locking in long-term contracts with core clients in North America, Europe, and Southeast Asia, and enhancing technological barriers, will be key to capturing high-premium overseas market share in H2. (Data sources: SMM and customs import/export statistics) [SMM Analysis] Volume and Price Both Surge! China’s LFP Exports Soared 101% MoM in June, Average Price Exceeded $9,100/Mt, Hitting a New High for the Year LiPF6 According to China Customs data, in June 2026, China’s cumulative LiPF6 exports were approximately 1,104.4 mt, down about 26.4% MoM, and cumulative LiPF6 imports were around 24.4 mt. In exports, China’s LiPF6 exports in June 2026 were about 1,104.4 mt, down about 26.4% MoM from May and down about 21.4% YoY. Specifically, major destinations included Poland (336.8 mt, down 25.47% MoM), South Korea (319.738 mt, down 45.9% MoM), Malaysia (113.211 mt, down 28.03% MoM), the US (157.601 mt, up 103.62% MoM), and Japan (115.56 mt, up 5.2% MoM). Overall, procurement volume of LiPF6 from outside China edged down in June. Artificial Graphite In June 2026, China's artificial graphite imports stood at 1,002 mt, up 2.3% MoM and up 3.3% YoY. As for import average price, in June 2026, the average import price of China's artificial graphite was 59,596 yuan/mt, down 0.9% MoM but up 16.6% YoY. Data sources: China Customs, SMM In June 2026, China's artificial graphite exports stood at 41,601 mt, down 16.9% MoM and down 18.7% YoY. As for export average price, in June 2026, the average export price of China's artificial graphite was 9,080 yuan/mt, up 17.5% MoM and up 13.9% YoY. Import side, volume and price fluctuations were relatively mild, and overall operations were stable. Export side, however, showed a 'volume down, price up' differentiation characteristic: the decline in export volume may be related to the high base in May and adjustments in overseas procurement pace at a certain stage; the rise in export average price was mainly driven by the continued pass-through of high domestic costs. Notably, although total exports declined, shipments of artificial graphite for lithium batteries from major exporting provinces showed a rebound, with one province's exports surging about 50% MoM and another province's MoM growth approaching 25%. Flake Graphite In June 2026, China's flake graphite imports stood at 4,147 mt, down 30% MoM and down 12% YoY. Data sources: China Customs, SMM In June 2026, China's flake graphite exports stood at 5,089 mt, down 33% MoM and down 5% YoY. In June, both imports and exports of flake graphite saw significant MoM declines, primarily due to the high base effect in May and seasonal demand adjustments in and outside China, with relatively mild YoY declines. Phosphoric Acid According to China Customs data, in Q2 2026, China's phosphoric acid exports exhibited a clear retreat after rapid rise, with exports shooting up to 40,200 mt in May before pulling back to 29,500 mt in June, down 26.5% MoM, but still achieved positive YoY growth compared to June last year (up 3,500 mt), as the continued expansion of rigid demand for new energy outside China offset the short-term pacing pullback. Based on the full-year policy pace and industry fundamentals, China's phosphoric acid trade is now displaying the distinct characteristics of zero imports, pure exports, strong policy-driven volatility, and continuous structural upgrade , with annual exports being influenced by both the agricultural input supply assurance policies and the seasonal cycles in and outside China, leading to an overall pattern of regular consolidating movements. ....... Based on the operating pace in H1 and considering the current policy cycle, overseas demand rhythm, and domestic spot fundamentals, in H2 2026 (July–August), the phosphoric acid industry remains in the window period for phosphate fertiliser export controls, with agricultural crude phosphoric acid exports restricted and the overall export volume subject to a natural ceiling. Supported by the release of off-season restocking demand from overseas food and energy storage enterprises, phosphoric acid exports are expected to recover slightly from the June low, returning to above the monthly average of 30,000 mt, slightly offsetting the pressure of inventory buildup during the domestic agricultural off-season and using the resilience of external demand to firm up the market bottom. Entering September–December, the industry fundamentals and foreign trade landscape will see significant improvement. On August 31, the phosphate fertiliser export control policy officially expires. Coupled with concentrated restocking by overseas agricultural input companies in Q4, year-end capacity sprint by domestic LFP enterprises, and concentrated delivery of overseas lithium battery long-term contract orders, phosphoric acid exports will enter the peak period of the year, with monthly export volume expected to exceed 40,000 mt and hit a new high for the year. The industry’s overall export volume and trade surplus will rise simultaneously. The dual boost from domestic and external demand will drive the industry’s market conditions into an upward inflection point, with not only wet process phosphoric acid demand continuing to recover, but thermal process phosphoric acid also benefiting from concentrated stockpiling in food and electronic fine chemicals, strengthening simultaneously, ushering in a peak season where both wet and thermal processes thrive. Phosphate Ore In H1 2026 (January–June), China’s phosphate ore imports stood at 998,200 mt, up 29.66% YoY; exports at 133,900 mt, up 225.91% YoY; net imports at 864,300 mt. Four Key Changes 1. Imports Recovered to the 2024 High Level . H1 2026 imports of 998,200 mt grew 29.66% from 769,800 mt in H1 2025, recovering to the level of 986,600 mt in H1 2024. In 2026, the single-month high was 243,900 mt in January, followed by secondary peaks of 206,600 mt in April and 182,100 mt in March. The import side rebounded significantly from the trough of 769,800 mt in H1 2025, confirming that the "high import" center has been established since 2024. 2. Exports Tripled, Hitting a Nearly 4-Year High . H1 2026 exports of 133,900 mt surged 225.91% from 41,100 mt in H1 2025, the highest level since H1 2023 (191,300 mt). In June alone, imports reached 50,900 mt, followed by 32,200 mt in May and 11,100 mt in April, forming a volume expansion structure in Q2, which closely aligns with the event window of Egypt's announcement on May 13 to halt new phosphate ore export contracts (shifting to higher value-added phosphate fertiliser exports). 3. Net imports remain high but narrowed . In 2026 H1, net imports stood at 864,300 mt, significantly higher than 942,800 mt in 2024 H1 (historical peak) and 728,700 mt in 2025 H1, reflecting the persistent supply gap of phosphate ore in China and continued high external dependence. 4. The seasonal pattern between H1 and H2 was disrupted. Historically, H1 imports were typically lower than H2 (cumulative H2 imports from 2020 to 2025 reached 2.7531 million mt, significantly higher than H1), but 2026 H1 imports of 998,200 mt already approached 2025 H2's 949,900 mt—the traditional winter stockpiling season in Q3-Q4 was delayed, and the import pace became more evenly distributed throughout the year. ......... Outlook for H2: Imports: H1 imports already reached 998,200 mt , and with winter stockpiling procurement + LFP cathode material stockpiling (preparing for the NEV peak season in Q3-Q4), 2026 H2 imports are expected to reach 1.1-1.3 million mt, with full-year imports at 2.1-2.3 million mt, up 15%-25% YoY, marking a historical high since 2023. Exports : June's 50,900 mt already showed signs of acceleration, with July-September exports projected at 100,000-200,000 mt. In Q4, driven by overseas demand (India, Southeast Asia, Brazil) + export competition restructuring among Egypt/Jordan/Morocco, full-year exports are expected at 200,000-300,000 mt, up 200%-300% YoY. Net imports: 2026 net imports are projected at 1.7-2 million mt, remaining at historically high levels, reflecting the persistent undersupply of phosphate ore in China and continued rising dependence on overseas sources (Egypt/Jordan/Morocco/Kazakhstan/Peru/Algeria). Sulphur & Sulphuric Acid China's Monthly Sulphur Imports (2025 H1 vs. 2026 H1) In 2026 H1, China's sulphur imports showed a "monthly accelerating contraction" trend. Cumulative imports from January to June were approximately 2.26 million mt , a sharp decline of 57.7% compared to 5.34 million mt in the same period of 2025, with average monthly imports plummeting from around 800,000 mt in 2025 to about 380,000 mt. On a monthly basis, imports in January–March stayed around 500,000 mt (496,000/538,000/516,000 mt); from April, they plunged off a cliff , with April plunging to 296,000 mt and May to 268,000 mt, and June hitting 147,000 mt (down 85.1% YoY) — June monthly imports fell to less than 20% of the same period in 2025 (988,000 mt). Historically, total imports in 2025 were about 9.61 million mt , with a monthly average of about 800,000 mt and stable volume, while the 147,000 mt in June 2026 marked a rarely seen low in recent years . If geopolitical conflicts and Kazakhstan's export ban persist, H2 imports may face further pressure, with the full-year total expected to be only about 40% of the 2025 level . ....... Sulphur Imports: Volume Plunge and Source Restructuring — In H1 2026, imports were about 2.26 million mt, down 57.7% YoY (June down 85% YoY); the share of four Middle Eastern countries was cut in half (from ~35% to ~20%), with South Korea, Oman, and Canada filling the gap (combined ~58%). Sulphuric Acid Exports: Ban Leads to Zero Clearance — In H1 2026, exports were about 780,000 mt, down 64% YoY; June exports were only about 980 mt, down 99.7% YoY , plunging out of the global market; Indonesia emerged as the top destination. Common Logic: The dual effects of geopolitical conflict and export controls have pushed China from a global sulphur resource hub towards self-preserving contraction. In terms of cobalt, Cobalt Hydrometallurgy Intermediate Products In June 2026, China's imports of cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products totaled about 10,961 mt in physical content, up 324% MoM and down 42% YoY, of which imports from the DRC were about 10,815 mt in physical content, up 423% MoM and down 43% YoY. The average import price of cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products in June 2026 was $16,352/mt, down 1.54% MoM. Out of the monthly imported intermediate products, about 7,561 mt in physical content entered Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces via Entrepot Trade by Customs Special Control Area, accounting for 69% of total imports; ordinary trade accounted for about 2,849 mt in physical content, or 26%; and processing trade with imported materials accounted for about 550 mt in physical content, or 5%. Unwrought Cobalt In June 2026, China's imports of unwrought cobalt were about 1,120 mt, up 66% MoM and up 105% YoY. In June, by country, the top three sources of refined cobalt imports were Indonesia, Russia, and Madagascar, with imports of 476 mt, 293 mt, and 148 mt, respectively. Although China's refined cobalt price pulled back significantly in June, the import and export windows remained fully closed. However, due to weak ex-China refined cobalt demand, some overseas traders still chose to ship refined cobalt to China, leading to a significant increase in imports. China's average unwrought cobalt import price in June 2026 was $52,228/mt, down 4.27% MoM. Cumulative imports in January-June 2026 were 7,709 mt, up 118% YoY. On the export side, China's unwrought cobalt exports in June 2026 were approximately 503 mt, up 36% MoM and down 46% YoY. By country, the top three export destinations were the US, Taiwan, China, and the Netherlands, with exports of 132 mt, 125 mt, and 66 mt, respectively. The average export price of unwrought cobalt from China in June 2026 was $59,579/mt, up 11.56% MoM. Cumulative exports in January-June 2026 were 2,664 mt, down 76% YoY.

POSCO Future M is moving ahead with manufacturing innovation by applying artificial intelligence (AI) across its entire production process. The company announced on July 28 that it has set “Battery of Things (BoT) Ecosystem Game Changer” as its digital innovation vision and established a roadmap for process standardization and company-wide, data-driven AI transformation (AX). POSCO Future M plans to complete the establishment of an AI-based manufacturing innovation system by the first half of 2028. At manufacturing sites, the company aims to introduce physical AI that analyzes equipment and production data in real time to control processes, with the goal of increasing productivity by 30%.

This week, the ex-China rare earth market saw mediocre trading, with prices generally stable. Trading volume pulled back due to the summer break and export approvals. Geopolitically, the Malaysian parliament was reviewing the supply agreement between Lynas and the US Department of Defense, stirring domestic controversy. On the supply side, Lynas’ Q2 production rose 8%, but Pr-Nd output was cut and heavy rare earth production commenced for the first time; exploration projects in Namibia and California made progress. On the demand side, an institutional report noted that AI is becoming the third major growth driver for rare earths, after defense and electrification, and is expected to account for 3% of magnet consumption by 2030.

According to combined data from the General Administration of Customs and SMM, China's total imports of lithium raw materials (spodumene + lithium sulfate) approached 80,000 tonnes in lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in June 2026, remaining at elevated levels and providing a solid feedstock base for the continued rise in domestic lithium salt production. Spodumene: Import Volumes Continue to Climb, Australian Year‑End Shipment Surge Contributes Significantly In June, China's spodumene imports reached 768,000 physical tonnes, up 13% month‑on‑month and 33% year‑on‑year, equivalent to approximately 72,000 tonnes LCE. The import scale has maintained a high growth trajectory for several consecutive months, reflecting robust end‑user demand from domestic lithium salt producers for upstream ore feed. A clear divergence in supply sources emerged: Australia remained the dominant supplier, with the year‑end fiscal push by mines fully materialising in June. Arrivals exceeded 370,000 tonnes, up 12% month‑on‑month, broadly in line with market expectations for quarter‑end shipment concentration. As the anchor of China's spodumene supply, Australia's stable shipments set the tone for the month's total imports. Mali saw arrivals rise significantly month‑on‑month to 60,000 tonnes, providing a phased incremental supply for related smelters' production needs. South Africa and Nigeria both maintained steady performance, with arrivals from each exceeding 110,000 tonnes. Notably, the share of high‑grade concentrate in Nigerian ore continued to rise, exceeding 65%, extending the trend of grade structure optimisation. Zimbabwe, affected by earlier export restrictions and cross‑border transport inefficiencies, saw arrivals fall back to 42,000 tonnes in June, a month‑on‑month decline, indicating persistent short‑term supply volatility. In terms of grade composition, SMM data show that the share of lithium concentrate in total arrivals fell to 72% month‑on‑month. The main drag came from Brazil – its 65,000 tonnes of arrivals were mostly previously booked lithium raw ore fines, the concentration of which pulled down the overall concentrate ratio. Lithium Sulfate: Imports Accelerate Month‑on‑Month, Zimbabwe Makes Its First Supply Breakthrough In addition to spodumene, lithium sulfate imports also deserve attention. In June, China's lithium sulfate imports reached 13,500 tonnes, up 12% month‑on‑month, equivalent to over 7,700 tonnes LCE. By source, Chile continued to dominate the supply landscape with 13,400 tonnes. Meanwhile, imports from Zimbabwe quietly exceeded the 100‑tonne level for the first time – although still small in absolute terms, this marks the country's first bulk shipment of lithium sulfate to China, heralding the potential for future normalised supply from Zimbabwe. Overall Assessment: June Feedstock Support Solid, but Tightening Spot Availability in July Raises Concerns In aggregate, combined spodumene and lithium sulfate imports in June reached nearly 80,000 tonnes LCE. Together with domestic lithium concentrate production of over 30,000 tonnes, total domestic lithium raw material supply exceeded 110,000 tonnes LCE for the month, providing ample and relatively stable feedstock support for the high operating rates of lithium salt production in June. However, beneath the seemingly upbeat headline figures, a key variable warrants attention: the majority of June's arriving cargoes had been pre‑locked via contracts weeks or even months in advance, leaving only a small share available for free‑trading spot circulation. The persistence of this pre‑locked structure implies that spot market availability of lithium ore will remain tight in July. If downstream rigid‑demand procurement paces hold steady, the tightening of available spot supply will constrain lithium salt producers' flexibility in raw material sourcing to some extent, thereby limiting the further upside room for lithium carbonate output in July – a transmission effect that has already been reflected in recent SMM weekly lithium carbonate production data. Source: General Administration of Customs of China, SMM

Dear Users, To standardise the statistical scope of mine-level production data and improve consistency with mining companies’ official reporting practices, SMM will adjust the zinc concentrate production indicators related to Romina and Paragsha in Peru under the following two datasets: SMM Global Zinc Concentrate Production by Mine and SMM: Global Zinc Concentrate Production by Mine: Quarterly . Starting from Q2 2026 , SMM will discontinue separate updates to the following quarterly indicator: Peru – Romina Starting from 2026 , SMM will discontinue separate updates to the following annual indicators: Paragsha Paragsha-estimate Romina Romina-estimate In line with the operational structure of the relevant projects and the companies’ reporting scope, production associated with Romina will be included under the Alpamarca indicator, while production associated with the Paragsha processing plant will be included under the Cerro de Pasco indicator. Going forward, users may refer to the quarterly and annual zinc concentrate production data for Alpamarca and Cerro de Pasco , respectively. This adjustment is intended to avoid potential double counting or inconsistencies arising from differences in statistical boundaries, and to further improve the consistency and accuracy of SMM’s global mine-level zinc concentrate production data. Thank you for your understanding and continued interest in and support for SMM data products. For any enquiries, please contact: Yueang He Pb & Zn Analyst – SMM London Office Email: yueanghe@smm.cn Tel./WhatsApp: +44 7522 173725

In H1 2026, the overseas bauxite market was generally characterized by high shipment levels, growing imports, a year-on-year decline in prices but a recovery within the year, stronger policy disturbances, and rising energy and freight costs. In particular, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed up oil prices and dry bulk freight rates, becoming an important cost-side factor supporting Guinea bauxite CIF China prices. On the supply side, bauxite shipments from Guinea’s major ports maintained significant year-on-year growth, making Guinea the core source of overseas bauxite supply increments. Australian shipments were generally stable, although local weather disruptions in March caused a temporary decline in shipments from major ports. In terms of domestic import structure, as June customs import data by country has not yet been released, this article mainly observes import changes from January to May 2026. Data shows that domestic bauxite imports continued to grow year-on-year during January-May 2026, with the source structure becoming increasingly concentrated in Guinea. On the price side, imported bauxite prices in H1 2026 were significantly lower than the same period in 2025, but prices did not continue to decline throughout the year. Since March, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have pushed up international oil prices and dry bulk freight costs, leading to a significant increase in Guinea bauxite CIF China prices. Around the Labour Day holiday and again in mid-to-late June, market rumours repeatedly suggested that the Guinean government might introduce bauxite export quota-related policies. Although no such policies were officially implemented within the expected timeframe, these rumours disrupted the transaction pace between buyers and sellers and provided support to forward price expectations. At the same time, after the Chinese New Year holiday, imported bauxite raw material inventories at domestic alumina refineries remained at elevated levels, while port inventories of imported bauxite continued to accumulate after March and throughout H1, limiting further upside in spot prices. Overall, the overseas bauxite market in H1 2026 did not face an absolute shortage. Instead, it showed a pattern of relatively loose physical supply but tightening expectations from costs and policy risks. High Guinean shipments supported arrivals of imported bauxite in the domestic market, but the high concentration of domestic import sources in Guinea also made the market more sensitive to Guinean policy changes, rainy-season shipment disruptions, freight rate fluctuations, and changes in long-term contract prices. Price: Still Low YoY, but CIF Prices Recovered in Stages During the Year According to SMM data, in January-June 2026, the average SMM Imported Bauxite CIF Index stood at around $66.37/mt, down around 26.0% from the same period in 2025. The average Guinea bauxite CIF China price was around $65.88/mt, down around 25.8% year-on-year. The average Australia high-temperature bauxite CIF China price was around $56.93/mt, down around 23.0% year-on-year. The average Australia low-temperature bauxite CIF China price was around $61.63/mt, down around 24.1% year-on-year. From a year-on-year perspective, imported bauxite prices in H1 2026 remained significantly below the same period last year. However, from an intra-year perspective, imported bauxite prices first declined and then recovered. In early January, the SMM Imported Bauxite CIF Index was around $68.35/mt, while Guinea bauxite CIF China was around $67.5/mt. By late February, Guinea bauxite CIF China had once fallen to around $60/mt. After entering March, rising oil prices and freight costs amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed up the landed cost of Guinea bauxite delivered to China. On March 2, Guinea bauxite CIF China was around $62/mt; by March 20, it had risen to $66.5/mt, and by the end of March it further increased to $68.5/mt. It is worth noting that in March, the increase in Guinea CIF prices was significantly greater than the change in FOB prices. SMM data shows that Guinea bauxite FOB was around $37.5/mt on March 2, rose to $38.5/mt on March 20, and remained near $38.5/mt at the end of March. Over the same period, the Guinea CIF-FOB spread widened from around $24.5/mt to around $30/mt. Overall, the March increase in Guinea CIF prices was not entirely driven by mine-side quotations. Freight rates, energy costs, trading premiums, and forward supply risk expectations all provided support to landed prices. From late April to early May, the market heard rumours that the Guinean government might announce bauxite export quota-related policies during the Labour Day holiday. As a result, transaction activity between buyers and sellers slowed significantly, and the market turned cautious. In terms of price performance, Guinea bauxite CIF China remained largely stable at around $67.5/mt between April 24 and May 8, while the SMM Imported Bauxite CIF Index also stayed near $67.52/mt. Prices mainly moved sideways and did not break out significantly. As no related policy was officially introduced during the Labour Day period, market transactions gradually recovered in mid-May, and Guinea bauxite CIF China edged up to around $68/mt. Entering June, Guinean policy expectations once again disturbed the market. Around the Dragon Boat Festival, market rumours again suggested that the Guinean government might introduce export quota-related policies between mid-June and early July. At the same time, market participants were waiting for the release of July long-term contract prices, causing buyers and sellers to turn cautious again. In terms of prices, Guinea bauxite CIF China rose from around $68/mt in early June to around $69.5/mt in mid-June, and further increased to around $71/mt by the end of June. For Guinea monthly long-term contract prices, the price stood at $67/mt in January 2026, fell to $62/mt in February, rebounded to $63/mt in March, remained at $70/mt from April to June, and further increased to $71/mt in July. The firm long-term contract price also provided certain support to the spot market. Shipments: Guinea Maintained High Growth, while Australia Saw a Temporary Weather-Related Decline in March Due to the limited disclosure frequency of overseas mine production data, this article uses weekly shipments from major ports as a reference indicator for observing overseas bauxite exportable supply trends. For monthly comparison, all monthly shipment data mentioned in this article is calculated by allocating weekly shipment data to corresponding months based on the proportion of calendar days. According to SMM statistics, in January-June 2026, bauxite shipments from Guinea’s major ports totalled around 115.1357 million mt, up around 26.5% from the same period in 2025. By month, shipments from Guinea’s major ports increased by around 40.2% YoY in January, 35.1% YoY in February, 28.7% YoY in March, 31.5% YoY in April, 10.9% YoY in May, and 13.5% YoY in June. Overall, Guinean shipments remained high in H1 and continued to serve as the main source of overseas bauxite supply growth. In terms of shipment structure, high Guinean shipments reflected continued release of mine and port export capacity, while also supporting high arrivals of imported bauxite in the domestic market. At the same time, Guinea’s rising share in the domestic import structure means that the market has become increasingly sensitive to local policy changes, weather conditions, port operations, and shipping conditions. For Australia, bauxite shipments from major ports totalled around 21.6586 million mt in January-June 2026, down around 3.7% year-on-year. Overall performance was relatively stable, but its incremental supply elasticity was weaker than Guinea’s. Australia’s shipments fell notably in March, mainly due to local weather disruptions and related natural events. Weekly data shows that Australian bauxite shipments from major ports declined significantly during March, with shipments from Weipa falling to a low level in late March. After entering April, shipments from Australia’s major ports recovered quickly. This indicates that the weather disruption had more of a temporary impact on shipments rather than representing a sustained supply contraction. Import Structure: Domestic Imports Grew YoY in January-May, with Guinea’s Dominance Further Strengthened On the import side, as June customs import data by country has not yet been released, this article mainly observes domestic bauxite import changes in January-May 2026. According to customs data, domestic bauxite imports totalled around 100.7579 million mt in January-May 2026, up around 18.6% from 84.9571 million mt in the same period of 2025. By country, domestic imports from Guinea reached around 82.5716 million mt in January-May 2026, up around 24.9% from 66.1231 million mt in the same period of 2025. Guinea accounted for around 82.0% of total domestic bauxite imports, up from around 77.8% in the same period last year. This shows that Guinea remained the largest source of domestic imported bauxite, while its dominance in the import structure further strengthened. Australia remained the second-largest source of domestic bauxite imports. In January-May 2026, domestic imports from Australia stood at around 14.4914 million mt, up around 8.2% from 13.3929 million mt in the same period of 2025. However, Australia’s share of total domestic bauxite imports stood at around 14.4%, lower than around 15.8% in the same period last year. Overall, Australian supply remained stable, but its share in the domestic import structure was significantly lower than Guinea’s, and its short-term incremental supply elasticity was relatively limited. Among non-mainstream sources, domestic imports from Sierra Leone reached around 1.0353 million mt in January-May 2026, marking a significant year-on-year increase. Imports from Guyana reached around 747,200 mt, up slightly year-on-year, while imports from Türkiye reached around 559,100 mt, down significantly year-on-year. Overall, non-mainstream sources provided supplementary supply in certain months, but in terms of supply scale, stability, quality compatibility, and logistics conditions, they remain unable to substantially replace Guinea in the short term. From a monthly perspective, domestic bauxite imports remained high in January-May 2026. Imports stood at around 19.2528 million mt in January, 16.9530 million mt in February, 21.7789 million mt in March, 19.7433 million mt in April, and further increased to around 23.0298 million mt in May. May imports were at a high level, with imports from Guinea reaching around 19.6074 million mt and imports from Australia around 3.0259 million mt. High Guinean shipments in earlier periods and continued demand for imported ore from domestic coastal alumina refineries jointly supported import growth. Inventory and Transactions: High Inventories Suppressed Spot Procurement, while Policy Expectations Disrupted Transaction Pace In terms of inventories, according to SMM surveys, imported bauxite raw material inventories at domestic alumina refineries remained at elevated levels after the Chinese New Year holiday. Meanwhile, after geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated in March, domestic port inventories of imported bauxite continued to accumulate throughout H1. With relatively sufficient inventory buffers, downstream alumina refineries had limited acceptance of high-priced spot cargoes. Procurement was mainly conducted on a need-to basis, while some enterprises preferred to observe policy changes, freight rates, and long-term contract price movements before restocking. High inventories also explain a key contradiction in price movements during H1. On the one hand, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed up energy and freight costs, while repeated Guinean policy expectations disturbed market sentiment and supported imported bauxite prices. On the other hand, elevated inventories at alumina refineries and ports meant that spot procurement did not see sustained concentrated buying, and acceptance of high-priced cargoes remained limited, thereby restricting further price upside. Around the Labour Day holiday, the market heard rumours that the Guinean government might announce bauxite export quota-related policies during the holiday period. Transactions between buyers and sellers weakened significantly, and the market entered a wait-and-see mode. As no related policy was officially introduced within the expected timeframe, market transactions gradually recovered after mid-May, but prices only saw a mild recovery. In mid-to-late June, the market again heard rumours that Guinea might introduce quota-related policies between mid-June and early July. Together with uncertainty around July long-term contract prices, transaction activity became cautious again. Therefore, the impact of Guinean policy expectations in H1 2026 was reflected more in transaction pace and price expectations, rather than simply driving a sustained rapid increase in spot prices. Major Events: Cost Disturbances, Australian Weather, and Guinean Policy Expectations Ran Through H1 The major events in the overseas bauxite market in H1 2026 can be divided into three main lines. First, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East in March pushed up oil prices and dry bulk freight costs, driving a rapid recovery in Guinea bauxite CIF China prices. As the Guinea-China route is long, freight rate movements have a significant impact on landed costs. From March to June, Guinea-China bauxite freight rates remained high, once rising to around $36/mt, and fluctuated within a high range. At the same time, persistently high oil prices also pushed up transportation and export costs at Guinean mines. Some mines faced pressure on export margins, and market feedback suggested that some mines reduced shipments in stages or controlled shipment pace during May-June to ease cost pressure. Second, Australia saw a temporary decline in shipments from major ports in March due to local weather disruptions. After allocating weekly shipment data to months based on calendar days, Australian bauxite shipments from major ports stood at around 2.5339 million mt in March, down around 38.8% year-on-year. Among them, shipments from Weipa fell notably in late March. Shipments recovered quickly after entering April, indicating that the disruption was more of a short-term event and had limited impact on the full-year supply structure. Third, Guinean export quota policy expectations repeatedly disturbed the market. Around the Labour Day holiday, market rumours suggested that the Guinean government might announce export quota-related policies, leading to weaker transactions and sideways price movements. However, no such policy was eventually introduced, and market transactions gradually recovered after mid-May. In mid-to-late June, the market again heard rumours that the Guinean government might introduce quota-related policies between mid-June and early July. Together with the pending release of July long-term contract prices, prices again remained firm. Although the policy has not yet been officially implemented, the market has become significantly more sensitive to such news amid the high dependence of domestic imported bauxite on Guinea. Full-Year Outlook: Guinean Policy Risk and Freight Cost Disturbances Continue to Support Forward Price Expectations Looking ahead to H2 2026, the core contradiction in the overseas bauxite market is expected to continue revolving around Guinean policy changes, rainy-season shipments, and freight cost fluctuations. If shipments from Guinea’s major ports remain relatively stable as seen in early July, and Guinea-China freight rates continue to fall, imported bauxite supply is still expected to remain relatively sufficient. Domestic alumina refinery and port inventories may also remain elevated, limiting further upside in spot prices. However, on the risk side, current market rumours still suggest that the Guinean government may introduce bauxite export quota-related policies in H2 2026. If such policies are officially implemented and impose substantial constraints on local mine shipment schedules, Guinean bauxite supply elasticity may be affected, thereby supporting imported bauxite prices. Meanwhile, as Guinea gradually enters its traditional rainy season, mining, inland transportation, and port loading may all face temporary disruptions. Based on historical rainy-season performance, Guinean shipments may decline in certain months, affecting domestic arrival schedules and port inventory digestion. In terms of freight rates, Middle East developments still showed potential for volatility in early July, and the previous easing expectations still require further observation. If geopolitical risks rise again, oil prices and dry bulk freight costs may increase once more. Guinea-China bauxite freight rates may rebound from the current range of around $30-32/mt to $36/mt or even higher, pushing imported bauxite CIF prices higher again. Conversely, if the Middle East situation continues to ease and oil prices and freight rates decline further, Guinea-China freight rates may fall below $30/mt. In that case, some Guinean mines that previously reduced shipments or controlled shipment pace may resume shipments, and market transaction activity may recover. On prices, overseas bauxite prices in H2 are expected to remain constrained on both the upside and downside. On the upside, elevated raw material inventories at domestic alumina refineries and port inventories will limit acceptance of high-priced spot cargoes. If actual supply does not shrink significantly, the momentum for a sustained sharp price increase may be limited. On the downside, Guinean policy expectations, rainy-season disruptions, freight volatility, long-term contract price support, and import source concentration risks all mean that imported bauxite prices lack the basis for a sharp decline. In H2 2026, the market needs to closely monitor whether Guinean export policies are officially implemented, the actual impact of the rainy season on local mines and port shipments, Guinea-China freight rate movements, July and subsequent long-term contract price adjustments, and domestic port inventory digestion. If Guinean shipments remain high and port inventories continue to accumulate, the upside elasticity of imported bauxite prices may remain limited. However, if policy implementation tightens, rainy-season disruptions exceed expectations, or freight rates rise again, Guinea bauxite CIF China prices may still receive periodic support. Conclusion Overall, the overseas bauxite market in H1 2026 was characterized by high shipments, growing imports, a year-on-year price decline but intra-year recovery, and stronger policy disturbances. Guinean shipments increased significantly year-on-year, supporting high domestic bauxite import volumes. Australian shipments recovered after a temporary weather-related decline in March, and overall supply remained relatively stable. In terms of import structure, domestic bauxite imports increased by around 18.6% year-on-year in January-May 2026. Among them, imports from Guinea increased by around 24.9% year-on-year, with its share rising further to around 82.0%, indicating that domestic imported bauxite reliance on Guinea continued to increase. On the price side, imported bauxite prices in H1 2026 were significantly lower than the same period in 2025. However, prices recovered during the year amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, rising oil and freight costs, Guinean export quota policy expectations, and long-term contract price support. At the same time, elevated raw material inventories at alumina refineries after the Chinese New Year holiday and continued port inventory accumulation after March limited further upside in spot prices. Looking ahead, the overseas bauxite market does not lack absolute supply, but the supply structure is highly concentrated. Price volatility is increasingly driven by policy, logistics, freight, and risk premiums rather than a simple supply-demand gap. In H2, Guinean policy implementation, rainy-season shipments, freight rate movements, long-term contract price adjustments, and domestic port inventory digestion will be key factors affecting overseas bauxite prices and import structure changes.

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