HRC futures fluctuated downward today, with the most-traded contract closing at 3,275, down 0.37% MoM. Spot market side, market quotations remained largely stable with slight price cuts in some markets. Market transactions were relatively lackluster, dominated by rigid-demand purchases. In terms of supply, few new maintenance shutdowns were added this week, and coupled with the gradual production resumptions from earlier maintenance, supply showed an incremental trend. Demand side, futures and spot price trends diverged, and spot market purchasing enthusiasm was weak, mainly driven by rigid demand. Inventory side, Zhangjiagang port inventories accumulated 30,000 mt compared to pre-holiday levels, and affected by the holiday, destocking performance in some markets may fall short of ....

This week, stainless steel spot prices fell slightly more than production costs, further worsening the inversion between stainless steel mill prices and costs. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, based on raw material prices on the day, the full cost profit margin was -1.19% this week; calculated based on raw material inventory costs, the margin was -0.55%. Nickel-series raw material costs, high-grade NPI prices remained in the doldrums this week. Although nickel ore prices are currently holding firm and NPI traders are broadly bullish, SHFE nickel futures have been weak recently, while downstream stainless steel prices have struggled to rise. Stainless steel mills themselves are under heavy cost pressure and have shown low acceptance of high-priced raw materials, resulting in sparse market transactions recently; affected by this, high-grade NPI traders have faced considerable transaction pressure, and the price center edged lower slightly. As of this Friday, high-grade NPI with a grade of 10-12% fell by 2 yuan per nickel unit to 1,081.5 yuan/nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap market, stainless steel scrap prices were stable this week, and the decline in finished stainless steel prices did not transmit to the steel scrap market, while prices of substitute furnace charge also remained stable. Tightness in tax invoices eased, the economic advantage of steel scrap became more evident, and high stainless steel mill production schedules drove higher consumption, lifting market transactions and easing inventory pressure. However, finished product prices struggled to rise, limiting upside room for steel scrap prices, which are expected to remain stable in the short term. As of this Friday, the price of 304 off-cuts in Shanghai rose by 100 yuan/mt, with the latest quote at around 10,150 yuan/mt. Chrome-series raw material costs, high-carbon ferrochrome prices dropped back slightly this week. Although some ferrochrome producers recently reported maintenance and production cuts, and stainless steel production schedules for April remained high, leaving retail spot supply in the ferrochrome market relatively tight, stainless steel mills had built relatively ample ferrochrome raw material inventories earlier. Meanwhile, high port inventories of chrome ore recently caused some loosening in chrome ore spot prices. In addition, ferrochrome capacity has already reached a high level, the rainy season in south China is approaching, and ferrochrome producers outside China are resuming production. With ferrochrome producers lacking confidence in the outlook, ferrochrome prices still faced some downward pressure. As of this Friday, high-carbon ferrochrome prices in Inner Mongolia fell 25 yuan/mt (50% metal content) WoW to 8,625 yuan/mt (50% metal content).

In the spot market, high-priced long-term contracted cargoes arrived at ports in the early stage with high cargo receiving costs. Domestic traders showed a strong willingness to prop up prices, driving continuous hikes in chromite quotations. However, downstream demand remained sluggish. Coupled with persistently high shipments and a notable inventory build-up, selling pressure intensified, slowing the upward momentum of spot chromite prices.

Dalian iron ore futures rose in early trading today before slowly pulling back. The most-traded contract I2605 finally closed at 812 yuan/mt, down 0.49% from the previous trading session. Spot prices fell by about 2-5 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were mediocre in offering quotations, while steel mills restocked as needed; overall transactions in the spot market were limited. Fundamentals, according to the SMM survey, port inventories began to decline slightly this week, with total inventory across 35 ports nationwide down 610,000 mt WoW to 155.78 million mt, a decrease of 0.39%. Meanwhile, port pick-up volume increased by 110,000 mt WoW to 2.855 million mt. Although support below ore prices gradually strengthened along with the pace of hot metal production resumptions, supply side still faced the risk of further increases as weather-related disruptions eased and iron ore returning from the Middle East arrived in China. Overall, upward pressure on ore prices had not yet eased significantly, and with downside support gradually strengthening, prices were expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term.

According to SMM's statistics on February 27, the total bauxite inventory at ten domestic ports increased by 2.12 million mt from the previous week.

The chrome ore market performed strongly in the first week after the Spring Festival. Although the March stainless steel tender prices announced by Tsingshan and TISCO on the alloy side were flat, falling slightly below previous bullish expectations, the ore sector was driven by both costs and supply, with futures and spot prices rising simultaneously. Traders hold an optimistic outlook on the future market, showing a clear attitude of supporting prices.

[SMM Ferrochrome Daily Review: Chromium Market Remained Stable in the First Week After the Holiday, Trading Activity Was Moderate] February 27, 2026: Today, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged MoM from the previous trading day.

Today, iron ore futures were in the doldrums, with the most-traded contract I2605 ultimately settling at 748.5 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading session. Spot prices fell by 2-4 yuan/mt compared to the previous trading day. Traders showed moderate enthusiasm in offering prices, while steel mills had limited inquiries, resulting in a subdued spot trading atmosphere. The latest SMM data revealed that total inventories at ten key ports reached 118.87 million mt, up 1.80% WoW from the pre-holiday level. Overall supply remains relatively loose, with port inventories at high levels and the inventory buildup trend yet to show a clear turning point. On the demand side, daily average hot metal production continued to grow steadily, but given strong market expectations for environmental protection-driven production restrictions during the Two Sessions, iron ore's upside room is relatively limited. In summary, iron ore prices are currently more likely to fall than rise, and in the short term, prices may fluctuate rangebound.

According to an SMM survey dated 26th February, total iron ore inventories across the 10 major ports monitored by SMM reached 118.87 million tonnes, marking an increase of 2.13 million tonnes from the pre-holiday level. A divergence in stock levels was observed among the four main product categories: inventories of coarse fines and lump ore recorded a slight accumulation, whereas stocks of concentrate and pellets experienced a minor destocking.

SMM Alumina Morning Comment 2.26 Futures: The most-traded alumina 2605 futures contract opened at 2,879 yuan/mt overnight, hit a high of 2,883 yuan/mt, touched a low of 2,850 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 2,874 yuan/mt, up 4 yuan/mt from the previous day. Open interest increased by 8,601 lots to 314,000 lots. The phased tightness of spot cargo in certain regions provided some confidence to the market, but the industry surplus persists, and trading overall remains cautious. Technically, the closing price was above the MA5 (2,833.40), MA10 (2,838.10), and MA30 (2,795.20), indicating continued upward momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator's DIF (23.59) crossed above the DEA (17.07), sustaining a golden cross at low levels, with the histogram at 13.06. Alumina futures are expected to be in the doldrums in the short term. Industry Dynamics: 1) According to a report by Ghana Web on February 14, Ghanaian President Mahama announced that Ghana plans to stop exporting unprocessed ore by 2030. The President stated that this move aims to support local processing enterprises, enabling them to lead the government's flagship industrial development and job creation plan. On February 13, 2026, President Mahama emphasized the importance of halting the export of unprocessed resources in a speech delivered in Addis Ababa. He advocated for enhancing the capacity of local processing enterprises to increase production and strengthen the value chain. Ore Side: As of February 25, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite index was reported at $61.33/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea FOB average price was $37/mt, unchanged from the previous day. The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was $60/mt, flat from the previous day. The SMM Australia low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was $58.5/mt, unchanged from the previous day, while the SMM Australia high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was $54.5/mt, down $1/mt from the previous day. The Malaysia bauxite CIF average price was $47/mt, unchanged from the previous day, and the Malaysia bauxite CIF (washed) average price was $59/mt, flat from the previous day. The Ghana bauxite CIF price was reported at $73/mt, unchanged from the previous day. The bauxite CFR (Turkey) price was $71.5/mt, flat from last Friday. According to an SMM survey, during the Chinese New Year holiday, some domestic mine mouths halted shipments, and current supply is slowly recovering. However, bauxite inventory at various alumina refineries remains above safe levels, leading to weak purchase willingness from alumina refineries. Prices continue to be contested, and further downside room is expected. For imported ore, no spot transactions were heard; however, against the backdrop of declining ore prices, alumina refineries maintain cautious sentiment towards bauxite procurement. Absolute inventory remains high, and overall purchase demand is weak. Additionally, some alumina refineries in north China reported that, amid tightening environmental protection policies, current ore storage must strictly comply with the requirement of using enclosed storage silos or covered stockyards. As a result, alumina refineries are controlling the pace and volume of bauxite transfers from port inventories to stockyards. It is expected that in the near term, imported ore prices will remain under pressure with fluctuations. SMM will continue to monitor the impact of domestic and overseas mine production, port shipments, and policy changes on prices. Spot prices: As of February 25, 2025, the SMM alumina index was reported at 2,618.49 yuan/mt, up 1.45 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Shandong alumina index was reported at 2,548.51 yuan/mt, up 3.17 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Henan alumina index was reported at 2,616.24 yuan/mt, up 0.52 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Shanxi alumina index was reported at 2,602.39 yuan/mt, up 0.38 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Guizhou alumina index was reported at 2,697.01 yuan/mt, up 2.25 yuan/mt MoM; and the SMM Guangxi alumina index was reported at 2,670.41 yuan/mt, up 0.74 yuan/mt MoM. Daily spot-futures price spread report: According to SMM data, on February 25, the SMM alumina index was at a discount of 234.51 yuan/mt against the latest transaction price of the most-traded contract at 11:30. Warehouse warrant daily report: On February 25, the total registered alumina warehouse warrants increased by 19,000 mt to 347,000 mt compared to the previous trading day. The total registered alumina warehouse warrants in Shandong remained unchanged at 17,701 mt, in Henan at 6,011 mt, in Guangxi at 12,613 mt, and in Gansu at 36,048 mt. In Xinjiang, the total registered alumina warehouse warrants increased by 19,000 mt to 275,000 mt compared to the previous trading day. Overseas market: As of February 25, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $311/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $20/mt. The USD/CNY selling rate was around 6.89, and the converted domestic mainstream port selling price was approximately 2,656.47 yuan/mt, which is 37.98 yuan/mt higher than the SMM alumina index price. According to SMM model calculations, the import window remained closed. Summary: Before the holiday, domestic alumina market inventory continued to rebound, and the oversupply situation persisted. Supply side, alumina refineries in various regions gradually resumed production, driving up the overall industry operating rate. Weekly production increased by 11,000 mt WoW. In terms of inventory structure, aluminum smelters' raw material inventory increased by 18,000 mt WoW due to the arrival of previously purchased spot cargoes. In-factory inventory at alumina refineries increased slightly by 10,000 mt WoW, as production remained relatively stable and daily shipments were maintained. Meanwhile, warehouse warrants continued to grow due to strong futures performance and active point-price deliveries. Recent shipments have remained generally stable, with relatively small fluctuations in shipments under long-term contract, increasing by only 2,000 mt. Due to maintenance initiated by some enterprises and the shutdown of roasting operations in north China, short-term production has declined, leading enterprises to consume their in-factory inventory. It is expected that alumina inventory will show a slight destocking trend in the short term. [Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.]