Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at a low of $1,965/mt, fluctuating upward during Asian trading hours; entering the European session, it touched a high of $1,981/mt, then gave back some gains towards the close, eventually ending at $1,968.5/mt, up 0.08%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,240 yuan/mt, dipping to a session low of 16,210 yuan/mt early on before edging up to a high of 16,315 yuan/mt, finally settling at 16,265 yuan/mt, up 0.15%. On the macro front: The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to a 43-year low. Middle East situation – Trump: Will allow Iran to conduct low-level uranium enrichment. May or may not attend the agreement signing on the 19th. The strait will fully open on Friday. Importantly, oil prices have dropped sharply while the stock market is rising. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and other departments issued a notice to launch a three-year campaign to tackle energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industries. SAFE: In May, foreign-invested enterprises' dividend and profit distribution expenditures increased seasonally, and foreign investors were net buyers of domestic stocks and bonds overall. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead reversed course and rebounded, with suppliers selling along with the market. Some offered wider discounts from last Friday, but some smelters, with low inventory, remained relatively firm in their pricing. Mainstream production region primary lead quotations against the SMM #1 lead average price were at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt, EXW. For secondary lead, smelters had divergent attitudes toward selling. Secondary refined lead quotations against SMM #1 lead were at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 125 yuan/mt, EXW. Downstream enterprises mostly turned cautious, with fewer inquiries; some temporarily focused on digesting inventories, and spot market transactions weakened. Inventory: On June 15, LME lead inventory decreased by 1,025 mt to 304,850 mt; as of June 15, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions totaled 67,700 mt, an increase of 3,000 mt from June 8 and an increase of 2,300 mt from June 11. Lead price forecast today: Last week, lead prices declined, and downstream dip-buying demand warmed up. Affected by secondary lead smelters holding back from selling and their high quotes, purchasing demand shifted significantly to EXW primary lead cargoes. At present, Henan smelters are still shipping on order. Yesterday, the SHFE lead 2606 contract completed delivery, with suppliers shipping to delivery warehouses in a concentrated manner, and social inventory increased as expected. Currently, both primary and secondary lead enterprises face maintenance and raw material shortages, with supply tight and uncertain. SMM believes that after the delivery, lead ingot inventory buildup pressure will gradually ease, and upside resistance to lead prices is expected to weaken.

[SMM Zinc Morning Meeting Summary: LME Inventory Running at Low Levels LME Zinc Fluctuates at Highs]: Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,591/mt, fluctuated upward after opening, touched a high of $3,623/mt, then pulled back all the way, dipped to $3,568/mt during the session, and finally closed up at $3,584.5/mt, up $1.5/mt, or 0.04%. Trading volume dropped to 11,715 lots...

At 4:15 PM on June 8, 2026, a ladle explosion at the SMS-1 steelmaking shop of Visakhapatnam Steel Plant (VSP) — operated by Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited (RINL) — unleashed molten metal at over 1,500°C onto the working platform below Caster-2. According to a preliminary report by India's Chief Inspector of Factories, the cause was a sudden release of gas entrapped within the liquid steel, which ruptured the ladle seal before the sliding gate was opened, triggering a catastrophic spill.

[SMM Zinc Morning Meeting Minutes: US and Iran About to Sign Peace Agreement, LME Zinc Stops Falling and Rebounds]: Last Friday, LME zinc opened at $3,526.5/mt. After opening, LME zinc briefly maintained a fluctuating trend, during which it dipped to a low of $3,511.5/mt, then started a fluctuating upward trend, touching a high of $3,590.5/mt near the close, finally closing up at $3,583/mt, up $57.5/mt, an increase of 1.63%...

Futures: Last Friday, LME lead opened at $1,953/mt, swung wildly during Asian trading and hit a low of $1,947.5/mt; entering the European session, LME lead fluctuated upward, touching a high of $1,968.5/mt in late trading, and finally settled at $1,967/mt, up 0.49%. Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,055 yuan/mt, dipped briefly to a low of 16,035 yuan/mt, then moved sideways, hitting a high of 16,125 yuan/mt near the close, and finally settled at 16,100 yuan/mt, up 0.28%. On the macro front: According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, US President Trump's approval rating among voters in rural America dropped to 50%, the lowest of his presidency. Middle East tensions--Trump: Iran deal reached, free passage through the Strait and US military blockade lifted. The PBOC released its financial statistics report for May 2026: M2 was flat while M1 rose; the incremental scale of aggregate social financing in the first five months reached 17.48 trillion yuan. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead continued to be in the doldrums, once again nearing the 16,000 mark. Suppliers were somewhat divided in their shipments, with quotations featuring both premiums and discounts. Inventories at smelters in major producing regions declined, and suppliers held prices firm when selling. Electrolytic lead from major producing regions was quoted at premiums of 0-100 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, EXW. In secondary lead, smelters offered limited cargoes, with some secondary refined lead quoted at premiums of 0-25 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead, EXW. Downstream enterprises maintained just-in-time procurement, mainly sourcing EXW cargoes from smelters, while transactions for warehouse cargoes in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai market were modest. Inventory side: On June 12, LME lead inventory decreased by 775 mt to 305,875 mt. As of June 11, total SMM lead ingot social inventory across five locations reached 65,400 mt, down 1,700 mt from June 4, and up over 700 mt from June 8. Today's lead price forecast: On the consumption side, lead-acid battery enterprises maintained relatively stable production. After the decline in lead prices, downstream enterprises bought the dip as needed, and considering possible mid-year book closing and inventory checks in late June, some downstream firms made advance purchases. On the supply side, primary and secondary lead enterprises saw both increases and decreases in production, with supply expected to show little difference. In-factory inventories at both types of smelters declined, easing the pressure to sell. In particular, heavy losses at secondary lead smelters discouraged them from offering cargoes. Spot lead is expected to continue being quoted at small premiums against SMM #1 lead, and if SHFE lead falls further, the possibility of spot prices exceeding futures cannot be ruled out.

Next week, the Chinese market will be closed for the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. SHFE and other exchanges will not operate night sessions on Thursday evening and will be closed all day on Friday. On the macro data front, China's May total retail sales YoY, China's May industrial value-added above designated size YoY, and the US May retail sales month-on-month rate are about to be released. Additionally, a key event will be the first policy meeting of the new US Fed chair since taking office. The market expects the June interest rate to remain unchanged, with greater focus on when the US Fed will start raising rates. On the LME lead side, the Middle East conflict recently reversed again, with overseas bulls withdrawing and bears adding positions. LME lead fell below all moving averages, reaching a new low in nearly one and a half months. Meanwhile, tightness in spot cargo in markets outside China persists. LME saw a backwardation structure again, with LME Cash-3M quoted at $4.97/mt. Next week, attention will be on the impact of the US Fed meeting on the US dollar index. Lead prices are expected to continue trading in the doldrums, with LME lead trading in the range of $1,915-1,975/mt. On the SHFE lead side, next Monday is the delivery day for the SHFE lead 2606 contract. Suppliers shipping to delivery warehouses will boost expectations of rising visible inventory, especially as SHFE lead bears add positions. Open interest in the most-traded contract has reached as high as 85,000 lots, putting lead prices under pressure. Notably, in-factory inventory at primary lead enterprises has declined, and secondary lead smelters are suffering severe losses. Fundamentals provide strong support, with the spread between futures and spot prices narrowing rapidly and a premium cannot be ruled out. Downside risk to lead prices is expected to persist, but there is a chance to dip and rebound. Next week, the most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade in the range of 15,850-16,300 yuan/mt. Spot price forecast: 15,900-16,150 yuan/mt. Demand side, production at lead-acid battery enterprises is relatively stable. After the lead price decline, downstream enterprises buy the dip as needed. Also, considering the potential for mid-year account closing and stocktaking in late June, some downstream players purchase in advance. Supply side, production at primary and secondary lead enterprises both increased and decreased. Supply differences are expected to be relatively small. In-factory inventories at both have fallen, reducing smelters' pressure to sell. Especially as secondary lead smelters suffer severe losses, their willingness to sell is low. Spot lead is expected to maintain small premiums (over SMM #1 lead) on shipments. If SHFE lead falls further, the possibility of spot prices exceeding futures cannot be ruled out.

Futures: Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,960/mt. In early trading, prices briefly fluctuated upward, reaching a high of $1,974/mt before bulls’ upward momentum faded and prices fluctuated downward. During the European session, the downward fluctuation continued, with prices touching a low of $1,942/mt. Near the close, prices rebounded quickly and settled at $1,957.5/mt, recording a small bearish candlestick, down $5/mt or 0.25%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,135 yuan/mt. As bears entered the market, SHFE lead prices fluctuated downward from early to mid-session, touching a low of 16,000 yuan/mt. Near the close, prices rebounded slightly and settled at 16,040 yuan/mt, recording a small bearish candlestick, down 180 yuan/mt or 1.11%. On the macro front: Trump canceled planned strikes on Iran tonight; the US-Iran agreement has entered the final drafting stage and is expected to be signed in Europe this weekend. US media disclosed behind-the-scenes negotiations on the US-Iran deal: three major differences have narrowed under Qatar’s mediation. Iran’s Foreign Ministry stated that no final conclusion has been reached on the US-Iran agreement. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US would withdraw funds from Iran’s accounts to compensate Gulf states for losses if necessary. The European Central Bank raised its three key interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled. The CME Group plans to launch round-the-clock crude oil and gold futures contracts. The State Administration for Market Regulation, together with the Cyberspace Administration of China and the National Railway Administration, held talks with seven third-party platforms involved in train ticket sales. “Ten-billion-yuan subsidies” are not truly 10 billion yuan—Taobao, JD.com, Pinduoduo, Douyin, and Xiaohongshu were summoned for talks. Kweichow Moutai Chairman Chen Hua stated the company has no plan for a stock split. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead rebounded after stopping its decline, with suppliers selling at prevailing prices. Some quotes were at wider discounts than yesterday, and mainstream primary lead smelters offered ex-works at parity with the SMM #1 lead average price. For secondary lead, smelters’ selling sentiment improved relatively, but quotes remained scarce, with secondary refined lead offered at premiums of 0–25 yuan/mt over the SMM #1 lead price ex-works. Downstream enterprises mainly made just-in-time procurement, with some purchasing under long-term contracts or drawing on inventory; overall purchasing enthusiasm was moderate, and spot market transactions were sluggish. Inventories: As of June 11, LME lead inventories decreased by 575 mt to 306,650 mt. Total social inventories of SMM lead ingots across five regions increased by 700 mt to 65,400 mt. Lead price forecast for today: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are weakening overseas consumption and export expectations. LME lead inventories remain at multi-year highs, and overseas lead prices are under pressure, dragging down the Chinese market. The downstream sector is entering the off-season, with battery enterprises conducting mid-year account settlements and stock takes; procurement is expected to contract going forward, making it difficult for the demand side to support higher prices. Supply side, some secondary lead smelters plan to cut production due to losses, while some primary lead smelters are in maintenance, combined with expectations for production resumptions at some secondary lead smelters, bullish and bearish factors are intertwined on the supply side, and lead prices are expected to show a volatile pattern in the short term.

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Easing US-Iran Tensions, LME Zinc Center Moves Higher]: Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,464/mt. It initially moved sideways along the daily average, dipping to $3,442/mt during the session. Entering the night session, bulls added positions, and LME zinc rallied all the way to reach a high of $3,534/mt near the end. It finally settled up at $3,525.5/mt, up $57/mt, or 1.64%. Trading volume fell to 14,639 lots, and open interest increased by 4,214 lots to 238,000 lots.

[Price Review] This week (6.8-6.11), silver extended its accelerated decline, with both international and domestic futures markets plunging sharply in tandem. The price center moved notably lower WoW, hitting a new low in nearly two months. The non-farm payrolls data triggered the first heavy sell-off: on June 5, the US May non-farm payrolls report showed an increase of 172,000 jobs, far exceeding the market expectation of 85,000; data for the prior two months were revised up by a combined 93,000, and the unemployment rate held at a historic low of 4.3%. Following the release, market expectations for US Fed rate hikes surged sharply, and silver immediately suffered a heavy blow. On June 10, the US May CPI data came out, up 4.2% YoY and 0.5% MoM. The inflation data further cemented market expectations that the US Fed would maintain high interest rates. Paired with renewed deterioration in the US-Iran conflict, with US forces striking Iran for two consecutive days, the US Fed was expected to have difficulty releasing dovish signals in the near term. Industrial demand side, the premium of standard silver ingots against TD mainstream quotations in the Shanghai market continued to rise WoW; mainstream quotations were generally at parity or with slight premiums, and most transactions settled in the range from parity against SGE TD to a premium of 10 yuan/kg. As silver prices plunged during the week, downstream inquiry activity was relatively active. Inventory side, downstream consumption recovered somewhat WoW, and some smelters showed lower willingness to sell due to falling prices, so social inventory of silver ingots in Shanghai and Shenzhen destocked overall. Gold/silver ratio side, as of June 10, the LBMA gold/silver ratio widened from 63.8 a week ago to 67.2, highlighting silver's greater weakness relative to gold under sustained macro pressure. [Important Data] Bearish US May non-farm payrolls rose by 172,000, far exceeding expectations, with labor market resilience surprising to the upside. US May CPI up 4.2% YoY, a three-year high, as inflationary pressures re-emerged. After taking office as Fed Chairman, Warsh set a clear hawkish tone, and subsequent official remarks continued to send tightening signals. India's silver import control policy remained in place, weighing on physical consumption demand. Bullish: Peru's energy crisis persisted, with a national state of emergency until year-end; 12 large mines have already implemented staggered production, and May silver output is expected to decline by 5%–8%. The global supply-demand gap remains, providing some floor support for silver prices. [What to Watch] June 16-17: US Fed June FOMC meeting and Warsh post-meeting press conference (key event) June 18: US May retail sales data June 20: University of Michigan preliminary June consumer sentiment index Key focus: Fed official speeches, latest developments in US-Iran negotiations. [Price Forecast] Silver is expected to maintain a pattern of hovering at lows and seeking a bottom next week, remaining under an overall high macro pressure environment. The Fed's FOMC meeting from June 16 to 17 will be the core focus next week, with the market closely watching Wash's speech content and the Fed's latest guidance on the interest rate path. If the Fed releases a clear signal of rate hikes, silver prices may dip further; if the meeting outcome leans dovish, silver prices could see a rebound from oversold conditions. On the domestic fundamentals side, downstream purchases have slightly recovered, pressure from spot selling at lows in the market has eased somewhat, and the social inventory of spot silver ingots is destocking overall. Since most enterprises remain cautious amid heavy fear of price declines, mainstream traded spot premiums are expected to remain in a range of parity to a 10 yuan/kg premium over SGE TD, and the market is unlikely to quickly shift to higher premiums in the near term.

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: US-Iran Tensions Cause Market Concerns, LME Zinc Plunges] Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,549/mt. Initially, after a brief uptick, LME zinc fell to a low of $3,520.5/mt. Subsequently, bears added positions, and LME zinc fell all the way to a low of $3,465.5/mt near the end of trading, finally closing down at $3,468.5/mt, down $77.5/mt, a decline of 2.19%. Trading volume increased to 17,248 lots, and open interest rose by 568 lots to 234,000 lots.