[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Indonesia nickel ore news continues to boost stainless steel futures, which hold up well On April 16, SMM reported that SS futures continued to hold up well. News related to Indonesian nickel ore continued to boost market sentiment, driving SS futures to maintain a fluctuating trend on the strong side. As of the morning close, the most-traded SS contract was quoted at 14,810 yuan/mt. On the spot market front, SS futures largely held firm at elevated levels. Although actual order transactions from downstream end-user clients remained lackluster, with a cautious stance still prevailing toward purchasing high-priced cargoes, some futures-spot arbitrage orders traded actively. Combined with some traders offering discounts on select specifications to facilitate shipments, the market was broadly confident and bullish on the outlook, and stainless steel prices are expected to remain firm in the near term. The most-traded SS futures contract strengthened and moved higher. At 10:15 AM, SS2605 was quoted at 14,798 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in the Wuxi area ranged from 30-230 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi held steady; for cold-rolled untrimmed 304/2B coil, the average price in Wuxi held steady and the average price in Foshan held steady; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in the Wuxi area held steady; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, Wuxi quotes rose by 100 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. The stainless steel market is currently in the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April." In the short term, macro tailwinds have helped restore confidence, and spot inquiry activity has picked up. However, cautious sentiment among downstream end-users has not dissipated, with purchasing still driven mainly by rigid demand and acceptance of high-priced cargoes remaining...

In recent years, spot premiums in the European zinc market have shown significantly greater volatility amid fluctuations in energy costs, regional supply-demand mismatches, frequent temporary smelter curtailments, and shifts in inter-regional trade flows. As one of Europe’s most important hubs for non-ferrous metals logistics, warehousing and spot trade, Rotterdam has long played a key role in the distribution, storage and circulation of imported refined zinc in Europe......

Today's SMM silver ingot spot transactions were mainly at parity or with slight premiums. Suppliers in the spot market showed normal willingness to sell, but overall consumption remained sluggish. In the early session, suppliers offered at TD+0-20 yuan/kg. Downstream purchase willingness was low, and the price spread between bids and offers was wide, with transaction prices still leaning toward parity. Traders were more inclined to consider registered warrant operations or securing backstop arrangements with banking institutions, and overall spot market transactions were sluggish.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, from the perspective of supplier behavior, wait-and-see sentiment was strong in the early session, with notable divergence in offers; subsequently, some suppliers chose to offload inventory, mainly considering that downstream consumption expectations weakened after sustained copper price increases, upside room for spot premiums was limited, and willingness to liquidate holdings strengthened, driving the overall premiums center downward. Supply side, attention should be paid to the outflow of unmatched warrants after the contract rollover; if warrants are released in a concentrated manner, this will further suppress spot premiums. Inventory side, SMM recorded social inventory of 282,800 mt, down 17,000 mt from Monday, with the destocking pace showing a slowdown compared to the earlier period. Overall, under the combined effects of strengthened willingness to sell among suppliers and weakened consumption expectations, coupled with warrant outflows, spot prices against the 2605 contract are expected to see a slight decline in premiums tomorrow.

SMM April 16 News: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 210 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 130 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 80 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 102,545 yuan/mt, down 360 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,455 yuan/mt, down 350 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory has now declined for 22 consecutive trading days, with tight supply being the main reason. Copper prices pulled back slightly and the contract rollover has already taken place. Downstream restocking appetite increased compared to yesterday, and suppliers held prices firm accordingly. Today, standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 130 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from yesterday, compared to 100 yuan/mt quoted against the next-month contract yesterday. Overall trading activity was better than yesterday. Today, the procurement sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong was 2.32, up 0.13 from the previous trading day, and the shipments sentiment was 3.6, up 0.03 from the previous trading day (historical data can be accessed via the SMM database). Overall, market trading activity picked up after the contract rollover, and premiums are expected to continue rising tomorrow.

Today, #1 copper cathode spot prices in North China against the front-month contract were reported at an average discount of 140 yuan/mt, with the average price down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 102,195 yuan/mt, down 330 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

Rio Tinto and Century Aluminum raised US billet premiums by around 12%, about 3 cents/lb. (around USD 110/t) above pre-war levels. Middle East disruptions have affected supply from the Persian Gulf, which accounts for about 20% of US imports, tightening domestic supply. The US Midwest premium has reached a record USD 1.1325/lb., while aluminum prices have risen over 10% since late February. Amid growing uncertainty, buyers are shifting to domestic sourcing, while producers are pushing for long-term contracts to secure pricing and supply.

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Macro Sentiment Improved, LME Zinc Rose] Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,340.5/mt. At the beginning of the session, LME zinc briefly dipped to a low of $3,336.5/mt. Subsequently, bulls increased their open interest, and LME zinc fluctuated upward throughout the session, reaching a high of $3,414/mt during the night session, ultimately closing up at $3,400/mt, up $60/mt, a gain of 1.8%. Trading volume increased to 12,425 lots, and open interest rose by 1,955 lots to 217,000 lots.

Premiums in the Tianjin region have consistently remained at a discount. How will premiums trend going forward?

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Indonesia Nickel Ore HMP Price Adjustment Drives Stainless Steel Futures and Spot Prices Higher On April 15, SMM reported that SS futures continued their strong upward trend. The market was further influenced by the adjustment of Indonesia's nickel ore HMP benchmark price, with SHFE nickel and stainless steel futures strengthening further. As of the midday close, the most-traded SS contract was quoted at 14,850 yuan/mt. Spot market side, driven by the dual factors of SS futures successively breaking through yearly highs and rising NPI costs following the adjustment of Indonesia's nickel ore HMP benchmark price, cost support for stainless steel strengthened significantly. Market sentiment returned to an actively bullish stance, and intraday quotes were raised. However, against the backdrop of rapidly rising prices, downstream end-users remained cautious. Although inquiries were active intraday and cargo pick-up for earlier orders was solid, actual transactions remained cautious. The most-traded SS futures contract strengthened. At 10:15 AM, SS2605 was quoted at 14,810 yuan/mt, up 220 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi ranged from 10-210 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi rose by 50 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled untrimmed 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi rose by 200 yuan/mt and in Foshan by 100 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi rose by 200 yuan/mt; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils in Wuxi rose by 150 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan remained stable. The current stainless steel market is in the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April." In the short term, macro...