[SMM Nickel Express] August 4 – In the high-grade NPI market today, the divergence between bulls and bears widened. The futures rally fueled the sentiment to hold spot prices firm, with some enterprises raising their offer prices, and bullish sentiment emerged.

[SMM Titanium Spot Flash: Titanium Concentrates Oversupply Pattern Unchanged, Weak Market Continues] SMM August 4: The mainstream 46% titanium concentrate was quoted at 1,250 yuan/mt today. Low-priced imported ore continued to impact, Panxi associated supply passively increased, while real estate chain demand remained sluggish, and downstream buyers were on the sidelines, delaying purchases. Short-term prices continued to be under pressure.

In July 2026, TiO₂ prices fell by RMB 1,900/mt from early-month levels, with inventories rising 23.26% MoM despite a slight output drop. Sponge titanium prices declined by RMB 3,000/mt, as output grew 5.45% MoM and demand remained weak. Export momentum softened amid summer lulls and stricter controls. Both markets are expected to stay under pressure in the near term, with a bearish near-term outlook.

Today,the DCE iron ore futures showed weakness today. The most-traded DCE I2609 contract closed at 699.5 yuan/mt, down 0.43% from the previous trading session. Spot prices at Qingdao Port rose by 4–9 yuan/mt from the prior trading day. Traders offered actively, steel mills purchased mainly on a need-to basis, and overall spot trading was moderate.

Summary: August 4: H200 actual transactions at 115,000–125,000 yuan/unit, with a cargo owner confirming a 130,000 yuan/unit deal; a batch quote of 256 units at 135,000 yuan/unit questioned as self-circular reselling; 128 units low-price long-term agreements (98,000/96,000 + intermediary) questioned as fraudulent; high-end computing power procurement converges with bulk commodity trading, as false supply information disrupts the market; construction warming up for 5090 reference design and Pro 6000D; unclear penalty and deposit rules for futures contract breaches draw attention; a computing power company confirms no more leasable resources.

Today, iron ore futures trend was sluggish. The most-traded DCE I2609 contract closed at 699.5 yuan/mt, down 0.43% from the previous trading session. Spot iron ore prices at Qingdao Port rose by 4–9 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Traders were actively offering, while steel mills’ procurement was mainly need-based, and overall spot trading was moderate. Fundamental side, iron ore demand saw a slight short-term recovery. According to SMM statistics, this week (Aug 1 – Aug 7), the hot metal impact from blast furnace maintenance was 1.3736 million mt, down 112,200 mt WoW. Next week (Aug 8 – Aug 14), the hot metal impact from blast furnace maintenance is expected to be 1.4252 million mt, up 51,600 mt WoW. Against the narrative of recovering demand, support for iron ore prices strengthened. Short-term iron ore prices may primarily move sideways.

Prices for AISI 304 stainless steel cold-rolled coils edged higher across Asian markets, supported by upstream mill price hikes and increased spot market activity, with cost factors underpinning prices despite sluggish end-buyer demand. Chinese export offers rose approximately US$30/ton week-on-week, driven primarily by climbing raw material costs and improved procurement from Southeast Asia. However, elevated domestic inventory in China continued to exert downward pressure on spot prices. On the raw materials front, Indonesian NPI prices edged up largely due to new export inspection regulations implemented by Indonesian customs, which have disrupted the flow of nickel product exports.

Chinese Taiwan's upstream stainless steel mills announced August price increases of NT$1,500/ton for 300-series products, but the first week following the adjustment saw chaotic market conditions with actual transaction prices broadly reverting to July levels. Sluggish overall demand and expectations of further mill price adjustments have prompted operators to adopt a cautious stance, prioritizing inventory reduction and cash flow preservation.

[ SMM Rare Earth Afternoon Transaction Comment ] Quoting activity for Pr-Nd oxide is low, some traders continue to sell at low prices, and purchase willingness of downstream metal plants remains poor; quotes for gadolinium oxide are as low as 207,000 yuan/mt, and some metal plants indicate their intended price is 205,000 yuan/mt; inquiries in the Pr-Nd alloy market remain sluggish, and though quotes from metal enterprises are relatively firm, actual transaction performance is poor, with a stalemate in the tug-of-war between upstream and downstream; inquiry activity in the gadolinium-iron alloy market remains scarce, and quotes further decline to 195,000–200,000 yuan/mt.

On August 4 China's steel export prices were broadly steady. Flat-product export prices held flat day on day, with HRC transactions at 479-483 USD/tonne; domestic futures had corrected too quickly of late and overseas enquiries increased, but actual bid levels remained low and concluded business was limited. Billet export FOB prices were steady, with Jiangyin port offers at 447-452 USD/tonne, as fierce competition kept export offers under pressure while overseas buyers showed little urgency and mostly stayed on the sidelines. Rebar export offers at Tianjin port were steady with transactions at 474-480 USD/tonne; enquiries improved slightly today but overall volumes did not pick up markedly, and some South China mills kept long-product export offers high with little business done.