[Mixed Bullish and Bearish Factors in the Market, SHFE and LME Zinc Prices Rose] At the beginning of the week, LME zinc continued last week's downward fluctuation trend; subsequently, the US dollar index dropped back slightly from its highs, and LME zinc rose; however, the ongoing escalation of the Middle East conflict, coupled with the renewed strength of the US dollar index, constrained the upside room for zinc prices, and the center of LME zinc gradually pulled back......

[Price Review] During the week, silver prices remained in the doldrums. In China, the Ag (T+D) contract on the Shanghai Gold Exchange broke below the support level of 18,000 yuan/kg, while LBMA silver prices kept probing lower after falling below $75/oz. From a macro perspective, escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East pushed oil prices to repeated new highs, while intensifying inflation concerns significantly cooled expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts and delayed the timing of the first cut to year-end. The simultaneous strength in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields became the core factors suppressing silver prices. On Wednesday local time, the US Fed announced that it would keep interest rates unchanged. In the statement released that day, it noted that the impact of the Middle East situation on the US economy remained uncertain and that uncertainty surrounding the US economic outlook was still elevated. In addition, speculative demand and ETF holdings continued to decline, and market sentiment kept cooling. As for the gold/silver ratio, because silver posted a deeper decline, the ratio continued to rise. As of March 18, the LBMA gold/silver ratio had climbed to 63, a recent high. [Important Data] Bullish: US preliminary March one-year inflation expectations came in at 3.4%, above expectations and unchanged from the previous reading Bearish: US API crude oil inventory for the week ended March 13 increased by 6.556 million barrels, above expectations and the previous reading US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ended March 13 increased by 6.156 million barrels, above expectations and the previous reading Data and macro releases to watch next week include: Continued hawkishness from the US Fed, the ECB rate decision, US inflation/employment data, COMEX silver delivery, together with the Boao Forum and geopolitical risks On March 19, the FOMC kept rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, raised its 2026 PCE forecast to 2.7%, and expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts cooled sharply. US-Iran Situation: As of March 19, the military strikes by the US and Israel against Iran had entered their 19th day, with high-intensity confrontation, no sign of a ceasefire, and the conflict spreading to multiple Gulf countries. In terms of the current impact on precious metals, financial suppression outweighed safe-haven demand. Against the backdrop of surging inflation expectations, the US dollar and US Treasury yields continued to rise, the timing of US Fed interest rate cuts was delayed, and silver prices were suppressed. [Price Forecast] Silver prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the doldrums amid the interplay between macro disruptions and fundamentals. On the macro front, caution is still warranted over the risk of continued US dollar strength and heightened volatility from any further escalation in the US-Iran conflict. On the fundamentals side, as PV export rush orders gradually approached their end, rigid demand for raw material procurement by silver nitrate enterprises declined in late March, weakening support from industrial demand. In China's spot market, as investment demand and rigid industrial demand softened, coupled with replenishment from imported silver ingots, circulating supply of silver ingots in the spot market became ample, and suppliers generally lowered spot premium quotes to facilitate transactions. The abnormally high spot premiums in China's spot market will come to an end. At the same time, profitability on imported silver ingots will also decline sharply, and spot premium quotes in actual spot silver ingot transactions are expected to return to rational levels.

SMM March 13: This week, China’s domestic tungsten market exhibited high-level oscillations with intensified supply-demand competition. Multiple mines put products up for auction during the week, but transactions were bleak.As of March 13, tungsten prices remained largely stable, yet market sentiment became extremely divided.

[Macro Disturbances Coupled With Rising China Inventory Weighed on the Centers of Both SHFE and LME This Week] At the beginning of the week, Trump stated that the conflict in Iran was basically over, and the US dollar index fell sharply, pushing the center of LME zinc higher; subsequently, market uncertainty intensified, some funds exited, and LME zinc came under pressure......

[Price Review] This week, silver prices continued to consolidate in a fluctuating range, but the war-driven rise in crude oil prices boosted US dollar demand again, putting pressure on precious metal prices and leaving the market relatively weak. Although during the week silver prices on the SGE tested the support level of 20,000 yuan/kg, and LBMA silver briefly fell below $80/oz, both later rebounded, indicating moderate support on the downside. This round of market movement was mainly affected by fading expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts and the still-uncertain direction of geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Market participation in the silver market declined, and short-term fluctuations narrowed somewhat. Gold/silver ratio, both gold and silver prices showed a consolidating fluctuating trend this week, and the gold/silver ratio also fluctuated around 60. [Key Data] Bullish: US February seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls: -9.2, below expectations and the previous reading US API crude oil inventory for the week ended March 6: -1.678 million, below expectations and the previous reading Bearish: US January retail sales MoM: -0.2%, above expectations and below the previous reading US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ended March 6: 382.4, above expectations and the previous reading Data and macro releases to watch next week include: The US Fed will announce its March interest rate decision and economic outlook, including the dot plot. The market generally expects the US Fed to keep rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range, and the probability of an interest rate cut has fallen to near zero. Fed Chairman Powell will hold a press conference after the rate decision to elaborate on the policy stance. US-Iran situation: Since the large-scale military action launched by the US and Israel against Iran on February 28, 2026, the conflict has lasted for more than two weeks. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced the highest level of combat readiness, and the Foreign Ministry explicitly ruled out the possibility of opening negotiations. The transmission effect through the energy channel (inflation) far exceeded that through other channels. Inflation concerns instead weighed on expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, and the high-interest-rate environment pressured non-yielding assets such as gold and silver. [Price Forecast] Silver prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend amid the contest between macro disturbances and fundamentals. The continuing impact of the sharp rise in crude oil prices in the short term has gradually been transmitted, while renewed strength in demand for the US dollar and US Treasuries, together with cooling expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, will keep precious metal prices under pressure in the short term.

The chrome ore market performed strongly in the first week after the Spring Festival. Although the March stainless steel tender prices announced by Tsingshan and TISCO on the alloy side were flat, falling slightly below previous bullish expectations, the ore sector was driven by both costs and supply, with futures and spot prices rising simultaneously. Traders hold an optimistic outlook on the future market, showing a clear attitude of supporting prices.

[Price Review] During the Chinese New Year holiday, overseas precious metals were affected by multiple factors including US macro policies and Middle East geopolitical conflicts. Silver prices showed a V-shaped reversal trend, falling first and then rising. As of the closing on February 23, spot silver in London closed at $88.17 per ounce, up approximately 13.8% compared to the pre-holiday closing price of $77.46 per ounce on February 13. A pre-holiday decline in US stocks, combined with weakened liquidity, dragged down overseas precious metal prices, which continued to fall in the early part of the Chinese New Year holiday week. Subsequently, the US released its Q4 GDP growth for last year, which fell short of expectations, leading precious metals to stop falling and rebound. Last Friday (February 20), the US Supreme Court ruled to repeal most of the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration last year, and Trump immediately announced an additional 10% tariff on all global imports to the US over the next 150 days. This news reignited market concerns about trade conflicts and economic downturn. Additionally, stalled US-Iran negotiations, which could lead to a worsening situation in the Middle East, stimulated safe-haven demand. Precious metals surged significantly during the session, recovering previous losses, with silver leading the gains sharply. After the Chinese New Year holiday this week, uncertainties around tariff policies and geopolitical impacts continued to ferment. Domestic silver prices opened higher and extended their strong upward trend. After SHFE deliveries concluded on Thursday, spot cargo flowed out, and previously imported crude silver materials entered the market after processing, temporarily alleviating the tight supply of national standard silver ingots. Approaching the weekend, silver prices showed some weakness in continuing their rally. Regarding the gold/silver ratio, as silver led the precious metals gains during the holiday against a backdrop of low inventory levels, the gold/silver ratio dropped back slightly below 60 times. As of February 25, the LBMA gold/silver ratio pulled back to about 57 times. [Important Data] Bullish: US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending February 13 were -9.014 million barrels, lower than the previous value and expectations. The final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for February was 56.6, lower than the previous value and expectations. Bearish: US initial jobless claims for the week ending February 14 were 206,000, lower than the previous value and expectations. The US core PCE price index annual rate for December was 3%, higher than the previous value and expectations. US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending February 20 were 1,598.9, higher than the previous value and expectations. Data and macro news releases to focus on next week include: This Friday, the US will release the January core PCE price index, the inflation indicator most closely watched by the US Fed, which will directly impact monetary policy expectations. On March 6 (Friday) at 21:30, the US will release the February seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls data and unemployment rate, key indicators for assessing the US labour market conditions and the US Fed's policy direction. Next week, Fed Chairman Powell and several governors and voting members will deliver speeches, requiring attention to their latest statements on inflation, the job market, and the impact of tariff policies. U.S.-Iran situation: The third round of indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran was held on February 26, with both sides reaching consensus on the guiding principles for negotiations, but core disagreements remain. The U.S. military has deployed two aircraft carriers to the Middle East, and the period from March to July 2026 is a high-risk window, requiring vigilance against risks of negotiation breakdown or escalation of military friction. [Price Forecast] Silver prices have ended the wild swings in the short term. As London silver prices break through the 50-day daily average and stabilize above key support levels, bulls are expected to return to the market. Overall, overseas silver prices may move sideways next week, but risks of high fluctuations due to further escalation of U.S.-Iran negotiation outcomes and Trump's tariff policies still require caution. On the domestic spot price front, despite robust downstream demand, previously imported crude silver and large ingots have been processed and refined and are gradually entering the market. Some suppliers have slightly lowered their premium quotes, and further narrowing of domestic silver ingot premium is expected.

Holiday Price Review: Anode Material Prices Maintained a Stable Trend. During the Chinese New Year holiday, domestic anode material prices continued the pre-holiday stability pattern, with no significant fluctuations observed.

【SMM Morning Brief Nickel 2.24】During the 2026 Chinese New Year holiday (February 15 to February 23), the domestic SHFE nickel market was closed, while LME nickel prices showed a rebound. The nickel sulphate market was relatively quiet during the holiday, with purchasing and sales activities largely halted. On the production side, some producers maintained operations, while others suspended production for maintenance.

I. Cobalt Price Review During Chinese New Year During the 2026 Chinese New Year holiday (February 15 to February 23), domestic refined cobalt electronic night session trading saw prices rebound slightly from previous lows. The spot market was relatively sluggish due to logistics suspensions. Overseas prices showed divergence: the low end of standard-grade refined cobalt remained stable, while the high end increased by $0.1/lb; both low and high ends of alloy-grade refined cobalt rose by $0.3/lb and $0.4/lb, respectively. CIF China cobalt hydroxide prices remained stable. II. Market Dynamics Cuba's fuel shortage will force Sherritt to suspend its nickel-cobalt operations: Due to ongoing tight fuel supply in Cuba, Sherritt International Corp. plans to suspend mining and processing operations at its Moa nickel-cobalt joint project and has already scaled down operations ahead of schedule, with suspension expected in the short term. Planned maintenance will be conducted during the shutdown. Failure to secure fuel deliveries is the direct cause of the suspension; the company is communicating with relevant parties and evaluating alternative input sources. The project, in partnership with state-owned General Nickel Company SA, typically ships semi-finished products to a refinery in Alberta, Canada, which has an integrated capacity of approximately 38,200 mt. However, this production accounts for a relatively small share of global nickel supply, so the impact on the international market is limited, though it will affect the company's finances and Cuba's economy. Meanwhile, Energas SA, an energy joint venture in which Sherritt holds a one-third stake, continues normal operations, supplying natural gas for power generation to Cuba's power grid, unaffected by this incident. Overall, the suspension reflects the direct constraints of Cuba's long-term economic and energy crisis on industrial projects. Sumitomo's Madagascar nickel-cobalt project shuts down due to cyclone damage: Japan's Sumitomo Corporation stated on February 18 that its Ambatovy nickel-cobalt project in Madagascar was shut down after Tropical Cyclone Ghezani hit the island last week, causing facility damage. Operations were suspended immediately once signs of the cyclone became apparent, with safety as the top priority, the company said in a statement. It added that a detailed assessment of the damage, including equipment conditions and the impact on revenue, is currently underway. Sumitomo will work to identify the extent of the losses as soon as possible and collaborate with relevant parties to implement appropriate recovery and reconstruction measures, the statement added. A company spokesperson said the timeline for restarting operations is undetermined and assessing the extent of the damage is expected to take several weeks. Ambatovy is owned by Sumitomo, with state-owned Korea Mine Rehabilitation and Mineral Resources Corp (KOMIR) producing approximately 28,000 mt of nickel and about 2,500 mt of cobalt in 2024. III. Post-Holiday Outlook Supply side, cobalt raw materials from the DRC are still unable to be replenished in the short term, and enterprises are facing pressure from raw material shortages. Coupled with production halts at some enterprises during the Chinese New Year holiday, production plans have been reduced. Refined cobalt production in February is expected to remain low, and the overall supply of cobalt salts is projected to decline slightly. Demand side, prior to the Chinese New Year, some downstream ternary cathode precursor enterprises showed increased purchase willingness and active inquiries due to concerns about rising cobalt sulphate prices after the holiday. However, as logistics were about to halt at that time, actual transactions were relatively limited. With the resumption of logistics after the holiday and downstream enterprises gradually resuming production and restocking, demand is expected to be gradually released. Looking ahead, against the backdrop of continued support from raw material costs, phased tightening of supply, and phased recovery in demand, refined cobalt and cobalt salt prices are expected to resume an upward trend.