Today, the iron ore futures market trended weaker. The most-traded I2609 contract on the DCE closed at 739 yuan/mt, down 0.27% from the previous trading session. Spot prices at Qingdao port fell by 1-3 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Traders were fairly active in offering, while steel mills mainly purchased on a rigid demand basis, resulting in weak overall spot trading sentiment. Short-term iron ore demand dipped marginally, but is expected to grow from next week. According to an SMM survey, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate among sampled steel mills was 88.90%, down 0.59 percentage points MoM. The daily average hot metal production of sampled steel mills was 2.4087 million mt, down 16,000 mt MoM. Next week, as environmental protection restrictions are lifted, most blast furnaces under maintenance will gradually resume production, and pig iron production is expected to enter a growth trajectory. However, limited by the high iron ore inventory itself and uncertainties in the market outlook, short-term iron ore prices are expected to struggle to break through overhead resistance and may continue to move sideways. [SMM Steel]

Rising compliance costs, a verification bottleneck, and tightening EU import quotas combine to reshape the competitive landscape for Asian stainless steel suppliers in Europe from 2026 onward. The EU CBAM entered its definitive implementation phase on January 1, 2026 — transitioning from a reporting exercise into a mechanism with real trade cost implications.

Indonesia has allowed exports of nickel pig iron (NPI) and other processed mineral products to resume after shipments were delayed by uncertainty surrounding testing requirements for associated rare earth elements (REE/LTJ). The government clarified that existing regulations only prohibit exports of pure rare earth elements (HS 28053000) and do not explicitly restrict processed mineral products containing trace REE. Relevant ministries have been instructed to establish technical guidelines covering REE definitions, content thresholds, testing standards and transitional arrangements, while exporters may continue normal shipments in the interim. The decision eases near-term concerns over export disruptions for Indonesian NPI producers and supports the continuity of downstream nickel shipments. However, regulatory uncertainty is likely to persist until the government finalises detailed REE content thresholds and inspection procedures

Indonesia's Presidential Staff Office convened a coordination meeting in Jakarta on July 27 with government agencies, law enforcement and industry to resolve shipment bottlenecks caused by the absence of rules on how much rare-earth content is permissible in mineral exports. Industry sources say alumina and nickel products, chiefly nickel pig iron, have been delayed. Indonesia is a major minerals exporter but only a minor by-product producer of rare earths, and no threshold has been set for their proportion in shipments of other minerals, leaving customs treatment unclear. Presidential Chief of Staff Dudung Abdurachman said he had received reports from several companies about export disruptions. Constrained shipments tighten near-term availability and reinforce seller reluctance in NPI.

Cleveland-Cliffs shares closed up nearly 16% on July 23 after the US steelmaker reported second-quarter results and issued upbeat forward guidance, with management pointing to automotive steel shipments at their highest level in two years and continuing to climb. The company guided to adjusted EBITDA of approximately $575 million for the third quarter of 2026, which it said would be its strongest quarterly result in three years, and indicated fourth-quarter profitability was expected to top that figure. Cleveland-Cliffs, the largest flat-rolled steel producer supplying the North American automotive sector, cited robust domestic demand and firmer pricing as drivers. Rival domestic producers Nucor and Steel Dynamics also posted share gains the same day. Separately, Cleveland-Cliffs and Nucor have publicly diverged on tariffs covering imported pig iron, a key raw material for US electric-arc-furnace steelmaking. The update comes as US steelmakers continue operating behind a 50% Section 232 tariff wall on most imported steel.

Today, iron ore futures saw relatively small fluctuations. The most-traded DCE contract I2609 closed at 741 yuan/mt, down 0.27%. Spot prices at Qingdao Port were basically flat compared with the previous trading day. In the morning, traders quoted prices actively, while steel mills purchased as needed, resulting in a moderate overall spot trading sentiment. Recently, the supply side has grown. According to SMM statistics, total global iron ore shipments were 27.82 million mt, down 10% MoM; cumulative shipments were up 1% YoY. Among them, shipments from Australia and Brazil both edged down; shipments from non-mainstream countries also slipped MoM, but those from India and Peru rebounded markedly. Meanwhile, China's total iron ore arrival volume was 30.32 million mt, surging 54% MoM, with cumulative arrivals up 5% YoY. Part of the growth was driven by the unloading of vessels previously delayed by typhoons. On the demand side, blast furnace pig iron production continued to trend lower steadily amid the off-season. On the sentiment front, the U.S.-Iran engagement in ceasefire talks caused oil prices to fall, but the iron ore market remained largely unaffected. Overall, iron ore prices may continue to consolidate in the near term. [SMM Steel]

Tariffs, certification regimes and quotas, not demand, have redrawn Indonesia's 4.7 million-mt export map since 2021: China's share has halved, India has quadrupled, and Europe's door has narrowed to a slab-shaped hole.

According to SMM market sources, several vessels carrying Indonesian nickel pig iron (NPI) have recently experienced export clearance delays as cargoes undergo additional testing for strategic mineral elements. According to market sources, export verification for certain mineral products is now accompanied by testing for 17 rare earth elements (REEs), uranium (U), and thorium (Th), extending surveyor report processing times and delaying the clearance of some NPI shipments. The tighter inspections were introduced following a recent enforcement case involving PT Putraprima Mineral Mandiri (PMM), PT Sucofindo, and the Pangkalpinang Customs and Excise Office. While the stricter inspections may continue to lengthen export documentation procedures and temporarily affect NPI shipment schedules, there is currently no indication that Indonesia's NPI production or overall export supply has been affected.

[7.27 Morning Briefing] The central bank announced that, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on July 24, 2026, the People's Bank of China conducted 500 billion yuan of MLF operations with a 1-year tenor via fixed quantity, interest rate tender, and multiple price bidding. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2609) plunged during the night session, but rebounded slightly by the morning close to 132,610 yuan/mt, up 0.2%. Nickel inventories have continued destocking recently, supporting a rebound in nickel prices; meanwhile, the US-Iran conflict and the evolving situation in the Strait of Hormuz have once again raised concerns over sulfur supply disruptions, and nickel prices are holding up well in the short term.

SMM Weekly Stainless Steel Futures Review — week of July 20–24, 2026. Middle East conflict escalation and tight Indonesian nickel ore supply keep the benchmark contract elevated near a two-week high, though it slips RMB 105/mt over the week of July 20–24 as social inventories tip back into a build.