Using the Energy Fuels-VAC merger as a lens, this article analyzes the U.S. playbook of acquiring de-risked, international rare earth assets. Despite sovereign backing creating a $110/kg price floor for non-Chinese supply, structural bottlenecks in heavy rare earth refining and limited market share (~15%) mean China’s dominance remains unshaken in the near term.

I. Japan Market This week, Japan MJP aluminum ingot spot premiums showed a continuous downtrend, with the average price at $384/mt on June 19 pulling back to $380/mt by June 26. Although premiums kept dipping, some traders lowered their offers proactively while others held prices firm. The demand side exhibited restocking for rigid demand, with downstream enterprises purchasing as needed. Short-term restocking activity was moderate, but there was no large-scale concentrated stockpiling, and overall purchasing volume was mild. Currently, the market trading pace is slowing down, spot lacks a trend-driven upward driver in the short term, and premiums follow the futures to stay in the doldrums. II. US Market This week, US Midwest DDP aluminum spot premiums edged up, from an average of $110.2/mt on June 19 to $110.35/mt this Friday. US market fundamentals still provided support: two major demand-side increases were being released, with aluminum semis demand for AI computing data centers surging, coupled with the concentrated commissioning of new production lines at NEV manufacturers such as Tesla, steadily boosting aluminum consumption for automotive lightweighting, keeping the digestion pace of domestic aluminum ingots high. The supply side faced constraints, with Middle East geopolitical disturbances disrupting ocean shipments of aluminum ingots, arrivals growth from outside China consistently lagging downstream demand growth, and domestic inventory continuing to destock, supporting premiums to stay high. However, the pressure logic for the outlook is gradually emerging: LME aluminum prices have already fallen to a staged low, cross-regional arbitrage windows remain open, and arrivals of aluminum ingots flowing into the US market will gradually increase. Coupled with this week’s premiums having stopped rising and weakened slightly, the tight supply-demand situation will marginally ease as external supply replenishes. It is anticipated that US spot premiums will stay high but face pressure going forward, with upside room essentially capped and a pullback adjustment possible. III. Thailand Market This week, Thailand spot premiums rose from $320/mt last Friday to $323/mt this Friday. Affected by the decline in aluminum prices, some traders raised their offers. However, the upside momentum was weak, and the trading atmosphere remained sluggish. Local downstream users only maintained a hand-to-mouth purchase pattern for rigid demand, with low willingness for large-scale stockpiling. Meanwhile, continuous arrivals of aluminum semis exports from China, with large volumes of low-priced fabricated products flowing into the Southeast Asian end-use markets, directly diverted import orders for primary aluminum ingots and significantly squeezed local aluminum demand. [Data source statement: Other than publicly available information, all data are based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are processed by SMM. For reference only, and do not constitute decision-making advice.] Data source: SMM

This week, ferrous metals fell continuously. During the week, there were many disturbances from unverified market rumors, but overall macro sentiment was weak, and expectations of rate hikes outside China continued to weigh on commodity sentiment. Earlier, rumors of a strike at BHP caused a slight rebound in iron ore; in the latter half of the week, Tangshan issued a notice on the "Tangshan Industrial Source Emission Reduction Plan for H2 2026," and combined with post-holiday inventory accumulation of the five major steel products, market sentiment was weak, and ferrous metals fell again. In the spot market, the off-season characteristics for end-users became more evident, market demand continued to weaken. While spot prices remained relatively firm, the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat, and positions in both futures and spot markets were unwound. Transactions were concluded at prices below market levels, further dragging down market prices......

This week, the overseas rare earth market remained stable overall. Quotes for cerium oxide, lanthanum oxide, Pr-Nd oxide, dysprosium and terbium oxides, and corresponding metals on FOB/CIF terms were largely steady. The mild adjustments in China’s domestic prices had not yet been transmitted outside China, with sluggish trading and continued shrinkage in deliveries. On the project front, the focus was on building non-China supply chains in the West: Australia’s Iluka Eneabba refinery secured a A$1.65 billion federal non-recourse loan and signed a four-year, 1,200 mt magnetic material rare earth offtake agreement with an unnamed global automaker; US-based Energy Fuels planned to acquire German magnetic material producer VAC for $1.9 billion, complemented by a combined $1.45 billion dual-line loan from the US Strategic Capital Office and the Department of Defense to expand capacity at its White Mesa facility; Canada’s Ucore shipped NdPr oxide samples with 99.5% purity for downstream qualification; in South America, Aclara received environmental approval for its Penco project in Chile; local processing projects in Nigeria and South Africa also advanced simultaneously.

Nickel Salt Prices Remain Weak, Intermediate Product Coefficient Under Short-Term Pressure

Spot market this week (6.22-6.26), SMM #1 lead price drifted lower, declining for consecutive days initially before rebounding slightly on Friday. Coinciding with the dual periods of mid-year and month-end, downstream battery factories concentrated on inventory counting and account closing, with strong wait-and-see sentiment. Just-in-time procurement was limited, and overall spot order trading remained weak. By region, Henan smelters mainly focused on long-term contract deliveries. Traders' quotes showed significant divergence, with spot orders against the SHFE lead 2607 contract at a discount range of 150-80 yuan/mt. At the weekend, the discount narrowed slightly to 130-100 yuan/mt, and only low-priced cargo saw sporadic transactions. Hunan smelters continued to widen discounts to move goods, with spot order discounts expanding from 30-0 yuan/mt to 80-50 yuan/mt. Small-brand lead discounts reached as high as 100 yuan/mt, and market transactions were limited. Jiangxi smelters had tight supply, and quotations maintained a premium structure throughout, with the premium raised from 80 yuan/mt to 100 yuan/mt and remaining stable.

SMM June 26: This week lead prices drifted lower. At the start of the week, mainstream secondary refined lead was offered around parity with SMM #1 lead, with tax-exclusive sources at lower levels; downstream resumptions saw only long-term contract deals. Mid-week, smelters held back from selling and offered sparingly, with only sporadic need-based purchases. At the weekend, the holding-back sentiment intensified, and a few spot orders rose to a premium of 25 yuan/mt. Month-end, downstream players waited on the sidelines for new-month long-term contracts, leaving spot trades sluggish throughout the week. As of June 26, large domestic secondary lead enterprises recorded a per-mt loss of 539 yuan, while small and medium secondary smelters saw losses widen to 740 yuan/mt. Continued weakness in secondary lead prices, coupled with persistently high raw material costs for waste lead-acid batteries, deepened smelter losses WoW. Going forward, although some secondary lead smelters are expected to resume production, ongoing losses and scrap battery raw material supply constraints have led to coexisting reductions and suspensions in the market. Overall secondary lead supply scale next week is expected to be basically flat WoW, and the premium/discount range for secondary refined lead against SMM #1 lead is expected to stay between a discount of 50 yuan/mt and a premium of 50 yuan/mt.

This week, nickel prices experienced a sharp drop triggered by macro tightening expectations and a supply-side policy reversal. At the beginning of the week, nickel prices were still trading around 136,000 yuan/mt, but were subsequently pressured by a steadily rising US dollar index and higher US Treasury yields, which weighed on base metals prices. Adding to this, market rumors that Indonesia would significantly increase its full-year RKAB nickel ore quota reversed the previous supply contraction narrative of "quota tightening." Under the dual impact of macro and policy shocks, nickel prices fell below multiple support levels, including 130,000 and 127,000 yuan/mt. As of Friday, the cumulative weekly decline was nearly 6%, marking the largest weekly drop in recent months; LME nickel dropped to $16,700/mt, with a weekly loss of about 5%. In the spot market, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel this week was 131,600 yuan/mt, down 8,250 yuan/mt WoW. The premium for Jinchuan nickel remained stable at 1,300-1,500 yuan/mt, while mainstream electrodeposited nickel discounts were in the -400 to -300 yuan/mt range. Affected by the steep decline in futures prices this week, downstream point-price activity was active and trading improved. On the macro front, the biggest headwind this week came from the strong hawkish signal sent by the US Fed's June FOMC meeting. On June 18, the Fed left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, marking the fourth consecutive pause in interest rate cuts. The Fed's Summary of Economic Projections raised the median forecast for the federal funds rate in 2026 to 3.8% from 3.4% in March. This hawkish pivot boosted the US dollar index and pushed US Treasury yields higher, exerting significant pressure on base metals. Domestically, China's LPR quotes on June 22 remained unchanged, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year and above LPR at 3.5%, continuing expectations of pro-growth policies. On the inventory front, Shanghai bonded zone inventory this week stood at about 2,700 mt, flat WoW. China's social inventory was approximately 129,000 mt, up 2,700 mt WoW. Nickel prices are currently under triple pressure from an abrupt shift in policy expectations, resonance of macro headwinds, and persistently high inventory overhang. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in a core range of 125,000-135,000 yuan/mt next week.

[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Briefing] In terms of supply, coke producers still face cost pressure, constraining their production enthusiasm. Currently, most coke producers maintain previous production restriction levels, while their shipment pace is relatively fast, keeping inventory low. On the demand side, steel mills are expected to see a slight reduction in hot metal output, but their purchasing enthusiasm for coke remains good. However, the steel products market is in the off-season, steel mill profitability is poor, and emission-reduction production cut policies in Tangshan have dealt a blow to rigid demand for coke. In summary, the short-term coke market is likely to be generally stable with a slight rise, and the ninth round of coke price increases is still expected to materialize.

According to data from China Customs, in January-May 2026, China’s combined imports of refined lead and lead products totaled 248,443 mt, surging 291.06% YoY on a cumulative basis. The import window was wide open for most of H1, and overseas cargoes kept pouring in. Total imports had already exceeded the full-year 2025 level. On the export side, combined exports of refined lead and lead products in January-May amounted to only 20,197 mt, down 32.49% YoY, remaining at low levels.