[SMM Weekly Review] This week (March 23–March 27), platinum prices rose first and then fell back. On the GFEX in China, the most-traded platinum futures contract PT2606 opened at 487.1 yuan/gram and closed at 493.05 yuan/gram, down 23.5 yuan/gram from the previous week's settlement price, a decline of 4.53%. The highest price during the week was 518.85 yuan/gram, and the lowest price during the week was 437.25 yuan/gram; the most-traded palladium contract PD2606 opened at 355 yuan/gram and closed at 358.2 yuan/gram, down 16.15 yuan/gram from the previous week's settlement price, a decline of 4.31%. The highest price during the week was 380.65 yuan/gram, and the lowest price during the week was 321.15 yuan/gram. In futures trading, the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 posted total weekly trading volume of 46,314 lots, total turnover of 22.397 billion yuan, and open interest of 16,467 lots, with open interest down 2,049 lots WoW. The most-traded palladium contract PD2606 posted total weekly trading volume of 24,537 lots, total turnover of 8.71 billion yuan, and open interest of 7,356 lots, with open interest down 492 lots WoW. Recently, as geopolitical conflict in the Middle East persisted, the precious metals market as a whole entered a stagflation panic mode. The specific logic was that the US-Iran conflict exceeded expectations, pushing up oil prices and thereby triggering concerns over imported inflation in the US, which in turn delayed the pace of interest rate cuts. Regarding the US-Iran conflict, on March 26, Trump announced a 10-day extension of the deadline for Iran's energy facilities; according to Iran's Tasnim News Agency, informed sources said Iran had concluded that the US negotiation statement was a "deception" project, with three real objectives under its cover: first, to deceive the international community by fabricating a posture of peace; second, to suppress global oil prices; third, to buy preparation time for an aggressive ground invasion launched from southern Iran. Regarding the independence of the US Fed, the US Department of Justice admitted that its investigation into Powell lacked evidence. On tariffs, after the US reciprocal tariff was overturned by the Supreme Court, policy uncertainty increased, and the Trump administration was seeking a more solid legal basis to reconstruct the tariff system: in the short term, using Section 122 temporary tariffs to fill the tariff-rate vacuum, and in the medium and long term, planning to rely on Sections 232 and 301 to maintain a high-tariff framework. In addition, the ruling that the tariffs were illegal triggered pressure for massive tax refunds, exacerbating the US fiscal burden and reinforcing expectations for a weaker US dollar. Supply side, Eskom will raise electricity prices by 8% for two consecutive years in the future, and recently frequent announcements of breakdowns in negotiations with the mine side have led some miners to shut down their international operations, triggering concerns over supply disruptions in platinum and palladium. In addition, continue to monitor changes in the US dollar index, which involve the relative strength of currencies such as the euro and the yen. Watch for details on the new manager announced by the LME. Monitor the latest changes in the Middle East political situation. The precious metals sector mainly benefited from the interplay between policy and the political environment under the US Fed's midterm election time window. Strategy-wise, a strategic bullish view on precious metals was still maintained, and pullbacks were seen as opportunities to build long positions for the medium and long-term. In the short term, as the risk of escalation in the Middle East conflict has not been eliminated, the strength of any rebound may remain limited, and prices may fluctuate at lows. Under high volatility in platinum and palladium, attention should be paid to position control. Due to the discontinuity between domestic and overseas market trading, the opening prices of platinum and palladium often refer to overseas night session conditions, and investors should pay attention to trading prices in international markets and stay alert to opening gaps.

Platinum prices remained in the doldrums today. The most-traded platinum contract, PT2606, on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed the morning session at 485.5 yuan/g, down 1.55. In the spot market, spot platinum was quoted at a discount of 5-7 yuan/g against PT2606, or at a discount of 3-5 yuan/g against the SGE sell-1 price. Spot discounts narrowed somewhat from the previous trading day. As for spot transactions, SMM learned that suppliers reported normal trading activity today. In the morning, a small volume of spot cargo traded at a discount of 7 yuan/g against the Guangzhou Futures Exchange price, while some traders reported more quotations around a discount of 5 yuan/g, with high-priced deals difficult to conclude. Downstream enterprises negotiated transactions based on order conditions, and overall trading in the spot market was moderate.

Platinum prices fluctuated downward today, with the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closing the morning session at 495.45 yuan/g, down 3.20%. In the spot market, spot platinum was quoted at a discount of 6-8 yuan/g against PT2606, or at a discount of 3-5 yuan/g against the SGE spot selling price 1. Spot discounts were basically flat from the previous trading day. As for spot transactions, SMM learned that suppliers reported weaker market consumption and limited transactions, while the price spread between intended prices and quoted prices remained relatively wide. Quotes at discounts of around 6 yuan/g on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange saw basically no transactions, and some traders purchased small volumes while seeking spot-futures price spread opportunities. Meanwhile, downstream enterprises reported fewer orders and limited purchases, with an overall wait-and-see stance prevailing. Overall transactions in the spot market were relatively subdued.

Platinum prices fluctuated upward today. In early trading, the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 on GFEX opened lower at 507.95 yuan/g, down 2.33 percent at the open, then fluctuated upward and closed the morning session at 523.85 yuan/g, up 0.73 percent. In the spot market, spot platinum was quoted at discounts of 7-9 yuan/g against PT2606, or at a discount of 2 yuan/g to parity against the SGE seller-1 price. Spot discounts were basically flat from the previous trading day. As for spot transactions, SMM learned that some traders reported more inquiries and actively purchased, while a few suppliers showed lower willingness to sell and held back cargo to maintain inventory. Downstream buyers negotiated purchases based on demand, and overall trading in the spot market was normal.

The US Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and platinum prices fell sharply today. In early trading, the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 on GFEX closed at 527.25 yuan/g, down 3.96. Spot side, spot platinum was quoted at discounts of 7-9 yuan/g against PT2606, or at discounts of 2 yuan/g to parity against the SGE sell-1 price, with spot discounts continuing to narrow slightly from the previous trading day. In terms of spot transactions, SMM learned that some cargo-holding traders actively offered quotes and reported relatively many inquiries. Downstream buyers negotiated purchases on price dips, while some enterprises said they had no plans for large-scale stockpiling for the time being due to the market's overall fear of further declines. Overall transactions in the spot market improved.

Platinum prices remained in the doldrums today. In early trading, the most-traded PT2606 platinum contract on GFEX closed at 546 yuan/g, down 1.54. In the spot market, spot platinum was quoted at discounts of 9-11 yuan/g against PT2606, or at premiums of 1-3 yuan/g against SGE sell 1, with spot discounts narrowing slightly from the previous trading day. As for spot transactions, SMM learned that some cargo-holding traders actively offered quotes and reported poor trading in early morning trade, with quotes at a 10 yuan/g discount against GFEX proving difficult to conclude. Later, as futures moved lower, transactions recovered, downstream enterprises purchased as needed, and overall trading in the spot market was normal.

Platinum prices stopped falling and rebounded today. In early trading, the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 558 yuan/g, up 5.27%. Spot side, spot platinum was quoted at discounts of 9-12 yuan/g against PT2606, or at premiums of 1-4 yuan/g against the SGE sell-1 price, with spot discounts widening from the previous trading day. In spot transactions, some traders followed futures to seek purchases of spot cargoes at larger discounts, while some flat-price spot cargoes, equivalent to discounts of 11-12 yuan/g against futures, were traded quickly. Downstream buyers mostly stayed on the sidelines today due to the sharp rise in futures, and overall trading in the spot market was moderate.

Platinum prices fell sharply today. In early trading, the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 528.95 yuan/g, down 4.18%. In the spot market, spot platinum was quoted at discounts of 7-9 yuan/g against PT2606, or at discounts of 3-5 yuan/g against the SGE Sell 1 price, with spot discounts narrowing slightly from the previous trading day. In terms of spot transactions, cargo-holding traders actively offered quotes. Downstream purchase willingness improved today due to order demand and lower spot prices. Some traders reported that platinum transactions were relatively good today, and overall trading in the spot market recovered somewhat.

Platinum prices remained in the doldrums today. In early trading, the most-traded PT2606 platinum contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 562.45 yuan/g, down 1.42. In the spot market, spot platinum was quoted at a discount of 10-12 yuan/g against PT2606, or at a premium of 2-4 yuan/g against the SGE sell-1 price. Spot discounts were basically flat from the previous trading day. As for spot transactions, cargo holders and traders actively offered quotes. Some traders said supply in the market was currently ample, while downstream clients had relatively sufficient inventory and mainly stayed on the sidelines. Coupled with a clear cooling in investment demand, it was extremely difficult to hold prices firm and conclude deals, and overall trading in the spot market was subdued.

Platinum prices surged sharply intraday. The most-traded PT2606 contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange opened at 560 yuan/gram in the morning session, then held up well, with the peak gain exceeding 6%. It eventually closed the morning session at 565.1 yuan/gram, up 4.74%. In the spot market, spot platinum was quoted at a discount of 9–12 yuan/gram against PT2606, or at a discount of 1–4 yuan/gram against the Shanghai Gold Exchange’s Sell 1. Spot discounts widened compared with the previous trading day. As for spot transactions, according to SMM, the notable intraday rise in platinum prices led downstream enterprises to mostly stay on the sidelines and temporarily suspend purchases. Some traders holding cargo said the bid-ask spread was wide, making deals difficult to conclude, and spot market trading turned weaker than yesterday.