SMM News on March 20: The most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at around 16,461 yuan/mt intraday. Affected by broad declines across base metals, lead prices moved in a unilateral downward trend overall today, hitting a low of 16,270 yuan/mt during the session. Although prices edged up slightly toward the close, the rebound was limited, and the contract finally closed at 16,290 yuan/mt. A small bearish candlestick was recorded, down 125 yuan/mt, or 0.76%. Supply side, dragged down by low lead prices, suppliers of primary lead showed mediocre willingness to ship, while secondary lead producers held prices firm and were reluctant to sell due to cost pressure, leaving overall transactions sluggish. Demand side, downstream battery plants mainly purchased based on rigid demand under long-term contracts, while wait-and-see sentiment for spot orders remained strong. SMM expects SHFE lead prices to remain in the doldrums. Data Source Statement: Except for public information, all other data is processed and derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

This week (March 12, 2026–March 18, 2026), the average operating rate of primary lead smelters in the three provinces was 62.59, up 1.52 percentage points WoW. This week, production at smelters in Henan fluctuated slightly but increased overall, while a mid-sized smelter in Hunan resumed production this week, contributing the main increase in output; in Yunnan, one smelter slightly raised production, while the resumption of operations at another smelter was delayed until late March. In addition, some small-scale smelters in Yunnan still had no expectations of resuming production due to raw materials, downstream orders, and other factors.

In the spot market, during this week (March 16, 2026-March 20, 2026), downstream battery enterprises gradually resumed operations to full production, and transactions in the spot primary lead market gradually improved. This week, mainstream transaction prices for primary lead in Henan were quoted at parity or slight premiums to the SMM #1 lead average price. Supply in Hunan was relatively tight, and smelters and suppliers quoted premiums of 30-50 yuan/mt over SMM #1 lead, with transactions concluded on just-in-time demand. This week, secondary refined lead was held firm and sellers were reluctant to sell due to losses on production and other factors. After downstream operations gradually resumed, just-in-time procurement mainly focused on primary lead, and spot transactions in the primary lead market improved slightly WoW.

SMM News, March 20: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,911/mt. During the 9:00–12:00 session, LME lead fluctuated rangebound within $1,906–1,915/mt, holding up well overall and touching a high of $1,915.5/mt. After 12:00, LME lead turned into a unilateral downward trend, plunging to a low of $1,872.5/mt. During the night session, LME lead bottomed out, and by the close it fluctuated higher to repair losses to the $1,895–1,898/mt range, finally closing at $1,897/mt, down $16/mt, or 0.84%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at a low of 16,300 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead fluctuated upward and touched a high of 16,480 yuan/mt, then dropped back slightly and fluctuated rangebound within 16,395–16,460 yuan/mt. It finally closed at 16,435 yuan/mt, posting a small bullish candlestick, up 20 yuan/mt, or 0.12%. Yesterday, SHFE lead pulled back. Suppliers of primary lead showed average willingness to ship, while smelter quotes remained stable; supply in the secondary lead market was relatively ample, and smelters held prices firm on shipments, with overall transactions poor. Downstream battery plants maintained full production, mainly purchasing for rigid demand and long-term contracts, while spot order transactions were mediocre. SMM expects lead prices to remain in the doldrums with fluctuations in the short term.

SMM News, March 20: This week, secondary refined lead was mostly quoted at premiums of 0-75 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, with some cargoes available for delivered premiums of 50 yuan/mt. Affected by falling lead prices, downstream wait-and-see sentiment, and relatively cautious procurement, suppliers showed weak willingness to sell, and overall market transactions were sluggish. This week, secondary lead smelters lowered scrap battery purchase prices, easing raw material cost pressure, and losses narrowed WoW; as of March 20, 2026, the theoretical comprehensive profit/loss for large-scale enterprises stood at -337 yuan/mt, versus -541 yuan/mt for small and medium-sized enterprises (the model's by-product revenue did not include tin and antimony). As smelters that resumed production continued to release capacity, ample supply weighed on lead prices. Combined with the wide range of cargo types available to downstream enterprises, spot order premiums for secondary refined lead are expected to narrow next week, while actual prices will still depend on changes in raw material costs. > Subscribe to View Historical SMM Metal Spot Prices

Lead concentrate TCs remained stable this week, but it was no longer common in the Chinese market for silver-bearing lead concentrates to be extremely hard to find. As silver prices remained in the doldrums and there were no bullish expectations for lead prices for the time being, smelters also expected a decline in by-product revenue. As a result, smelters no longer accepted bargaining over lower TC quotes. Demand for all types of raw materials, including lead concentrates and silver-bearing lead concentrates, was mainly driven by rigid demand, and actual transactions were relatively muted. Silver prices retreated from highs, but market traders still held certain expectations for a catch-up rally in silver prices over the medium and long term. At present, the payable indicator for silver in lead concentrates with various silver contents remained stable, and neither mines nor smelters intended to adjust prices.

[Magnesium Prices Stuck in Dilemma: Geopolitical Tensions, Cost Support, and Demand Surge Clash with High Supply] Reviewing the recent magnesium market, magnesium prices repeatedly fluctuated within the 16,600-16,700 range, with a relatively slow pace.

SMM, March 19: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,928.5/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead fluctuated upward, hitting a high of $1,938/mt. It then moved in a narrow range of $1,926-1,935/mt as bulls and bears were evenly matched. Entering the European session, bears took the lead, and LME lead began to fluctuate downward, falling to a low of $1,906/mt, before consolidating in a narrow range of $1,906-1,911/mt. Near the close, LME lead edged up slightly to settle at $1,913/mt, down $13/mt, or 0.67%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,590 yuan/mt. Early in the session, SHFE lead prices surged to a high of 16,675 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward. Although prices rebounded slightly intraday, the rebound was weak, and lead prices again came under pressure and pulled back, fluctuating rangebound within 16,555-16,590 yuan/mt and touching a low of 16,555 yuan/mt during the period. It finally closed at 16,585 yuan/mt, posting a small bearish candlestick, down 65 yuan/mt, or 0.39%. China mine side, lead concentrate TCs remained weak, with some smelters operating at insufficient rates and market supply staying tight. On the imported ore side, the import window opened and expectations for price hikes emerged, but enterprises showed low willingness to pay, limiting additional volumes. Primary lead: inventory at primary lead smelters continued to decline, while suppliers held firm on quotes and showed a clear reluctance to sell. Secondary lead: as losses widened, most secondary lead enterprises stayed on the sidelines and were reluctant to sell, tightening effective supply in the market overall. Downstream battery plants: after restocking demand was met, the procurement pace slowed down, and downstream demand remained weak. Overall, the market still showed a pattern of weak supply and weak demand. In the short term, lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums, and close attention should be paid to changes in secondary lead operating rates in late March and shifts in downstream purchasing strength.

[Weekly Operating Rates in the Aluminum Processing Industry: China's Aluminum Processing Sector Sees Modest Growth Amid Peak Season Demand] This week, the weekly operating rate of leading downstream aluminum processing enterprises in China edged up 1 percentage point WoW to 62.9%.

SMM Nickel, March 20: Macro and Market News: (1) The Party Committee of the People's Bank of China held an enlarged meeting on March 18, which stated that it would continue to effectively implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy, firmly safeguard the stable operation of financial markets such as equities, bonds, and foreign exchange, and advance legislative formulation and amendments including the People's Bank of China Law and the Financial Stability Law. (2) The interest rate futures market priced in only 5.5 basis points of US Fed interest rate cuts this year, and bets on rate hikes began to emerge. Spot Market: On March 20, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel rose by 3,000 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average price of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 6,550 yuan/mt, down 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the mainstream China electrodeposited nickel brands were quoted at -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) staged a sharp rebound, closing the morning session at 134,780 yuan/mt, up 1.50. Yesterday, nickel prices once fell below the 130,000 yuan mark, as trades on expectations of a global economic recession triggered by escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East put the metals complex under pressure overall. Nickel prices then took the lead in rebounding sharply, recovering to around 135,000 yuan/mt in the morning session. Short term, sentiment from the macro perspective may continue to dominate the market, and nickel prices may maintain wide swings.