Hudbay Minerals held a formal groundbreaking ceremony on Tuesday for the New Ingerbelle expansion project at its Copper Mountain Mine in British Columbia, Canada.The New Ingerbelle expansion is expected to extend the Copper Mountain Mine’s life beyond 2040, improve operational efficiency, and support long-term copper production.The expansion is designed to mine a higher-grade mineralized zone with a stripping ratio approximately one-third that of the current mining area.Based on existing reserve estimates, the New Ingerbelle project is expected to produce approximately 750,000 mt of copper, 900,000 ounces of gold, and 5.5 million ounces of silver over the remaining mine life.

SMM, June 18: This week, trading sentiment weakened somewhat for domestic aluminum fluoride enterprises, with prices running steady. As of now, SMM’s aluminum fluoride reference price is 11,280-11,700 yuan/mt; cryolite prices also held steady, with SMM’s reference price at 7,000-8,500 yuan/mt. Raw material side, the 97% fluorite wet powder market was largely stable, with mainstream delivery-to-factory prices at 3,100-3,400 yuan/mt, and notable price spreads by region. Supply side, mine operating rates in the north continued to recover, and Mongolian imports gradually arrived at ports, resulting in a looser supply-demand pattern; however, a coal mine accident in Shanxi triggered expectations of stricter mine safety and environmental oversight, which may cause periodic disruptions to some mines’ production going forward, leaving a wait-and-see sentiment on the supply side. Demand side remained subdued—downstream hydrofluoric acid enterprises, constrained by insufficient operating rates at refrigerant and fluoropolymer terminals, mainly made just-in-time procurement, with limited large-order follow-through. Consequently, fluorite prices are likely to stay weak in the near term. Meanwhile, the aluminum hydroxide market firmed slightly, with SMM’s weighted average price at 1,683 yuan/mt, up 1.2% WoW; the sulphuric acid market hovered at highs, as sulphur cost support and production cuts for maintenance tightened supply in some regions, but cautious demand during the phosphate fertiliser off-season capped upside room, while LFP and fine chemicals provided just-in-time demand support. Raw material side, both aluminum hydroxide and sulphuric acid strengthened, further lifting overall production costs, yet costs could not be effectively passed downstream, putting the industry as a whole under notable pressure. Supply side, a pattern of ‘rigidly high costs—persistent profit pressure—low operating rates’ persisted, with the industry operating rate holding around 40%, limiting effective incremental supply. Demand side, downstream operating aluminum capacity remained high and stable, providing rigid support, but aluminum smelters focused on just-in-time restocking and pushing for lower prices, adopting a wait-and-see stance without releasing additional demand for the time being. On balance, the aluminum fluoride market currently lacks directional drivers, caught in a tug-of-war stalemate between upstream and downstream, with transactions limited to just-in-time procurement, and prices expected to largely stay steady in the near term, leaving limited room for wild swings. Going forward, close attention should be paid to raw material cost-side dynamics and marginal changes in the procurement pace of downstream aluminum enterprises.

[China's Zinc Concentrate Market] This week, China's zinc concentrate TCs extended their decline. In June, some domestic smelters conducted routine maintenance and cut production, but the overall refined zinc output did not drop significantly MoM. The domestic ore shortage has yet to ease, and close attention will be paid to the operating conditions of smelters going forward.

This week (June 12, 2026 – June 18, 2026), the average operating rate of primary lead smelters across three provinces was 65.19%, down 1.01 percentage points WoW. This week, production at smelters in Henan and Yunnan remained stable, with overall operating rates basically flat WoW. A medium-sized smelter in Hunan began equipment maintenance early in the week, with production expected to resume after maintenance concludes in mid-July, leading to a slight pullback in the regional operating rate. In other regions, a smelter in Jiangxi slightly ramped up production this week following the completion of maintenance, driving the operating rate in east China higher.

Fed Hawkish Signals Exceed Expectations; Precious Metals Under Short-Term Pressure but Downside Limited June 18 — At 2:00 AM Beijing Time on June 18, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, marking the fourth consecutive hold. The statement was significantly shortened in length and removed language hinting at further rate cuts. The dot plot showed nine officials expect a rate hike this year, while newly appointed Chairman Warsh did not submit a dot plot and declined to provide forward guidance. Hawkish signals pushed market pricing for a year-end rate hike up to 38 basis points. From a policy perspective, this FOMC meeting delivered hawkish signals that exceeded market expectations. Combined with the return of rate-hike expectations in the dot plot, it signals that the Fed's communication tone has shifted from "pause and watch" to "potential hiking," putting near-term pressure on precious metals. However, the fourth consecutive hold itself was in line with market expectations, and any actual rate hike still requires more data for validation, so the marginal impact of the policy signal itself is relatively limited. More critically, earlier economic data — U.S. May nonfarm payrolls rose by 172,000, beating expectations, with a combined upward revision of 93,000 for March-April — underscores that labor market resilience remains the most significant headwind suppressing rate-cut expectations and is the core bearish factor for precious metals recently. By contrast, May headline CPI matched expectations while core CPI came in slightly below consensus, meaning inflation data did not reinforce the tightening narrative beyond expectations, and its bearish impact is comparatively moderate. On balance, precious metals face dual pressure from hawkish policy signals and labor market resilience, but the elevated rate-hike expectations are still in the pricing-in phase, and the market may not form a systemic downward resonance at current levels. The trading logic will continue to hinge on subsequent nonfarm payrolls, CPI data, and actual communication from Warsh. US-Iran Peace Talks Advance; Geopolitical Risk Premium Unwinds June 18 — The presidents of the United States and Iran have signed an electronic memorandum of understanding (MoU). The official 14-point text largely matches prior media disclosures, and both sides are set to formally sign the agreement in Switzerland on Friday. Trump stated that if follow-up implementation of the MoU falls short of satisfaction, bombing operations would resume, and also revealed discussions with Syrian leaders on striking Hezbollah. Meanwhile, southern Lebanon witnessed multiple Israeli attacks, and Israel's finance minister indicated no withdrawal on Friday or thereafter. The geopolitical situation remains in a complex tug-of-war characterized by "negotiations alongside conflict." In the near term, the signing of the MoU marks a substantive phase in ceasefire negotiations, with market expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz strengthening, leading to further unwinding of the risk premium. Should the formal agreement be finalized on Friday, structural concerns over crude supply would materially ease, putting downward pressure on the oil price center, which in turn would cool global inflation expectations. From a medium-to-long-term perspective, if sustained oil weakness drives down energy costs, the Fed's monetary policy room would reopen, and market logic could gradually shift from "tightening expectations" toward a "rate-cut cycle," potentially offering new macro support for precious metals. Overall, US-Iran relations are currently in a phase of "peace talks advancing, conflicts unresolved," and market pricing will revolve around Friday's agreement implementation and subsequent execution risks in a repeated back-and-forth manner. Early Hiking Cycle Pressure Does Not Alter Long-Term Logic; Precious Metals' Allocation Value Remains Prominent Historical experience shows that in the early stages of every rate-hiking cycle, precious metals typically come under pressure from rising nominal rates and a stronger dollar, but the trend is not unidirectional downward. As the hiking cycle deepens, growing concerns over recession risks and liquidity stress increasingly highlight gold's role as an inflation hedge and safe-haven asset, with its price center tending to rise in the middle-to-late stages. Therefore, even if the Fed continues on a hawkish path, the pressure on precious metals may not be sustained; liquidity conditions and shifts in macro expectations also influence price dynamics. Of course, our overall bullish long-term logic for precious metals remains unchanged: First, global central banks continue to accumulate gold, with de-dollarization and reserve diversification strategies providing a solid floor for gold prices. Second, the U.S. dollar's credit system faces deep erosion — high interest rates on U.S. Treasuries imply high risk, and over the long run, U.S. debt rollover pressures and fiscal indiscipline are accelerating global de-dollarization. Third, the ever-expanding U.S. government debt stock and deteriorating fiscal sustainability raise the risk of future debt monetization and dollar depreciation. As a non-liability, supra-sovereign hard asset, gold's safe-haven and store-of-value functions hold irreplaceable appeal in the current macro environment. At the same time, geopolitical conflicts continue to simmer without truly subsiding, while global supply chains and energy markets remain volatile, with inflation persistence lingering. These uncertainties will collectively underpin the demand for gold and silver as safe-haven allocation assets, further boosting their strategic value over the medium-to-long term. From the Gold/Silver Ratio Perspective: Silver Under Pressure in the Short Term, but Outperforming Gold in the Medium-to-Long Term Remains Intact Historically, the gold/silver ratio exhibits significant mean-reverting behavior, with its long-term center roughly fluctuating between 60 and 70. However, under extreme macro environments, it can deviate markedly — for instance, the ratio widened sharply after the 2008 financial crisis and approached a historical extreme near 120 during the 2020 pandemic. The underlying dynamic is that during extreme risk-off episodes, the market prioritizes gold as a safe-haven asset, while silver, burdened by its industrial metal characteristics, tends to face systematic selling. Thus, the gold/silver ratio's cyclical movement can be summarized as: widening during crises (silver underperforms) and narrowing during recovery/inflation cycles (silver outperforms). Its essence is a cyclical indicator driven by the alternating dominance of safe-haven attributes versus industrial attributes. In the near term, the gold/silver ratio is more prone to stage-wise upward moves or range-bound drift with an upward bias. On one hand, silver has already posted notable gains, with crowded positioning making it more vulnerable to pullback pressure. On the other hand, the photovoltaic industry — a key pillar of silver industrial demand — is expected to see cell silver consumption decline by 9.51% year-over-year in 2026, and with ongoing silver-reduction progress and evolving cell product structures, annual silver consumption is projected to maintain a roughly 5 percentage-point decline through 2030. Although positive terminal installation expectations may boost cell production volumes, translating to some incremental demand, when converted to silver demand, a roughly 20% decline is anticipated this year. Over the long cycle, 2026 also marks a pivotal turning point in silver's industrial demand structure. The low-voltage electrical equipment sector, as a rigid support segment, exhibits strong irreplaceability in its silver demand. Emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles, PCBs, and SiC chips are rapidly expanding their end-market bases, and despite unchanged unit silver consumption, overall demand continues to grow steadily. Therefore, we maintain our core view that the gold/silver ratio will trend downward in the medium-to-long term — i.e., we are constructive on silver outperforming gold. The driving logic will gradually shift from rates and liquidity toward energy transition and industrial demand. Silver is transforming from a traditional precious metal into a strategically important industrial metal with rising exposure to photovoltaics, AI data centers, and grid upgrades, while supply remains highly inelastic due to its heavy dependence on lead-zinc and copper byproduct production. Once the global economy enters a rate-cutting cycle or real rates decline, silver's industrial elasticity will significantly amplify its upside potential, whereas gold, supported more by central bank buying and safe-haven demand, tends to follow a smoother trajectory.

This week, ferrous metals edged higher before extending their pullback, with coking coal posting the largest decline. At the beginning of the week, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and other departments issued a notice on launching a three-year campaign for energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industries, and news that the U.S. and Iran were to sign a memorandum of understanding on the 19th improved market sentiment, lifting all ferrous metals. In the latter half of the week, expectations for an eighth round of coke price hikes materialized in the futures market. However, as steel mill profits narrowed further and spot coke had largely priced in the eighth increase, further upside room was limited. Combined with emerging expectations of peak hot metal output, futures began to correct and cost support weakened. Meanwhile, May macro data came in below expectations, dragging the entire ferrous metals complex lower...

[Silicon metal futures fluctuate narrowly, spot market largely stable]: Downstream and trader procurement sentiment is cautious, with some users digesting previous low-price inventories. Clients outside China have purchase price expectations lower than current prices, and sentiment for new orders in the market is sluggish. Some users expect to purchase via futures point pricing at around 8,400-8,500 yuan/mt. On the supply side, the increase in operating rates of silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan during the rainy season is already within expectations, with few new variables in the market. As variables on both supply and demand sides are highly deterministic in the short term, market sentiment in the buyer-seller tug-of-war appears rational. The silicon metal price center is expected to remain near the low end of the range in the near term.

[SMM Nickel Flash] This week, the cost trends of high-grade NPI in and outside China diverged once again, with the profitability gap continuing to widen. The cash cost of high-grade NPI in China extended its downward trend, primarily driven by increased arrivals of Philippine nickel ore and persistently weakening prices, directly reducing smelting’s core raw material costs, while overall production costs pulled back in tandem.

[SMM Magnesium Weekly Inventory Brief] This week, social inventories decreased by 3.00% month-on-month, showing a regional divergence. In major production areas, inventory reduction was more pronounced due to the progress of long-term contract deliveries and production cuts by some manufacturers. Meanwhile, Tianjin Port experienced slight inventory accumulation as low-priced resources stimulated traders' stockpiling. Overall, the inventory reduction in production areas provided some bottom support for magnesium prices, but the port inventory accumulation reflects persistent export difficulties, with short-term supply-demand imbalances still awaiting resolution.

SMM Weekly Stainless Steel Futures Review — week of June 15–18, 2026. A mid-week hawkish Fed turn capped an early rally, but supply tightening and firm mill pricing lifted the SHFE board RMB 355/mt on the week of June 15–19.